Fatwa from Qom endorses fighting alongside Assad

Grand Ayatollah Kazim al-Haeri (above) and Saudi Prince Turki al Faisal (top)

“First ever fatwa from Qom endorses fighting alongside Assad,” Saudi Arabia’s newspaper of records, Asharq Alawsat, banners on its front page today.

The paper was referring to the first public religious edict issued by a leading Shiite Muslim cleric widely followed by Iraqi militants permitting Shiites to fight in Syria’s war alongside President Bashar Assad’s forces.

The fatwa by Iran-based Grand Ayatollah Kazim al-Haeri, one of the mentors of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, comes as thousands of Shiite fighters mostly from Iraq and Lebanon play a major role in the battles.

The call likely will increase the sectarian tones of the war, which pits overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim rebels against members of Assad’s Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam.

Al-Haeri is based in the holy city of Qom, Iran’s religious capital. Among his followers, according to The Associated Press, are many fighters with the feared Shiite militia, Asa’eb Ahl al-Haq, or Band of the Righteous, an Iranian-backed group that repeatedly attacked U.S. forces in Iraq and says it is sending fighters to Syria. That militia is headed by white-turbaned Shiite cleric Qais al-Khazali, who spent years in U.S. detention but was released after he was handed over to the Iraqi government.

Many Shiite gunmen already fight around the holy shrine of Sayyidah Zaynab just south of Damascus. The shrine is named after the Prophet Muhammad’s granddaughter and is popular with Iranian worshippers and tourists.

Asharq Alawsat says the fatwa sanctions the participation of Iraqi fighters in the protection of Sayyidah Zaynab shrine as well as in the defense of Assad’s regime.

Asked by a follower whether it is legitimate to travel to Syria to fight, al-Haeri replied: “The battle in Syria is not for the defense of the shrine of Sayyidah Zaynab but it is a battle of infidels against Islam and Islam should be defended.”

“Fighting in Syria is legitimate and those who die are martyrs,” al-Haeri said in comments posted on his official website. An official at his office confirmed that the comments are authentic.

Asa’eb Ahl al-Haq currently has about 1,000 fighters in Syria and many others were volunteering to go join the war, said Ashtar al-Kaabi, an Asa’eb Ahl al-Haq member who organizes sending Shiite fighters from Iraq to Syria. Asked whether the increase is related to al-Haeri’s fatwa, al-Kaabi said: “Yes. This fatwa has had wide effect.”

The rebels are mainly backed by Saudi Arabia and Turkey, Sunni powerhouses in the Middle East.

The main Western-backed Syrian opposition group, the Syrian National Coalition, claimed recently that Shiite fighters from 14 different factions are fighting alongside Assad forces in Syria. The coalition said those fighters are brought to Syria with the help of Iraq’s Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, another Iranian pawn.

Lebanon’s Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah also openly joined Assad’s forces in May after hiding its participation for months. Since then, the group has helped Assad forces recapture a string of towns and villages from rebels.

Separately, an influential Saudi Arabian prince said on Saturday Assad’s opponents have been at an impossible disadvantage since the start of the Syrian conflict because the United States and Britain refused to help them.

The United States and Britain suspended non-lethal aid to northern Syria last Thursday after reports that Islamic Front -- a union of six major rebel groups -- had taken buildings belonging to the Free Syrian Army's (FSA) Syrian Military Council on the border with Turkey.

Former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal criticized the decision, saying the two countries had left the moderate FSA to fend for itself.

"What's more damaging is that since the beginning of this conflict, since the FSA arose as a response to Assad's impunity, Britain and the U.S. did not come forward and provide the necessary aid to allow it to defend itself and the Syrian people from Assad's killing machine," Prince Turki told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Policy Conference in Monaco.

"You have a situation where one side is lopsided with weapons like the Assad regime is, with tanks and missiles -- you name it, he is getting it -- and the other side is screaming out to get defensive weapons against these lethal weapons that Assad has," Turki said. "Why should he stop the killing?"

"That to me is why the FSA is in not as prominent position as it should be today, because of the lack of international support for it. The fighting is going to continue and the killing is going to continue."

The U.S. gave us the impression that they were going to do things in Syria that they finally didn't," Prince Turki said outside the World Policy Conference in Monaco. "The aid they're giving to the Free Syrian Army is irrelevant. Now they say they're going to stop the aid: OK, stop it. It's not doing anything anyway."

Saudi Arabia and Qatar are the main backers of the main opposition Syrian National Coalition and the FSA.

