Syria: Extra year of Annan as global zookeeper

My first reaction on hearing Kofi Annan’s press briefing after Saturday’s meeting of the “Action Group on Syria” was that the UN-Arab League special envoy to Syria has just given himself a one-year job as “Syria traffic warden.”

Writing in a somewhat similar sarcastic vein, George Semaan, a former editor-in-chief of pan-Arab al-Hayat, today suggests “Annan’s mission will be kept alive so long as there remains living souls in Syria.”

What was required of the Action Group meeting, he writes, “was to avoid pronouncing the mission dead. Hence the escape forward and a pseudo-agreement on a declamation that was ambiguous in its wording but clear in its spirit.

“The aim was to allow all participants – except the Syrians of course -- to interpret the declamation whimsically to match their avowed positions and respective links with the protagonists.”

Semaan says, “Annan’s mission is no longer tied to a timetable. His mandate won’t be ending in mid-month. The new plan gives him a year or more to go through the roadmap and the transition…

“The deliberate ambiguity in the declamation gives a leeway to all the sides. In particular, it gives Russia and the United States extra time. The important thing was to keep the political option as the only one on the table…

“The policies of ‘gaining time’ and ‘constructive ambiguity’ allowed the major players to reach an understanding in Geneva.

“But the Syrian sides’ positions can’t afford further ‘destructive clarity.’ Neither is President Assad’s ‘eclipse’ within reach nor can his adversaries sit down with his puppets. The revolution was meant to throw him out, so how can (insurrectionists) now risk uplifting him and his regime? It’s probably too late to envisage a solution like in Egypt or Yemen…”

In the opinion of Egyptian talk show host and columnist Imad Adeeb, “Short of an under-the-counter deal between all the delegations and the one from Russia, the outcome of the (Geneva) meeting is ‘inconsequential’ and ‘vague.’ Like water, it has no taste, color or odor but simply boosts killings and massacres…

“Washington has no preoccupation other than the presidential elections in November… the European Union is licking its wounds and laden with the debts of Greece and Spain… Beijing and Moscow are meantime playing the role of a skilled opportunist waiting for the right time to sacrifice the Assad regime in return for winning international guarantees that its replacement in Damascus would safeguard his interests.”

Fascinatingly, remarks Adeeb, the Geneva meeting’s closing statement “is equivocal. The Syrian opposition sees it as politically catastrophic and a license for prolonging killings and massacres. The UN perceives it as a positive step. Mrs. Clinton claims it clearly outlines the shape of the post-Assad regime. The Assad regime feels, without explicitly admitting, it won a minimum six-month extension to its political life.”

Asking, “Now what?” in his leader today, Tariq Alhomayed, editor-in-chief of the Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, writes: “The answer is simple – there is no political solution on the horizon…

“The Geneva conference is not the be-all and end-all of the crisis. It is not a loss for the Syrian revolution. It is proof that what the revolutionaries do on the ground is what makes the difference. Consequently, it is imperative to deem the Geneva conference a non-event and continue arming the Syrian opposition...”

Mulling over “an extra year for Annan,” brilliant Lebanese writer and columnist Samir Atallah writes:

“Annan’s (success) chances are still below 10 percent. They shot so high because the polar Bear decided to send Sergei Lavrov to Geneva with a ‘yes’ shackled by a thousand conditions. China in turn chose to doze off on her pillow.

“Who knows? Maybe 20,000 deaths would budge the Bear or stir the Dragon… Maybe I hastened as well to give vent to my feelings and criticize the man whose friends call ‘Kofi.’

“Problem is tragic events have left the world numb. It’s a world of Bears, Dragons and Elephants who do not want to upset the Lion (Arabic for Assad).” 

Syria: Can Annan’s new rabbit fly?

Much like a magician, Kofi Annan, the international troubleshooter for Syria, has pulled a second rabbit out of his hat.

It took about three months for his much-trumpeted six-point peace plan to be declared dead and buried together with more than 3,000 Syrian men, women and children.

