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Showing posts with label Vladimir Putin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vladimir Putin. Show all posts

Tuesday, 3 December 2013

Bandar back in Moscow for Geneva-2 bazaar

Prince Bandar and President Putin last July 31

Saudi Arabia’s spymaster Prince Bandar bin Sultan arrived in Moscow today for his second round of talks in four months with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
News of his arrival in the Russian capital was broken this afternoon by Khaled al-Matrafi, regional director of Saudi-owned TV news channel Alarabiya.
Prince Bandar’s visit to the Kremlin comes less than a month since Putin, a strong backer of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, called Saudi King Abdullah to discuss international efforts to end the Syria crisis.
Russia last month sharply criticized Saudi Arabia's decision to reject membership of the UN Security Council over the body's failure to resolve the Syria war, which has been fought for over two-and-a-half years.
The most significant recent contact between Moscow and Riyadh was a meeting between Putin and Prince Bandar last July 31.
I assume the new round of Putin-Bandar talks opens the bazaar between the pair over the upcoming Geneva-2 peace conference slated for January 22.

Sunday, 15 September 2013

McCain smells a rat in Syria deal

Senators John McCain (left) and Lindsey Graham Saturday
U.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ) and Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Saturday released the following statement on the U.S.-Russian agreement on Syria:

* * * * *
"What concerns us most is that our friends and enemies will take the same lessons from this agreement – they see it as an act of provocative weakness on America's part. We cannot imagine a worse signal to send to Iran as it continues its push for a nuclear weapon.

"Without a UN Security Council Resolution under Chapter 7 authority, which threatens the use of force for non-compliance by the Assad regime, this framework agreement is meaningless. Assad will use the months and months afforded to him to delay and deceive the world using every trick in Saddam Hussein's playbook. It requires a willful suspension of disbelief to see this agreement as anything other than the start of a diplomatic blind alley, and the Obama Administration is being led into it by Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin.

"What's worse, this agreement does nothing to resolve the real problem in Syria, which is the underlying conflict that has killed 110,000 people, driven millions from their homes, destabilized our friends and allies in the region, emboldened Iran and its terrorist proxies, and become a safe haven for thousands of al-Qaeda affiliated extremists. Is the message of this agreement that Assad is now our negotiating partner, and that he can go on slaughtering innocent civilians and destabilizing the Middle East using every tool of warfare, so long as he does not use chemical weapons? That is morally and strategically indefensible.

"The only way this underlying conflict can be brought to a decent end is by significantly increasing our support to moderate opposition forces in Syria. We must strengthen their ability to degrade Assad's military advantage, change the momentum on the battlefield, and thereby create real conditions for a negotiated end to the conflict."

Tuesday, 10 September 2013

Putin checkmates Obama over Syria


Vladimir Putin is a black belt and a Master of Sports in Judo.

Political analyst Amine Kamourieh, writing today for the independent Beirut daily an-Nahar, says the Russian president is also an excellent hunter and marksman. And he just proved to be an accomplished acrobat who can execute a full back somersault at the last minute to avoid falling into an abyss.

Kamourieh continues:

Putin can be a Machiavellian diplomat at a whim and is always prepared to hide his deadly iron fist in a velvet glove. His attributes, love of the spotlight and innumerable qualities while in office made him a media superstar on the world stage.

In the Syria crisis, Russia's new tsar showed a penchant for global leadership.

Yesterday, he proved to be a Chess Grandmaster. With one spectacular move, his "Rook" checkmated America's "Black King" that has been threatening Syria.

Hours earlier, a potential military strike from U.S. forces was hanging over Syria.

Talk was not so much about the strike's timing as about its sequels.

The Russian Grandmaster changed all this with an airtight proposal. 

If the strike on Syria is to deter Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from using his chemical arsenal, better put Syria's chemical weapons stockpiles under international control and spare Syria and the rest of the world the evils of war and its likely catastrophic aftermath.

The proposal puts U.S. plans for a strike against Syria on hold.

