Iran: Syria being on its deathbed, long live Hamas

Billboards in Gaza City thank Iran for its support in last month's flare-up with Israel

“Tehran opens weapons highway to Hamas,” reads a screamer on Lebanese Hezbollah’s al-Manar portal this morning.

Significantly, the article bylined Qassem Qassem says Tehran has opened an artery of “weapons and cash” to the Hamas Islamic Movement in Gaza “despite the Movement’s break with Syria.”

Qassem says Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has communicated Iran’s decision to his senior aides. He told them Tehran would be supplying a “substantial stockpile of quality weapons” to Hamas and ignoring the latter’s fallout with Syria.

Iran, Syria and Hezbollah make up the so-called “Axis of Resistance.”

Nasrallah briefed his top lieutenants in the wake of a recent visit to Tehran by Hamas politburo member Imad el-Alami.

Qassem says Alami and Iranian leaders agreed during the visit “to sidestep all political discourse” concerning Syria.

Lebanese Hezbollah has since issued a circular banning all members from criticizing Hamas in the print, audio or social media over its Syria stance.

Alami was born in the Gaza Strip in 1956. He holds a Bachelor's degree in civil engineering from Egypt’s Alexandria University. He was held by Israel for two years before his deportation to Lebanon in January 1991 with three other Hamas members. He then settled in Damascus before moving back to Gaza.

In a statement published November 7 on its official website Hamas reported that Syrian security forces raided the office and apartment of Hamas political chief Khaled Meshaal on November 5, emptying them of their contents. The forces then proceeded to confiscate Meshaal’s cars and lock the offices.

On November 6, Syrian regime forces repeated that raid on Alami’s office.

Hamas leaders abandoned the Damascus headquarters in January 2012, citing the regime’s brutal crackdown on the Syrian people.

Meshaal is now visiting Gaza for the first time after crossing the border from Egypt on Friday to celebrate Hamas’ 25th anniversary.

He was the target of a botched Israeli assassination attempt in Amman 15 years ago during Benjamin Netanyahu's first term as Israel’s prime minister.

Meshaal’s visit to Gaza comes two weeks after Hamas reached a cease-fire with Israel brokered by Egypt.

Six Israelis and more than 160 Gazans were killed during the flare-up in which Gaza militants fired about 1,300 Iranian-made rockets and missiles at Israeli targets, while Israeli warplanes launched approximately the same number of air strikes on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

Gaza watchers believe Iran proved to be a key player in the Gaza battle. “Her Fajr-5 missile was the star of the face-off.”

The Fajr-5, developed by Iran and also supplied to Hezbollah, has a range of up to 75 kilometers, which means it can hit central Israel from Gaza.

Iranian missile components are reportedly smuggled via Lebanon and Sudan to Egypt’s Sinai and on to the Gaza Strip, where the missiles are assembled locally. 

Obama’s escape from the Middle to the Far East

Obama with, from top, Thailand's Yingluck Shinawatra, Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi and Cambodia's Hun Sen

Once he clinched a second term as U.S. President, the world expected Barack Obama to appear in the Middle East. Instead, he popped up in the Far East.

Obama's impression, the doyen of Arab commentators Samir Atallah writes in his daily column for Asharq Alawsat, is that democracy has taken hold in the Middle East – end of story.

Proof is that Hillary Clinton, who witnessed the birth of democracy at Tahrir Square, is not staying on. She is bowing out after fitting the exploit and a fragrance of the Arab Spring into her bag.

Hillary Clinton’s predecessor at the State Department, Condoleezza Rice, thinks otherwise. She believes the war in Syria “may well be the last act in the story of the disintegration of the Middle East as we know it” (see below Rice’s think piece for the Washington Post titled “Syria is central to holding together the Mideast”).

Atallah says Clinton cut short her trip with Obama to Myanmar – formerly known as Burma, as in George Orwell’s novel Burmese Days – and flew to Egypt for Israel’s sake. Such a move would not have been made for Syria’s sake. Otherwise, she would have called for arming the Syrian opposition months ago. Or when Obama said the regime in Damascus is in its last days.

Instead of Obama locking horns with China at the UN Security Council to stop the bloodbath in Syria, he chose to hassle Beijing on its turf in Asia and try to pinch allies from China’s “back garden” in Burma and Cambodia.

