Cuba, Baghdad and turning Aleppo to rubble & ash

Aleppo's souks on fire (Photo from BBC News)

Raging battles between Syrian government forces and rebels in the historic districts of central Aleppo have started a major fire that threatens to destroy the city's medieval markets.

Reports say hundreds of shops in the souk, one of the best preserved in the Middle East, have been destroyed.

The labyrinth of narrow alleys lined with shops was once a major tourist attraction, but has been the scene of near-daily firefights and shelling in recent weeks, after rebels who fought their way into the city two months ago pushed toward its center.

Some activists described the overnight blaze as the worst blow yet to a district that helped make the heart of Aleppo, Syria's largest city and commercial hub, a UNESCO world heritage site.

The fire started late Friday amid heavy government shelling and was still burning Saturday, activists told The Associated Press. Video posted online showed a pall of smoke hanging over the city.

One Aleppo-based activist, Ahmad al-Halabi, estimated the fire destroyed a majority of the shops in the district.

"It's a disaster. The fire is threatening to spread to remaining shops," said al-Halabi, speaking to AP from the stricken area by telephone. He claimed Syrian authorities cut the water supply off the city, making it more difficult to put out the fire. He said rebels and civilians were working together to control the fire with a limited number of fire extinguishers.

"It is a very difficult and tragic situation there," he said.

The souks -- a maze of vaulted passageways with shops that sell everything from foods, fabrics, perfumes, spices and artisan souvenirs -- lie beneath Aleppo's towering citadel where activists say regime troops and snipers have taken up positions.

Many of the shops have wooden doors, and clothes, fabrics and leather inside helped spread the fire, activists said.

"It's a big loss and a tragedy that the old city has now been affected," Kishore Rao, director of UNESCO's World Heritage Center, told AP.

In awarding heritage status, UNESCO said Aleppo's "13th-century citadel, 12th-century Great Mosque and various 17th-century madrasas, palaces, caravanserais and hammams all form part of the city's cohesive, unique urban fabric."

The Guardian says Aleppo's souks are not the only Syrian cultural treasures to have fallen victim to the violence following the country's uprising and the crackdown by the Assad regime.

Some of the country's most significant sites, including centuries-old fortresses, have been caught in the crossfire in battles between regime forces and rebels. Others have been turned into military bases. In Homs, where up to 7,000 are estimated to have died, historic mosques and souk areas have also been smashed and artifacts stolen.

In his Aleppo-related column this morning for the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, the peerless Samir Atallah writes of “Cuba, Baghdad and Aleppo.”

In his words, as rephrased from Arabic:

Politics has many rules that are mostly uncivil and unethical. Rules in politics often prioritize interests over humans. The latter are at times sacrificed on account of concern or cowardice.

Cuba was at one point the Soviet Union’s Number One ally -- a Communist island nation (just 90 miles) off U.S. shores. Moscow, for Cuba’s sake, risked a nuclear war that could have devastated the world.

A while later, America started instigating East Europe against the Soviets. As soon as it felt America’s grip tightening around its neck, Moscow counseled Fidel Castro to stop backing Communist movements in Latin America.

Though he fancied painting the whole southern hemisphere red, Castro desisted – not so much to avoid irritating Moscow but for fear of an American-Soviet deal at his expense. Who says Russia won’t close its eyes to an American invasion of Cuba such as America let pass the Soviets’ occupation of Prague?

“Today’s Iraq” resembles the “1960s Cuba.” Today’s Iraq has ideological ties with Iran. It also complies with demands from its American ally, who signed away at the White House the State of Law Coalition to the epitome of democracy, Nouri al-Maliki.

When Barack Obama’s busy schedule prevented him from flying to Baghdad, Maliki hopped over to Washington to receive the freedom keys. And as soon as he returned to Baghdad, Maliki refocused on reconciling his old crush on Iran with new American constraints. That’s why when America told him Iran should stop using Iraqi airspace to fly arms to Syria, he listened to his head, not his heart – or so it seems.

