Iran: Syria being on its deathbed, long live Hamas

Billboards in Gaza City thank Iran for its support in last month's flare-up with Israel

“Tehran opens weapons highway to Hamas,” reads a screamer on Lebanese Hezbollah’s al-Manar portal this morning.

Significantly, the article bylined Qassem Qassem says Tehran has opened an artery of “weapons and cash” to the Hamas Islamic Movement in Gaza “despite the Movement’s break with Syria.”

Qassem says Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has communicated Iran’s decision to his senior aides. He told them Tehran would be supplying a “substantial stockpile of quality weapons” to Hamas and ignoring the latter’s fallout with Syria.

Iran, Syria and Hezbollah make up the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”

Nasrallah briefed his top lieutenants in the wake of a recent visit to Tehran by Hamas politburo member Imad el-Alami.

Qassem says Alami and Iranian leaders agreed during the visit “to sidestep all political discourse” concerning Syria.

Lebanese Hezbollah has since issued a circular banning all members from criticizing Hamas in the print, audio or social media over its Syria stance.

Alami was born in the Gaza Strip in 1956. He holds a Bachelor's degree in civil engineering from Egypt’s Alexandria University. He was held by Israel for two years before his deportation to Lebanon in January 1991 with three other Hamas members. He then settled in Damascus before moving back to Gaza.

In a statement published November 7 on its official website Hamas reported that Syrian security forces raided the office and apartment of Hamas political chief Khaled Meshaal on November 5, emptying them of their contents. The forces then proceeded to confiscate Meshaal’s cars and lock the offices.

On November 6, Syrian regime forces repeated that raid on Alami’s office.

Hamas leaders abandoned the Damascus headquarters in January 2012, citing the regime’s brutal crackdown on the Syrian people.

Meshaal is now visiting Gaza for the first time after crossing the border from Egypt on Friday to celebrate Hamas’ 25th anniversary.

He was the target of a botched Israeli assassination attempt in Amman 15 years ago during Benjamin Netanyahu's first term as Israel’s prime minister.

Meshaal’s visit to Gaza comes two weeks after Hamas reached a cease-fire with Israel brokered by Egypt.

Six Israelis and more than 160 Gazans were killed during the flare-up in which Gaza militants fired about 1,300 Iranian-made rockets and missiles at Israeli targets, while Israeli warplanes launched approximately the same number of air strikes on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

Gaza watchers believe Iran proved to be a key player in the Gaza battle. “Her Fajr-5 missile was the star of the face-off.”

The Fajr-5, developed by Iran and also supplied to Hezbollah, has a range of up to 75 kilometers, which means it can hit central Israel from Gaza.

Iranian missile components are reportedly smuggled via Lebanon and Sudan to Egypt’s Sinai and on to the Gaza Strip, where the missiles are assembled locally. 

Is the U.S. readying for a 'Grand Bargain' with Iran?

Is the Obama Administration set to reorient U.S. policy toward Iran as fundamentally as the Nixon Administration reoriented U.S. policy toward the People’s Republic of China in the early 1970s?

The chances of this happening increased this week after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Washington is ready for bilateral talks if Tehran is “ever ready.”

Speaking at a gala dinner for American and Israeli officials, experts and diplomats at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy on Friday night, Clinton stressed the Obama administration is prepared for bilateral talks with the Islamic Republic.

For now, she said Washington is working with members of the so-called P-5+1 group of major powers -- Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States -- to resume talks with Iran about its nuclear program.

Responding to a question from the audience on Iran after delivering her opening remarks, Clinton said:

“We are deeply engaged in consultations right now with our P-5+1 colleagues, looking to put together a presentation for the Iranians at the next meeting that does make it clear we’re running out of time, we’ve got to get serious, here are issues we are willing to discuss with you, but we expect reciprocity.

“Now, I would also add that we have, from the very beginning, made it clear to the Iranians we are open to a bilateral discussion. And we have tried. You know the President tried to reach out. Dennis Ross is here. He was instrumental in those first two years in trying to create some kind of opportunity for dialogue on the nuclear issue. So far there has not yet been any meeting of the minds on that. But we remain open.