We’re now into his more ambitious brainchild – a roadmap for establishing “a transitional unity government in Syria” to be discussed tomorrow in Geneva.

Nice try. But, in my opinion, this new rabbit just won’t fly either.

Raghida Dergham, the political analyst and diplomatic correspondent in Washington and at UN headquarters in New York for pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, does not exactly share my view and hedges her bets on Annan’s new blueprint.

However, wondering in her weekly column if tomorrow’s meeting in Geneva would deliver a political solution in Syria under Russian auspices, she remarks: “Kofi Annan himself would be putting his plan and his mission in jeopardy if he kept spending time on patching the big powers’ relations while conditions on the ground in Syria continue going from bad to worse…”

Emile Khoury, another Lebanese political analyst writing for the Beirut daily an-Nahar, notes, “If tomorrow’s meeting in Geneva does not yield a solution based on Annan’s roadmap, or a Russian-American tradeoff whereby the U.S. removes Assad and Russia names his replacement, Syria would turn into a battleground for proxy wars that wouldn’t end before the country came apart at the seams.”

Annan outlined his roadmap to the parties meeting in Geneva in a non-paper, or a text for negotiation, entitled “On Guidelines and Principles of a Syrian-led transition.” UN correspondent Nabil Abi Saab was able to obtain the document and publish it overnight on his blog UN Report.

Here is what it states:

Guidelines and Principles for a Syrian-led Transition

“Any political settlement must deliver to the people of Syria a transition that:

- Offers a perspective for the future that can be shared by all in Syria;

-- Establishes clear steps according to a firm timetable towards the realization of that perspective;

-- Can be implemented in a climate of safety for all, stability and calm;

-- Is reached rapidly without further bloodshed and violence and is credible.

1. Perspective for the Future

The aspirations of the people of Syria have been clearly expressed by the wide range of Syrians I have consulted. There is an overwhelming wish for a state that:

-- Is genuinely democratic and pluralistic, giving space to established and newly emerging political actors to compete fairly and equally in elections. This also means that the commitment to multiparty democracy must be lasting one, going beyond an initial round of elections.

-- Complies with international standards on human rights, the independence of the judiciary, accountability of those in government and the rule of law. It is not enough just to enunciate such a commitment. There must be mechanisms available to the people to ensure that commitments are kept by those in authority.

-- Offers equal opportunities and chances for all. There is no room for sectarianism or discrimination on ethnic, religious, linguistic or any other grounds. Numerically smaller communities must be assured that their rights will be respected.

 2. Clear Steps in the Transition

The conflict in Syria will only end when all sides are assured that there is a peaceful way towards a common future for all in Syria. It is therefore essential that any settlement provides for clear and irreversible steps in transition according to a fixed time frame. The key steps in any transition include:

-- The establishment of a Transitional Government of National Unity, which can establish a neutral environment in which the transition can take place. That means that the Government of National Unity would exercise full executive powers. It could include members of the present government and the opposition and other groups, but would exclude from government those whose continued presence and participation would undermine the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation.

-- It is for the people to determine the future of the country. All groups and segments of society in Syria must be enabled to participate in a National Dialogue process. That process must not only be inclusive, it must also be meaningful, that is to say, its key outcomes must be implemented.

-- On this basis, there can be a review of the constitutional order and the legal system. The result of constitutional drafting would be subject to popular approval.

-- Once the new constitutional order is established, it is necessary to prepare for and conduct free and fair multiparty elections for the new institutions and offices that have been established.

-- Women must be fully represented in all aspects of the transition.

3. Safety, stability and calm

Any transition involves change. However it is essential to ensure that the transition can be implemented in a way that assures the safety of all in an atmosphere of stability and calm. This requires:

-- Consolidation of full calm and stability. All parties must cooperate with the Transitional Government of National Unity in ensuring the permanent cessation of violence. This includes completion of withdrawals and addressing the issue of the disarming, demobilization and reintegration of armed groups.