Assad is backed by Iran, which struck a preliminary deal on with world powers in November to limit sanctions relief for more international oversight of its nuclear program.

Western countries have held back from giving heavy weapons such as anti-tank and missile launchers for fear they could fall into the wrong hands.

"For me ... (to bring a) successful end to this conflict would be to bring an end to the Assad regime. It is because of the Assad regime that everything is happening," Prince Turki said.

Commanders from the Islamic Front are due to hold talks with U.S. officials in Turkey in coming days, rebel and opposition sources said on Saturday, reflecting the extent to which the Islamic Front alliance has eclipsed the FSA brigades.

A rebel fighter with the Islamic Front said he expected the talks to discuss whether the United States would help arm the front and assign to it responsibility for maintaining order in the rebel-held areas of northern Syria.

Prince Turki told Reuters while he hoped Iran was serious with regard its interim nuclear deal, it needed to provide some confidence-building measures with its Gulf Arab neighbors, beginning in Syria.

"Iran is coming at us with a broad smile. Let's hope they are serious about that. We would like to see Iran first of all get out of Syria," he said.

Reporting in context for yesterday’s New York Times, Steven Erlanger wrote in part:

…The Saudis have been particularly shaken by Mr. Obama’s refusal to intervene forcefully in the Syrian civil war, especially his recent decision not to punish President Bashar al-Assad of Syria with military strikes even after evidence emerged that Mr. Assad’s government used chemical weapons on its own citizens.

Instead, Mr. Obama chose to seek congressional authorization for a strike, and when that proved difficult to obtain, he cooperated with Russia to get Syria to agree to give up its chemical weapons. Prince Turki and Israeli officials have argued that the agreement merely legitimized Mr. Assad, and on Sunday, the prince called the world’s failure to stop the conflict in Syria “almost a criminal negligence.”

Syria, Iran, nuclear issues and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were the main focus for Prince Turki, who spoke at the World Policy Conference, a gathering of officials and intellectuals largely drawn from Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.

Saudi unhappiness with Iran’s growing power in the region is no secret, and the Saudis, who themselves engage with Iran, have no problem with the United States trying to do the same, the prince said. But he complained that bilateral talks between Iranian and American officials had been kept secret from American allies, sowing further mistrust.

The prince said Iran must give up its ambitions for a nuclear weapons program — Iran says its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes — and stop using its own troops and those of Shiite allies like the Lebanese organization Hezbollah to fight in neighboring countries, like Syria and Iraq. “The game of hegemony toward the Arab countries is not acceptable,” the prince said. Just as Arabs will not dress as Westerners do, he said, “we won’t accept to wear Iranian clothes, either.”

A prevalent theme at the conference was the waning of American influence in the Middle East. Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, said: “Today we live in a zero-polar, or a-polar, world. No one power or group of powers can solve all the problems.”The United States, Mr. Fabius said, was often criticized for being “overpresent, but now it is being criticized for not being present enough.” While “it is perfectly understandable” that Mr. Obama would refrain from new military engagements in the Middle East, he said, “it creates a certain vacuum” that has allowed Russia “to make a comeback on the world scene” and has encouraged France to intervene in the Central African Republic, Libya and Mali…

Iraq’s Maliki: Syria's Assad is going nowhere

Maliki with Assad in Damascus in 2007

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki says the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad “does not want an exit pass. Impossible! The regime is not looking for a way out. It is not free to accept or refuse because its internal circumstances dictate it should stay put and fight to the finish.”

Maliki was speaking in a wide-ranging interview with Adel al-Tarifi, the newly named editor-in-chief of the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat.

The 3,800-word interview published today was conducted in Cairo on the sidelines of the just-concluded summit meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).

Here, in his words to Asharq Alawsat, is Maliki’s full take on Syria:

Initially, I spent two years in Syria before moving [in1982] to the Ahvaz area in Iran. I went back to Syria in 1989 before returning to Iraq 16 years later.

I have memories there [in Syria]. I have lots of love for it. I miss it. I crave to live there.

I am choked with pain because the country could have been more stable and harmonious. Syria today is exposed to ruin and the total destruction of its institutions and homes. And frankly, no one sees anything at the end of the tunnel.

Because I lived in Syria for many long years, I am familiar with the nature of Syria’s social structure. The longstanding sectarian strife between so-called “Alawites” and “Sunnites” – including mutual massacres -- is an open secret. The Alawites were able to regain power. That’s why the entrenchment is difficult to surmount.

Accordingly, those who believed the regime would surrender and withdraw were in the wrong.