In the Syria war, each has a tie-in. We don’t need to know them all today. We could get to know them after a while or when it is too late. But there is certainly a link-in-the-chain that makes Hilary Clinton talk more like a political analyst from The Times than a secretary of state.

There is another tie-in that makes China stand by Russia against Arab states and their Arab League, Europe and the Muslim-world-minus-Iran.

In politics, no rule prevents the monitoring of developments on the ground to gauge the power balance instead of to take care of victims. That’s why no one sees the Bombing of Aleppo as akin to the Bombing of Dresden.

In 1975, Suleiman Franjieh sent two rusting Hawker Hunter warplanes to bomb Palestinian refugee camps. The outcry in the Arab world saw the fighter-bomber jets hangared again.

Each day, loathsome MIGs take to Syria’s skies to pound cities and turn Aleppo neighborhoods into piles of rubble and ash.

Meantime, the world at the United Nations still has to listen to the speeches of Sergei Lavrov.

Hazardous American switch of Egyptian horses

AP photos of Clinton with Tantawi today (above) and Morsy yesterday

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was at this writing meeting with Egypt's Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, a day after holding talks with newly-elected President Mohamed Morsy and urging a “smooth transition” to full democracy.

She landed in Egypt on Saturday in the middle of a tug of war between the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) headed by Tantawi and Morsy, a longtime member of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Morsy triggered the standoff by ordering parliament to reconvene in defiance of SCAF’s earlier decision to disband the people’s assembly.

After her Saturday meeting with Morsy, Clinton told a news conference her talks with Tantawi would focus on “working to support the military’s return to a purely national security role.”

She said, “As compared to what we are seeing in Syria, which is the military murdering their own people, the SCAF here protected the Egyptian nation,” and had oversaw free elections. “But there is more work ahead, and I think the issues around the parliament, the constitution have to be resolved between and among Egyptians.”

Egypt’s media star and talk show host Imad Adeeb speaks of “A Dangerous Visit to Cairo.”

Clinton’s arrival in the Egyptian capital, he writes in his daily column for the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, “comes at a historic crossroads” for U.S. policy.

“The visit comes at a time when the U.S. administration is changing Egyptian horses in midstream – from betting on the military since the 1952 coup to betting on the Muslim Brotherhood movement’s rule.

“The shift affects the old SCAF ally, whose sun is dusking, as well as Brotherhood forces, whose moon is shining…

“Clinton comes to Egypt amidst a constitutional, legal, popular and information struggle that risks turning bloody.

“She comes after half the Egyptian electorate voted against her administration-backed Brotherhood candidate.

“Clinton comes when SCAF are almost certain she will be blessing the Muslim Brotherhood’s push for a new presidential decree retiring the SCAF generals and appointing Muslim Brothers to head the General Intelligence Directorate (GIS), the State Security Investigations Service (SSI) and the ministries of Justice, Foreign Affairs, Interior and Defense.”

Adeeb’s conclusion is that such “knockout policy blow” would lead either “to extended and stable Muslim Brotherhood rule, or a military coup in a matter of days, or a state of permanent chaos.”

Minutes of Assad-Annan new truce deal

Add caption

Known as Syria’s mouthpiece, Beirut’s daily al-Akhbar has a proven record of privileged access to authoritative news and views from Damascus.

Today, the paper’s front-page screamer consists of four words: “The Assad-Annan agreement.”

Though bylined Jean Aziz, the front-page lead actually highlights what I deem to be the minutes of the meeting between UN Special Envoy Kofi Annan and President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on Monday, July 9.

Jean Aziz is a Lebanese socio-political activist, journalist, university professor and talk show host. He is now close to Michel Aoun, Christian leader of Lebanon’s Free Patriotic Movement and a maverick ally of both Syria and Hezbollah.

Here is what I believe was passed on to Aziz by Damascus:

****

The meeting between President Assad and UN Special Envoy Annan lasted an hour and a half.

The atmosphere was relaxed. There was no mention of the UN mission’s failure or of the tough talk by the (July 6 “Friends of Syria”) conference in Paris. Both sides spoke of the situation on the ground “in order to put in place a specific mechanism for a ceasefire” and of the coveted political dialogue between the Syrian government and its opponents.

