“Push to drive Assad out by year’s end”

Generals Haj Ali (left) and Tlass

Gen. Manaf Tlass, the highest-level defector from the Syrian regime, is said today to be returning to Syria shortly to join the Syrian National Army (SNA) headed by Maj. Gen. Mohammed Hussein Haj Ali, the revolution’s new military top dog.

The exclusive news was made on Twitter by The 47^th (@THE_47th), who has predicted several Syria developments in the past, including Tlass’ defection to France and visit to Saudi Arabia last July.

The 47^th says Tlass (see my posts of July 18, July 25 and July 26) will be assuming a combat role after the October 26 Eid al-Adha marking the end of the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca.

SNA commander Haj Ali is opposed to the creation of a no-fly zone over Syria or rebel held areas in the country. He told the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat in an interview the measure has more cons than pros. “If we can secure the necessary weapons, we can get rid of this crumbling regime fairly quickly,” he said (see my posts of September 5 and September 6)

According to the 47^th:

• The United States, Turkey and opposition umbrella Syrian National Council (SNC) have given the armed opposition -- including the Free Syrian Army (FSA) led by Riad el-Asaad – an “ultimatum” to either join the SNA or be treated like outcasts.
• Once the military overhaul and restructuring is out of the way, a “final push will be made against Assad.”
• In view of that, an unnamed U.S. official “who knows Syria best” expects Assad to be out by year’s end at the cost of an extra “50,000 casualties.”

Syria watchers are linking the above to remarks by Ambassador Susan E. Rice, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, at yesterday’s Security Council Open Debate on the Middle East, chiefly that “the United States will not wait for all members of this Council to get on the right side of history.”

Here is most what Rice said:

“…I’ll begin with Syria, where the horrifying situation is getting worse. Escalating violence, driven by the Assad regime, has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions of Syrians. And there’s no clearer demonstration of the situation’s threat to regional peace and security than the Syrian government’s recent shelling of (Turkey’s villa) Akcakale, which this Council rightfully condemned.

As the violence and atrocities mount, the United States will not wait for all members of this Council to get on the right side of history. Together with our allies, we’re supporting the opposition as it moves toward an inclusive, democratic transition. We’re further pressuring the regime, and we are addressing the growing humanitarian needs in the region. At the same time, we continue to support the efforts of Joint Special Representative (Lakhdar) Brahimi to find a durable solution to this crisis.

As President Obama told the UN General Assembly last month, the future does not belong to a dictator who massacres his people. The regime of Bashar al-Assad will come to an end. Indeed, this transition is not just inevitable – it has already begun.

Assad’s merciless assault upon the Syrian people has not cowed them into submission, far from it. The opposition is getting stronger, and parts of Syria have slipped from the regime’s control. In these areas, Syrian citizens are banding together to administer towns, reopen schools, and rebuild their economy. And the United States is helping them do so, providing the unarmed civilian opposition with help to organize in support of the transition plan agreed in Cairo last July with its vision for a democratic, pluralistic Syria where all of its people have a say in how they’re governed.

More than one and a half million people have fled their homes, either to neighboring countries or to safer places within Syria. As refugee numbers climb, we commend Syria’s neighbors – including Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq – for their generosity and recognize their need for additional support. The United States has committed over $130 million in food, medical supplies, and other life-saving assistance.

We encourage all Member States to respond to the needs identified in the UN’s Syria appeals and to coordinate closely with the United Nations in responding to the crisis. As Syrians plan for transition, we are looking for additional ways to support Syrian efforts to document serious violations of international law, including indiscriminate bombardment and deliberate targeting of civilians.

No one can deny that Assad’s war against the Syrian people now poses real challenges to all of Syria’s neighbors, including Lebanon. From deadly Syrian regime attacks across the border to tens of thousands of refugees, Lebanon is already suffering the consequences of this conflict.

Hezbollah’s active and growing support for Assad’s war exposes Hassan Nasrallah’s claims of promoting Lebanon’s national interest as nothing more than a deadly form of deception. The group’s leaders may try to change the subject by invoking hollow rhetoric about so-called resistance, but the truth is plain to see: Nasrallah’s fighters are now part of Assad’s killing machine and Hezbollah leaders continue to plot with Iran new measures to prop up a murderous and desperate dictator.