Putin's smart suggestion helps U.S. President Barack Obama and Assad climb down the high tree. By so doing, the Russian president avoided a head on clash between Moscow and Washington over Syria and let his Syrian ally off the hook while denying Damascus the opportunity of claiming "victory."

By yielding control of its chemical weapons, which it invariably described as a "strategic" asset in a face-off with nuclear Israel, the Syrian regime would be effectively turning tail on what it usually described as a "sovereign" issue. The Syrian regime would at the same time be implicitly owning up to (chemical weapons) violations.

Putin's plan also helps Obama save face after talking himself into a corner on intervention in Syria and finding it hard to muster the support of Congress, the American public and U.S. allies for action against Assad forces.

The plan for international control of Syrian chemical weapons steals Obama's thunder. If adopted and implemented, it would crown Putin's move as one of the greatest since the days of the Russian Grandmasters.

Wednesday, 10 October 2012

Swap on the cards: Iraq-Maliki for Syria-Assad

Maliki (top) and Assad in meetings with Khamenei

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is playing his regional trump card: Iraq to replace Syria and Iraq’s powerful Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to supersede Syria’s embattled Alawite President Bashar al-Assad.
Tehran’s theocratic government and Baghdad’s Shiite-dominated leadership have been moving closer all the time. And both share a similar interest in supporting Damascus.
Iraq abstained from a 2011 Arab League vote to suspend Syria’s membership. It is now quietly shipping crucial fuel oil supplies to Assad’s regime.
Iraq has also been laundering money for the Islamic Republic to help it overcome sanctions and ferry weapons and fighters to the Assad government.
Since it promised to ask Syria-bound airplanes passing through its airspace to land for random inspections after Washington said they could be ferrying arms to Damascus, Baghdad searched one cargo plane only.
At the same time, an agreement between senior Iraqi and Iranian officials allowed Tehran to make larger and more systematic transfers of weapons and fighters to Syria overland via Iraq.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be travelling to Baghdad shortly to confer with Maliki.
Maliki, who is in Moscow on a working visit to consolidate political, economic and defense ties and discuss developments in Syria, meets later today with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
A joint statement issued after Maliki’s talks on Tuesday with his counterpart Dmitry Medvedev said more than $4.2 billion in arms deals were agreed between the two sides as part of a tighter military cooperation plan.
Moscow will supply 30 Mil Mi-28NE night/all-weather capable attack helicopters, and 50 Pantsir-S1 gun-missile short-range air defense systems. The contracts are among the biggest ever signed between Iraq and Russia.
Further discussions were also said to be underway for Iraq’s eventual acquisition of a large group of MiG-29 fighters and helicopters along with heavy weaponry.
Russian arms industry analyst Russian Pukhov of the Center for Analysis of Strategy and Technologies, a Moscow-based think tank, tells Novosti the deal showed Baghdad's desire to break Washington's monopoly of arms supplies to Iraq.
"It's clear that America's influence on Iraq has been excessive. The Shiite government of this country is starting to conduct itself more independently of Washington, and more looking toward Iran," he said.
Russia is seeking to take its ties with Iraq to a new level and win almost certain support for its position on Syria.
Baghdad needs Moscow’s help in defense and military areas and needs arms to “defend itself and fight terrorism,” Maliki said in the Russian Foreign Ministry mansion on Monday.
Tariq Alhomayed, editor-in-chief of the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, believes Maliki aspires to be Assad’s “substitute” in the region.
Alhomayed explains in today’s leader:
The Iraqi premier’s visit to Russia and his signing of a large arms deal with Moscow evoke ruminations to ponder as to strategic choices and regional power balances, chiefly as regards Syria
Maliki is obviously trying to reconcile the irreconcilable. He is after simultaneous alliances with Tehran, Washington and Moscow, something no one was able to do in the region.
Turkey’s zero-problems foreign policy finds Ankara today immersed in the region’s problems. Independently of policy, problems pop up even when you ignore them. And they will drown you if you don’t tackle them properly.
A huge Russian arms deal won’t rebuild the Iraqi army, not when the U.S. continues to train and equip the Iraqi military.
It is an open secret that Moscow’s chief arms clients are either isolated Arab regimes, or ones trying to blackmail the U.S. and Europe for political gain.
If Iraq wanted to be an active Arab power player supportive of democracy and stability, why do a deal with Moscow, chief spoiler of a UN Security Council solution for Syria?
All evidence suggests Maliki yearns for superseding Assad. He is reassuring Moscow that it has a client ready to buy Russian weapons at present.
What Iraq has done is simply gift the Russians an alternative to Assad’s regime. Moscow can now claim it is far from being isolated in the Arab world.
Maliki hankers after superseding Assad in the region, albeit rolled out in new packaging. The new packaging will prove faulty nevertheless, for how can Maliki square the Tehran-Washington-Moscow circle or forge exceptional ties with his fellow-Arab countries?
Maliki’s wish to serve in Assad’s stead in the region transpires from his own remarks – that Baghdad needs Moscow’s help “to fight terrorism.”
Russia has been regurgitating “to fight terrorism” since the outbreak of the Syrian Revolution.
With the Russians taking “terrorists” to mean “Sunnites,” Maliki comes along to seek their cooperation in fighting them.
No need to think long and hard: Maliki aspires to supplant Assad in the region as the protector of its minorities and all the rest.