“And we’ve certainly tried quite hard in the P-5+1 context to have a bilateral discussion, and they’ve not been willing to do so. But we understand that it may take pushing through that obstacle to really get them fully responsive to whatever the P-5+1 offer might be.

“Right now, we’re working on the P-5+1 and making our willingness known that we’re ready to have a bilateral discussion if they’re ever ready to engage.”

Tariq Alhomayed, the editor-in-chief of Saudi Arabia’s leading daily Asharq Alawsat is incensed by the unexpected U.S. offer, writing today:

“What will the negotiations be about? You only need to ponder Reuters’ dispatch about Mrs. Clinton’s remarks concerning America’s readiness to negotiate directly with Iran.

“The agency wrote: ‘In October, diplomats had said they were considering asking Iran for stricter limits on its nuclear program in exchange for an easing of sanctions in a long-shot approach aimed at yielding a solution that has eluded them for a decade. One option could be for each side to put more on the table -- both in terms of demands and possible rewards -- than in previous meetings in a bid to break the stalemate…

“It is important to underscore the words ‘demands’ and ‘rewards’ because they are key. Among Iran’s principal demands and rewards is to have a role in the region at the expense of our [pan-Arab] nation and interests. That’s exactly what Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proposed during his last trip to New York. He said he could envisage Iranians and Americans cooperating to maintain the security of the Arabian Gulf.

“Of course, the Iranians had previously mentioned [cooperation in] Afghanistan and Pakistan. That is an open secret.

“Tehran is tirelessly active throughout the region, trying to enhance its negotiating position. The Arabs concerned, on the other hand, are busy tackling flashpoints instigated by Iranian hands.

“The answer to the question (What will the negotiations be about?) is simple: Iran and the United States will haggle over our heads, over the region, and of course over the Gulf. Sadly, this is absolutely the case. That is Iran’s strategic objective: hegemony by means of nuclear capabilities or negotiations.

“America’s conduct is lax and focused exclusively on the security of Israel.

“The Americans wish to proceed at minimal risk. It is a shortsighted view, for which they will pay sooner or later. Are the Arabs generally and the Gulfites in particular aware?”

I must say Clinton may have fired the opening shot for the so-called “Grand Bargain” that would put all the principal bilateral differences between Washington and Tehran on the table at the same time and agree to resolve them as a package.

The Grand Bargain would for instance put on the table: Iran’s nuclear program, its support for Hezbollah and Hamas, its leverage in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and even Yemen, its ambition to resume the role of U.S.-backed policeman of the Gulf, and its hostility towards Israel.

In exchange, Iran would probably ask Washington for security guarantees, the full recognition of its legitimate interests, influence and status in the region, the lifting of investment, financial and trade sanctions, accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), and a promise never to push for regime change. 

Iran’s missiles: With or against the Arabs?

Egypt-brokered talks to end a week of Israeli-Hamas violence continue.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is heading to the region and the UN chief has once again appealed from Cairo for an immediate ceasefire.

Grieving Gazans were today burying civilians killed in ongoing Israeli airstrikes, and barrages of rockets from Gaza sent terrified Israelis scurrying to take cover.

The conflict began last Wednesday when Israel killed a top Hamas military commander, saying it wanted to end rocket attacks on its soil.

More than 110 Palestinians and three Israelis have been killed so far.

Mohammed al-Rumaihi, a Kuwaiti professor of political sociology who has published more than 20 books on social and cultural change in the Gulf and Arab world, wonders in a news analysis for the Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat whether the Iranian missiles supplied to Hamas in Gaza were meant to be “with or against the Arabs.”

He writes:

Hamas lobbed rockets into Israeli cities, sparking off euphoria on Arab streets. For the first time, missiles were aimed at areas in Israel where the alarm siren was never heard before. Israel’s reach is not what it used to be – it can no more kill Arabs on a whim.

