Iran: Syria being on its deathbed, long live Hamas

Billboards in Gaza City thank Iran for its support in last month's flare-up with Israel

“Tehran opens weapons highway to Hamas,” reads a screamer on Lebanese Hezbollah’s al-Manar portal this morning.

Significantly, the article bylined Qassem Qassem says Tehran has opened an artery of “weapons and cash” to the Hamas Islamic Movement in Gaza “despite the Movement’s break with Syria.”

Qassem says Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has communicated Iran’s decision to his senior aides. He told them Tehran would be supplying a “substantial stockpile of quality weapons” to Hamas and ignoring the latter’s fallout with Syria.

Iran, Syria and Hezbollah make up the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”

Nasrallah briefed his top lieutenants in the wake of a recent visit to Tehran by Hamas politburo member Imad el-Alami.

Qassem says Alami and Iranian leaders agreed during the visit “to sidestep all political discourse” concerning Syria.

Lebanese Hezbollah has since issued a circular banning all members from criticizing Hamas in the print, audio or social media over its Syria stance.

Alami was born in the Gaza Strip in 1956. He holds a Bachelor's degree in civil engineering from Egypt’s Alexandria University. He was held by Israel for two years before his deportation to Lebanon in January 1991 with three other Hamas members. He then settled in Damascus before moving back to Gaza.

In a statement published November 7 on its official website Hamas reported that Syrian security forces raided the office and apartment of Hamas political chief Khaled Meshaal on November 5, emptying them of their contents. The forces then proceeded to confiscate Meshaal’s cars and lock the offices.

On November 6, Syrian regime forces repeated that raid on Alami’s office.

Hamas leaders abandoned the Damascus headquarters in January 2012, citing the regime’s brutal crackdown on the Syrian people.

Meshaal is now visiting Gaza for the first time after crossing the border from Egypt on Friday to celebrate Hamas’ 25th anniversary.

He was the target of a botched Israeli assassination attempt in Amman 15 years ago during Benjamin Netanyahu's first term as Israel’s prime minister.

Meshaal’s visit to Gaza comes two weeks after Hamas reached a cease-fire with Israel brokered by Egypt.

Six Israelis and more than 160 Gazans were killed during the flare-up in which Gaza militants fired about 1,300 Iranian-made rockets and missiles at Israeli targets, while Israeli warplanes launched approximately the same number of air strikes on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

Gaza watchers believe Iran proved to be a key player in the Gaza battle. “Her Fajr-5 missile was the star of the face-off.”

The Fajr-5, developed by Iran and also supplied to Hezbollah, has a range of up to 75 kilometers, which means it can hit central Israel from Gaza.

Iranian missile components are reportedly smuggled via Lebanon and Sudan to Egypt’s Sinai and on to the Gaza Strip, where the missiles are assembled locally. 

Why Morsi is the fitting Israel-Hamas pacifier

Clockwise from L.: Gaza victims, Egypt's Morsi and Iran's Supreme Leader

International efforts to wrest a cease-fire from Israel and the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip are gathering momentum.

The two sides are putting forth widely divergent demands to halt five days of violence. The violence saw Israel launch ceaseless air, tank and warship strikes on the Strip and Hamas fire a stream of rockets into Israel, including into the Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas.

By this writing, 84 Palestinians, most of them civilians, have been killed and 720 have been wounded. Three Israeli civilians have died from Hamas rocket fire and a dozen have been wounded.

President Barack Obama said he was in touch with players across the region in hopes of halting the fighting. While defending Israel's right to defend itself against the rocket fire, he also warned of the risks Israel would take if it were to expand its air assault into a ground war.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said Sunday afternoon he would head to the region and "appeal personally for ending the violence." French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu earlier in the day, and an Israeli representative was in Egypt earlier in an attempt to negotiate a peaceful settlement.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is expected to pay a snap visit to Gaza as part of an Arab League delegation to express support and solidarity.

Morocco’s King Mohammed VI has meantime ordered the immediate setting up of a Moroccan field hospital in the Gaza Strip.

The hospital will comprise specialized medical units of the Royal Moroccan Armed Forces, as well as Moroccan civilian physicians and paramedics. The multidisciplinary medical-surgical hospital will reinforce existing medical facilities there.

According to a senior State Department official, Egypt has an important leadership role to play in brokering a cessation of the violence between Hamas and Israel.

Egypt, the official said, “has the relationships in Gaza; Prime Minister Qandil travelled there yesterday and had the opportunity to meet with (Ismail) Haniyeh, and other leaders in Hamas. So we believe that they have the stature, the credibility, and the relationships to be able to persuade Hamas and its allies to stop… There are other actors involved like the Turks and the Qataris and others who also have a role to play. But Egypt’s role is absolutely pivotal.”

Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, believes post-Mubarak Egypt under President Mohamed Morsi, a former leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, “simply can’t cut loose from Gaza’s destiny.”

Charbel explains in a leader comment penned in Arabic:

Other than the rationales of geographic contiguity, security, stability and role, Egypt now has a regime begotten by the revolution and entrusted to the Muslim Brothers by the ballot box.