Friday, 21 September 2012

Cairo high spots Assad’s déjà vu


BIRDS OF A FEATHER: Assad in his interview and Putin in his hang glider next to a Siberian white crane

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has rehashed his lines.
He tells Egyptian weekly Al-Ahram al-Arabi in an interview appearing in full tomorrow, Saturday:

  • The terrorists won’t win, but defeating them will take time
  • The Libyan scenario won’t be repeated in Syria
  • Saudi Arabia and Qatar are nouveaux riche and the West’s surrogates
  • Qatar was the quickest to fuel violence in Syria
  • Saudi Arabia was behind Israel’s 1967 war on Egypt and does not appreciate the present Axis of Resistance against Zionism
  • Turkey is now guided by neo-Ottomanism
  • A triumvirate of Iraq-Syria-Egypt is the master key to Middle East stability
There is little else interesting or newsworthy in the excerpts from the interview with Assad posted on the magazine’s website.
What is intriguing though are the motives of a publication partly-owned by the Egyptian government for giving Assad a platform to attack the Syrian revolution and its leading regional backers.
It’s akin to a periodical in Washington choosing to interview Pol Pot when his gang was taking Cambodian lives during the mid-seventies.
Editorially, ingenious author and political analyst Samir Atallah writes in his daily column for Saudi Asharq Alawsat:
The latest statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry last Tuesday called for a return to the Geneva communiqué of the Action Group for Syria (AGS).
The said Geneva conference is where UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed raised a question that got no reply, “Where’s Kofi Annan?”
Kofi was in Tehran listening carefully to Iran’s love of peace and harmony in Syria and the region, and especially in Bahrain and the rest of the Gulf.
There’s something odd on the international stage concerning Syria. There are disparate languages and a monotonous tone. America is similar to Russia. Moscow repeats that the Syrian president need not stay in power. Washington has been reciting for a year that he is on his way out. Lakhdar Brahimi is meanwhile saying what Kofi Annan said.
In their opinion, Bashar al-Assad is restating his love of the homeland, the nation and steadfastness and that Syria has no problem other than countries arming terrorist gangs.
Everyone behaves as if the innocent people being killed every day were Siberian white cranes, the sort of endangered birds Vladimir Putin is trying to save from extinction.
The world is full of travesties. The most insolent of them is to see a world leader taking to the sky in a motorized hang glider while his warplanes were bombing Aleppo, raising the number of Syrian fatalities above 30,000.
The comportment of all sides vis-à-vis Syrians has been dull and repetitious in many languages.
Hillary Clinton did not offer Syrians more than Sergei Lavrov, who recently ceased his daily barbs, ordering his subordinates to do the talking instead.
One state used the veto and another followed in its suit. The pair crippled the Arab League and UN Security Council and agreed on doing nothing more than audit the daily numbers of killings in Syria.
In truth, both principals realize there’s no solution. All conferences and communiqués will lead to nothing other than what we see: carnage from the air, shrieks of death on the ground, tents awaiting refugees and storms, and the anticipation of Assad’s next verbiage and his dialogue with the opposition he cloned.