Jean Aziz

The meeting between President Assad and Special Envoy Annan, both renowned to be courteous was in the presence of Gen. Robert Mood, head of UNSMIS, and Martin Griffith, head of the UN mission in Syria.

Annan started the conversation by saying he had been following the Syrian president’s recent interviews with the German TV network (ARD) and Turkey’s Gumhuriyet daily, remarking: “It seems, Mr. President, you’ve been increasing your media exposure of late.”

Assad replied with a smile on his face: “That’s true. The reason is twofold. One, I am the type of person who prefers to act then talk. Two, I noticed lately there is an almost total blackout on the facts and a good deal of manipulation and distortion of realities and events. That’s why I thought it was my duty to speak up.”

Annan grasped the hint and said he was aware of the difference between happenings on the ground and fictional scenarios and concocted impressions being broadcast.

Annan then started his official presentation, saying: “Mr. President, I thought it was my duty after the (June 30 “Action Group on Syria”) conference we held in Geneva, and in the countdown to my July 20-21 briefing of the UN Security Council, to meet with you and update you on what we did and what we need to follow through.”

It was obvious from his opening sentence that Annan did not want to mention the Paris conference from far or near. No did he wish to dwell on the post-Paris hype.

Annan went further, seizing the opportunity to reiterate his and the UN’s adherence to his six-point plan. He explicitly told his presidential host the Geneva conference declaration did no more than endorse his six-point initiative, adding: “I am sure you know, Mr. President, that what actually took place in Geneva does not tally with the ensuing interpretations and explanations that sought to distort and expound on what was approved at the conference.”

The implication is that Annan was fully endorsing the post-Geneva Russian stand vis-à-vis the Western allies’ position.

Annan then moved on to talk about conditions on the ground in Syria and about the UN observer mission, dwelling on the tragic situation in some areas and thus the urgency of implementing his initiative’s key point – namely, the cessation of violence.

Assad was considerate and totally receptive, offering a brief recap of his guest’s mission since it went into force on April 12. He recounted how the (government’s) armed forces complied with the ceasefire for 24 hours until the insurgents, as attested in the UN observers’ reports, breached it.

During Assad’s recap, Gen. Mood was seen nodding his head approvingly more than once.

Annan took stock of Assad’s words, saying there was every reason to renew the drive for a ceasefire – particularly that the explosive situation in Syria risked spilling over to other countries. He specifically mentioned a likely spillover to Lebanon.

“So let’s try again, let’s agree a mechanism for a ceasefire starting with any one of the (Syrian) hotspots. We can then duplicate it in another,” Annan suggested.

Once again, Assad proved fully amenable before asking his guests: “We are a state, government and official authority, which means when we give you our word on a ceasefire we become accountable to you. But who will you be negotiating with on the other side?”

At this point, Annan began answering together with Gen. Mood.

The pair explained that UN observers were able in the course of their mission to make a semi-comprehensive appraisal of the armed groups.

Annan and Mood said, “We at least got to know the major groups. We got to know their chiefs. True, they don’t have a unified command or a clear command structure. Their armed chaos is massive. But we got to know their key figures. That’s why we believe we can work and proceed with them step by step.”

Again, it was clear both men now describe regime opponents as “the armed opposition.”

Annan was reminded at this point how armed insurgents foiled earlier ceasefire attempts, chiefly in Homs.

“Not long ago,” Annan was told, “ your observers witnessed how some armed elements tried leaving Homs’ al-Khalidiya neighborhood to hand in their weapons and surrender. Other rebels stopped them from this. Your observers also saw first-hand how armed insurgents frustrated attempts to evacuate some citizens trapped in Homs’ Dayyan and Hamidiya neighborhoods.”

Griffith corroborated this as an eyewitness himself.

The UN delegates did not dispute their host’s remarks. But Annan went on to state: “Nevertheless, the situation being what it is, let’s try again. Our observers would reach an agreement with the armed groups in the area where we choose to start. At the same time, we would ask for a goodwill gesture on your part in the chosen area. The gesture would see you observe a unilateral ceasefire in the designated area, of say four hours, pending the mutual ceasefire’s entry into force.”

