Turkey-bound Barzani slams Syria turncoats

File photo of Erdogan and Barzani, who meet again tomorrow in Diyarbakir

Masoud Barzani, uncontested leader of more than 25 million Kurds living in parts of Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq, has given a sharp kick in the teeth to Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian Kurds’ Democratic Union Party (PYD).

The PYD, which is affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), this week declared a transitional administration in northeastern parts of Syria bordering Turkey.

Barzani, president of the Iraqi Kurdistan region, accused the PYD in Syria of “autocracy,” rejecting its unilateral declaration of independence in Syria’s Kurdish northeast.

He said the PYD was missing “a golden opportunity” by trying to hurriedly seize unilateral control of the Syrian Kurdish areas, or Rojava.

“This is autocracy and marginalization of the other Kurdish parties in Rojava.”  Barzani said in a statement. “We only support steps that have the consensus of all Kurdish parties in Rojava,” he added. “We refuse unilateral actions.”


“The PYD claims to have made a revolution in Rojava. But may I ask whom is this revolution targeted at? The only thing [the PYD] does is administer areas handed over to it by the [Assad] regime,” Barzani said in his written statement.

Barzani warned that the PYD was driving Syrian Kurds down a dead-end.

“There is serious concern this golden opportunity will be missed because the (Damascus) regime has not recognized Kurdish rights. At the same time, the Syrian opposition considers the PYD as an offshoot of the regime,” said Barzani. “This poses a serious danger for the future of our people.”


Barzani, who brokered a July 2012 deal in Erbil to forge a united stance among all Kurdish parties, called on the PYD and all other Kurdish groups to return to the terms of that accord.

“Despite our reservations about the PYD’s behavior and actions, we are happy to return to consensus, because autocracy will neither benefit the PYD nor the Kurdish people,” Barzani said.

“The PYD benefited from the agreement, but it did not commit to it. It suppressed other political parties at gunpoint and secretly sided with Assad’s regime to make itself a solo de facto military force on the ground,” Barzani said without mincing his words.


“I advise all Kurdish parties in Rojava to promote the interests of the Kurdish people and return to the principles of the Erbil agreement, because this is the best option to strengthen the Kurdish position in Syria,” Barzani said. “We will assist you to the best of our ability.”


The Kurdish president also accused the PYD of fighting a war that does not serve Kurdish interests, saying the PYD’s clashes with Qaeda-affiliated jihadists since last summer have forced tens of thousands of Kurds to flee Rojava.
  

The PYD’s armed wing, the People’s Protection Units (YPG), also clashed in late March with other Kurdish forces in northeast Syria and in the city of Amuda, where local residents protested against the arrest of three Kurdish activists by the PYD.

“It was decided Kurds would not get involved in the internal Syrian war, but the PYD got our people in a war that is not in their interest,” Barzani said.

Barzani’s Iraqi Kurdistan regional administration denied PYD leader Saleh Muslim entrance to its territory last week, which was interpreted as a sign of the disagreements between the PYD and the KRG. The Syrian Kurdish leader says he had to wait five days before ultimately being told he would not be allowed into Iraqi Kurdistan.

Barzani also denounced the PYD for banning the Kurdistan flag in Rojava.

Diyarbakir summit

The Iraqi Kurdish leader is set for an important visit to Diyarbakir tomorrow, Saturday, where he will meet with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Selin Caglayan, writing today for Rudaw, Kurdistan’s English-language newspaper, notes the meeting comes when Erbil’s differences with the PYD are escalating and Ankara’s peacemaking with the PKK is on the rocks.

The weekend summit will focus on bilateral ties, Ankara’s recently improving relations with Baghdad, developments in Syria and the government’s peace process with the PKK, the premier’s aide and foreign ministry sources in Ankara told Rudaw.


Barzani’s visit “is a message both for the PYD and PKK,” said Mehmet Ozcan, an academic and director of the Ankara Strategy Institute. “’You are not the only Kurds in the region’ is the message,” he told Rudaw.


”In Syria the PYD is bullying the other Kurdish parties and trying to be the sole representative of the Syrian Kurds, as  the PKK once did in Turkey,” Ozcan said. “On the other hand, the PKK is creating problems by blocking the peace process and putting pressure on the public before the local elections” in March, he added.