Friday, 7 September 2012

Putin’s take on the Syria crisis

President Vladimir Putin (right) and RT anchorman Kevin Owen

Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday gave his first post-inauguration interview to Russia Today (RT) TV Channel.
He spoke in depth with RT anchorman Kevin Owen ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Vladivostok.
The whirlwind interview covered military, political, economic and social issues of domestic and international concerns. They ranged from Barak Obama and Mitt Romney, to U.S. plans for a missile defense system in Europe and the global economy, to corruption and drugs, to Pussy Riots and group sex.
You can read the full English transcript of President Putin’s wide-ranging interview with RT by pressing here.
But here is what he said about the different aspects of the Syria crisis:

KEVIN OWEN: Ok, thanks for explaining that. We're going to come back to APEC a little bit later if we may, but you touched on another big subject in headlines, the horrendous events that have been unfolding in Syria over the last 18 months now. Russia' position has been steadfast all the way along the line. Here you've said there should be no foreign intervention and it should be the Syrian people who do the deciding and it should be done through diplomacy. However, that's a great idea, but day in day out innocent lives are being lost on both sides. Is it time for something more than talking? Should Russia be reassessing its position maybe now?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: How come Russia is the only one who’s expected to revise its stance? Don’t you think our counterparts in negotiations ought to revise theirs as well? Because if we look back at the events in the past few years, we’ll see that quite a few initiatives of our counterparts have not played out the way they were intended to.
Take the examples of the numerous countries ridden with escalating internal conflicts. The US and then its allies went into Afghanistan, and now they’re all looking forward to getting out of there. If there’s anything on the table, it’s the issue of assisting them in withdrawing their troops and hardware from Afghanistan through our transit routes.
Now, are you sure that country has been stabilized for decades to come? So far, no one is confident about it.
And look at what’s going on in Arab countries. There have been notable developments in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen. Would you say that order and prosperity have been totally ensured for these nations? And what’s going on in Iraq?
In Libya, there are in fact armed clashes still raging among the country’s various tribes. I won’t even mention the way the country had its regime changed: this is a separate topic. What concerns us, and I want to emphasize this once again, is the current hostilities in Syria. But at the same time, we are just as concerned about the possible consequences of certain decisions, should they be taken.
In our opinion, the most important task today is ending the violence. We must urge all the warring parties, including the government and the so-called rebels, the armed opposition, to sit down at the negotiating table and decide on a future that would guarantee security for all of the stakeholders within Syria. Only then should they get down to any practical measures regarding the country’s future system of governance. We realize that this country needs a change, but this doesn’t mean that change should come with bloodshed.

KEVIN OWEN: OK, well, given the facts regarding Syria that you see on the table now, what is the next step? What do you realistically think is going to happen next?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: We told our partners we would like to sit down together at the negotiating table in Geneva. And when we did, together we charted a roadmap for further action that would help bring peace to Syria and channel the developments into a more constructive path. We received almost unanimous support and shared the results of the talks with the Syrian government. But then the rebels actually refused to recognize those decisions; and many of the negotiating parties have also quietly backed down.
I believe that the first thing to do is to finally stop shipping arms into the warzone. We should stop trying to impose unacceptable solutions on either side, because it is a dead-end. That’s what we should do. It is that simple.
Luckily, we generally enjoy friendly relations with the Arab world, but we would like to stay away from sectarian conflicts in Islam, or interfere in a showdown involving the Sunnites, the Shiites, the Alawites and so on. We treat everyone with equal respect. We also get on well with Saudi Arabia and other countries; I have cultivated a warm personal relationship with the guardian of two Islamic shrines. The only underlying motive behind our stance is the desire to create a favorable environment for the situation to develop positively in years to come.