I told them: No the regime won’t surrender or withdraw because that would mean its demise. Given the sectarian background, it’s like telling a person to choose between “dead and deadest” whether the person resists or not. Hence the motto, “Don’t give them the courage of despair.”

In reality, the Alawites were given “the courage of despair.” That’s why their men and women are fighting with their teeth for their survival.

None of that is new to me. I saw it as clear as day.

I said it in Washington to [Barack] Obama, [Joe] Biden] and [Hillary] Clinton.

When they said, “President Assad would fall in two months,” my answer was, “Not even in two years.”

They then said, “That’s the information we have.”

My answer was, “No problem. I know Syria very well. They [Alawites] will fight back in tandem with the secularists, Christians and others. It will snowball until it becomes a proxy war.”

Their answer was: “No, that won’t happen.”

The problem has now turned into a proxy war, not a Syrian civil war. It has grown into a proxy regional war, with Russia and America also involved in both battle and dialogue.

It seems they have lately agreed on a solution to the crisis.

All our feelings and emotions are supportive of the Syrian people and their quest for democracy, freedoms, including the freedoms of expression and association.

The [pre-uprising] atmosphere was unacceptable. But to express [grievances] that way led the country to ruin. No one knows how Syria can be rebuilt.

However, we hope the crisis ends in a way allowing Syrians to realize their demands, Syria to recover its stability and the killings to stop.

Without its cessation, violence will increase and so will the arming of both sides, leading them to believe they can settle the issue [by force]. That could be true elsewhere. But in Syria, the force of arms won’t settle the battle.

The regime does not want an exit pass. Impossible! The regime is not looking for a way out. It is not free to accept or refuse because its internal circumstances dictate it should stay put and fight to the finish.

The gamble was on outside forces intervening, as happened in Iraq. But it seems the Iraq template cannot be duplicated in Syria or in other places because it is too burdensome.

Thus, the regime’s insistence on its options can be traced back to its accurate reading of the international map. It knew that what happened in Iraq is impermissible for Syria, which explains the repeated Russian and Chinese vetoes [at the UN Security Council].

The Syrian regime is smarter than the regime of Saddam Hussein, and more capable of analyzing and adapting to shifts. Saddam used to say, “God is on our side, so how can America and Satan win?”

[Regime] Syrians on the other hand have political insight. Their political map reading was correct.  They dumped their problem in Russia’s lap.

We in Iraq took a neutral stand on the issue because Syrian unrest affects our country first and foremost. We were worried al-Qaeda would seize a new opportunity in Syria. In effect, Jabhat al-Nusra and other offshoots of al-Qaeda found themselves in Syria. This affects us directly in Iraq.

After we thrashed al-Qaeda in Iraq, we now dread its return through the Syrian door under a new [Syrian] regime.

That’s why we chose to remain neutral, saying we are neither with the regime nor with the opposition.

We visualized a solution, which we shared with Kofi Annan then Lakhdar Brahimi, with some delegations to the Arab summit [in Baghdad]. Our perceived solution is where dialogue reached today.

There is no choice other than a peaceful settlement. It seems to me an agreement on one is looming on the horizon.

That’s what Syrian National Coalition leader Moaz al-Khatib talked about, despite the brouhaha his proposal created in Coalition ranks.

I don’t think Khatib made his [talks] offer without sensing an international decision to go that route, whereby sequentially: a new government is formed, Bashar al-Assad stays, elections are held, a consensual government of national unity is set up, Assad would not run for another term.

That’s the reality as it is, whether acceptable or otherwise, whether we like it or not…

That’s the only peaceful solution on the table. Calls for Assad’s exit are vehemently disapproved by Russia. He refuses and Russia objects.

But would he [Assad] stay during the peaceful solution and then run [for re-election]?

It seems the solution provides for him to stay but not run [for another term]. He would stay in the shadow of a new government comprising opposition and regime figures. It would also be balanced so as to get things done. 

National elections under international supervision would be next. These would yield a constituent national assembly to either draft a new constitution or revise the existing one.

A government would then be set up in keeping with the weight of representation in Parliament.

That’s what we believe.

Pro-Iran Maliki and Syria war risk fracturing Iraq

Iraqi political analyst Ahmad al-Sharifi and a map showing Iraq's provinces  

Iraqi Premier Nouri al-Maliki’s drive to sideline the country’s Arab Sunnites, his harassment of ethnic Kurds in autonomous Kurdistan, his subservience to Iran and his support of the Syrian regime risk fragmenting Iraq and embroiling Jordan.