The missiles flying from Gaza raised the Islamic Republic of Iran’s fame as their exclusive designer and manufacturer. And that’s exactly what the Islamic Republic is after – winning the Arab street, which is by nature emotive and easily enraptured by anyone trying to punish Israel for disgraceful transgressions.

But there are Iranian missiles and bombs being used to kill other Arabs in Syrian villages, towns and cities. No one has yet explained why Iran’s military hardware is used to defend some Arabs in one place and kill other Arabs somewhere else at the same time without hurting their enemy.

Iran basically plays to win. She wins loads when Arab public opinion deems her to the defender of downtrodden Palestinians, who are used as fodder for Israel’s killing machine.

Iran helps kill Syrians trying to break free from the alliance she champions. At the same time, Iran’s cat’s-paw in Lebanon, Hezbollah, remains a Gaza bystander, saving its huge missile arsenal to fight Lebanese Arabs.

The play is truly surreal. The play’s producer says the weapons should only be used when they serve their provider’s interests, i.e. Iran.

Israel’s human and material losses from Iranian rockets in the weeklong violence are infinitesimal compared to the losses inflicted on the Syrian people.

The Gaza conflict was also timed to be unkind to the new regime in Egypt. Whoever chose to pull the trigger meant to put Egypt on the spot by forcing it to choose between backing Palestinians on the ground or doing nothing, as Mubarak’s Egypt would have done.

Cairo, it seems, chose to play the game. It sent its prime minister for a few hours to Gaza and followed up with plenty of verbiage about solidarity, support and brotherhood. But the end result is the same – an attempt to mediate between the two protagonists, as Hosni Mubarak used to do.

The Arab League was probably more loud-mouthed this time, but nothing more.

The Gaza conflict achieved the following:

• It allowed some people to extol the virtues of Iran’s weapons technology, especially after last month’s launch by Hezbollah of an Iranian-made drone over Israel, which was shot down by Israeli forces.
• It revived talk of Iran being the indisputable backer of Palestinians.
• It left in the shade a key accomplishment by the Syrian people who saw their opposition groups unite in a coalition in Doha and go on to win unprecedented international recognition.
• It boosted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s reelection chances.

Why Morsi is the fitting Israel-Hamas pacifier

Clockwise from L.: Gaza victims, Egypt's Morsi and Iran's Supreme Leader

International efforts to wrest a cease-fire from Israel and the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip are gathering momentum.

The two sides are putting forth widely divergent demands to halt five days of violence. The violence saw Israel launch ceaseless air, tank and warship strikes on the Strip and Hamas fire a stream of rockets into Israel, including into the Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas.

By this writing, 84 Palestinians, most of them civilians, have been killed and 720 have been wounded. Three Israeli civilians have died from Hamas rocket fire and a dozen have been wounded.

President Barack Obama said he was in touch with players across the region in hopes of halting the fighting. While defending Israel's right to defend itself against the rocket fire, he also warned of the risks Israel would take if it were to expand its air assault into a ground war.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Sunday afternoon he would head to the region and "appeal personally for ending the violence." French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier in the day, and an Israeli representative was in Egypt earlier in an attempt to negotiate a peaceful settlement.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is expected to pay a snap visit to Gaza as part of an Arab League delegation to express support and solidarity.

Morocco’s King Mohammed VI has meantime ordered the immediate setting up of a Moroccan field hospital in the Gaza Strip.

The hospital will comprise specialized medical units of the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces, as well as Moroccan civilian physicians and paramedics. The multidisciplinary medical-surgical hospital will reinforce existing medical facilities there.

According to a senior State Department official, Egypt has an important leadership role to play in brokering a cessation of the violence between Hamas and Israel.

Egypt, the official said, “has the relationships in Gaza; Prime Minister Qandil travelled there yesterday and had the opportunity to meet with (Ismail) Haniyeh, and other leaders in Hamas. So we believe that they have the stature, the credibility, and the relationships to be able to persuade Hamas and its allies to stop… There are other actors involved like the Turks and the Qataris and others who also have a role to play. But Egypt’s role is absolutely pivotal.”

Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, believes post-Mubarak Egypt under President Mohamed Morsi, a former leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, “simply can’t cut loose from Gaza’s destiny.”

Charbel explains in a leader comment penned in Arabic:

Other than the rationales of geographic contiguity, security, stability and role, Egypt now has a regime begotten by the revolution and entrusted to the Muslim Brothers by the ballot box.

Consequently, Hamas neither can nor wishes to deal with Morsi’s Egypt the way it dealt with Egypt under Hosni Mubarak.

Israel’s onslaught on Gaza showed the Arab Spring did not let the Palestinian cause fall from its list of priorities. The offensive gave Arab Spring countries the chance to reiterate that injustice to the Palestinians is in their hearts and minds and will have pride of place in their priorities.

The region has changed. More exactly, it is changing.

Despite lingering uncertainties, apprehensions and machinations, the Arab Spring is probably the most important regional event since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

From this perspective, let’s ponder conditions in the two countries that initiated the Axis of Resistance.

Iran is buckling under the weight of economic sanctions. Her role in the region is melting away after colliding with the Arab Spring, specifically in Syria. Her nuclear program is closely monitored by Western powers.

Syria, the Arab partner in the Axis of Resistance, sees her regime loosing control on the ground and becoming an Arab, Islamic and international pariah.

The Hamas movement, whose leadership resided in Syria, was the Sunnite link in the Axis of Resistance grouping Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. It was also the golden link in the chain because it introduced the Axis’ missiles and modus operandi to the heart of Palestinian territory.

Consisting of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Palestinian offshoot of the Axis of Resistance played a key role over the past two 20-odd years. Hamas and Islamic Jihad helped exasperate hopes pinned on the Oslo Accords, militarize the Second Intifada, and undermine the successive clout and authority of Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas. Their suicide attacks shored up Israeli hardliners.

With the two Palestinian groups tagging along, Iran and Syria were able to gain veto power on any idea of Palestinian-Israeli or Arab-Israeli peace.

The Arab Spring was a bolt from the blue for Syria. But it allowed Hamas leaders residing in Damascus to nose out the Arab Spring’s Muslim Brotherhood scent.

Although Hamas initially refused to take a stand for or against the Syrian uprising, it was against the grain of its political chief Khaled Meshaal to follow in Hezbollah’s suit and take orders from Iran’s Supreme Leader. Hamas consequently elected to emigrate from Damascus and align itself with the Muslim Brotherhood Supreme Guide based in Egypt.

Israel’s blitz on Gaza came on the heels of such momentous changes. Israeli warplanes pummeled the Strip while Hamas and Islamic Jihad hit back with rockets targeting Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Remarkably, Hamas hastened to tell everyone trying to broker de-escalation that the address for negotiations is Egypt.

Morsi’s telephone hasn’t stopped ringing. Morsi has no choice but to seek a quick return to calm and normalcy. He cannot see Hamas crushed in Gaza. And he cannot gamble away Egypt’s international ties and financial aid either. He would not risk the Brotherhood’s credentials for running Egypt. 

Hezbollah rolls out missiles supply bridge to Gaza

Journalist Hassan Aleeq of al-Akhbar (center)

An “adequate supply” of long-range missiles has found its way to the embattled Gaza Strip “in the past few hours,” according to a news report published in Beirut this morning.

The report penned by journalist Hassan Aleeq makes the front-page of al-Akhbar.

The newspaper speaks for the so-called “Axis of Resistance” grouping Syria, Iran and Hezbollah.

Hezbollah’s own al-Manar portal reproduces the report with a footnote saying, “Al-Manar is not responsible for the wording and content of the article, which expresses the point of view of the author.”

“During the past hours,” Aleeq writes, “a state of alert was declared in the ranks of Hezbollah and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

“Obviously, the state of alert does not cover all their military units, whose state of preparedness has been raised in anticipation of any masked Israeli folly.

“What was placed on red alert, however, are those (units) experienced in smuggling arms from Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Sudan, (and elsewhere) to Egypt (specifically Sinai) and on to the Gaza Strip.