KEVIN OWEN: What are your thoughts about the United Nations and the way the United Nations has reacted particularly in Syria. There's been criticism that it's failed to deliver a unified front if you like and has become more of a figurehead organization. Do you share that view?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: Quite the contrary, I would say. My take on the issue is the absolute opposite of what you have just said. If the United Nations and the Security Council had indeed turned into a mere rubberstamping tool for any one of the member states, it would have ceased to exist, just like the League of Nations has. But the reality is that the Security Council and the UN are meant to be a tool for compromise. Seeking to achieve it is a long and complex process, but only this hard and tedious work can yield us fruit.

KEVIN OWEN: Understood. Mr. President, another question I'd like to ask you - a number of Western and Arab nations have been covertly ... with supporting the FSA, the Free Syrian Army - indeed, some of them are doing it openly now. Of course the catch here is that the FSA is suspected of hiring known Al-Qaeda fighters amongst their ranks. So the twist in this tale is that a lot of those countries are actually sponsoring terrorism, if you like, in Syria, countries that have suffered from terrible terrorism themselves. Is that a fair assessment?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: You know, whenever someone aspires to attain a much-desired end, any means will do. As a rule, they will try and do that by hook or by crook – and hardly ever think of the consequences that will follow. That was the case during the Afghan war after the Soviet Union in 1979 sent its troops to Afghanistan. At that time, our current partners supported a rebel movement there and basically gave rise to Al Qaeda, a United States pet project that later targeted its creator.
Today some people want to use militants from Al Qaeda or some other organizations with equally radical views to accomplish their goals in Syria. This policy is dangerous and very shortsighted. But in that case, one should unlock Guantanamo, arm all of its inmates and bring them to Syria to do the fighting – it's practically the same kind of people. But bear in mind that one day these people will get back at their patrons and eventually end up in a new prison, one that will very much resemble the camp off the Cuban shore. I would like to emphasize that this policy is very shortsighted and is fraught with dire consequences.

KEVIN OWEN: I'd like to broaden that a little bit now, a little bit wider from Syria. You touched upon Syria. Syria is in the middle of a civil war, we're seeing conflicts in Bahrain and in Saudi Arabia. Ok, things are a bit calmer in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia -- you mentioned it just now. But standing back from it overall, all the troubles that we've seen in the Middle East, all the turmoil there - has it been at all for the good or for the bad, where does it put that region now?
VLADIMIR PUTIN: You know, we can discuss this into the small hours and still run out of time. For me, it’s a clear fact that these events are historically logical and follow from these states’ development. The leaders of these countries have obviously overlooked the need for change and missed the ongoing trends at home and abroad, so they failed to produce the reforms which would have saved the day in due time. All these events simply logically stem from this background. Whether this is a blessing or a curse with many negative implications, is now too early to say.
In any case, the lack of a civilized approach, the high level of violence has so far stood in the way of building any sustainable political structures, which would help solve economic and social problems in societies hit by those events. This is what causes a lot of concern over the future situation, because the people in these countries, who have had enough of their previous regimes, clearly expect the new governments to begin with tackling their social and economic problems in a competent way. But with no political stability, these problems cannot be solved.