The arrest of bodyguards assigned to Finance Minister Rafei al-Essawi, one of Iraq’s most prominent Sunnite politicians, while searching his home and offices on December 20, sparked week-long mass protests in western Iraq's Sunnite province.

The protests in the predominantly Sunnite provinces of Anbar and Salahuddin have blocked the country’s highway to neighboring Syria and Jordan.

Demonstrators torched pictures of Maliki and the Iranian flag and flown the banner of the Free Syrian Army.

“Why doesn't Maliki go after criminals and outlaws among the Shiites who sit in parliament and government, and are well-known for their atrocities over the years?

“The answer is clear. He wants to shut the mouths that criticize him to turn this country into a pure Shiite one affiliated to Iran,” a protester charged.

Essawi said Maliki was deliberately seeking to stoke sectarian strife between Sunnites and Shiites by targeting Sunnite national figures.

The incident was essentially a replay of a similar crackdown in December 2011 targeting Iraqi Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, also a leading Sunnite politician.

Maliki’s Shiite-dominated government charged Hashemi with running death squads. He has been sentenced to death multiple times in absentia.

Iraq has an estimated population of 31 million, roughly including 15 million Shiites, nine million Sunnites and five million ethnic Kurds.

The move against Essawi also came amid growing tensions between the Maliki government and Kurdistan, which have seen Iraqi troops and the Kurdish Peshmerga militia facing off against each other in disputed territory in the autonomous Kurdistan region north of the country.

Ahmad al-Moussawi Makki reporting today for the Lebanese daily al-Akhbar under the title, “The Anbar war: Gateway to partition,” suggests the most alarming aspect of the ongoing Sunnite protests are the calls for regional autonomy in Anbar and other provinces in the northwest where the Sunnites are in majority – a status similar to that of the Kurds in autonomous Kurdistan.

Makki says some of the protesters are even clamoring for setting up the “State of Western Iraq.”

He quotes Iraq’s respected political strategy analyst Ahmad al-Sharifi as telling him: “These sit-ins and demonstrations are meant to pave the way for Iraq’s partition. It’s an objective shared by many Iraqi political leaders. You can tell by the flags raised by demonstrators – the flags of the Iraqi Free Army and the Kurdistan region. All this heralds the so-called New Middle East.”

Sharifi says Maliki’s whistle-stop visit earlier this to Amman, where he offered to prop up the cash-strapped Jordanian economy, was aimed at preempting the empowerment of Islamist forces in the Hashemite Kingdom “because the Islamists’ advent to power in Jordan would lay the cornerstone for declaring the State of Western Iraq.”

Sharifi adds, “In addition to a vast oil field discovery, an enormous field containing as much as 53 trillion cubic feet of natural gas was found in western Iraq lately.”

The finds, together with the intractable problems between Baghdad and Kurdistan, are the harbingers of Iraq’s dismemberment – “perhaps six months from now,” according to Sharifi.

Syria

Iraq’s fragile power-sharing government has been lurching from crisis to crisis. Should today's protests in Anbar provide a mass show of force, it may add to concerns that Syria’s increasingly sectarian war, where majority Sunnites are battling a quasi-Shiite ruler backed by Iran, will push Iraq back to the Sunnite-Shiite butchery of 2005-07.

When fugitive Vice President Hashemi was asked in an interview with Thursday’s pan-Arab daily al-Hayat if he had evidence Maliki supports President Bashar al-Assad’s Syrian regime, he said:

“There is conclusive evidence. Maliki acknowledged in a statement weeks ago that the Iraqi government is no longer able to inspect Iranian planes [overflying Iraq] after the pledges he made to the Arab League and the United Nations.

“Since he first made the pledge to the U.S. administration, I said this man is lying and would only inspect aircraft carrying medicine and medical equipment. This happened on two occasions. He inspected a plane coming from Iran and a second one coming from Syria, after it unloaded its full cargo of militias, explosives and other weapons. He called it a search.

“The media is focusing on aviation, but the main problem is land corridors. According to my information, there are endless means of overland transportation, from Zurbatiyah on the Iraq-Iran border to the al-Waleed port of entry [between Syria and Iraq]. There is a stream of civilian convoys with tinted windows heading from Iran towards Syria... These convoys don’t stop at checkpoints, and no one knows what they are carrying. I think this is part of the scenario to support the Syrian regime and increase the suffering of the Syrian people, regretfully.”

Hashemi added, “When the reference of the officials in Maliki’s sectarian regime is Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, what do you expect…?