Here, Annan was reminded that the ceasefire provision in his six-point plan was contingent on the cessation of the funding of, and smuggling of arms to, the opposition.

The UN envoy listened carefully for a few seconds until he was asked bluntly: “What do you think of U.S. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton’s talks two days ago about the prospects of a ‘catastrophic assault’ on government forces by the armed groups? Is that consistent with your (troubleshooting) mission?”

Annan paused for a few seconds before replying, “No, of course not. This is dangerous talk. But let’s try, let’s try applying this (phased ceasefire) approach step by step.”

As regards a timetable for this process, both sides exchanged various proposals and views before settling on a three-month timeline to see it through, beginning with the execution of the first step. Concomitantly, the two sides would issue a joint progress report every fortnight.

Annan then moved on to the matter of political dialogue between the government and the opposition in a tone vacillating between realism and skepticism.

The UN envoy asked Assad, “Should we make progress on the security front, would you be able to name your representative for the negotiations with the opposition – a sort of liaison officer to see through the second chapter of the UN mission?”

Dr. Ali Haidar

Assad smiled and replied instantaneously: “Before you even asked, and since formation of the current government, we decided on the person to be in charge of this matter. He is our minister of state for national reconciliation affairs, Dr. Ali Haidar.”

When Annan wanted to know more about Dr. Haidar, Assad explained the reasons for his selection, saying: “One, because he is not from the loyalist camp. Two, he is effectively from the opposition and heads a credible opposition party. Three, he was injured during the events and his son was killed by armed rebels. But he was able to overcome all this and accept the job of working for a genuine national reconciliation.”

Annan remarked, “But we would have preferred the nomination of someone closer to you -- someone who would be in direct contact with you to bring the dialogue process to completion.”

Assad smiled again, telling Annan: “Dr. Haidar and I shared adjoining desks throughout my university years specializing in ophthalmology. Do you want someone closer than that? Anyway, I think your greater difficulty will be on the other side, not on ours. Will you be able to get a name to represent the opposition?”

Annan couldn’t help chuckling before saying, “I am certainly aware of the difficulty. I saw them (the opposition groups) at their last conference in Cairo.”

The official meeting ended there. But while preparing to take leave, Annan asked his host, “How long you think can this crisis last?”

Assad: “So long as (…) funds them” -- (a possible reference to Qatar).

Annan was not taken aback by Assad’s answer but wondered: “You think they’re doing all the funding?”

Assad: “They’re doing a lot of things in the region. They believe they can lead the Arab world now and in future.”

Annan quipped, “But it seems they lack the number of citizens to do that.”

Syria Action Group leaves open Assad question

Geneva rabbit out of the magician's hat

Saturday's global conference on Syria agreed a UN-brokered peace plan for the country, but left open the key question of whether President Bashar al-Assad could be part of a transitional government.

Special envoy Kofi Annan read the final communiqué, which says the transitional government could include members of the current government.

He later told a press conference it would take "a year" for the transitional government to be put in place and that Assad's future "is their (the Syrian people's) business."

Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters the agreed plan does not require Assad's ouster.

However, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton insisted after the meeting that Assad would still have to go, saying "it is now incumbent on Russia and China to show Assad the writing on the wall."

Following is the full text of the final communiqué by the Action Group on Syria:

1. On 30 June 2012, the Secretaries-General of the United Nations and the League of Arab States, the Foreign Ministers of China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, Turkey, Iraq (Chair of the Summit of the League of Arab States), Kuwait (Chair of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the League of Arab States) and Qatar (Chair of the Arab Follow-up Committee on Syria of the League of Arab States), and the European Union High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy met at the United Nations Office at Geneva as the Action Group for Syria, chaired by the Joint Special Envoy of the United Nations and the League of Arab States for Syria.