Tuesday, 4 September 2012

From Tehran to Grozny to Damascus



I was disheartened to read what a Syrian activist wrote today in Arabic on his Twitter page, which translates as:
“Don’t read a word of the Arabs’ scripts. Their warfare is hearsay. Their sword is timber-made. Their love is betrayal. And their pledge is a lie.”
But reading shortly after an overnight Agence France Presse (AFP) dispatch filed by Dominique Soguel from Aleppo soothed my heartache.
The dispatch, which is very widely quoted today in the regional media, reads:
ALEPPO, Syria — Veteran war surgeon Jacques Bérès has his own compelling reasons for urging that a no-fly zone be imposed over Syria -- one bomb dropped by the regime leaves more wounded than doctors can fix in a day.
Working under cover in the northern city of Aleppo, which has been pounded for weeks as President Bashar al-Assad’s forces seek to overrun rebel bastions, Bérès insists the death toll in the Syrian conflict is higher than what is reported.
“At least 50,000 people have been killed without counting the disappeared,” Bérès, a French surgeon who daily patches up dozens of people in a hospital near the frontlines of Aleppo, told AFP in an interview.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has a network of activists on the ground across Syria, has given a latest toll of at least 26,283 people killed in Syria since the revolt began in March last year -- 18,695 civilians, 1,079 defectors and 6,509 troops.
But Bérès said watchdogs such as the Britain-based Observatory are unable to paint a full picture of the losses because many deaths are documented “only with ink and paper.”
“I am sure that the dead that I have here are not tallied in London,” said Bérès.
In the past two weeks, he said, he has treated a daily average of 20 to 45 wounded people, the majority of them fighters with the opposition Free Syria Army, including “quite a few jihadists.”
Fatalities in rebel ranks range between two and six each day, he said.
But those are just the figures collected in one small hospital within a massive commercial city, which is now almost evenly divided between rebel and army-controlled areas.
Many grey zones lie between both camps and the security situation remains fluid: shops open and pedestrian traffic has resumed in some neighborhoods while tank shells and mortar hit others.
“It is shameful that a no-fly zone hasn’t been set up,” said the co-founder of Médecins Sans Frontières, or Doctors Without Borders, setting aside a cup of tea to review X-rays and offer a Syrian colleague advice on how best to dislodge a bullet from a man's leg.
“It is an incredible massacre. Even if now it is a civil war, it is a very asymmetric conflict: light weapons against tanks and aerial bombardment,” said Bérès, whose experience on the field covers almost every major war from Vietnam in the sixties to Libya last year.
“All this because they asked for a little bit of freedom and said that they had enough of Bashar.”
This is the third humanitarian mission that Bérès has undertaken to Syria this year, backed variously by organizations such as France Syrie Democracie, UAM93, Doctors Without Borders, and AAVS (Association d'Aide aux Victimes en Syrie).
He was in the central city of Homs in February when the neighborhood of Baba Amr was decimated by Assad forces.
In May he roamed around Idlib province where he says pro-regime soldiers destroyed pharmacies and burned a clinic down to the ground.
Bérès, in his seventies, has been smuggling himself into the country at great risk, armed only with the firm belief that he has a “humanitarian duty to heal” even though “in one second a bomb leaves more people wounded than a surgeon can fix in a day.”
Compare the above with:
(1) The futile attempts made last February by a group of Jordanian, Egyptian, Tunisian and Gulf Arab physicians affiliated with the Arab Doctors Union to enter Syria. They gathered at Jordan's northern border with Syria, demanding that they either be allowed inside to treat Syrians wounded or that those injured be permitted to seek medical care outside the country. Damascus turned down their request three times on both counts.