“I suspect the war machine killing the Syrian people is run by Iran.”

Swap on the cards: Iraq-Maliki for Syria-Assad

Maliki (top) and Assad in meetings with Khamenei

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is playing his regional trump card: Iraq to replace Syria and Iraq’s powerful Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to supersede Syria’s embattled Alawite President Bashar al-Assad.

Tehran’s theocratic government and Baghdad’s Shiite-dominated leadership have been moving closer all the time. And both share a similar interest in supporting Damascus.

Iraq abstained from a 2011 Arab League vote to suspend Syria’s membership. It is now quietly shipping crucial fuel oil supplies to Assad’s regime.

Iraq has also been laundering money for the Islamic Republic to help it overcome sanctions and ferry weapons and fighters to the Assad government.

Since it promised to ask Syria-bound airplanes passing through its airspace to land for random inspections after Washington said they could be ferrying arms to Damascus, Baghdad searched one cargo plane only.

At the same time, an agreement between senior Iraqi and Iranian officials allowed Tehran to make larger and more systematic transfers of weapons and fighters to Syria overland via Iraq.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be travelling to Baghdad shortly to confer with Maliki.

Maliki, who is in Moscow on a working visit to consolidate political, economic and defense ties and discuss developments in Syria, meets later today with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A joint statement issued after Maliki’s talks on Tuesday with his counterpart Dmitry Medvedev said more than $4.2 billion in arms deals were agreed between the two sides as part of a tighter military cooperation plan.

Moscow will supply 30 Mil Mi-28NE night/all-weather capable attack helicopters, and 50 Pantsir-S1 gun-missile short-range air defense systems. The contracts are among the biggest ever signed between Iraq and Russia.

Further discussions were also said to be underway for Iraq’s eventual acquisition of a large group of MiG-29 fighters and helicopters along with heavy weaponry.

Russian arms industry analyst Russian Pukhov of the Center for Analysis of Strategy and Technologies, a Moscow-based think tank, tells Novosti the deal showed Baghdad's desire to break Washington's monopoly of arms supplies to Iraq.

"It's clear that America's influence on Iraq has been excessive. The Shiite government of this country is starting to conduct itself more independently of Washington, and more looking toward Iran," he said.

Russia is seeking to take its ties with Iraq to a new level and win almost certain support for its position on Syria.

Baghdad needs Moscow’s help in defense and military areas and needs arms to “defend itself and fight terrorism,” Maliki said in the Russian Foreign Ministry mansion on Monday.

Tariq Alhomayed, editor-in-chief of the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, believes Maliki aspires to be Assad’s “substitute” in the region.

Alhomayed explains in today’s leader:

The Iraqi premier’s visit to Russia and his signing of a large arms deal with Moscow evoke ruminations to ponder as to strategic choices and regional power balances, chiefly as regards Syria

Maliki is obviously trying to reconcile the irreconcilable. He is after simultaneous alliances with Tehran, Washington and Moscow, something no one was able to do in the region.

Turkey’s zero-problems foreign policy finds Ankara today immersed in the region’s problems. Independently of policy, problems pop up even when you ignore them. And they will drown you if you don’t tackle them properly.

A huge Russian arms deal won’t rebuild the Iraqi army, not when the U.S. continues to train and equip the Iraqi military.

It is an open secret that Moscow’s chief arms clients are either isolated Arab regimes, or ones trying to blackmail the U.S. and Europe for political gain.

If Iraq wanted to be an active Arab power player supportive of democracy and stability, why do a deal with Moscow, chief spoiler of a UN Security Council solution for Syria?

All evidence suggests Maliki yearns for superseding Assad. He is reassuring Moscow that it has a client ready to buy Russian weapons at present.

What Iraq has done is simply gift the Russians an alternative to Assad’s regime. Moscow can now claim it is far from being isolated in the Arab world.

Maliki hankers after superseding Assad in the region, albeit rolled out in new packaging. The new packaging will prove faulty nevertheless, for how can Maliki square the Tehran-Washington-Moscow circle or forge exceptional ties with his fellow-Arab countries?

Maliki’s wish to serve in Assad’s stead in the region transpires from his own remarks – that Baghdad needs Moscow’s help “to fight terrorism.”

Russia has been regurgitating “to fight terrorism” since the outbreak of the Syrian Revolution.

With the Russians taking “terrorists” to mean “Sunnites,” Maliki comes along to seek their cooperation in fighting them.

No need to think long and hard: Maliki aspires to supplant Assad in the region as the protector of its minorities and all the rest.