We encourage the international community to counter Hezbollah’s terrorist activity and do more to expose Hezbollah’s deepening involvement in Assad’s war…”

“Damascus July 18 bomber holed up in embassy”

The man who planted the bomb at the headquarters of the National Security Bureau (NSB) in Damascus on July 18 remains holed up in an embassy in the Syrian capital. His accomplice, who is privy to all details of the bombing, is in custody.

Isaiah, from the Ultimate Bible Picture Collection

The news is revealed today by Syria’s leading Lebanese media frontman Jean Aziz, writing for Syria’s Beirut mouthpiece daily al-Akhbar.

Aziz says the bomber was identified “within two hours of the blast.” CCTV cameras at and around NSB headquarters showed clearly how he carried out the operation. “Information gathered also showed a getaway car drive him immediately to one of two adjacent embassies in Damascus, one foreign and the other regional.”

Aziz suggests the July 18 bomb attack, which killed President Bashar al-Assad’s brother-in-law and Deputy Defense Minister Asef Shawkat, Defense Minister Gen. Daoud Rajha, former Defense Minister Hassan Turkomani and NSB chief Hisham Ikhtiar, was meant to trigger a drawn-out “coup operation that was planned meticulously and professionally.”

The first precursor of the plot, according to Aziz, was Gen. Manaf Tlass’ defection “on Monday, July 2, in the hope he would be given a role after the coup.”

Having failed to cripple the regime’s “chain of command and control,” says Aziz, the putschists fell back on their “Plan B” – namely, to blitz Aleppo “in the hope of forcing a Libyan scenario” in Syria.

Aziz, a Lebanese socio-political activist, journalist, university professor and talk show host, concludes:

“One thing is certain about the battle for Aleppo -- its outcome will only come to light after a relatively long while.

“Oppositionists are optimistic. They draw strength from the Turkish buildup and their supply routes from there. They are also cheered by the inflow of Jihadists.

“Loyalists are bullish about Iran’s stern warning to Ankara to keep out (of the fray) and a Kurdish role marginalizing Massoud Barzani.

“Whose optimism is well-founded?

“It’s impossible to tell.

“What’s obvious is that the battle for Aleppo would belie Isaiah’s prophecy, ‘Behold, Damascus will cease to be a city and will become a heap of ruins...’”

Syria’s Gen. Tlass talks his fill in Saudi Arabia

Gen. Tlass during his interview with Asharq Alawsat in Jeddah

It is legitimate at times to blow your own horn -- in this case, ArabSaga’s.

Yesterday’s post was the first in the global media to report Syrian Gen. Manaf Tlass’ arrival in Saudi Arabia. It led off with his landing in Riyadh before flying to Mecca to perform the Umrah. And it hinted at the considerable significance of the visit a propos the Saudi drive to rid Syria of President Bashar al-Assad  (see the posts of July 25, July 19 and July 18).

Today, the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat confirms Tlass’ presence in the kingdom by running a full-length interview and a picture of him in Jeddah.

Significantly, the interview was conducted in person overnight by Asharq Alawsat’s editor-in-chief Tariq Alhomayed.

The newspaper’s front-page screamer reads, “Gen. Manaf Tlass to Asharq Alawsat: No to eradication and I don’t see Syria with Assad.”

All this confirms my impression that Saudi Arabia is grooming Tlass to lead the transition to post-Assad Syria.

Following are the crucial remarks Tlass makes in his all-embracing interview with Alhomayed:

On exiting Syria

My exit was a complex operation that took time and involved several parties. But I won’t say more so as to protect those who helped me. Maybe one day I will reveal how I exited Syria.

From the beginning, I disagreed with the regime on ways to handle the crisis. I self-distanced myself for a while as mistakes in handling the crisis multiplied. I had no decision-making input on the matter. That’s why I preferred to leave. I always sought not to take sides. I tried to help all sides come together to overcome the crisis. That’s why I didn’t give a reason for my defection.

I am not looking for authority. I am looking forward to security and stability for Syria. If I get the opportunity as an ordinary citizen to return and build Syria, then I’m ready. But I am not looking for authority.

I did not leave Syria to lead the transitional period. I am aware the phase is difficult. It will be difficult for any one person to assume sole responsibility for this chapter. Better if people on the ground in Syria and abroad cooperate to see this phase through.

I did not leave to play a role. I left because I refused to participate in a security solution. That’s the main cause of my exit.