Kurdish author and commentator Irfan Aktan agreed that developments in Syria, where the PYD runs its government from the city of Qamishli with strong support from the PKK in Diyarbakir, were driving Ankara and Erbil ever closer.  “This alliance would weaken the Diyarbakir-Qamishli axis, and this makes many Kurds uneasy,” he said.


According to the Yeni Safak daily, which is close to Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), Barzani will meet with key Kurdish figures in Diyarbakir to deliver this message: “The armed struggle is over; now it is time for political struggle for all the Kurds.”


It expects Barzani to propose mediating between Ankara and PKK headquarters in the Kurdistan Region’s Qandil Mountain to restart a stalled peace process.

While Ankara’s ties with Baghdad are on the mend, its relations with Erbil have been hitting new highs. Turkey is Erbil’s largest trade partner, and the two are involved in multi-billion dollar pipeline deals to get the Kurdistan Region’s rich energy reserves to markets in Turkey and beyond.


Barzani reportedly visited Diyarbakir in 1996 and stayed one night. But this will be his first visit as president.

He arrives in Turkey with beloved Kurdish singer Shirwan Perwer, who has been in exile for 37 years.  Erdogan announced that Perwer would sing a duet in Diyarbakir with legendary Kurdish singer Ibrahim Tatlises.

Syrian Kurds declare transitional administration

The PYD's Saleh Muslim and a map showing "Rojava" along Syria's border with Turkay

Syrian Kurds yesterday declared an interim administration in northeastern parts of the country (Rojava), further solidifying their geographic and political presence after driving out radical Islamist rebels. 

Long oppressed under Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his father before him, Kurds view the Syria war as an opportunity to gain more autonomy -- like their ethnic kin in neighboring Iraq. 

Control over Syria's northeast, where Kurds predominate, had in recent months swung back and forth between them and mainly Arab Islamist rebels, who strongly oppose what they suspect are Kurdish plans to secede.

But a Kurdish militia prevailed earlier this month, and at a meeting held in the Syrian city of Qamishli yesterday, a committee of Kurdish and other groups said it was now time to set up an administrative body to run the region. 

"In light of the current circumstances which Syria is going through, and in order to fill an administrative vacuum... we see it as an utmost necessity to reach a transitional, pluralistic, democratic administration," said a statement sent to Reuters.

The statement said they were committed to the unity of Syria and asked world powers and neighboring countries to back the new administration, which they said had won the support of different political groups and minorities in the area.

The dominant force on the ground in Syria's Kurdish areas is the Democratic Union Party (PYD), which has a well-trained militia and is affiliated with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

The PYD's growing clout has also dismayed some fellow Kurds, who accuse it of being in league with Assad and seeking to replace his authoritarian one-party rule with its own.

PYD representative Mohammed Reso said some Syrian Kurdish parties had refused to sign up to the plan.

Davutoglu

In his first remarks after the declaration of the interim administration, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu accused the PYD of "not keeping its promise."

"We told them to avoid a de facto administration declaration that could divide Syria. We told them to put a distance between themselves and the [al-Assad] regime," Davutoglu said during a live interview on private broadcaster NTV on Tuesday. 

He criticized the Kurdish group for adopting an "ambivalent" posture. "The most serious mistake that the PYD is making is to put under pressure on the other Kurdish opposition groups in [their] controlled areas. We receive a lot of complaints from Kurds [in northern Syria], and we hope they will change this attitude," Davutoglu added.

PYD leader Saleh Muslim had visited Turkey twice in a brief period in July and August as the open conflict between Kurdish militia groups and jihadist rebels mounted, causing a refugee outflow from Rojava. He reportedly discussed with Turkish officials PYD's plans of forming an autonomous administration that triggered concerns in Ankara.

Barzani

The Turkish government and Iraq's autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) have adopted a similar attitude on the situation in northern Syria. Both oppose the PYD's creation of a politically autonomous entity in the region.

KRG leader Massoud Barzani is troubled by the disputes among Kurds, particularly between the PYD and other Kurdish parties, over the areas in Syria's north.

The Turkish government and Barzani also backed the Syrian Kurdish National Council (KNC), a group that agreed to join the main Syrian opposition body, the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces.

“The KNC is close to Barzani. Barzani wanted to impose his policies in Rojava and Turkey wanted to use Barzani to establish an alternative group to the PYD, which was the KNC. They tried hard, but failed. The KNC is not stronger than the PYD,” Iso said.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to meet Barzani in Diyarbakir at the weekend.