The saying earlier was that America is in the Middle East for oil. The saying today is that America will be self-reliant by 2020 (through new technology including hydraulic fracturing of underground rock formations). Or as sagacious European Javier Solana one stated, “The Atlantic is the past, the Pacific is the future.”

Chances are señor Solana and Obama are both jumping the gun and simplifying matters much too soon. As Condoleezza Rice wrote, allowing the Middle East to fall to pieces is unwise. This is not a matter of oil.

In today’s Global Village, the Middle East is a pivotal strategic spot more than at any time. Confessional and sectarian wars threaten not only the region but security far and wide. If America can dispense with Arab oil as señor Solana suggests, Europe cannot – not for the coming 50 years, at least.

Burma won’t make America the world’s sole superpower. No would Cambodia or Thailand.

Obama didn’t convince his voters of his Asian tour days after reelection. When he escaped to Burma, Gaza blew up in his face.

____________

Following is Condoleezza Rice’s think piece for the Washington Post:

Syria is central to holding together the Mideast

By Condoleezza Rice, Published: November 24

Condoleezza Rice was secretary of state from 2005 to 2009

The civil war in Syria may well be the last act in the story of the disintegration of the Middle East as we know it. The opportunity to hold the region together and to rebuild it on a firmer foundation of tolerance, freedom and, eventually, democratic stability is slipping from our grasp.

Egypt and Iran have long, continuous histories and strong national identities. Turkey does as well, except for the matter of the Kurds, who are still largely unassimilated, mistrusted by Ankara and tempted by the hope of independent nationhood.

Every other important state is a modern construct, created by the British and the French, who drew borders like lines on the back of an envelope, often without regard for ethnic and sectarian differences. The results: A Bahrain that is 70 percent Shiite, governed by a Sunni monarch. Saudi Arabia was created with a 10 percent Shiite population in its richest provinces to the east. Iraq is 65 percent Shiite, 20 percent Sunni Arab, and a mix of Kurds and others, all ruled until 2003 by an iron-fisted Sunni dictator. Jordan’s population is almost 70 percent Palestinian. Lebanon is roughly divided among Sunnis, Shiites and Christians. And then there is Syria: a conglomerate of Sunnis, Shiites, Kurds and others, ruled by the Alawite minority.

The fragile state structure of the Middle East has been held together for decades by monarchs and dictators. But as the desire for freedom has spread from Tunis to Cairo to Damascus, authoritarians have lost their grip. The danger now is that the artificial states could fly apart.

In Iraq, after overthrowing Saddam Hussein, the United States hoped that a fledging multi-ethnic, multi-confessional democracy could do what authoritarians could not: give all of these groups a stake in a common future. To an extent it has, with elections repeatedly producing inclusive governments. But the institutions are young and fragile, and they are groaning under the weight of the region’s broader sectarian explosion. The conflict in Syria is pushing Iraq and others to the breaking point. At the same time, U.S. disengagement has tempted Iraqi politicians to move toward sectarian allies for survival. If Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki cannot count on the Americans, he will take no risks with Tehran.

The great mistake of the past year has been to define the conflict with Bashar al-Assad’s regime as a humanitarian one. The regime in Damascus has been brutal, and many innocent people have been slaughtered. But this was no replay of Libya. Much more is at stake.

As Syria crumbles, Sunnis, Shiites and Kurds are being drawn into a regional web of sectarian allegiances. Karl Marx once called on workers of the world to unite across national boundaries. He told them that they had more in common with each other than with the ruling classes that oppressed them in the name of nationalism. Marx exhorted workers to throw off the “false consciousness” of national identity.

Today’s Karl Marx is Iran. It envisions the spread of its influence among Shiites, uniting them under the theocratic flag of Tehran — destroying the integrity of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Lebanon. Iran uses terrorist groups, Hezbollah and the Shiite militias in southern Iraq to do its bidding. Syria is the linchpin, the bridge into the Arab Middle East. Tehran no longer hides the fact that its security forces are working in Syria to prop up Assad. In this context, Tehran’s sprint toward a nuclear weapon is a problem not just for Israel but the region as a whole.

In response, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other neighboring powers arm and support Sunni factions. The Turks are being drawn into the conflict, desperately fearful that the Kurds will break away in Syria and push their brethren in Turkey to do the same. Missile and mortar strikes are increasingly common across the borders of Israel and Turkey. Ankara’s cries to NATO for help last month should have gotten our attention.

