Pages

Showing posts with label Syrian Free Army. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syrian Free Army. Show all posts

Thursday, 26 July 2012

Syria’s Gen. Tlass talks his fill in Saudi Arabia


Gen. Tlass during his interview with Asharq Alawsat in Jeddah

It is legitimate at times to blow your own horn -- in this case, ArabSaga’s.
Yesterday’s post was the first in the global media to report Syrian Gen. Manaf Tlass’ arrival in Saudi Arabia. It led off with his landing in Riyadh before flying to Mecca to perform the Umrah. And it hinted at the considerable significance of the visit a propos the Saudi drive to rid Syria of President Bashar al-Assad  (see the posts of July 25, July 19 and July 18).
Today, the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat confirms Tlass’ presence in the kingdom by running a full-length interview and a picture of him in Jeddah.
Significantly, the interview was conducted in person overnight by Asharq Alawsat’s editor-in-chief Tariq Alhomayed.
The newspaper’s front-page screamer reads, “Gen. Manaf Tlass to Asharq Alawsat: No to eradication and I don’t see Syria with Assad.”
All this confirms my impression that Saudi Arabia is grooming Tlass to lead the transition to post-Assad Syria.
Following are the crucial remarks Tlass makes in his all-embracing interview with Alhomayed:
On exiting Syria
My exit was a complex operation that took time and involved several parties. But I won’t say more so as to protect those who helped me. Maybe one day I will reveal how I exited Syria.
From the beginning, I disagreed with the regime on ways to handle the crisis. I self-distanced myself for a while as mistakes in handling the crisis multiplied. I had no decision-making input on the matter. That’s why I preferred to leave. I always sought not to take sides. I tried to help all sides come together to overcome the crisis. That’s why I didn’t give a reason for my defection.
I am not looking for authority. I am looking forward to security and stability for Syria. If I get the opportunity as an ordinary citizen to return and build Syria, then I’m ready. But I am not looking for authority.
I did not leave Syria to lead the transitional period. I am aware the phase is difficult. It will be difficult for any one person to assume sole responsibility for this chapter. Better if people on the ground in Syria and abroad cooperate to see this phase through.
I did not leave to play a role. I left because I refused to participate in a security solution. That’s the main cause of my exit.
I was in disagreement with the security agencies over their management of the crisis. I tried my best to solve it peacefully.
I discovered a security solution was their priority, so I turned my back on this environment because I thought the crisis was complex and needed a genuine solution.
What I saw was the uprising being met with nothing but firepower. I refused that. There were people calling for dialogue and wishing the regime would listen to them. But it did not. I was among those who preferred having a dialogue with the uprising. That’s why I stood aside.
I was aware that once a security solution is launched, abandoning it becomes costly. That’s why I always thought the security solution is suicidal to the regime.
I self-distanced myself the instant the uprising was met with violence.
I effectively defected at the onset of the crisis. I was a defector while still in being in Syria. A defector doesn’t have to make a televised declaration. I deemed myself a defector because the manner in which this regime managed the crisis ran counter to my convictions and aspirations.
I don’t have blood on my hands. I don’t see history ever suggesting I had blood on my hands. I judge myself before history judges me. And I don’t care about authority or office.
On Assad and the inner circle
It’s about a year (since I last met with Assad).
I wish he listened to me (and opted for a political solution).
Chances (of a solution that keeps him in office) have dissipated. His staying in office after the huge number of deaths is unlikely. I wish he didn’t opt for a security solution to stay in power. But the security agencies misled him. Mistakes in politics can sometimes prove deadly.
(The bombing that killed four of Assad’s inner circle) was proof of a major security lapse. The bombing took place in a very secure area. This shows the uprising is getting evermore sophisticated and that the regime needs to lend its ear (to insurgents). It will be catastrophic if it doesn’t.
Maher al-Assad would not have been at such a (inner circle meeting). His ranking does not entitle him to attend.
A coup d’état in Syria would be difficult in view of the regime’s structure. The coup should have taken place at the onset of the crisis.
It would be difficult for me to quantify support (for the regime by Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq and the Russians), particularly that I was not a member of the crisis management team.
But the longer the crisis lasts, the more difficult it would be for Syria to recover.
No, he (Assad) is not weak. People around him simply belittled the crisis and that’s why he chose the security solution.
On future plans
My plan is to settle securely with my family and children in a place that is safe. I have the same wish for the Syrian people.
If Syria is safe and if safety is what Syrians feel, I would be the first one back in Syria because I am a Syrian citizen. Safety and security are what I wish for all Syrians, including myself.
I wasn’t thinking of whether I would be politically active or not, or in terms of having a political mission, when I left Syria. But if this were to serve my country and Syria’s security and stability, I’d possibly play my role as an ordinary citizen. Anyone else wanting to help solve this crisis would do the same.
There are nationalist people in and outside Syria. I yearn for a consensus solution that forestalls Syria’s destruction.
There are many honorable people in Syria and beyond. I hope they would set a roadmap to end this crisis peacefully and at minimal losses to Syria.
This is because Syria is a country of coexistence bringing together different minorities and ethnicities.
Citizens need a secure expanse to heal their crisis-inflicted wounds. I look forward to genuinely nationalist and honorable sides that can nurse those wounds and prevent further degradation in Syria that puts its future at risk.
I wish Syria a roadmap to end its crisis.
I will connect with every honorable person wanting to build Syria -- whether in the Syrian National Council, the Free Syrian Army or inside the country.
I will link up with everyone to determine a roadmap to end this crisis. There are many in the regime whose hands are not stained with blood. They were not consulted. They should not be ostracized. We need to safeguard our national institutions as well as Syria the state.
Honorable Syrian citizens can’t possibly be ostracized from Syrian society. Our mosaic-like Syrian society will have to bring back to life the Syria of old and build on it. But no, I don’t see such (new) Syria with Bashar al-Assad (staying).
On Saudi Arabia
I am happy to be here in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
I am glad to have performed the Umrah.
Saudi Arabia is Syria’s friend. The regime committed a strategic mistake in squandering this relationship with Saudi Arabia. I expect Saudi-Syrian relations to always be close-knit because the two countries share the same faith, nationalism and pan-Arabism compass.
I flew in to greet our Saudi brothers and weigh up their propensity to help us draw the roadmap alongside our other friends in the region and the international community. We shall interconnect with each and everyone capable of helping Syria put a stop to this crisis.
I, of course, seize this occasion to thank the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, His Majesty King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, for giving me the opportunity to visit Saudi Arabia and for standing by and assisting the Syrian people.