(2) The shocking remark made by Assad last June, when he compared his security forces to surgeons working to save the life of their patients. Speaking before his newly selected parliament, he said: “When a surgeon ... cuts and cleans and amputates, and the wound bleeds, do we say to him your hands are stained with blood? Or do we thank him for saving the patient?”
Separately, prominent Lebanese novelist playwright, critic and public intellectual Elias Khoury comments today on what he describes as the journey “From Tehran to Grozny to Damascus.”
Writing for the London-based pan-Arab daily al-Quds al-Arabi, Khoury says the Assad regime’s crackdown on the Syrian opposition “has gone through two stages: the Iranian phase stretching from the onset of the uprising in March 2011 to the blitzing of Baba Amr in March 2012, followed by the second phase that I would call the Chechen phase.”
Khoury continues:
In the first phase, the Assad regime sought to implement the plan Tehran used to stifle the 2009-2010 Green Revolution that erupted in Iran after the so-called “re-election” of Mahmud Ahmadinejad as president.
The Iranian template proved inapplicable in Syria because it was unrelated to Syrian reality.
The Green Revolution had its roots in the major cities, chiefly Tehran. It failed to take off in the rural areas. The latter remained loyal to the concept of Wilayat al Faqih advanced by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. Moreover, the political legitimacy of the Iranian command derived from its doctrinal and religious legitimacy as enunciated by Khomeini.
The Syrian Revolution in contrast broke out first in cities a long way from the country’s political capital Damascus and its economic heart Aleppo.
Brutal repression of protests in the rural cities incited the Syrian countryside to join the revolution. Suppression of the insurgency by the classical measures used in Iran proved unworkable.
The failed attempt simply triggered defections from army ranks, the rise of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the public’s recourse to arms. Instead of their revolt being stifled, Syria’s rural areas inflamed the insurgency in the two centers of political and economic gravity, Damascus and Aleppo.
This is not to mention also that the Syrian regime draws neither social nor political nor religious legitimacy.
When the Iranian template proved ill suited, the Syrian regime fell back on another mold for its second phase of repression: the Chechnya template featuring the destruction of Grozny.
The Chechnya-Grozny blueprint is the brainchild of “Russian mini tsar Vladimir Putin.” It allowed the Russian Federation to use the massive firepower of its artillery, tanks and warplanes to systematically obliterate Grozny.
The Assad regime’s recourse to the Chechnya model is shortsighted:
  1. Because Chechnya has a population of about one million and forms part of the Russian Federation, which surrounds it on all sides. It sought to break away from Russia and become independent. This is nothing like the Syrian Revolution, which is a revolution by a majority of citizens against a tyrant, instead of foreign rule.
  2. Because the “mini Tsar sitting in Moscow fought his war against a weak and dispossessed ethnic minority under the banner of protecting Russia. But the “mini Mamlouk” sitting in Damascus is not fighting a small town of 400,000 people like Grozny but all Syrian cities.
The Chechen solution for Syria is collapsing, much like the Iranian solution before it, Khoury concludes.
(Interestingly, Russia state news agency RIA Novosti reports today: “Simultaneously with the threat of attacks on civil airports [by the FSA], the Foreign Ministry [in Moscow] advised Russians not to travel to Syria and advised Russians already in Syria to find the safest available routes out of the country.”) 