2. Action Group members came together out of grave alarm at the situation in Syria. They strongly condemn the continued and escalating killing, destruction and human rights abuses. They are deeply concerned at the failure to protect civilians, the intensification of the violence, the potential for even deeper conflict in the country, and the regional dimensions of the problem. The unacceptable nature and magnitude of the crisis demands a common position and joint international action.

3. Action Group members are committed to the sovereignty, independence, national unity and territorial integrity of Syria. They are determined to work urgently and intensively to bring about an end to the violence and human rights abuses and the launch of a Syrian-led political process leading to a transition that meets the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people and enables them independently and democratically to determine their own future.

4. To secure these common objectives, the Action Group members (i) identified steps and measures by the parties to secure full implementation of the six-point plan and Security Council resolutions 2042 and 2043, including an immediate cessation of violence in all its forms; (ii) agreed on guidelines and principles for a political transition that meets the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people; and (iii) agreed on actions they would take to implement the above in support of the Joint Special Envoy’s efforts to facilitate a Syrian-led political process. They are convinced that this can encourage and support progress on the ground and will help to facilitate and support a Syrian-led transition.

Identified steps and measures by the parties to secure full implementation of the six-point plan and Security Council resolutions 2042 and 2043, including an immediate cessation of violence in all its forms

5. The parties must fully implement the six-point plan and Security Council resolutions 2042 and 2043. To this end:

A -- All parties must re-commit to a sustained cessation of armed violence in all its forms and implementation of the six-point plan immediately and without waiting for the actions of others. The government and armed opposition groups must cooperate with UNSMIS with a view to furthering the implementation of the above in accordance with its mandate.

B -- A cessation of armed violence must be sustained with immediate, credible and visible actions by the Government of Syria to implement the other items of the six-point plan including:

a -- Intensification of the pace and scale of release of arbitrarily detained persons, including especially vulnerable categories of persons, and persons involved in peaceful political activities; provision without delay through appropriate channels of a list of all places in which such persons are being detained; the immediate organization of access to such locations; and the provision through appropriate channels of prompt responses to all written requests for information, access or release regarding such persons; 

b -- Ensuring freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists and a non-discriminatory visa policy for them; 

c -- Respecting freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefully as legally guaranteed.

C -- In all circumstances, all parties must show full respect for UNSMIS’ safety and security and fully cooperate with and facilitate the Mission in all respects.

D -- In all circumstances, the Government must allow immediate and full humanitarian access to humanitarian organizations to all areas affected by the fighting. The Government and all parties must enable the evacuation of the wounded, and all civilians who wish to leave to do so. All parties must fully adhere to their obligations under international law, including in relation to the protection of civilians.

Agreed Principles and Guidelines for a Syrian-led transition

6. Action Group members agreed on the following ‘Principles and Guidelines on a Syrian-led transition’:

Any political settlement must deliver to the people of Syria a transition that:

• Offers a perspective for the future that can be shared by all in Syria;

• Establishes clear steps according to a firm timetable towards the realization of that perspective;

• Can be implemented in a climate of safety for all, stability and calm;

• Is reached rapidly without further bloodshed and violence and is credible.

I. Perspective for the Future 

The aspirations of the people of Syria have been clearly expressed by the wide range of Syrians consulted. There is an overwhelming wish for a state that:

• Is genuinely democratic and pluralistic, giving space to established and newly emerging political actors to compete fairly and equally in elections. This also means that the commitment to multiparty democracy must be a lasting one, going beyond an initial round of elections.

• Complies with international standards on human rights, the independence of the judiciary, accountability of those in government and the rule of law. It is not enough just to enunciate such a commitment. There must be mechanisms available to the people to ensure that these commitments are kept by those in authority.

• Offers equal opportunities and chances for all. There is no room for sectarianism or discrimination on ethnic, religious, linguistic or any other grounds. Numerically smaller communities must be assured that their rights will be respected.

II. Clear Steps in the Transition

The conflict in Syria will only end when all sides are assured that there is a peaceful way towards a common future for all in Syria. It is therefore essential that any settlement provides for clear and irreversible steps in the transition according to a fixed time frame. The key steps in any transition include:

• The establishment of a transitional governing body, which can establish a neutral environment in which the transition can take place. That means that the transitional governing body would exercise full executive powers. It could include members of the present government and the opposition and other groups and shall be formed on the basis of mutual consent.