Iraq et al: Without electricity -- كهربا ماكو

Sulaymaniyah (top) & Erbil are well-lit but Baghdad is trapped in a maze of snatched cables 

The colloquial Iraqi expression “ماكو for maco,” means “without,” “deprived of” or “lacking.”

Sulaymaniyah and Erbil (also written Arbil or Irbil) are the major cities in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region in northern Iraq.

About 100 miles separate Sulaymaniyah from Erbil, which is the capital of autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan.

A trip to the region by Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, must have elicited his think piece, published today in Arabic:

Three men from different backgrounds chose to renew their old friendship in Sulaymaniyah.

The three had paid dearly for dreaming early on of an Iraq free of Saddam Hussein.

One of the threesome had fought for years in the rugged mountains. The other had spent a good part of his life as a subversive. The third got to serve time in an assortment of Baathist jails.

I chanced to attend their cheerful get-together.

After an absence of about two years, I was overawed by Erbil’s evolution.

Erbil is in a race against time, hoping to become another Dubai: high-rise buildings, shopping malls, exceptional vivacity, a rush of entrepreneurs and investors, and homes and streets full of light.

Sulaymaniyah is following suit.

It seems the people of Iraqi Kurdistan are bent on making up for time lost.

There was little in the dinner conversation about the pains of bygone years, but much about progress, reconstruction, investment and stability.

The person sitting next to me at the dining table asked about my impressions.

I said I was pleasantly surprised but passed up critical queries about travelling through the outskirts of Kirkuk.

I was heartened to learn that to forestall fraud and corruption, the Kurdistan Region had a few years back devolved the issue of electric power to the private sector.

The result is the Kurdish Region enjoys 24-hour electricity and is currently selling excess power supply to governorates in the vicinity.

I was overjoyed because, being Lebanese, I suffer from the “electricity complex.”

The Lebanese civil war plunged my native country into decades-long power cuts that have yet to end despite the wastage of billions of dollars and the ceaseless shuffling of crooks and charlatans.

I did not tell my dining companion I was envious, especially that I believe darkness in Lebanon caused by outages is only part of the pitch-black darkness likely to envelop the country.

For some reason, however, envy electrified the conversation at the dinner table around midnight, when the man sitting next to me burst out: “Imagine, my friend! Historically, Iraq was home to the oldest civilizations in the world. It now rests on a sea of proven oil reserves. Its annual budget exceeds $120 billion. It spent tens of billions to restore power supplies. Still, electricity is wanting: كهربا ماكو.

“We brag about Iraq recouping its regional clout, about having balanced relations with the United States and equitable ties with Turkey and Iran, and about our new, strong and promising country. But electricity is wanting: كهربا ماكو.”

He said sharks were gulping down Iraq’s wealth and that corruption is boundless – “worse than in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.”

Baghdad, Basra, Nasiriyah, Najaf and all other cities, he said, swim in a sea of darkness and are sinking under the weight of snatched electricity cables and power generators.

He said power cuts and shortages were part of a tragic overheating of coexistence power lines connecting Iraqis.

He feared a growing preparation for a divorce between Sunnites and Shiites, especially if the emotional separation gripping Syria’s components -- due to the wholesale mass massacre going on in Syria -- culminated in divorce.

The power lines of coexistence in the Middle East region are cut.

True, a popular revolution is sweeping Syria. But also true, scenes of the former Yugoslavia are being replayed there, foreshadowing a long agony.

In Egypt, one rumor about a kidnapping or a mixed marriage is enough to see Muslims and Copts confirm a break in the power lines of coexistence. The lines are also out of service in Bahrain.

In Lebanon, a heated debate over a new electoral law risks splintering its constituent communities.

The cut in the power lines of coexistence make all our cities with (ethnically and religiously) mixed populations resemble Kirkuk.

Depression, darkness and fear permeate our cities.

The power lines of citizenry, of the state electricity authorities and of public institutions are down.

We stand at the threshold of a prolonged blackout, In fact, كهربا ماكو 

Syria and Mideast "facing long haul to stability"

The Middle East, with Syria at its core, faces a long haul to stability.

The disheartening opinion is today shared in separate think pieces penned by Talal Salman, founding publisher and editor-in-chief of the Lebanese daily as-Safir, and George Semaan, former editor-in-chief of the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat.

Long haul

According to Semaan, writing for al-Hayat under the title “Syria stirs regional wars and the finale is way-off,” all Syria players know the regime’s fall is a matter of time.

What they fear is Syria collapsing totally and becoming ungovernable or inhospitable to any new regime.