Monday, 3 September 2012

Lakhdar Brahimi and Syria’s Rivers of Blood

Death counts from the Syrian Shuhada site

A total of 12,819 Syrians – 1,126 of them children and 1,244 females – were killed on Kofi Annan’s watch during his Syria troubleshooting mission between April 12 and August 19 this year.
The big question is how many more Syrian men, women and children will die before his successor Lakhdar Brahimi fails or succeeds in his role as new UN-Arab League envoy on Syria.
The Syrian Revolution Data Base, Syrian Shuhada (Syrian Martyrs), referred to by some branches of the United Nations, puts at 29,396 the total number of civilians and military killed in the 534-day Syria bloodbath up to September 1st.
Of these, 6,438 Syrians – or almost 22 percent of the total -- were killed in the month of August alone.
The main reason the numbers by Syrian Shuhada are high is because it counts unidentified bodies.
So in terms of per capita ratio, the total Syria death toll between mid-March 2011 and end-August 2012 translates to about 203,000 Russians or 433,000 Americans!
As he takes up his post, Brahimi has given a deeply pessimistic view of the task ahead of him.
He tells Lyse Doucet, Chief International Correspondent, BBC News, in an exclusive interview in New York:
“I’m coming into this job with my eyes open, and no illusions. I know how difficult it is -- how nearly impossible. I can’t say impossible -- [it is] nearly impossible.”
Brahimi admitted some trepidation about his new mission, saying he could understand those frustrated with the lack of international action in Syria.
“I'm scared of the weight of responsibility. People are already saying people are dying and what are you doing?
“And we are not doing much. That in itself is a terrible weight.”
Brahimi said he had so far failed to see “any cracks” in the “brick wall” that had defeated Annan -- an “intransigent” Syrian government, escalating rebel violence and a paralyzed UN Security Council, where China and Russia have vetoed several resolutions aimed at putting pressure on Damascus.
 A growing number of Syrians have fled abroad to escape the conflict.
He said he would keep Annan's six-point peace plan -- now seen by many as irrelevant -- in his “tool box” for possible adaptation, but admitted he “had ideas, but no plan yet,” apart from talking to as many people as possible.
Addressing the Syrian government, he said the need for political change in Syria was “fundamental and urgent,” but -- as he has previously -- refused to be drawn on whether President Assad should step down, as the opposition and several Western leaders are demanding.
“Change cannot be cosmetic,” he said. “There will be a new order but I do not know who will be the people in the order. That’s for Syrians to decide.”
He also sought to keep a distance between himself and the rebels, who have criticized him for his cautious stance.
“Please remember I am not joining your movement,” he said. “I am working for two international organizations, the United Nations and the Arab League, and I do not speak the same language as you.”
Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, notes in his leader today that Annan, in his parting shots, took aim at President Assad and at Russia and China. “He asked the former to step aside and blamed the latter pair for stopping the Security Council from speaking with one voice.”
Charbel adds:
Brahimi was closely watching Annan’s mission. He was aware of the locked Syrian, Iranian and Russian doors. People familiar with his modus operandi say he won’t travel around like his predecessor carrying a peace plan abridged in points.
He won’t hurry to place his cards on the table. Above all, “he won’t offer food to those who feel satiated.”
Brahimi can’t impose a solution and won’t start promoting the outlines of one. Most probably, he will play for patience and anticipation.
He can’t mediate seriously before the two parties to the Syria conflict feel “hungry” – “hungry” for an exit, that is.
His role can’t start in earnest before the two adversaries realize their chance of a knockout win is implausible, impossible and prohibitively costly.
Maybe Brahimi is playing for weariness and despair creeping to the two rivals’ hearts.
The regime would concede that it can’t win back control of the whole country; that persisting in the confrontation compounds future risks to allies fighting on its side; that victory is beyond reach, even with sustained Iranian and Russian support.
The regime would conclude in that case that it must search for a way out, even if the expected medicine is bitter or debilitating.
Perhaps Brahimi is also betting on the opposition eventually concluding (1) that a triumph is impossible without external military intervention, which doesn’t seem in the cards or attractive to world powers capable of mounting one (2) or that the bloody clash has turned into one among the country’s components, when experience shows that infighting among components allows scoring points but precludes decisive blows (3) or that such a clash among components risks killing the country’s unity and territorial integrity first and foremost (4) or that a protracted showdown  risks turning Syria into a regional sectarian war theater, which the opposition shuns because it is fighting to build a new Syria whose components would coexist in a democratic, free and egalitarian state.
The aforesaid leads to the painful conclusion that for his mission to succeed Brahimi needs new rivers of blood, additional waves of refugees to neighboring countries and more gruesome massacres, devastated villages and shattered neighborhoods.
To succeed, Brahimi needs the two sides to give up hope of a knockout win and to feel “hungry” for a way out of the blood-soaked tunnel.
He also needs Vladimir Putin to acknowledge that his excessive reliance on the spoiler’s role risks isolating and seriously undermining Russia’s image and interests in the Arab and Islamic worlds and internationally.
Brahimi likewise needs Iran to recognize that it cannot safeguard its past decade’s surge and has to ponder such things as damage limitations, likely compensations and private regional consultations.
I know, Charbel concludes, mine are harsh words falling on the ears of those who lost their loved ones, their livelihoods and their dreams. But everything points to the cycle of violence mounting before Brahimi can start handing out wound dressings, guarantees and visions to new Syria’s components.