But where is the United States? America has spent months trying to get the Russians and the Chinese to agree to toothless U.N. resolutions to “end the bloodshed,” as though Moscow will abandon Assad and Beijing really cares about chaos in the Middle East. Vladimir Putin is not a sentimental man. But if he believes that Assad can survive, he will do nothing to undermine him.

In recent days, France, Britain and Turkey have stepped into the diplomatic vacuum to recognize a newly formed opposition that is broadly representative of all Syrians. The United States should follow their lead and then vet and arm the unified group with defensive weapons on the condition that it pursues an inclusive post-Assad framework. The United States and its allies should also consider establishing a no-fly zone to protect the innocent. America’s weight and influence are needed. Leaving this to regional powers, whose interests are not identical to ours, will only exacerbate the deepening sectarianism.

Certainly there are risks. After more than a year of brutal conflict, the most extreme elements of the opposition — including al-Qaeda — have been empowered. Civil wars tend to strengthen the worst forces. The overthrow of Assad could indeed bring these dangerous groups to power.

But the breakdown of the Middle East state system is a graver risk. Iran will win, our allies will lose, and for decades the region’s misery and violence will make today’s chaos look tame.

War is not receding in the Middle East. It is building to a crescendo. Our elections are over. Now, America must act.

Tehran on charm offensive in Gaza and Amman

Ambassador Moslehzadeh and the Jaafar ibn Abi Taleb Mausoleum

The Islamic Republic of Iran, home to the world’s largest Shiite population, took two steps forward this week to keep the predominantly Sunnite Arab world on the back foot.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad telephoned Hamas Movement’s prime minister in Gaza, Ismail Haniyeh, to acclaim “the victory of the Resistance” in its eight-day clash with Israel.

Israel launched its air blitz on Gaza -- which it says was aimed at ending rocket fire from Palestinian militants -- with the killing of a Hamas military leader last week.

A total of 162 Gazans and six Israelis were killed during the flare-up in which Gaza militants fired about 1,300 Iranian-made rockets and missiles at Israeli targets, while Israeli warplanes launched approximately the same number of air strikes on the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.

Gaza watchers believe Iran proved to be a key player in the Gaza battle. “Her Fajr-5 missile was the star of the face-off.”

Ahmadinejad told Haniyeh Iran stands by the Palestinian people, to which the Hamas leader replied the victory belongs to the Muslim world.

As an Egypt-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was taking hold on Wednesday night, Iran made a very public overture to Jordan in what is perceived as another move to extend its influence in the region.

Iran’s ambassador in Amman, Dr. Mostafa Moslehzadeh, said late Wednesday Tehran is ready to supply Jordan with oil and energy for the next 30 years in exchange for Jordanian goods and “religious tourism” by Shiites in the kingdom.

Moslehzadeh made the barter offer during the Fil-Sameem (“In Essence”) program aired on Jordan's private Josat TV channel.

His comments came after a decision by the Jordanian government earlier this month to cut fuel subsidies sparked mass and sometimes violent popular protests, including surprising calls for King Abdullah II to step down.

Since the lifting of subsidies, the price of domestic gas has risen by more than 50%. Diesel and kerosene prices, meanwhile, have increased by a third.

Last year, Saudi Arabia gave Jordan a last-minute $1.4 billion cash handout to keep Jordan afloat, but it withheld aid this year, officials have said.

According to Scott Lasensky, a senior research associate at the United States Institute for Peace’s Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention, oil has always been an important consideration in Jordan’s Arab relations.

“Since the 1980s, not only was Iraq one of the largest players in Jordan’s economy, but also Saddam [Hussein] singlehandedly guaranteed most of Jordan’s energy needs at below-market prices. Oil lay at the heart of Jordan’s late 1990s trade boom with Iraq…

“Baghdad was a generous benefactor. Jordan now has a major stake in either restoring or replacing that munificence. In a bid for greater influence with Amman, Iraq sold oil to Jordan at below market prices after the UN Oil-for-Food Program was established in Iraq; in 2000, with prices around $30 a barrel, Jordan received Iraqi oil at $9.50 a barrel. Moreover, Iraq allowed Jordan, a country without domestic energy resources, to pay for the subsidized oil with consumer goods…

“Exports to Iraq reached $420 million in 2001, nearly a quarter of Jordan’s exports.

“The system amounted to an annual grant, in real terms, of approximately $400–600 million a year. According to some estimates, the benefit was even higher—$500 million to $1 billion annually.