According to Turkish media sources, Erdogan will visit Diyarbakir, a predominantly Kurdish city in southeastern Turkey on Saturday, when he will be meeting the Iraqi Kurdistan president.

A source from Turkish Channel Show TV said renowned Kurdish singer Shivan Perwer will be back to Diyarbakir from self-exile in Germany to meet Barzani and Erdogan.

Relations between Iraq’s Kurdistan Region and Turkey have been improving steadily of late.

The volume of trade between Iraq and Turkey is about $12 billion, with three quarters of it being between Ankara and the Kurdistan Region.

Iran

Writing for the Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat today, former editor-in-chief Tariq Alhomayed quotes a Reuters dispatch yesterday as saying the Kurds’ military gains in Syria is posing a dilemma for regional powers.

Syrian Kurds view Syria’s civil war as an opportunity to gain the kind of autonomy enjoyed by their ethnic kin in neighboring Iraq.

The seriousness of the report, says Alhomayed, is that their offensive has stirred mixed feelings, globally, regionally and locally, even among some fellow Kurds, who say the Kurdish fighters have drifted into an Iran-led regional axis supportive of Assad, something they deny.

To Assad and his Shiite allies, their gains mean more territory out of Sunni rebel hands two and a half years into a revolt against his rule.

Islamist rebels -- particularly the Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) that have been imposing their will across rebel-held territory -- argue that their defeat says more about who was helping their foes than the strength of the Kurdish forces themselves. They said help from Assad's forces and Shiite-led Iraq was the reason for Kurdish gains.

The Iraqi government strongly denies supporting any faction in Syria, including Kurds.

A closer reading of this and other reports shows the Kurds’ military gains in Syria are posing a bigger dilemma for Syrian Kurds than for regional powers.

A senior Iraqi politician told Reuters Shiite powerhouse Iran, Assad's main regional ally, was also actively backing the PYD and emboldening the PKK, with which it is closely aligned.

"Iran supports these groups to guarantee having a powerful group in Syria in case things go out of control," he said, adding that Tehran was creating a network of allies from minority groups across the country to bolster their interests and to create alternative partners should Assad fall.

The Iraqi politician said Baghdad's Shiite government was supporting the Kurds to weaken cross-border ties among Sunnis.

"(They) may help them in cooperation with Iran to create an autonomous Kurdish region ... to establish a buffer zone between Iraqi and Syrian Sunnis."

This of course means the Kurds will have hostile and unbalanced relations with a predominantly Sunni region.

Also, can Syria’s Kurds genuinely withstand Turkey’s ire and eventually that of Tehran, which is home to eight million Iranian Kurds?

Syrian Kurds are set to realize that you don’t build nation-states by simply having minorities go their separate ways.

Iran-Iraq pushing for Syria's balkanization

Barzani and Maliki (top) and a Balkanized Syria map

The specter of Syria’s balkanization has yet to pass from sight.

Tehran has now given the thumbs up for a “provisional civil administration” in Syria’s Kurdish areas and agreed to help clear out Qaeda-linked extremists there.

Fresh from talks in Tehran, Salih Muslim, head of the Syrian Kurds’ Democratic Union Party (PYD), an affiliate of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), says Iran gave the go-ahead for a “transitional civil administration” planned by the “Western Kurdistan Council.”

Western Kurdistan refers to the Kurdish areas in northern and northeastern Syria bordering Turkey.

Muslim also tells pan-Arab al-Hayat today agreement was reached with the Iranian side “to fight our common enemy,” chiefly Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

Muslim said he met with high-ranking foreign ministry and Revolutionary Guards officials during his August 7-8 stay in Tehran at the invitation of the foreign ministry.

“Iran is an important country. It is the only one in the region to have the ear of the [Syrian] regime,” he said.

Barzani

On August 10, Masoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in northern Iraq, posted a statement on the KRG’s official website saying:

For a while now, the print media and a number of political and media centers have been saying terrorists in Western Kurdistan have mobilized against Kurdish citizens and that Qaeda-linked terrorists are attacking innocent civilians and massacring Kurdish women and children.

To verify such news, I am calling for a special inquiry commission to travel to Western Kurdistan and investigate. If it finds that innocent Kurdish citizens, women and children are under threat of death and terrorism, the Iraqi Kurdistan Region will make use of all its capabilities to defend innocent Kurdish women, children and citizens in Western Kurdistan.