-- Effective steps to ensure that vulnerable groups are protected and immediate action is taken to address humanitarian issues in areas of need. It is also necessary to ensure that the release of the detained is completed rapidly.

-- Continuity of governmental institutions and qualified staff. The public services must be preserved or restored. This includes the military forces and security services. However, all governmental institutions, including the. intelligence services, have to perform according to human rights and professional standard and operate under a top leadership that inspires public confidence, under the control of the Transitional Government of National Unity.

-- Commitment to Accountability and National Reconciliation. Accountability for acts committed during the present conflict must be addressed. There also needs to be a comprehensive package for transitional justice, including compensation of rehabilitation for victims of the present conflict, steps towards national reconciliation and forgiveness.

4. Rapid steps to come to a Credible Political Agreement

It is for the people of Syria to come to a political agreement, but time is running out. It is clear that:

-- The sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Syria must be respected.

-- The conflict must be resolved through peaceful dialogue and negotiation alone. Conditions conducive to a political settlement must now be put in place.

-- There must be an end to bloodshed. All parties must re-commit themselves credibly to the six-point plan. This must include a cessation of armed violence in 'all its forms and immediate, credible and visible actions to implement items 2-6 of the six-point plan.

-- All parties must now engage genuinely with the Joint Special Envoy. The parties must be prepared to put forward effective interlocutors to work expeditiously towards a Syrian-led settlement that meets the legitimate aspirations of the people. The process must be fully inclusive to ensure that the views of all segments of Syrian society are heard in shaping the political settlement for the transition.

-- The organized international community, including the members of the Action Group stands ready to offer significant support for the implementation of an agreement reached by the parties. This may include an international assistance presence under a United Nations Mandate if requested. Significant funds will be available to support reconstruction and rehabilitation.”

Syria bazaar: Yemen scenario or Kosovo option?

Multilateral talks on Special Envoy Kofi Annan's Syrian mediation plan should seek to secure a ceasefire but not determine in advance the shape of a possible national unity government, Russia said today.

“The meeting in Geneva was intended to support Kofi Annan's plan and it must set the conditions for the end of violence and the start of an all-Syrian national dialogue, and not predetermine the contents of this dialogue,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a briefing.

Lavrov is expected to discuss Annan’s proposal with the other four permanent UN Security Council members and key regional players in Geneva on Saturday.

Speaking in Moscow, Lavrov said the Annan plan was not, however, a final document and he expressed dismay that it had been leaked to the media ahead of the Geneva talks.

Earlier in the day, Bloomberg quoted three UN diplomats as saying Russia has endorsed Annan’s detailed roadmap for a political transition in Syria, a sign that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost the support of a key ally.

Persuading Assad to step aside and forming a transitional government to pave the way for elections will be at the core of the Geneva meeting, the officials said. All three asked not to be identified by Bloomberg because the talks are private.

Annan earlier this week gave the parties to the talks a few days to respond to a set of recommendations entitled “On Guidelines and Principles of a Syrian-led transition.” By late on June 26, the Russians had accepted the paper in full, including language that spells out Assad’s departure, according to the three officials, who all were informed of the decision.

The Annan document, which was reviewed by Bloomberg News, says a transitional government may include members of Assad’s government and opposition and other groups, although not “those whose continued presence and participation would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation.”

Speaking in Helsinki on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she had been in regular contact with Annan over his transition plan.

She did not make public details of his proposal, but noted: “I’ve been in close consultation with special envoy Kofi Annan about the prospects for a meeting that would focus on a roadmap for political transition in Syria.”

Annan “has developed his own very concrete roadmap for political transition, he has been circulating it for comments and when I spoke to him yesterday I conveyed our support for the plan that he has put forward,” said Clinton.

“We think it embodies the principles needed for any political transition in Syria that could lead to a peaceful, democratic and representative outcome reflecting the will of the Syrian people,” she added.

Yemen or Kosovo

Editorially, Lebanese political analyst Abdelwahhab Badrakhan, writing for the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, says Annan’s roadmap for political transition in Syria leaves Damascus choosing between “the Yemen scenario and the Kosovo option.”