“That’s the well-known route, but there are other ways of delivering what should be placed in the hands of the Resistance in Gaza.”

Aleeq says the focus now is on channeling a large number of long-range missiles to Hamas-ruled Gaza.

Accordingly, “an adequate number of available long-range missiles” have already reached the Gaza Strip.

“Those familiar with the modus operandi of the Resistance in Lebanon and Palestine,” writes Aleeq, “are emphatic supply lines won’t stop either during the aggression or after its cessation.

“…Ultimately, [Hezbollah] in Lebanon and its backers are aware the war raging in Gaza these days is aimed against it as well. That’s why [Hezbollah] will spare no effort to convey all available weapons where they need to reach.”

Israel bombarded the Gaza Strip with nearly 200 airstrikes early Saturday, widening a blistering assault on militant rocket operations.

The new attacks followed Gaza’s unprecedented rocket strikes aimed at Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

In the latest round of the conflict – triggered by Israel’s assassination of Hamas’ military chief, Ahmed al-Jaabari, on Wednesday -- the Gazans have used a rocket that can strike at Israel's heartland. This is the Fajr-5, developed by Iran and also supplied to Hezbollah. It has a range of up to 75 kilometers, which means it can hit central Israel.

By mid-day Saturday, 39 Palestinians including 13 civilians and three Israeli civilians have been killed since the Israeli operation began.

Iran is in “Mother of All Battles” over Syria

Putin with Maliki yesterday (top right) and with Khamenei in 2007

Emboldened by his one-on-one talks yesterday with Russian President Vladimir Putin at his Novo-Ogaryovo residence outside Moscow, Iran’s emerging surrogate Nouri al-Maliki told Turkey to end her “presumptuous” verve and keep her hands off Syria.

The Iraqi prime minister’s blatant support of the Syrian regime came soon after he revived military ties with Moscow (see previous post).

Maliki said Syria was not threatening Turkey, and Ankara should not seek NATO’s intervention.

“Turkey is being presumptuous, you could say, as if it were taking responsibility for solving the Syrian conflict instead of the Syrian people and wants to impose its own solution. For this reason, the international community needs to stop Turkey from intervening,” he told the press in moscow.

NATO must not use protecting Turkey as a pretext to intervene in Syria, he said.

Maliki said Iraq's position on Syria is similar to Russia’s as both countries are calling for peaceful resolution of the conflict.

He also dismissed charges that Iraq allowed Iran to deliver weapons to Syria through its airspace.

“This is not true,” he told Interfax yesterday, suggesting the claims are politically motivated.

“We have been doing random checks of aircrafts and have not discovered any weapon aboard. We found no evidence of Iranian planes ferrying weapons to Syria. We clearly told Syria and Iran that we allow delivery of diverse cargo, but not weapons,” he said.

Putin meanwhile postponed a scheduled visit to Ankara because of his “busy schedule” this month, the Kremlin press office told RT (Russia Today).

The Russian president’s decision to postpone the visit comes amid mounting tension between Turkey and Syria.

Editorially, a Syria and Iran watcher, who is a confidant of the two countries’ decision-makers, says Tehran considers the battle for Syria the “Mother of All Battles.”

Grounds for Iran’s mindset, the man tells pan-Arab al-Hayat’s editor-in-chief Ghassan Charbel on condition of anonymity, are as follows:

*** Contemplate the region in the few years preceding the Arab Spring. Iran was in the driving seat. Its clout in Iraq was waiting in the wings for the withdrawal of U.S. troops. Its relations with Syria were solid and titling in its favor. Its leadership was in the saddle of the Axis of Resistance, which stretched from Tehran to Syria, to Lebanon, and to Palestine via Jihad and Hamas.

*** Between 2000 and 2010, Iran scored spectacular successes: the 2006 Lebanon War, the debut of Iranian missiles in Israel’s security equation, and the Gaza War that consolidated Iranian presence on the Palestinian scene with Sunnite and Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated Hamas.