Tuesday, 24 July 2012

“Chemical Assad” evokes Iraq’s “Chemical Ali”


View interactive map of Syrian chemical weapons and production sites

Ali Hassan Abdelmajid al-Tikriti was Iraq’s one-time defense minister and a first cousin of Saddam Hussein.
He was dubbed “Chemical Ali” for using chemical weapons against Iraqi Kurds in the 1987-1988 Anfal offensive culminating in the infamous attack on the Kurdish city of Halabja, which killed more than 5,000 people.
He was captured after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, tried, sentenced to death and hanged in 2010.
The Syrian regime yesterday started to lay claim to a new title for its president – namely, “Chemical Assad.”
It threatened to unleash its chemical and biological weapons if the country faced a foreign attack.
During a televised news conference, Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi stressed the weapons are secure and would only be used in the case of an external attack.
“No chemical or biological weapons will ever be used, and I repeat, will never be used, during the crisis in Syria no matter what the developments inside Syria,” he said. “All of these types of weapons are in storage and under security and the direct supervision of the Syrian armed forces and will never be used unless Syria is exposed to external aggression.”
It was the regime’s first acknowledgment that it possesses weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
“Given the regime's stockpiles of chemical weapons,” U.S. President Barack Obama said in a foreign policy speech to veterans in Reno, Nevada, “we will continue to make it clear to Assad and those around him that the world is watching and that they will be held accountable by the international community and the United States should they make the tragic mistake of using those weapons.”
State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Washington was “working with allies to monitor the situation” and to send the message to both Syria’s government and opposition about the importance of protecting unconventional weapons.
A “Reuters Factbox” on Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal says, “Syria appears to have acquired the ability to develop and produce chemical weapons agents including mustard gas and Sarin, and possibly also VX nerve agent…
“According to Global Security, there are four suspected chemical weapons sites in Syria - one just north of Damascus; the second near the industrial city of Homs; the third in Hama, believed to be producing VX agents in addition to Sarin and Tabun; and a fourth near the Mediterranean port of Latakia.
“Analysts have also identified the town of Cerin, on the coast, as a possible producer of biological weapons. Several other sites are monitored by foreign intelligence agencies and are listed only as suspect…”
The most senior Syrian politician to defect to the opposition told the BBC last week the regime will not hesitate to use chemical weapons if it is cornered.
Asked if he thought the Syrian president might use chemical weapons against the opposition, Nawaf Faris, ex-ambassador to Iraq, told BBC security correspondent Frank Gardner in an interview in Qatar that he would not rule it out, describing Assad as "a wounded wolf and cornered.”
The opposition Free Syrian Army (FSA) yesterday said the chemical arsenal had been moved in a bid to pressure the international community.
“We in the joint command of the Free Syrian Army inside the country know very well the locations and positions of these weapons,” the statement said.
“We also reveal that Assad has transferred some of these weapons and equipment for mixing chemical components to airports on the border.
“According to our information, the regime began moving its stocks of weapons of mass destruction several months ago ... to put pressure on the region and the international community.”
Maj. Gen. Adnan Nawras Salou, a Syrian Kurd who defected to the FSA and was chief of staff of the chemical warfare authority for five years until 2008, will no doubt have vital intelligence to share about the regime’s WMD. (See my July 15 post, “Syria’s ex-chemical war chief to head military opposition”).
Minimizing the dangers posed by Syria’s chemical weapons is a challenge of considerable complexity, Leonard S. Spector, deputy director of James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS) at the Monterey Institute in Washington, told a U.S. House of Representatives subcommittee last week.
You can press here to read the full text of his testimony before the Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade. But following are some salient snippets from Spector’s testimony:
# Outside Syria, I believe our core objective is to ensure that Syria's various assets do not find their way to parties, such as Hezbollah, anti-government insurgents in Iraq, the Taliban, or al-Qaeda… Assad has been warned not to take this step, which would certainly lead to calls for military intervention against him that even Moscow would find hard to oppose.
# [Within Syria] our most urgent goal is to ensure, for humanitarian reasons, that these weapons are not used in the current conflict.
# Timing is another key parameter to bear in mind as we develop strategies to reduce the risks from Syria's arsenals. Broadly speaking, we need to think in terms of three time frames: the current period of increasingly violent hostilities; the period of transition to a post-Assad government of one type or another; and the period after the authority of that government has been established within Syria.
# It is my understanding that CW storage facilities were deliberately built outside major population centers, probably to enhance secrecy and as a safety precaution. Production facilities are likely outside city centers. Thus it is possible that as the current phase of the conflict unfolds, such facilities may fall within insurgent-controlled territory. Although it has been reported that Syria has recently moved some of its chemical weapons, possibly to more secure locations, some chemical assets, such as large stocks of bulk agent may be difficult to relocate and may remain in situ and at risk of diversion.
# One measure that should be implemented immediately is to make clear that chemical weapon custodians who find themselves behind insurgent lines and who peacefully relinquish formal control over these stockpiles and then stay in place to protect them from misadventure, will be protected, and even rewarded, by the post-Assad government.
# Syria is one of a handful of states that have not joined the 1997 Chemical Weapon Convention, which prohibits parties from possessing these weapons and requires parties to destroy existing stocks. A key goal for the United States, which would be widely supported by other nations, would be to orchestrate Syria's commitment to eliminating its chemical arsenal and joining the Convention.
# The Syrian government that replaces Assad must be pressed to take similar steps as a condition for recognition and sustained support.
# To avoid such a relapse to the status quo, as the Free Syrian Army seizes territory where chemical facilities are situated (see map attached to this testimony) in coming weeks and, thereafter, as the Assad regime approaches collapse, with neither the regime nor the insurgents fully controlling the state apparatus, Washington and its allies must take steps to negotiate international monitoring and security arrangements for these sites. It may be best for us to do this with another country taking the lead, such as Turkey, the Netherlands, or Sweden. Access to sites would be negotiated with the Free Syrian Army for facilities within territory it controlled and, clandestinely, with site managers for facilities nominally remaining within Assad's chain of command.

Thursday, 1 March 2012

Syrian airports said to be in SFA gunsights

Brig. Hossam Awak (Photo from Asharq Alawsat) 
Syrian airports will be targeted and closed by the opposition Syrian Free Army (SFA) before long, according to the SFA’s chief of military operations.

Brig. Hossam Awak, who served with the Syrian regime’s Air Force Intelligence before defecting tells the Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat in an exclusive interview: “We have sleeping cells strewn across Damascus ready for action… We will soon be carrying out operations in Damascus. We will also be closing the airports in Syria before long.”

Awak, who was interviewed for the newspaper by Amro Ahmad during a stopover in Cairo, said an Iranian armored brigade and Lebanese Hezbollah fighters are deployed in Syria to help quell the yearlong uprising.