The Yemen scenario would nudge Assad out of office as happened to Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The Kosovo option would see the Syrian regime forcibly evicted by joint internal and international military action. Where the regime is concerned, it’s a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea.

To explain the current state of play, Badrakhan starts with a metaphor, writing:

After lip-reading the televised remarks of US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and observing their body language at the recent G20 summit, a Damascus denizen figured:

The American asks the Russian: How much for your share in the partnership (with the Syrian regime)?

The Russian: A million dollars.

The American: Too much.

The Russian: I’ve been building the partnership for 50 years. I invested a lot in it.

The American: I’ll give you $100,000 for your share and keep you as company chairman.

The Russian: Too little… I might not want to sell after all.

The American: Reconsider and better take the offer. In two months you could be pushed out and left with nothing.

In essence, Badrakhan continues, the elements of caricature in this hypothetical dialogue also sums up the regime’s current circumstances. “The regime was urged to end its crackdown, to lead the political reform and to stop the killings. The Arab League intervened to help it cease the violence and open a dialogue with the opposition. When none of this worked, a joint UN-Arab intercession followed. But the regime kept piling its failures and moving from stupidity to arrogance, from murders to massacres, and from shabiha to scorched earth and ethnic cleansing policies – all the time thinking it would get away with its war crimes.

“Having dissipated all chances of an internal political solution, a peaceful transition and a safe way out, the regime left the international community no alternative but to oversee its exit.”

Badrakhan believes the regime is unfit and can’t be trusted to play a role in Syria’s future.

“Endorsement of Annan’s roadmap for political transition in Syria at Saturday’s Geneva meeting would mark the start of an international entente on a political solution for Syria on terms the regime invariably sought to evade and sidestep.

“Even Russia and Iran realize the regime must pay the price for getting a solution going. Whereas the regime could have sacrificed a few heads at the onset of the crisis, it is now bound to part with its own.”

Despite its apprehensions, the opposition too would have to accommodate the international entente and accept the roadmap once adopted. That would be the only way to put all the pieces of the jigsaw together since “the regime is unable to prevail despite its arsenal and the uprising is incapable of bringing down the regime although it crippled it.”

In any case, says Badrakhan, all this is hypothetical. “The proposed roadmap could bear fruit quickly, or it could drag on due to regime intransigence or Russian-Chinese-Iranian considerations and ambitions. But the solution’s cornerstone is to see the last of the head of the regime and its bunch of murderers.

“The roadmap’s flaw is that it would seek to build an alternative regime from disparate components. Its forte is a burgeoning American-Russian understanding. What is certain is that its success or failure would determine the nature of international intervention needed in either case: the Yemen template if it succeeded or the Kosovo scenario if it failed.”

UPDATE: Saturday meeting on Syria without Iran

Following is a statement issued today by Kofi Annan, the Joint Special Envoy of the United Nations and the Arab League for Syria:



“The Action Group for Syria will convene at the Ministerial level this Saturday, the 30th of June, in Geneva. 

Today, I have sent invitations to the Foreign Ministers of the five permanent members of the Security Council -- China, France, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States of America -- and Turkey.

“Invitations have also gone to the Secretaries-General of the United Nations and the League of Arab States, and to the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy; as well as to the Foreign Ministers of Iraq, as Chair of the Summit of the League of Arab States; Kuwait, as Chair of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the League of Arab States and Qatar, as Chair of the Follow-up Committee on Syria of the League of Arab States.



“The objectives of the Action Group for Syria are to identify steps and measures to secure full implementation of the six-point plan and Security Council resolutions 2042 and 2043, including an immediate cessation of violence in all its forms.

“The Action Group for Syria should also agree on guidelines and principles for a Syrian-led political transition that meets the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people; and agree on actions that will make these objectives a reality on the ground.



“I look forward to a productive meeting this weekend, where we can all agree on concrete actions to end the cycle of violence and bring peace and stability to the Syrian people.”