The utter and systematic destruction of most of the country’s cities and townships goes on unabated. The opposition did not leave Homs, Hama, Idlib or Deraa, but little of them is left. That’s what will also happen to the two capitals, Aleppo and Damascus.

The Annan mission that was meant to give international and regional players extra time has breathed its last, prompting the regime to disseminate seeds of conflict on several regional fronts.

Among such seeds are (1) the regime’s talk of chemical and biological weapons to perturb the whole world, chiefly Israel (2) its empowerment of Syrian Kurdish groups on Turkey’s doorstep (3) its apathy to the pouring of Syrian refugees into neighboring countries, including Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, and (4) its apparent indifference to sectarian fighting that could well draw in Arab countries and non-Arab Iran.

In Iraq, America’s decapitation of the Saddam regime changed the country from a Sunnite-led dictatorship to a Shiite-led democracy. In Syria, forcible change from an Alawite-led dictatorship to a Sunnite-led democracy would fire up Iran.

How else would you translate the recent flood of threats by Iran, basically saying that regime change in Syria is just a dream?

“The forceful emergence of the Iranian factor in the Syria crisis coupled with shockwaves of sectarian and ethnic struggle in the region won’t perturb the Russians. They would strengthen her hand in standing up to the West and many Arabs.

“Syria’s breakup and its becoming a failed state after the regime’s exit won’t perturb the United States and Israel either.

“We are thus into a new and lengthy chapter bound to prolong the sufferings of Syrians and their neighbors as well,” Semaan concludes.

Lebanon template

In his leader for al-Safir, Talal Salman sees Lebanon becoming the prototype for Arab world statelets gripped by civil war.

Lebanon, he explains, is renowned as a country where society is infinitely stronger than the state.

The experience of the 20 years of armed internecine strife – which subsided but remained simmering – showed that, despite occasional cosmetic change, Lebanon’s sectarian regime is a “constant” whereas statehood is the “variable.” Statehood might dissipate for a few years before being resurrected as per new sectarian power balances and outer sponsors. Once brought back to life, the “state” resumes the role of relations manager and traffic policeman.

In truth, conditions in Lebanon – which appear farcical but are tragic in origin – reflect the turbulence sweeping the Arab World’s Mashreq and Maghreb.

Syria is sinking in the blood of its urban and rural areas, army, security forces and insurgents backed by disparate regimes and policies united by a “sole enemy” – namely a Syrian regime that lost its credibility amongst its people before losing its undeserving “friends.”

In Egypt, ongoing attempts to monopolize power are almost burying the Tahrir Square Revolution. The party that won the presidency for its candidate cannot claim to be the “ruling party.” Nor can its allies accept seeing the “compromise candidate” act as a partisan.

But, though open-ended, the power struggle in Egypt remains peaceful and unlike in Syria, where the ruling party evaporated by orders from above for failing to cover up one-man rule. And while the situation in Egypt is temporary, Syria’s is pending.

In Iraq, the legend of a “leader party” ruling the country and its people in the sole leader’s name is no more. But the situation is Iraq is still knocking at the door of civil war.

Lebanon being the only country that can survive as a collection of sectarian statelets, the danger today is of Lebanon becoming the template for restructuring the “states” around it, whether far or near.

Talking virtual reality after Assad’s exit

Syria activists documented 20,356 violent deaths in the uprising by July 18

This is my paraphrasing of a figurative think piece by Saudi mass media celebrity Jamal Khashoggi. It appears in Arabic today in the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat

Jamal Khashoggi

Imagine this:

Before long, Middle East leaders awaken one morning and find the Middle East without Bashar al-Assad and Syria welcoming them with open arms.

The new reality, with all its opportunities, risks and challenges, dawns on them.The regime imploded without their direct intervention. Their security advisers had told them to stay out of the fray for fear of repercussions at home. They were told the Syrians could fend for themselves. So they funded and pseudo-armed the opposition groups and granted them freedom of movement.

But regional leaders are worried about the state of post-Assad Syria. The breakup of the regular armed forces saw members defect to the Free Syrian Army (FSA) or lay down arms and rejoin their tribes for protection. Only the armed forces’ Alawites organized an orderly retreat with their armaments to their villages and mountain strongholds – a great cause of concern for new-Syria’s prospects.

The Syrian army did not stage the semblance of a coup like in Tunisia or keep the country whole and put up with the revolution as in Egypt.

The opposition in turn failed to unify the FSA, which remains without a command and control (management) so it can inherit the ministry of defense and other security agencies. Their staffs are also considered enemies of the revolution.