I was in disagreement with the security agencies over their management of the crisis. I tried my best to solve it peacefully.

I discovered a security solution was their priority, so I turned my back on this environment because I thought the crisis was complex and needed a genuine solution.

What I saw was the uprising being met with nothing but firepower. I refused that. There were people calling for dialogue and wishing the regime would listen to them. But it did not. I was among those who preferred having a dialogue with the uprising. That’s why I stood aside.

I was aware that once a security solution is launched, abandoning it becomes costly. That’s why I always thought the security solution is suicidal to the regime.

I self-distanced myself the instant the uprising was met with violence.

I effectively defected at the onset of the crisis. I was a defector while still in being in Syria. A defector doesn’t have to make a televised declaration. I deemed myself a defector because the manner in which this regime managed the crisis ran counter to my convictions and aspirations.

I don’t have blood on my hands. I don’t see history ever suggesting I had blood on my hands. I judge myself before history judges me. And I don’t care about authority or office.

On Assad and the inner circle

It’s about a year (since I last met with Assad).

I wish he listened to me (and opted for a political solution).

Chances (of a solution that keeps him in office) have dissipated. His staying in office after the huge number of deaths is unlikely. I wish he didn’t opt for a security solution to stay in power. But the security agencies misled him. Mistakes in politics can sometimes prove deadly.

(The bombing that killed four of Assad’s inner circle) was proof of a major security lapse. The bombing took place in a very secure area. This shows the uprising is getting evermore sophisticated and that the regime needs to lend its ear (to insurgents). It will be catastrophic if it doesn’t.

Maher al-Assad would not have been at such a (inner circle meeting). His ranking does not entitle him to attend.

A coup d’état in Syria would be difficult in view of the regime’s structure. The coup should have taken place at the onset of the crisis.

It would be difficult for me to quantify support (for the regime by Iran, Hezbollah, Iraq and the Russians), particularly that I was not a member of the crisis management team.

But the longer the crisis lasts, the more difficult it would be for Syria to recover.

No, he (Assad) is not weak. People around him simply belittled the crisis and that’s why he chose the security solution.

On future plans

My plan is to settle securely with my family and children in a place that is safe. I have the same wish for the Syrian people.

If Syria is safe and if safety is what Syrians feel, I would be the first one back in Syria because I am a Syrian citizen. Safety and security are what I wish for all Syrians, including myself.

I wasn’t thinking of whether I would be politically active or not, or in terms of having a political mission, when I left Syria. But if this were to serve my country and Syria’s security and stability, I’d possibly play my role as an ordinary citizen. Anyone else wanting to help solve this crisis would do the same.

There are nationalist people in and outside Syria. I yearn for a consensus solution that forestalls Syria’s destruction.

There are many honorable people in Syria and beyond. I hope they would set a roadmap to end this crisis peacefully and at minimal losses to Syria.

This is because Syria is a country of coexistence bringing together different minorities and ethnicities.

Citizens need a secure expanse to heal their crisis-inflicted wounds. I look forward to genuinely nationalist and honorable sides that can nurse those wounds and prevent further degradation in Syria that puts its future at risk.

I wish Syria a roadmap to end its crisis.

I will connect with every honorable person wanting to build Syria -- whether in the Syrian National Council, the Free Syrian Army or inside the country.

I will link up with everyone to determine a roadmap to end this crisis. There are many in the regime whose hands are not stained with blood. They were not consulted. They should not be ostracized. We need to safeguard our national institutions as well as Syria the state.

Honorable Syrian citizens can’t possibly be ostracized from Syrian society. Our mosaic-like Syrian society will have to bring back to life the Syria of old and build on it. But no, I don’t see such (new) Syria with Bashar al-Assad (staying).

On Saudi Arabia

I am happy to be here in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

I am glad to have performed the Umrah.

Saudi Arabia is Syria’s friend. The regime committed a strategic mistake in squandering this relationship with Saudi Arabia. I expect Saudi-Syrian relations to always be close-knit because the two countries share the same faith, nationalism and pan-Arabism compass.

I flew in to greet our Saudi brothers and weigh up their propensity to help us draw the roadmap alongside our other friends in the region and the international community. We shall interconnect with each and everyone capable of helping Syria put a stop to this crisis.

I, of course, seize this occasion to thank the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, His Majesty King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz, for giving me the opportunity to visit Saudi Arabia and for standing by and assisting the Syrian people.