Consequently, Hamas neither can nor wishes to deal with Morsi’s Egypt the way it dealt with Egypt under Hosni Mubarak.

Israel’s onslaught on Gaza showed the Arab Spring did not let the Palestinian cause fall from its list of priorities. The offensive gave Arab Spring countries the chance to reiterate that injustice to the Palestinians is in their hearts and minds and will have pride of place in their priorities.

The region has changed. More exactly, it is changing.

Despite lingering uncertainties, apprehensions and machinations, the Arab Spring is probably the most important regional event since the 1979 Iranian Revolution.

From this perspective, let’s ponder conditions in the two countries that initiated the Axis of Resistance.

Iran is buckling under the weight of economic sanctions. Her role in the region is melting away after colliding with the Arab Spring, specifically in Syria. Her nuclear program is closely monitored by Western powers.

Syria, the Arab partner in the Axis of Resistance, sees her regime loosing control on the ground and becoming an Arab, Islamic and international pariah.

The Hamas movement, whose leadership resided in Syria, was the Sunnite link in the Axis of Resistance grouping Iran, Syria and Hezbollah. It was also the golden link in the chain because it introduced the Axis’ missiles and modus operandi to the heart of Palestinian territory.

Consisting of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the Palestinian offshoot of the Axis of Resistance played a key role over the past two 20-odd years. Hamas and Islamic Jihad helped exasperate hopes pinned on the Oslo Accords, militarize the Second Intifada, and undermine the successive clout and authority of Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas. Their suicide attacks shored up Israeli hardliners.

With the two Palestinian groups tagging along, Iran and Syria were able to gain veto power on any idea of Palestinian-Israeli or Arab-Israeli peace.

The Arab Spring was a bolt from the blue for Syria. But it allowed Hamas leaders residing in Damascus to nose out the Arab Spring’s Muslim Brotherhood scent.

Although Hamas initially refused to take a stand for or against the Syrian uprising, it was against the grain of its political chief Khaled Meshaal to follow in Hezbollah’s suit and take orders from Iran’s Supreme Leader. Hamas consequently elected to emigrate from Damascus and align itself with the Muslim Brotherhood Supreme Guide based in Egypt.

Israel’s blitz on Gaza came on the heels of such momentous changes. Israeli warplanes pummeled the Strip while Hamas and Islamic Jihad hit back with rockets targeting Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

Remarkably, Hamas hastened to tell everyone trying to broker de-escalation that the address for negotiations is Egypt.

Morsi’s telephone hasn’t stopped ringing. Morsi has no choice but to seek a quick return to calm and normalcy. He cannot see Hamas crushed in Gaza. And he cannot gamble away Egypt’s international ties and financial aid either. He would not risk the Brotherhood’s credentials for running Egypt. 

Russia's Syria policy seen "sitting at a bar"

Funeral for fallen Syrian soldiers (Photo from www.tishreen.info)

Save for Syria, the hodgepodge of news and views I came across this morning while going through the Arab media includes Qatar’s trailblazing diplomacy, which knows no bounds.

Qatari Crown Prince Sheikh Hamad Bin Tamim al-Thani yesterday succeeded in brokering ice-breaking talks in Amman between Jordan’s King Abdullah and Khaled Meshaal, political leader of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas.

It was the latter’s first visit to Jordan since he was expelled from the country in 1999.

Meshaal, who has since been based in Damascus, flew in to Amman on the Qatari crown prince’s private jet from Doha.

On Syria, rhubarbs have now broken out among news reporters about the state of play in Damascus.

Saudi Arabia’s leading daily speaks of:

• “Battles coming nearer to Damascus and reinforcements being placed around the presidential palace”
• “The Damascus suburbs flaming and the regime engaging the Republican Guard,” and
• “Rumors sweeping Damascus after closure of the airport road.”

BBC Middle East editor Jeremy Bowen writes from Syria, “I had no idea before I saw them with my own eyes that the Free Syria Army was so active in and around Damascus.”

Syria’s printed media, however, are “astounded by the flood of rumors and lies triggered by the army’s surgical operation in the surrounds of Damascus.”

Among other news, they highlight a mass funeral for 23 army and “public order” men killed by “treacherous terrorist hands,” the assassination by “armed gangs” of Homs-based agriculture engineer Ms Amal Issa, the theft of 17 government vehicles from a garage in Idlib, and the quasi-licensing by the interior ministry of two new political parties.

Editorially, Lebanese political analyst Iyad Abou-Shakra says the Syrian regime, realizing violence against its opponents is leading nowhere, “is pondering other options. Regrettably, when fascist forces face a dead-end, but remain bent on maintaining their hegemony, they opt for partition. Faced with a lack of ability to rule all the lands of Syria, the regime will fall back on its emergency ‘reserve option.’ It has been building the latter’s infrastructure for some time.”

Wondering how best to save Syria, Abdul Rahman al-Rashed, Saudi boss of Alarabiya TV, says: “A political stand by the Arab League forsaking the regime would entice everyone to pounce on it. An assortment of forces would embrace the main Syrian opposition as the legitimate representative.

“What the Arab League is doing today is cover up the regime’s ugly crimes. As several Syrian opposition figures demanded, the Arab League needs to take off the hand it clasped around the Syrian people’s throat.