• It is for the Syrian people to determine the future of the country. All groups and segments of society in Syria must be enabled to participate in a National Dialogue process. That process must not only be inclusive, it must also be meaningful—that is to say, its key outcomes must be implemented.

• On this basis, there can be a review of the constitutional order and the legal system. The result of constitutional drafting would be subject to popular approval.

• Once the new constitutional order is established, it is necessary to prepare for and conduct free and fair multiparty elections for the new institutions and offices that have been established.

• Women must be fully represented in all aspects of the transition.

III. Safety, stability and calm

Any transition involves change. However, it is essential to ensure that the transition can be implemented in a way that assures the safety of all in an atmosphere of stability and calm. This requires:

• Consolidation of full calm and stability. All parties must cooperate with the transitional governing body in ensuring the permanent cessation of violence. This includes completion of withdrawals and addressing the issue of the disarming, demobilization and reintegration of armed groups.

• Effective steps to ensure that vulnerable groups are protected and immediate action is taken to address humanitarian issues in areas of need. It is also necessary to ensure that the release of the detained is completed rapidly.

• Continuity of governmental institutions and qualified staff. The public services must be preserved or restored. This includes the military forces and security services. However, all governmental institutions, including the intelligence services, have to perform according to human rights and professional standards and operate under a top leadership that inspires public confidence, under the control of the transitional governing body.

• Commitment to Accountability and National Reconciliation. Accountability for acts committed during the present conflict must be addressed. There also needs to be a comprehensive package for transitional justice, including compensation or rehabilitation for victims of the present conflict, steps towards national reconciliation and forgiveness.

IV. Rapid steps to come to a Credible Political Agreement

It is for the people of Syria to come to a political agreement, but time is running out. It is clear that:

• The sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Syria must be respected.

• The conflict must be resolved through peaceful dialogue and negotiation alone. Conditions conducive to a political settlement must now be put in place.

• There must be an end to bloodshed. All parties must re-commit themselves credibly to the six-point plan. This must include a cessation of armed violence in all its forms and immediate, credible and visible actions to implement items 2-6 of the six-point plan.

• All parties must now engage genuinely with the Joint Special Envoy. The parties must be prepared to put forward effective interlocutors to work expeditiously towards a Syrian-led settlement that meets the legitimate aspirations of the people. The process must be fully inclusive to ensure that the views of all segments of Syrian society are heard in shaping the political settlement for the transition. The organized international community, including the members of the Action Group stands ready to offer significant support for the implementation of an agreement reached by the parties. This may include an international assistance presence under a United Nations Mandate if requested. Significant funds will be available to support reconstruction and rehabilitation.

Agreed actions Group members will take to implement the above in support of the Joint Special Envoy’s efforts to facilitate a Syrian-led political process

7. Action Group members will engage as appropriate, and apply joint and sustained pressure on, the parties in Syria to take the steps and measures outlined in paragraph 5.

8. Action Group members are opposed to any further militarization of the conflict.

9. Action Group members underscore to the Government of Syria the importance of the appointment of an effective empowered interlocutor, when requested by the Joint Special Envoy to do so, to work on the basis of the six-point plan and this communiqué.

10. Action Group members urge the opposition to increase cohesion and be in a position to ensure effective representative interlocutors to work on the basis of the six- point plan and this communiqué.

11. Action Group members will give full support to the Joint Special Envoy and his team as they immediately engage the Government and opposition, and consult widely with Syrian society, as well as other international actors, to further develop the way forward.

12. Action Group members would welcome the Joint Special Envoy’s further convening of a meeting of the Action Group should he deem it necessary to review the concrete progress taken on all points agreed in this communiqué, and to determine what further and additional steps and actions are needed from the Action Group to address the crisis. The Joint Special Envoy will also keep the United Nations and the League of Arab States informed.

Syria bazaar: Yemen scenario or Kosovo option?