Barzani's statement referred to Kurdish areas in Syria as “Western Kurdistan.”

Spread over large, adjoining tracts of Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran, the Kurdish people are often described as the largest ethnic group without their own state.

The northern Iraqi region of Kurdistan, which has its own government and armed forces, is pursuing increasingly independent energy and foreign policies, infuriating Baghdad.

Iraqi Kurds have sent fuel, food and medical aid to their ethnic kin over the border in Syria, extending Barzani’s influence, but Saturday’s statement appeared to be the first time that he had suggested intervention.

In Syria, where they make up nearly 10 percent of the population, Kurds have been widely discriminated against under Bashar al-Assad and his late father before him, who stripped more than 100,000 of their citizenship.

For Syrian Kurds, the insurrection against Assad presents an opportunity to win the kind of rights enjoyed by their neighbors in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Maliki

Quoting from Kuwait’s al-Seyassah newspaper, Baghdad’s Shafaq News reported August 9,  “Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki notified KRG President Masoud Barzani that the Assad regime is not against Peshmerga forces entering northern Syria to defend Syrian Kurds against attacks by al-Qaeda.

“A highly-placed Kurdish source in Baghdad said Iranian leaders, together with the Iraqi premier, are putting pressure on Barzani to stop supporting the Syrian revolution and back Assad’s regime… especially that al-Qaeda poses a threat to both Irbil and Baghdad.”

All this highlights the potential for Peshmerga, Syrian Kurd, Iranian and Iraqi forces banding together to help Assad win his presumed war on Takfiris, Jihadists and al-Qaeda -- at least in Western Kurdistan.

Israel

Separately, Lazar Berman wonders in his think piece for The Times of Israel this week: “Is a free Kurdistan, and a new Israeli ally, upon us?”

In his opinion, Syria’s Kurds are bent on carving out an autonomous enclave in northeastern Syria.

The PYD “has been taking advantage of the power vacuum caused by the two-year-old conflict to push out rival opposition fighters and move closer to autonomy…

“According to Kurdistan expert Ofra Bengio of Tel Aviv University, independence is not on the Syrian Kurds’ agenda any time in the near future. ‘The PYD is not talking about independence now and will be reluctant to use such terminology in order not to antagonize any of the governments or the international community. Autonomy is the safer goal now,’ she said.”

Berman says “Israel has long developed alliances with non-Arab countries on the periphery of the Middle East. Today, that policy rests on partnerships with Cyprus, Greece, Bulgaria, and Caucasian and central Asian countries. Kurdistan fits perfectly into that framework…

“With few friends in the region, the Kurds will likely look to Israel to help them gain security and closer relations with the United States. As Arab governments in the Middle East totter and fall, and Islamists look to exploit the chaos, the alliance is one that both countries may find beneficial to pursue.”

Kissinger

This reminds me of the presentation former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger made at the Ford School in New York City last June, when he said a Balkanized Syria is the best outcome to emerge of its current Assad-controlled unity.

“There are three possible outcomes. An Assad victory, a Sunni victory, or an outcome in which the various nationalities agree to co-exist together but in more or less autonomous regions, so that they can’t oppress each other. That’s the outcome I would prefer to see. But that’s not the popular view,” he said.

Are Assad’s allies heeding Kissinger’s counsel and pushing Barzani and Syria’s Kurds to go down that route?

Turkey takes the side of Syria's Kurds

Yesterday's Erdogan-Barzani meeting and the title of Michael Weiss' piece

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has now played his “Kurdish card” -- not to win Syria back, but mire Turkey and hopefully walk away with an Alawite state.

This explains why he mobilized his Qaeda-linked surrogates to take control of Kurdish areas in the north of Syria on the border with Turkey.

In the face of the Syrian uprising, Assad forces originally pulled out of those areas in July and August 2012, hoping the vacuum would be filled by Turkey’s nemesis at the time, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

The March 2013 peace deal between Turkey and the PKK spoiled Assad’s plan.

His fallback in recent weeks on his Qaeda-linked proxies – Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) – is to keep the plan alive.

In context, I can’t think of a better eye-opener than yesterday’s commentary by Michael Weiss fittingly titled “Assad’s no enemy of al-Qaeda.” You can read it here.