*** Iran became the Number One player in Lebanon after the 2005 withdrawal of Syrian troops in the wake of Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination. From thereon, Hezbollah became the conduit for Syrian presence in Lebanon.

*** Via Hamas and Jihad, Iran was able to abort Palestinian-Israeli negotiations under both Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas.

*** With the U.S. pulling out of Iraq and Maliki remaining at the helm there, the Axis of Evil came to include Baghdad, which fully espoused Iran’s Syria policy.

*** The Arab Spring startled Iran. Hosni Mubarak’s flaccid regime was an easier pro-American target for the Axis of Resistance. Mohamed Morsi’s election as president of Egypt at the peak of the struggle for Syria dealt Iran a body blow. Morsi has been unequivocal in wanting President Bashar al-Assad to step down.

*** Iran is now running into a regional brick wall. You can call it a Sunnite brick wall, given Morsi’s alliance with Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the pair’s cooperation with Gulf Arabs, especially on the Syria file. This reality has shuffled the rules of play in the region.

*** The Axis of Resistance has lost its sole Sunnite offshoot, Hamas, which has moved out of Syria.

*** Iran is waging a “Mother of All Battles” in Syria in that it is defending there its role, its borders, its investments over the years, a crossroads, a corridor to Hezbollah, and its gains in Iraq and Lebanon.

*** Hezbollah is in a life-and-death battle in Syria. The “Party of God” is aware it needs the Syria corridor to remain a regional player and retain the ability to wage war or face one. Otherwise, it would metamorphose into a local player in Lebanese politics.

*** Iran recognizes the Syrian regime’s fall and the rise of a substitute pro-Turkey regime could create new facts on the ground in Iraq and Lebanon. That would bring down the curtains on Iran’s role as a major player and undermine the image of its leaders as they struggle with U.S. and European sanctions and regional commitments.

*** It is difficult to imagine the Syrian regime returning to a status quo ante the Arab Spring. Iran is mindful of this, but chooses to extend the regime’s lifespan despite the costs. Such policy could turn Syria into an Arab Afghanistan worrisome to Turkey, Israel and other states.

*** Iran is waging a “Mother of All Battles” in Syria because it cannot bear losing two battles: the role battle and the battle for the bomb. 

Morsy in Saudi Arabia: Brothers in Islam reconnect

Egypt's Mohamed Morsy and Saudi King Abdullah

Mohamed Morsy travels to Saudi Arabia Wednesday on his first official trip abroad as Egypt’s president amid hopes the visit would consolidate the two countries’ strategic political and economic partnerships and “restore Riyadh’s historic rapport with Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood.”

During his state visit, Morsy, a leading figure in the Muslim Brotherhood, will hold talks with King Abdullah and Crown Prince Salman and also perform the Umrah, the non-mandatory lesser pilgrimage to Mecca that may be performed at any time of the year.

Saudi Ambassador to Egypt Ahmed Qattan delivered King Abdullah’s invitation to Morsy last Saturday. Qattan said the visit would enhance bilateral relations in all domains.

A curtain raiser on the visit published today in the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat says bilateral trade between the two states stood at $4.75 billion in 2011 while the value of Saudi investments in Egypt reached some $27 billion. The Saudi investments are in 779 Egyptian projects, of which 381 are in the mining and industry sector, 117 in agriculture, 156 in services and 94 in tourism.

Other revealing figures show Saudi Arabia hosting 1.7 million Egyptian expatriates (including Morsy’s son Ahmad, who is a medic based in Ahsaa).

At the same time, some 700,000 Saudis are residing or studying in Egypt, which draws another half a million Saudi tourists annually.

1936: Abdulaziz receives Banna (Asharq Alawsat)

In a flashback on Saudi Arabia’s relations with Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, Asharq Alawsat publishes a 1936 photo of King Abdulaziz Al Saud receiving Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna at a Muslim forum in the wake of the latter’s pilgrimage to Mecca.

The paper says when Banna asked King Abdulaziz if the Muslim Brotherhood could open a branch in Saudi Arabia, the monarch courteously ducked the question and responded, “We’re all brothers in Islam.”