“We have on Syrian territory a full armored brigade from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. It is positioned in the camps of (PFLP-GC leader) Ahmad Jibril on the way to Deir El-Ashaer area near the Lebanese-Syrian border. This is being disclosed for the first time. The armored brigade was stationed there in 2007 in the wake of Hezbollah’s (2006) war with Israel.”

Awak said Hezbollah has so far committed three battalions to fight on the ground alongside the regime.

On Iraq, Awak said: “Candid information from Iraqi Kurdistan shows they sympathize with the Syrian revolution. Where the Nouri al-Maliki government is concerned, we honestly don’t know its stance. It seems to be a government that toes Iran’s line. But there hasn’t been any hostile attitude (towards the Syrian revolution). And even though they follow Iran, we hope they understand our situation since they also suffered under Saddam Hussein and the Baath regime.”

Awak went on, “Incoming Iraqi Shiite fighters are dealt with before arriving in Syria. We warn them for the umpteenth time: don’t meddle in Syrian affairs.”

Awak revealed the SFA received arms from Libya for a while, but this stopped because of Libya’s internal problems, adding: “I visited a number of the Gulf countries… where we were promised aid, but there is nothing new as yet. We’re waiting.”

Thursday, 9 February 2012

Islam’s scholars stand up to Assad

From left, Moslem scholars Gomaa, Ouda, Qaradawi. Zindani and Bayyah
A joint declaration by 107 leading Moslem scholars from 15 Arab countries released overnight is urging:
  • All Syrian military and security forces to disobey regime orders and join the uprising
  • The Moslem world to extend material and moral support to the Syrian resistance and the Syrian Free Army (SFA)
  • Arab and Moslem nations to sever diplomatic ties with Damascus
  • Full protection by insurgents of the rights of Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities
  • Urgent humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey
Moslem scholars who signed the declaration are from Egypt (25), Saudi Arabia (16), Kuwait (12), Libya (9), Morocco (7), Mauritania (5), Yemen (4), Sudan (4), UAE (4), Germany (4), Qatar (3), Syria (3), Lebanon (3), Bahrain (3), Jordan (3) and Tunisia (2).
The most prominent among them include the Mufti of Egypt Dr. Ali Gomaa, Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi of Qatar who heads the International Union of Moslem Scholars, Sheikh Abdullah Bin Bayyah of Mauritania, Sheikh Salman al-Ouda of Saudi Arabia, Sheikh Abdulmajeed al-Zindani of Yemen and Tunisia’s Sheikh Rashid al-Ghanoushi.
Their joint declaration in full:
Syria’s despotic regime and its supporters are meting out violence, torture, and bloodshed against this beloved country’s innocent people. It is a black stain that will never be forgotten. God will make the innocent blood of the Syrian people a shame and pestilence upon those who shed it and those who stood by and said nothing, as well as upon the individuals, organizations, nations, and institutions that have allied themselves with the corrupt regime.
Every day brings news of dozens or even hundreds of new deaths, and the number of those who are maimed is many times higher. Families are being driven into exile, atrocities are being committed, and a violent security crackdown is being systematically pursued, even in the face of clear and absolute worldwide condemnation.
The undersigned invoke the principle, enshrined in the Qur’an and in Prophet Muhammad’s teachings: that all human life is inviolable and sacred, as are all the human rights that Islam upholds and protects. Indeed, the Qur’an links the sin of bloodshed with no less than the worship of other than God, when its says: “And those who do not worship other than God, nor kill a soul in other than the dispensation of justice, nor commit adultery…”
The Qur’an also warns us the murderer is deserving of God’s wrath, His curse, and eternal damnation. God has decreed anyone who kills any human being, except in the dispensation of justice as a punishment for murder or in confronting those who spread violent mischief in the land, it is as if that person has killed humankind. Likewise, someone who saves the life of any human being, it is as if that person has saved all of humanity. On this basis, we issue the following resolutions:
1.    Members of the Syrian military, security forces, and other armed bodies, are forbidden to kill any member of the public, or to fire in their direction. Moreover, it is incumbent upon them to disobey any order that is directed at the public, or that will result in killing members of the public. Moreover, it is their duty to stop serving in those bodies and to cease all involvement. Those who have already killed members of the public should bear in mind that the crime of killing two people is double that of killing one. The door to repentance is always open. They should recall the story of the murderer who repented to God after killing 99 people, take heart, and refrain from causing further bloodshed. They should not let their past offenses make them despair of God’s forgiveness. It is better to be killed for refusing than to be a killer. Someone who dies an innocent martyr is better than someone who kills others and as a consequence goes to Hell. We declare it is forbidden to continue serving in any position with Syria’s military or security forces under the present circumstances. It is their duty to disengage from those bodies and to also stand against them.
2.   We call on people to support the Free Syrian Army in defending Syria’s civilians, population centers, and institutions, so long as the Syrian public is being targeted by the regime. We call upon the Moslems and upon the free world to assist the Free Syrian Army in every possible way, whether materially or morally, in order for it to mobilize itself for the role of preventing atrocities. It is, in turn, the duty of the Syrian Free Army to exercise control, avoid any deviation from this noble purpose, and refrain from acts of vengeance or aggression against the innocent. Any ignoble act on their part will only endanger Syria’s future national unity.
3.    It is necessary to support the Syrian resistance, materially and morally, with what they need to keep up the struggle and win the freedom and human rights of the Syrian people.
4.    We call upon all Arab and Moslem nations to take a firm diplomatic stance against the Syrian regime by expelling its ambassadors and cutting off diplomatic ties. We also call upon them to take a firm diplomatic stance against the nations supporting the regime, particularly Russia and China. We likewise call upon all Moslem people and public institutions to send messages of protest to those two countries, protest in front of their embassies throughout the world, and boycott their products. They should demand that those countries stop using the blood of innocent Syrians as a means to protect their military and economic presence in the region. Those countries should know the future of the region, sooner or later, rests with its people. Those who gamble on supporting a regime’s despotic crackdown killing its own citizens are surely making a losing wager.
5.    We call upon the Syrian resistance, the Transitional National Assembly, and all other organized bodies to join ranks and set aside their differences – now and in future. They should resolve with full sincerity to build their future nation on the basis of justice, human rights, and freedom, and to set up institutions that will ensure its territorial integrity and its people’s welfare. It is their duty to protect the rights of Syria’s religious and ethnic minorities. These minorities have been an integral part of the Syrian people for over a thousand years. They, like everyone else, enjoy full citizenship rights. The present regime alone bears responsibility for the atrocities being committed.
6.     We call upon the sincere forces in the Moslem world to organize grassroots efforts everywhere in support of the Syrian people’s resistance, and to provide aid for the refugees and those whom the conflict has displaced to places like Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. These people have a pressing need for food, clothing, medicine, and moral support.
7.    We give our support to every effort being made to safeguard the lives and unity of the Syrian people, and to save them from a protracted war that will only bring ruin to the country. We consider this to be in keeping with the main purposes of Islam’s teachings. These efforts should lead to free elections that will express the will of the people, represent the full spectrum of Syrian society, protect their rights, and ensure a sensible sharing of political power, as well as compensate the victims of the present conflict and the families of those who have lost their lives.
We ask God to hasten the relief of the beloved Syrian people, preserve their unity, and bring them together upon truth and justice. We ask Him to restore to them their security and stability under a just government that is truly committed to upholding their inalienable rights and freedoms, one that will never seek to dominate the people or succumb to corruption. May all their affairs ultimately fall to those who are virtuous. 