Overnight, news broke of jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda -- read Assad -- having taken hostage around 200 Kurdish civilians after violent clashes with Kurdish fighters in two villages of northeastern Syria.

“Fighters of Jabhat al-Nusra and the ISIL have seized control of Tall Aren village in Aleppo province and are laying siege to another village nearby, Tall Hassel,” said the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

Clashes between jihadists and Kurdish fighters have raged for some two weeks, after jihadists were expelled from the key town of Ras al-Ayn on the Turkish border.

The fighting claimed a prominent casualty on Tuesday, as a car bomb planted by Jihadists killed Kurdish leader Isa Huso, a leading member of the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD), a pro-PKK organization of Syrian Kurds and the most powerful faction of the ethnic group in the region (see yesterday’s post).

Politically, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met yesterday with Nachervan Barzani, prime minister of Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government and nephew of KRG President Massoud Barzani.

The two-hour meeting at the Prime Ministry in Ankara was closed to the press.

The talks are believed to have focused on bilateral relations, the PYD’s agenda in Syria and the upcoming three-day Kurdish National Conference.

The latter opens in Erbil on August 19 with 500 Kurdish delegates attending, mostly from Iraq, Turkey, Syria and Iran.

Before Barzani's visit, PYD co-chair Salih Muslim, a graduate of Istanbul Technical University in the late 1970s, was able -- on Turkey’s invitation -- to fly from Erbil to Istanbul after 35 years.

Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu told reporters after meeting with Muslim he acknowledged Syrian Kurds’ need to establish a “civilian administration” in their areas, just as other opposition groups have. He warned such provisional measures were possible provided the administration does not gain “permanent status.”

The understanding is that such a provisional local administration would include other ethnic groups such as Christians, Turkmen and non-Kurds who live in the Kurdish-majority areas of northeastern Syria.

Turkish columnist Sedat Ergin, writing for Hurriyet daily, says Turkey’s dilemma of late was to choose one of two options that would serves it interests best: Control of Syria’s Kurdish areas by the PYD or by the Qaeda-linked groups?

“We understand from Muslim’s interview with Ali Çelebi for Özgür Gündem daily,” writes Ergin, “that the Justice and Development (AKP) government has gone for the first option.

“…This being the case, instead of approaching the Syrian Kurds with animosity, building a permanent friendship with them starting today appears to be a wiser, more realistic policy. The path to this passes along a road that approaches them with respect, knows them and talks to them as counterparts.

“From this aspect, Muslim’s visit has been a positive step in the sense that a dialogue has been launched between Turkey and Syrian Kurds; also, it complements the peace process launched with the aim of solving the Kurdish issue domestically.”

Separately, Turkey has also stepped up economic relations with the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq.

The KRG is now pushing ahead with plans to build an oil pipeline between Turkey and northern Iraq despite objections from Baghdad and the United States.

The Syrian Kurdish leader’s whodunit killer

Clockwise from top: The late Isa Huso, his car and flower draped casket

Yesterday’s assassination of Isa Huso, a prominent Syrian Kurdish politician, in Syria’s northeastern town of Qamishli falls into a category police call whodunits-murders.

They are called such because they are notoriously tough to solve, there is more than one potential suspect, with each having a distinct motive.

In Isa Huso’s case, the two prime suspects are:

(1) The Syrian regime, which imprisoned him under President Bashar al-Assad after the 2004-2005 Qamishli uprising by Syrian Kurds and during the rule of Assad's late father Hafez for campaigning for human rights

(2) Al-Qaeda-linked militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) and Jabhat al-Nusra, who are trying to rest control of Syria’s oil-rich Kurdish areas near the border with Turkey.

In a way, the two potential suspects are connected.

The al-Qaeda-linked organizations were a creation of the Damascus government, designed to discredit those who oppose Assad and to hide the regime's own brutal tactics.

This reminds me of the notorious “قناص” -- Arabic for “sniper” -- in the years of Lebanon’s civil war.

Between 1975 and 1990, the Syrian army often planted a sniper on a Beirut rooftop to shoot at one side in the conflict, then the other, to keep them fighting.

Isa Huso, 60, was a member of the Higher Kurdish Council, aimed at bringing together Syrian Kurdish groups, and an opponent of Assad.

Syria's main Kurdish militia later issued a call to arms to all Kurds to fight jihadists operating in the north.