Multilateral talks on Special Envoy Kofi Annan's Syrian mediation plan should seek to secure a ceasefire but not determine in advance the shape of a possible national unity government, Russia said today.

“The meeting in Geneva was intended to support Kofi Annan's plan and it must set the conditions for the end of violence and the start of an all-Syrian national dialogue, and not predetermine the contents of this dialogue,” Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told a briefing.

Lavrov is expected to discuss Annan’s proposal with the other four permanent UN Security Council members and key regional players in Geneva on Saturday.

Speaking in Moscow, Lavrov said the Annan plan was not, however, a final document and he expressed dismay that it had been leaked to the media ahead of the Geneva talks.

Earlier in the day, Bloomberg quoted three UN diplomats as saying Russia has endorsed Annan’s detailed roadmap for a political transition in Syria, a sign that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost the support of a key ally.

Persuading Assad to step aside and forming a transitional government to pave the way for elections will be at the core of the Geneva meeting, the officials said. All three asked not to be identified by Bloomberg because the talks are private.

Annan earlier this week gave the parties to the talks a few days to respond to a set of recommendations entitled “On Guidelines and Principles of a Syrian-led transition.” By late on June 26, the Russians had accepted the paper in full, including language that spells out Assad’s departure, according to the three officials, who all were informed of the decision.

The Annan document, which was reviewed by Bloomberg News, says a transitional government may include members of Assad’s government and opposition and other groups, although not “those whose continued presence and participation would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation.”

Speaking in Helsinki on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said she had been in regular contact with Annan over his transition plan.

She did not make public details of his proposal, but noted: “I’ve been in close consultation with special envoy Kofi Annan about the prospects for a meeting that would focus on a roadmap for political transition in Syria.”

Annan “has developed his own very concrete roadmap for political transition, he has been circulating it for comments and when I spoke to him yesterday I conveyed our support for the plan that he has put forward,” said Clinton.

“We think it embodies the principles needed for any political transition in Syria that could lead to a peaceful, democratic and representative outcome reflecting the will of the Syrian people,” she added.

Yemen or Kosovo

Editorially, Lebanese political analyst Abdelwahhab Badrakhan, writing for the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, says Annan’s roadmap for political transition in Syria leaves Damascus choosing between “the Yemen scenario and the Kosovo option.”

The Yemen scenario would nudge Assad out of office as happened to Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The Kosovo option would see the Syrian regime forcibly evicted by joint internal and international military action. Where the regime is concerned, it’s a choice between the devil and the deep blue sea.

To explain the current state of play, Badrakhan starts with a metaphor, writing:

After lip-reading the televised remarks of US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, and observing their body language at the recent G20 summit, a Damascus denizen figured:

The American asks the Russian: How much for your share in the partnership (with the Syrian regime)?

The Russian: A million dollars.

The American: Too much.

The Russian: I’ve been building the partnership for 50 years. I invested a lot in it.

The American: I’ll give you $100,000 for your share and keep you as company chairman.

The Russian: Too little… I might not want to sell after all.

The American: Reconsider and better take the offer. In two months you could be pushed out and left with nothing.

In essence, Badrakhan continues, the elements of caricature in this hypothetical dialogue also sums up the regime’s current circumstances. “The regime was urged to end its crackdown, to lead the political reform and to stop the killings. The Arab League intervened to help it cease the violence and open a dialogue with the opposition. When none of this worked, a joint UN-Arab intercession followed. But the regime kept piling its failures and moving from stupidity to arrogance, from murders to massacres, and from shabiha to scorched earth and ethnic cleansing policies – all the time thinking it would get away with its war crimes.

“Having dissipated all chances of an internal political solution, a peaceful transition and a safe way out, the regime left the international community no alternative but to oversee its exit.”

Badrakhan believes the regime is unfit and can’t be trusted to play a role in Syria’s future.

“Endorsement of Annan’s roadmap for political transition in Syria at Saturday’s Geneva meeting would mark the start of an international entente on a political solution for Syria on terms the regime invariably sought to evade and sidestep.