“In the post-Saddam era, Jordan was able to secure its oil needs on-and-off from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates…”

But the generosity of the Gulf Arab oil-producers has waned and post-Saddam Iraq is now under Iran’s thumb.

In its coverage today of Moslehzadeh’s remarks, Saudi Arabia’s leading daily Asharq Alawsat says, “Observers believe the Iranian offer was timed to coincide with the delay in Gulf aid to Jordan. Jordanian official circles presume the aid – which Jordanian Prime Minister Abdullah Ensour has estimated at $1 billion -- won’t be coming at all.”

Asharq Alawsat quotes its unnamed sources as saying, “Jordan is unlikely to take up any Iranian offer. The one made [by Moslehzadeh] is akin to a political tradeoff – oil in exchange for religious tourism and political stands a propos the Syria crisis mirroring Iran’s.”

The Saudi daily says there are “several ancient sites in Jordan that are important to Muslims generally and Shiites in particular. Among the latter is the Mausoleum of Jaafar ibn Abi Taleb, the brother of Imam Ali and the cousin and son-in-law of Prophet Muhammad. The mausoleum is in the town of al-Mazar al-Janoubi near Karak, south of the capital Amman.”

Tsar Putin, Iran’s magic carpet and the Syria pawn

Vladimir Putin (Photo from 02varvara.wordpress.com)

Russian and Syrian media are at pains denying a Moscow-datelined news report carried late Monday by Russia’s Interfax news agency titled “Russian Black Sea Fleet sailors on mission off Syria.”

The report read verbatim:

The Russian Black Sea Fleet's Iman tanker with an anti-terrorist squad aboard is on a mission off Syria, and the Russian Equator reconnaissance ship is operating in the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea Fleet Staff told Interfax-AVN on Monday.

"The Iman medium seagoing tanker has successfully sailed from Sevastopol to the Syrian cost. It is staying at the Tartous port to perform its mission. Marines make up the anti-terrorist squad based on the tanker," the Staff said.

"The Equator special-purpose ship is also performing a Mediterranean mission. Over the past 45 days, the Black Sea Fleet Equator reconnaissance ship has covered the distance of several thousands miles in the rough seas while accomplishing its tasks," the Staff said.

The Iman "replaced the Ivan Bubnov large seagoing tanker, which had been sent to Syria for demonstrating the Russian presence in the turbulent region and possible evaluation of Russian citizens," the Staff said. The Ivan Bubnov was also anchored in the Tartous port.

Three leading figures in the Arab media today dismiss the spin subsequently put on the news by Moscow and Damascus.

They are: Tariq Alhomayed, editor in chief of Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, Abdul Rahman al-Rashed, managing director of Alarabiya TV network, and Ghassan al-Imam, a veteran Syrian writer and journalist based in Paris.

According to Imam, “After an extended absence of 20 years, Russia is making a great Middle East comeback. Whether Tsar (Vladimir) Putin reaches Damascus on Iran’s magic carpet, aboard a Russian fleet or atop Howitzers that pounded Baba Amr, Idlib and Deraa, he is trying to fill the vacuum created by (Barack) Obama’s retreat.

“Putin skillfully improvised a new Russian chess game blending contrasting interests of several countries. The game is free of ideology. It features Tsar Putin, (Ayatollah Ali) Khamenei in the rank of Shah and (Imam) Khomeini, plus a Syrian pawn complemented by pawns in Lebanon and Gaza.

“With this odd mix of actors and supporting actors, the Russian director wants a (Syria) settlement passed that would leave America out in the cold and the Arab pawns under Iran’s thumb. The Tsar would retain his clout and momentum in a vital region sitting at his doorstep. The turbaned Shah signed on to the Russian production bonding Russian and Iranians interests in Syria and elsewhere in the Arab region.” 

Alhomayed ridicules the unconvincing Russian denials. One such denial said the Iman was carrying fuel and food supplies for the Russian Black Sea and Northern fleets “that are engaged in anti-piracy patrols in the gulf of Aden.” This followed the original claim made in the Interfax report, which talked of “the “possible evacuation of Russian citizens” by sea from Syria.

Rashed in turns notes Moscow never before backed an Arab regime so staunchly, “except Nasser’s (Egyptian) regime after its (1967) defeat by Israel.”

He says Russia’s political and military muscle plus cash from “Iran and Iraq” will prolong the Syrian regime’s time and the Syrian people’s sufferings. “Nevertheless, the Syrian regime is bound to fall in the end.”