It follows weeks of intense fighting between jihadist groups and Kurds, who make up a little over 10% of the population and are largely concentrated in northeastern Syria, towards the Turkish border.

Huso was leaving his home in the border town of Qamishli when a bomb planted inside his car detonated.

He was a member of the foreign relations committee in the Higher Kurdish Council, an umbrella group for regional Kurdish factions.

"Huso sought to promote Kurdish rights within a united Syria free from the grip of the Assad regime," his former neighbor, Massoud Akko, told Reuters news agency.

“No-one knows who killed him but the fingers point to the militant Islamists. They are the only ones who are targeting Kurds as Kurds,” he added.

Responding to Huso's killing, Kurdish fighters known as the Popular Protection Units (YPG) issued a call to arms.

“(The YPG) called on all those fit to carry weapons to join their ranks, to protect areas under their control from attacks by Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) fighters, al-Nusra Front and other battalions,” said a London-based Syria watchdog, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The YPG, which claims to have no political affiliations, was set up to counter offensives in majority Kurdish areas.

In recent months it has been battling to drive out rebels from the north, including the al-Qaeda affiliated al-Nusra.

Areas near the Turkish border have seen some of the most intense fighting, with clashes reported between the strongest local Kurdish group, the Democratic Union Party (PYD), and al-Nusra in the town of Ras al-Ain.

The PYD has said it aims to set up a local council to run Kurdish regions until Syria's war ends.

PYD leader Salih Muslim reassured Turkey last week that his group’s call for a local administration in Syria’s Kurdish regions does not mean it is looking to divide Syria.


Muslim, who flew to Ankara from Erbil, told the media he was in Turkey to allay Ankara’s concerns over Kurdish separatism, and to explain why Syria’s Kurdish regions needed a local administration.


"Kurds will need to have a status in the new order in Syria,” Muslim told Anatolian news agency. “But what's in question now is a provisional arrangement until we arrive at that phase. ”


Muslim told Turkish officials a local administration would include other ethnic groups such as Christians, Turkmen and non-Kurds who live in the Kurdish-majority areas of northeastern Syria.


Muslim’s visit appears to have eased suspicions between Syrian Kurds and Turkey.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters yesterday he acknowledged Syrian Kurds’ need to establish a “civilian administration” in their areas, just as other opposition groups have. He warned such provisional measures were possible provided the administration does not gain “permanent status.”

Turkish bombings linked to Banias suspect

Mihraç Ural in Syria

The man I called five days ago “the ethnic cleanser of Banias” is emerging as the suspected mastermind of Saturday’s twin bombings in the Turkish town of Reyhanli, a main hub for Syrian refugees and opposition activity in Turkey's Hatay province, just across the border with Syria.

“A fugitive Turkish Alevi with Syrian citizenship and a checkered past has emerged as the chief instigator and overseer of last week’s massacres in Bayda and Banias. A native of Hatay Province in southern Turkey, his real name is Mihraç Ural,” I wrote in my May 8 post, “Syria: Enter the ethnic cleanser of Banias.”

Turkish authorities are holding nine Turkish citizens believed to have links to Syrian intelligence in connection with the two car bombs in Reyhanli that left 46 people dead and 100 injured.

Today, Turkish political analyst Murat Yetkin essentially writes about Ural’s role in his column for Hurriyet English-language daily:

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said during a live TV show yesterday, “Those who committed the Banias massacre are also responsible for these (Reyhanli) attacks.”

He was talking about a Syrian army operation supported by “المقاومة السورية” -- the “Syrian Resistance” -- against the Sunni population of the historical coastal town of Banias, killing hundreds of civilians, including children.

Davutoglu had denounced the operation as an “ethnic cleansing” campaign against Sunnis by Assad, as a contingency plan to set up a rump Alawite state…

The point is there was somebody, technically still a Turkish citizen, Mihraç Ural, who was shown as the responsible party… There are videos of him available on YouTube as he speaks in Arabic and tries to incite militiamen around him to cleanse Banias of Sunnis as soon as possible.

The name is not alien to Turkish security circles.

Ural was among the founders of an armed leftist group dubbed “Acilciler” – the “hasty ones” – in the late 1970s and is responsible of a number of political murders, bank robberies and similar acts of terror.