Monday, 6 February 2012

Syrian opposition points the way forward


Troops loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have been raining tank fire, mortars and rockets on the rebel city of Homs since Saturday’s failed UN Security Council vote on Syria.

They don’t seem deterred by the expected arrival in Damascus tomorrow, Tuesday, of Russia’s top diplomat Sergei Lavrov and spymaster Mikhail Fradkov. The two are donning the hats of troubleshooters.

The umbrella opposition Syrian National Council (SNC), for its part, posted a statement on its Facebook page declaring in Arabic:

“When Syrians and all other peoples aspiring for freedom and dignity expected the UNSC to pass an unambiguous resolution condemning the Syrian regime’s crimes, its atrocious killings of civilians and its mass slaughter of women, children and entire families, the world was appalled to see the governments of Russia and China wield a double-veto against the Euro-Arab sponsored draft.

“The SNC, which shared in weeklong Security Council deliberations (preceding the vote), strongly condemns the Moscow and Beijing governments’ blocking of the draft resolution. It holds the pair responsible for escalation (by the regime) of the carnage and killings. Their reckless act simply proffers a free license to kill.

“The SNC reiterates a nation-state does not protect its national interests by aligning itself with a murderous and corrupt clique, but by building partnerships rooted in shared interests. It thus urges both countries to quickly reconsider their positions and avoid obstructing the Syrian people’s quest for their freedoms and inalienable rights.