Restructuring the Syrian army and its various branches is the most daunting task facing new-Syria’s leaders who remain divided between those in the Syrian National Council (SNA) claiming legitimacy and calling for a meeting of national forces to be held within days in Syria’s parliament and heads of other opposition groups objecting.

The head of state of one of the regional countries destined to groom Syrian affairs is perturbed.

He wonders, “How can we unite them? Is it a task the Arab League can handle?”

The fight with the Alawites is not over. Some of them are still resisting.

There is the risk of Syria’s Sunnites seeking revenge against Alawites for the series of atrocities and mass massacres committed against them.

The anxious head of state wakes up early the next morning to hear the newsreader saying Syria had a troubled night. Joy over the regime’s fall was mixed with concern about the future.

The head of state ponders; “What can we do? Send in our army? Sending in our troops is not politically correct. The SNA and local leaders promised to protect the Alawite minority. Hopefully, they will keep their word and the Syrians will restrain their anger.”

This restless head of state’s concern is not for love of the Alawites but for fear of some of their lot emigrating and sheltering in his homeland. He is also worried about unending unrest in Syria.

Syria is not Egypt. Change there won’t be internal only -- it will spill over.

There are several hundred thousand Syrians residing in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries.

Some of them will return to their country of origin for the first time. Most of them are supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood movement. They had left Syria during the movement’s clash with the regime in the Seventies and Eighties. Their homecoming would boost the Muslim Brotherhood’s chances in future national elections.

Jordan and the Gulf partners won’t be troubled by the departure of Syrian expatriates since their economic are all afflicted by high rates of unemployment.

Rich Syrians won’t join the exodus home. They would probably stay in the host countries and serve as bridges to the new-Syria.

Would Syria’s return to the Arab fold and the opening of its doors to its neighbors breathe new life into the “Greater Syria” concept?

Most probably it won’t.

States and borders won’t change. There would be no place today for al-Sham al-Kabir or a Greater Lebanon. That’s all part of history now.

What we would see is Syria returning to its natural geographic and political environment and to a market economy where Syrians shine.

We would also see Syria reopening its borders with its neighbors.

Aleppo and northern Syria could become an extension of the Turkish economy.

Mutual Jordanian, Syrian and Lebanese interests would conjoin with Saudi Arabia’s.

Post-Assad, borders between Jordan and Syria will melt away completely, if only for humanitarian reasons. But Jordan would have to tread carefully. There are loads of arms around in Syria, including chemical weapons.

Saudi Arabia would need to keep a watchful eye on Lebanon.

Lebanese Sunnites would be celebrating Assad’s exit passionately. That would upset a component of the Maronite community and rekindle apprehensions of the Greater Syria idea. But the negative reaction would be chiefly vocal.

The fear, however, is of Hezbollah’s response. Hezbollah is agitated already. As a wounded tiger, it would want to prove to the Sunnite “victors” that the party is still strong despite losing Syria.

So better let Hezbollah swallow the bitter pill gradually. At the end of the day, the party would acknowledge the magnitude of its loss and change course accordingly.

Nevertheless, this would require Saudi Arabia to keep Sunnites on a leash, preventing them from provoking Hezbollah, and to remind the party calmly that the kingdom is the next powerbroker in Lebanon.

Trounced in Syria, Iran would want to ward off a Sunnite and contagious Arab Spring by consolidating its hold on Iraq.

Tehran’s tactless support of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and his government is liable to offend Iraq’s Sunnites who would eagerly team up with their Syrian counterparts.

Iraq’s Sunnites would be rejoicing at first and then planning to regain their clout.

Here again, a power struggle is looming – one that could perhaps enable Saudi Arabia to shut out Iran from Iraq. But will the United States help the kingdom do that?

Iraq’s Kurds would join such endeavor. They would also have found a new (Kurdish) expanse for them in Syria.

Syria’s Kurds won greater rights and full citizenship rights in the campaign to push out Assad. They look forward to the kind of prosperity enjoyed by their kinfolk in Iraq. Economic benefits could draw Iraq’s Kurds closer to a new Sunnite regional order based on public freedoms and a market economy.  Such benefits could entice them to break with fundamentalist Shiite parties and help build a new, democratic Iraq.

It is still too early to envisage the Muslim Brothers winning national elections, forming a government and hammering out a new constitution in the new-Syria as in Egypt. But they will have a bee in their bonnet, which could embolden their Jordanian opposite numbers and thus pose a challenge for Amman.