Banna, the paper adds, later wrote in his diary, “Saudi Arabia incarnates the hopes of Islam and Muslims. It lives by the Quran, the Sunnah and the legacy of the righteous.”

Asharq Alawsat recognizes that “Saudi relations with Egypt’s Brotherhood had their ups and downs over the years but remained close despite the differences.”

A serious dip in relations between Saudi Arabia and Nasser’s Egypt (presumably over the 1962-1970 North Yemen Civil War) under King Feisal saw the kingdom open its doors to large numbers of Muslim Brothers.

Editorially, Egypt’s leading talk-show host and columnist Imad Adeeb, writing for Asharq Alawsat, says Morsy’s impending visit to the kingdom conveys five signals:

1.     Demise of the Mubarak regime, which had excellent ties with Saudi Arabia, and the transition to a “Brotherhood republic” won’t affect the mainstays of the Egyptian-Saudi partnership, which is based on facts and mutual interests rather than on specific individuals.

2.    Smart Saudi diplomacy was able to abort Iran’s drive to host Morsy on his first foreign visit as president before the conference of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran at the end of August.

3.     Heal the diplomatic spat over the Gizawi affair (See my April 26 post, “Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the suspected drug mule”).

4.     Allow Riyadh to gauge the Egyptian president’s views on three principal issues: (1) The export or dissemination of (Brotherhood) ideas and experiences abroad (2) The ruling Brotherhood’s position vis-à-vis Iran and (3) How the president intends tackling the Hamas, Hezbollah and Israel files.

5.     Determine the size of Saudi financial support Egypt needs to put its economic house in order, restore confidence in its markets and win back foreign investors.

How Egypt’s Brotherhood is helping Shafiq

Unchecked blunders by the Muslim Brotherhood could crown Ahmed Shafiq as Egypt’s head of state, according to Egyptian media star and talk show host Imad Adeeb.

Ahmed Shafiq

Shafiq, ousted president Hosni Mubarak’s last prime minister, faces Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Mursi, the other finalist in the June 16-17 presidential runoff vote.

Adeeb, writing today for the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, says, “Should Ahmed Shafiq win the presidential race, it would be a consequence of the other side’s faults.”

His argument:

Two days ago, persons unknown attacked Shafiq’s campaign HQ in the Dokki area of Giza, where they tore campaign flyers and leaflets and smashed computers. The attack spurred a public outcry, chiefly among Shafiq’s followers.

Egyptian citizens are yearning for stability based on law and order and better living conditions. Far from slogans, electoral platforms and electioneering rhetoric, most Egyptians long for a strong, willing and able head of state to run a country in turmoil.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s blunders since mismanaging the January 23 opening session of the People’s Assembly “probably explain the general public’s loss of faith in its ability, and the ability of its key figures, to run the affairs of state.”

Nothing else explains “why the Muslim Brotherhood garnered 10 million votes in the parliamentary elections and not more than 5.7 million ballots for Mursi four months later in the first round of the presidential polls.”

This confirms “a loss of faith in the Muslim Brotherhood and its political arm, the Justice and Freedom Party.”

The more the Muslim Brotherhood resorts to parliament and its partisans to shut out Gen. Shafiq, the stronger his political backing. Seeking to “exclude or isolate” competitors provokes Egyptian voters. “Fear of the Muslim Brotherhood becoming heavy-handed” amplifies their defiance and obstinacy.

The only hope for the Muslim Brotherhood winning the presidency is an ultra-quick shift “from exclusion tactics to fair play.”

Tariq Alhomayed, Asharq Alawsat’s editor-in-chief, tells Egyptian voters their choice in about a fortnight is not so much between Mursi and Shafiq as between a religious or civil state.

His line of reasoning:

The Muslim Brotherhood’s “General Guide” -- or supreme leader Mohamed Badie – chose Mursi to run as an “alternate” candidate after the electoral vetting commission barred the group’s charismatic strongman Khairat el-Shater from standing. A Mursi victory would be a case of the Brotherhood supreme leader ruling Egypt “from behind the hijab.”