“Our people, who believe in godly triumph (over violence), have never relied on external sides. The world at large will see them persevere in their peaceful revolution, succeed in bringing down and removing the regime, close rank and stand as one behind the (Syrian) National Council and (Syrian) Free Army until they land on the shores of freedom and democracy.

“The Syrian people and the Arab and friendly peoples are invited to take all political, economic and diplomatic measures against the countries that killed the UNSC resolution, including economic boycott, ending of trade cooperation and reassessment of ties.

“The SNC shall keep up its political pursuits at all levels while lending full support to the revolution on the ground. It shall also seek an UN General Assembly resolution supporting our people’s rights. At the same time, it shall aim to create an international contact group made up of the countries supportive of the Syrian people’s struggle in order to help isolate the regime and build a free and democratic Syria.”

Monday, 30 January 2012

Russia's Syria policy seen "sitting at a bar"


Funeral for fallen Syrian soldiers (Photo from www.tishreen.info)

Save for Syria, the hodgepodge of news and views I came across this morning while going through the Arab media includes Qatar’s trailblazing diplomacy, which knows no bounds.

Qatari Crown Prince Sheikh Hamad Bin Tamim al-Thani yesterday succeeded in brokering ice-breaking talks in Amman between Jordan’s King Abdullah and Khaled Meshaal, political leader of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas.

It was the latter’s first visit to Jordan since he was expelled from the country in 1999.

Meshaal, who has since been based in Damascus, flew in to Amman on the Qatari crown prince’s private jet from Doha.

On Syria, rhubarbs have now broken out among news reporters about the state of play in Damascus.

Saudi Arabia’s leading daily speaks of:
  • “Battles coming nearer to Damascus and reinforcements being placed around the presidential palace”
  • “The Damascus suburbs flaming and the regime engaging the Republican Guard,” and
  • “Rumors sweeping Damascus after closure of the airport road.”

BBC Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen writes from Syria, “I had no idea before I saw them with my own eyes that the Free Syria Army was so active in and around Damascus.”

Syria’s printed media, however, are “astounded by the flood of rumors and lies triggered by the army’s surgical operation in the surrounds of Damascus.”

Among other news, they highlight a mass funeral for 23 army and “public order” men killed by “treacherous terrorist hands,” the assassination by “armed gangs” of Homs-based agriculture engineer Ms Amal Issa, the theft of 17 government vehicles from a garage in Idlib, and the quasi-licensing by the interior ministry of two new political parties.

Editorially, Lebanese political analyst Iyad Abou-Shakra says the Syrian regime, realizing violence against its opponents is leading nowhere, “is pondering other options. Regrettably, when fascist forces face a dead-end, but remain bent on maintaining their hegemony, they opt for partition. Faced with a lack of ability to rule all the lands of Syria, the regime will fall back on its emergency ‘reserve option.’ It has been building the latter’s infrastructure for some time.”

Wondering how best to save Syria, Abdul Rahman al-Rashed, Saudi boss of Alarabiya TV, says: “A political stand by the Arab League forsaking the regime would entice everyone to pounce on it. An assortment of forces would embrace the main Syrian opposition as the legitimate representative.

“What the Arab League is doing today is cover up the regime’s ugly crimes. As several Syrian opposition figures demanded, the Arab League needs to take off the hand it clasped around the Syrian people’s throat.

“Such solution does not need a plan, or the deployment of forces, or pleas to the Security Council. This will cost the Syrians less pain and blood than providing the regime with an airbag to cushion the effects of collision.”

Emad Adeeb, a leading Egyptian political analyst and the Middle East’s pioneer talk show host, pictures Russian foreign “policy sitting at a bar.”

He believes Russia is so far clinging to five strategic assets in Syria because:
  1. Syria remains the most important buyer of Russian arms.
  2. Russian arms are paid for either in Syrian cash or Iranian oil.
  3. Syria’s Tartus naval base gives the Russian Navy a strategic foothold on the Mediterranean coast.
  4. Syria’s Intelligence tentacles in the region feed the Russian spying services.
  5. Private Russian oil companies expect Syrian pressure on Beirut to win them Lebanese government contracts to explore for oil and gas off the Lebanese coastline.

“This is not to say the Arab League should not be knocking at Moscow’s door to win Russian support for the UN Syria resolution.” Russia is eager to jump to bed with Washington and the Arab world, but only if the Syria price is right.

A former Soviet diplomat once told me USSR foreign policy was akin to “a bar hostess waiting for the client bidding top price for her tainted drink.”