The group had been denounced by other leftists as a tool of Syrian intelligence, and even mocked as the “Hatay liberation army” since some of its members were from Hatay and of Nusayri (Alawite) origin…

Ural’s name and organization were mentioned by Turkish security and media right after a similar car bomb attack at Cilvegözü border gate with Syria on Feb. 11, killing 13 people...

In Syria, where he commands “المقاومة السورية” (the “Syrian Resistance”) militia, a shabiha subdivision, Mihraç Ural goes by his Arabic nom de guerre: Ali at-Kayyali.

Ural left Turkey for Syria after the 12 September 1980 Turkish coup d'état, headed by Gen. Kenan Evren.

He is said to have introduced PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan to Hafez Assad, Bashar’s father, in Damascus.

In his leader comment this morning, Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, also alludes to the Reyhanli-Banias connection.

Writing in Arabic about what he describes as “post-honeymoon bitterness,” Charbel says:

It is not child’s play for Ankara officials to say perpetrators of the deadly bombings in Reyhanli are Turkish citizens associated with Syrian intelligence.

It is not child’s play either to say some of the suspects were involved in the latest Banias massacre.

True, the fallout between the two countries is not new. Equally true, the wrangle has now acquired grave dimensions.

When a government accuses a neighboring state of being behind bombings on its territory, it commits itself to a response.

The response could have been a classical recourse to the UN Security Council, but Ankara is aware that Council’s door is firmly locked and strictly guarded by Russia.

Ankara is thus expected to seek a response surpassing a salvo of cross-border shells or a reminder underscoring its NATO credentials.

Recent months were replete with signs of the mushrooming estrangement between Ankara and Damascus.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not tired of asking Assad to step down. He has used tough words to describe his former friend. Ankara did not suffice with hosting hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. It went further and assumed the mantle of the safe haven and stronghold of Assad’s enemies, including the Free Syrian Army.

Assad did not grin and bear his former friend either. He hosted Turkish opposition leaders and held Erdogan fully responsible for the rot. He addressed the Turkish public via the Turkish media to increase the pressure on Erdogan, denying him the chance to do the same. Syria’s state-run media unearthed old wordbooks to warn of the Ottomans getting astride Muslim Brotherhood horses to ride back and revive the caliphate. Syrian state media also revitalized the Iskenderun (Alexandretta) file, which has been dormant for decades.

The Reyhanli bombings’ timing elicited much scrutiny and a series of scripts.

The outrage came a few days after the U.S.-Russian agreement to hold an international conference for a political solution in Syria based on the June 2012 Geneva Declaration.

It also came after fighters of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) started withdrawing from Turkey in keeping with the Erdogan-Ocalan agreement.

Incidentally, Erdogan’s deal with Abdullah Ocalan was a game-changer for Syria’s Kurds, turning them from a card up Damascus’ sleeve into an ace of trumps in Ankara’s hand.

The Reyhanli bombings also came in the week of Erdogan’s talks with President Barack Obama at the White House next Thursday.

Turkey-watchers believe the Reyhanli bombings will spur Erdogan to urge Obama to stop fudging and dithering and be more decisive on Syria. They believe Erdogan “considers Assad’s lingering in any part of Syria would seriously undermine Turkey’s stability and territorial integrity. And Ankara is prepared to bear the burden of safeguarding its stability and engaging further in the battle to remove Assad.”

The Turkish-Syrian honeymoon was drawn out.

Turkey hoped an “exemplary rapport” with Syria was its gateway to the Arab world and key to building bridges to the region.

Syria too was elated to reach out to a Sunni member of NATO. Damascus felt relations with Turkey compensated for its tiff with Saudi Arabia and Egypt and imagined Ankara becoming both its passageway and password.

The post-honeymoon bitterness followed.

Syria accuses Turkey of spewing out arms and rebels. Ankara accuses Damascus of trying to destabilize Turkey and undermine the unity of its social fabric. Ankara yearns for Syria without Assad while Assad dreams of Turkey without Erdogan. The Syrian information minister did not omit calling on Erdogan lately to step down.

But the game is more intricate.

Russia insists it is the door and latchkey to a solution. Iran does not lack the appetite to assume such a role despite its deep involvement.

Solving the Syria crisis is so difficult. The door is stuck shut and the small key is lost.

Erdogan will surely ask Obama to open the door and find the key, arguing that the once widespread treatment of wounds by cauterization is long overdue.