In a way, Egypt under Mursi would be following in the footsteps of:

-- Iran, where the president of the republic is subordinate to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei

-- Hamas, whose elected head is Ismail Haniyeh and actual leader is Khaled Meshaal, and

-- Iraq, where elections are held from time to time but the final word invariably stays with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

Russia's Syria policy seen "sitting at a bar"

Funeral for fallen Syrian soldiers (Photo from www.tishreen.info)

Save for Syria, the hodgepodge of news and views I came across this morning while going through the Arab media includes Qatar’s trailblazing diplomacy, which knows no bounds.

Qatari Crown Prince Sheikh Hamad Bin Tamim al-Thani yesterday succeeded in brokering ice-breaking talks in Amman between Jordan’s King Abdullah and Khaled Meshaal, political leader of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas.

It was the latter’s first visit to Jordan since he was expelled from the country in 1999.

Meshaal, who has since been based in Damascus, flew in to Amman on the Qatari crown prince’s private jet from Doha.

On Syria, rhubarbs have now broken out among news reporters about the state of play in Damascus.

Saudi Arabia’s leading daily speaks of:

• “Battles coming nearer to Damascus and reinforcements being placed around the presidential palace”
• “The Damascus suburbs flaming and the regime engaging the Republican Guard,” and
• “Rumors sweeping Damascus after closure of the airport road.”

BBC Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen writes from Syria, “I had no idea before I saw them with my own eyes that the Free Syria Army was so active in and around Damascus.”

Syria’s printed media, however, are “astounded by the flood of rumors and lies triggered by the army’s surgical operation in the surrounds of Damascus.”

Among other news, they highlight a mass funeral for 23 army and “public order” men killed by “treacherous terrorist hands,” the assassination by “armed gangs” of Homs-based agriculture engineer Ms Amal Issa, the theft of 17 government vehicles from a garage in Idlib, and the quasi-licensing by the interior ministry of two new political parties.

Editorially, Lebanese political analyst Iyad Abou-Shakra says the Syrian regime, realizing violence against its opponents is leading nowhere, “is pondering other options. Regrettably, when fascist forces face a dead-end, but remain bent on maintaining their hegemony, they opt for partition. Faced with a lack of ability to rule all the lands of Syria, the regime will fall back on its emergency ‘reserve option.’ It has been building the latter’s infrastructure for some time.”

Wondering how best to save Syria, Abdul Rahman al-Rashed, Saudi boss of Alarabiya TV, says: “A political stand by the Arab League forsaking the regime would entice everyone to pounce on it. An assortment of forces would embrace the main Syrian opposition as the legitimate representative.

“What the Arab League is doing today is cover up the regime’s ugly crimes. As several Syrian opposition figures demanded, the Arab League needs to take off the hand it clasped around the Syrian people’s throat.

“Such solution does not need a plan, or the deployment of forces, or pleas to the Security Council. This will cost the Syrians less pain and blood than providing the regime with an airbag to cushion the effects of collision.”

Emad Adeeb, a leading Egyptian political analyst and the Middle East’s pioneer talk show host, pictures Russian foreign “policy sitting at a bar.”

He believes Russia is so far clinging to five strategic assets in Syria because:

1. Syria remains the most important buyer of Russian arms.
2. Russian arms are paid for either in Syrian cash or Iranian oil.
3. Syria’s Tartus naval base gives the Russian Navy a strategic foothold on the Mediterranean coast.
4. Syria’s Intelligence tentacles in the region feed the Russian spying services.
5. Private Russian oil companies expect Syrian pressure on Beirut to win them Lebanese government contracts to explore for oil and gas off the Lebanese coastline.

“This is not to say the Arab League should not be knocking at Moscow’s door to win Russian support for the UN Syria resolution.” Russia is eager to jump to bed with Washington and the Arab world, but only if the Syria price is right.

A former Soviet diplomat once told me USSR foreign policy was akin to “a bar hostess waiting for the client bidding top price for her tainted drink.”