“Such solution does not need a plan, or the deployment of forces, or pleas to the Security Council. This will cost the Syrians less pain and blood than providing the regime with an airbag to cushion the effects of collision.”

Emad Adeeb, a leading Egyptian political analyst and the Middle East’s pioneer talk show host, pictures Russian foreign “policy sitting at a bar.”

He believes Russia is so far clinging to five strategic assets in Syria because:

1. Syria remains the most important buyer of Russian arms.
2. Russian arms are paid for either in Syrian cash or Iranian oil.
3. Syria’s Tartus naval base gives the Russian Navy a strategic foothold on the Mediterranean coast.
4. Syria’s Intelligence tentacles in the region feed the Russian spying services.
5. Private Russian oil companies expect Syrian pressure on Beirut to win them Lebanese government contracts to explore for oil and gas off the Lebanese coastline.

“This is not to say the Arab League should not be knocking at Moscow’s door to win Russian support for the UN Syria resolution.” Russia is eager to jump to bed with Washington and the Arab world, but only if the Syria price is right.

A former Soviet diplomat once told me USSR foreign policy was akin to “a bar hostess waiting for the client bidding top price for her tainted drink.”

Is the Arab League's Nabil Elaraby a quisling?

Elaraby meeting with Assad (photo via allvoices.com)

The gutsy question referring to the head of the Arab League is raised in the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat by non-other than its chief editor, Tariq Alhomayed.

In his editorial today, Alhomayed starts by explaining his reasons for casting doubts on the job performance of Nabil Elaraby before passing his judgment. Here in essence is what he wrote in Arabic this morning:

On July 17, 2011, and in the wake of Elaraby's trip to Syria and the remarks he made after meeting with Bashar al-Assad, I wrote an article saying: "The Syrians were very quick to build on the remarks made by the new Arab League secretary-general, Nabil Elaraby, whose statements could not have been made by someone seasoned in politics."

The 10-month old Syrian revolution has so far claimed some 7,000 lives. Thousands more are either detained or gone missing. But we’re back discussing Nabil Elaraby and his positions on Syria.

Mr. Elaraby defended Assad when he met with him in Damascus last July. He is fully aware nothing changed in the Syrian regime’s behavior since. Yet he persists in making odd and ambiguous decisions seemingly defending Assad.

Even at his last press conference in Cairo, Elaraby did not sound convincing on the new Arab peace initiative. It was Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim who spoke rationally and plainly.

Elaraby continues to sing out of tune. He chose Khaled Meshaal to relay a message to Assad, and Gen. al-Dabi to lead the Arab observer mission. He is now lobbying Egypt’s Mohamed ElBaradei to be his Syria envoy only because Assad could be more amenable to the appointment. That’s because of ElBaradei’s stands on the (2007) raid on Syria’s nuclear facility and on Iran’s nuclear program and his criticisms of the West and the Americans then. Is that a joke or a fact?

With all due respect to ElBaradei, what would he do in Syria? Would he pull out as he did in Egypt (when he dropped his presidency bid)? Would he pass from sight when Syrian demonstrators come under fire as he stayed away from Tahrir Square, presumably not to steal the limelight from the youths there?

All this is puzzling and warrants a legitimate query: So long as Elaraby chose Meshaal and al-Dabi and is now lining up ElBaradei, should we expect him to co-opt Azmi Bishara and Mohamed Hassanein Heikal next?

To answer the question in the headline, Elaraby does not seem to be a quisling. But he is far from understanding the region and its variables. A quisling needs to be smarter for sure.

Arab League chief and observers lose their way

Arab League observers in Syria and Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby seem to have lost their way.

Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabr al-Thani, the Qatari prime minister who heads the Arab League’s Syria task force, tells Aljazeera TV the Arab League observer mission is off-track.

So, the League’s Syria task force will meet Sunday to discuss the mission’s task and decide what to do next. Sheikh Hamad admitted the observer mission lacked experience on the ground, being the first to be mandated to monitor implementation of Arab League resolutions by a member-state. For instance, he said, observers busied themselves with delivering food aid and searching for missing people instead of focusing on their core assignment, which is to monitor implementation by Syrian authorities of the protocol they signed. The protocol calls on Syria to withdraw all tanks and armored vehicles from the streets, stop violence against protesters, release all political prisoners, allow Arab and foreign media and rights groups into the country and begin a dialogue with the opposition.

If the killings do not stop, Sheikh Hamad said, turning to the UN for technical and staffing help for the observer mission would be “a waste of time and engage the League in a fruitless venture.”

The Arab League secretary-general meanwhile dismays Tariq Alhomayed, chief editor of the Saudi newspaper of record Asharq Alawsat. Alhomayed wonders in his editorial today: How can Elaraby ask Khaled Meshaal, the Damascus-based leader of Hamas -- “who was until last year a pawn in Assad’s hand” and “whose movement is funded by Iran” -- to plead with Syria’s Assad to halt violence?

“If this is the standard of the Arab League and the way it is run, we won’t be surprised if it solicited the help of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah next to dissuade Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz.”