“Even Russia and Iran realize the regime must pay the price for getting a solution going. Whereas the regime could have sacrificed a few heads at the onset of the crisis, it is now bound to part with its own.”

Despite its apprehensions, the opposition too would have to accommodate the international entente and accept the roadmap once adopted. That would be the only way to put all the pieces of the jigsaw together since “the regime is unable to prevail despite its arsenal and the uprising is incapable of bringing down the regime although it crippled it.”

In any case, says Badrakhan, all this is hypothetical. “The proposed roadmap could bear fruit quickly, or it could drag on due to regime intransigence or Russian-Chinese-Iranian considerations and ambitions. But the solution’s cornerstone is to see the last of the head of the regime and its bunch of murderers.

“The roadmap’s flaw is that it would seek to build an alternative regime from disparate components. Its forte is a burgeoning American-Russian understanding. What is certain is that its success or failure would determine the nature of international intervention needed in either case: the Yemen template if it succeeded or the Kosovo scenario if it failed.”

Kofi Annan’s Syria "Action Group” chokes

Opposition leader Burhan Ghalioun calls on rebels in northern Syria (Photos credit)    

Russia and Special Envoy Kofi Annan’s pet idea of an international meeting on Syria in Geneva on Saturday remains up in the air at this writing.

The proposal is not flying yet because of disagreements over composition of the “contact-cum-action group” for Syria, its agenda and the meeting’s proposed June 30 date.

Russia and Annan want Iran at the table alongside other global and regional players in Syria.

The U.S. doesn’t “think that Iran has a place at the table” because it is “aiding and abetting the Assad regime on the ground in the murdering of its own people,” State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said Tuesday at a press briefing in Washington. She said Washington and Annan “continue to work on what this conference might look like and how, if we go forward with it, whether it – if it’s at the end of the week or sometime thereafter, we can ensure that it truly makes progress in supporting the Annan plan and specifically in supporting a peaceful democratic transition in Syria.”

The U.S. and Joint Special Envoy Annan want the group to commit to endorse a peaceful democratic transition in Syria.

Russia has opposed the idea that other countries dictate a political transition, insisting it is a decision for the Syrians themselves.

CNN’s Jill Dougherty says Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called Annan from her plane en route to a three-nation tour of Finland, Latvia and Russia. Annan is continuing his consultations, a senior State Department official told reporters aboard the plane.

"For us, the key thing is that the participants in the meeting agree on the way forward including political transition in Syria. I think if Kofi Annan can get the proposed participants to agree on such a plan for political transition, then there will be a meeting. But that's what we need to find out before we go to any meeting," the official said.

"If other proposed participants agree to that, then the secretary will go to the meeting and we'll try to advance it in that way," the official added. "What it can't be is just another round of dialogue for dialogue's sake with the regime. And that's our view. And I think, frankly, it's the view of a very large number of members of the international community."

While in St. Petersburg this week, Clinton is expected to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the topic of Syria will be on their agenda, the official said.

Annan's deputy, Nasser al-Kidwa, told the UN Security Council behind closed doors that Annan is nearing a decision on whether or not to host the meeting in Geneva.

"We are awaiting clarity today on whether there is sufficient substantive agreement as well as consensus on the scope of participation before the envoy decides whether the meeting should proceed on the 30th as planned," al-Kidwa told the 15-nation council, according to a copy of his statement quoted by Colum Lynch on Turtle Bay.

Al-Kidwa outlined the basic elements of the plan to the full council in a closed-door meeting Tuesday. He said it would include agreement on "guidelines and principles for a political transition that meets the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people," read a copy of his confidential statement, according to Lynch.

Leading Lebanese political analyst Sarkis Naoum, writing for the Beirut daily an-Nahar on Tuesday, sees little chance of Iran finding its way to the “contact-cum-action group” table unless it decides to give the nod to a political transition. One conceivable transition would involve Assad stepping aside and empowering his vice president, Farouk al-Sharaa, to head a tripartite coalition government. The said government would prepare for free and democratic elections. The regime would choose one-third of its members, another third would represent the home-based opposition while the overseas opposition would name the last third.