Syrian National Council shoots down Geneva-2

Top: "Solution in The Hague, not Geneva." Above: Russia, U.S., Iran and Syrian regime rule the roost in Geneva

The Syrian National Council (SNC), the main component of Syria’s opposition umbrella organization known as the Syrian National Coalition, reaffirmed yesterday it will not attend the planned Geneva-2 peace conference.

The statement reiterates an earlier announcement by SNC president George Sabra in October that the group had taken a “firm decision” not to attend the talks.

Sabra had also said the SNC would withdraw from the National Coalition if it decided to attend.

The group has long insisted it refuses to negotiate until President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime exits power.

Sabra’s SNC said in a statement posted in Arabic on its Facebook page:

The SNC’s General Secretariat met in the city of Istanbul throughout January 3 and 4, 2014, to discuss issues of concern to the Syrian Revolution as well as the Syria situation in general.

On its agenda was a set of important matters awaiting fitting decisions.

The General Secretariat heard reports about the internal situation on the ground and its evolution in light of the surrounding circumstances.

The international and regional situation and its fallouts on the Revolution’s course were appraised as well.

In addition, the General Secretariat took stock of the report by the SNC’s Executive Office on its international activities and contacts during the previous phase and the ensuing assessments of the contacts.

In light of the said givens, and regarding attendance of the Geneva-2 conference, the General Secretariat discussed the matter from all angles.

And after weighing up the political, military and humanitarian relief situation and hearing special and detailed reports about the regional and international political visits and gatherings, it emerged that all the efforts exerted by the Opposition (i.e. both the Syrian National Council and the Syrian National Coalition) to overcome the hurdles blocking convocation of the conference failed to yield positive results because the regime and its allies did not fully commit to the spirit and provisions of Geneva-1 and the regime failed to implement any of them.

On the contrary, they added a new task to Geneva-2, which they dubbed “Fighting Terrorism” -- with the regime persisting in its use of such war tactics as partial sieges, starvation, random killings by barrel-bomb attacks and the occupation of Syrian lands by sectarian militias summoned by the regime from beyond the border without a reaction from Arab or international societies.

In the end, the SNC’s General Secretariat did not find any realistic development or clear and specific agenda ensuring the conference’s success in achieving the Syrian Revolution’s objectives, which would have it revise its earlier decision.

Hence, it decided to reiterate and reaffirm its previous decision to stay away from the Geneva-2 conference under the present conditions…

Burhan Ghalioun shames Syria Coalition

Burhan Ghalioun, the first elected chairman of the Syrian National Council (SNC), a dominant component of the umbrella Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC), is dismayed by the latter’s failure to expand its membership and elect a new leadership after seven days of meetings in Istanbul.

Overnight, he posted this critique of the Coalition in Arabic on his Facebook page:

What happened in the week of 23-28 May in Istanbul is a manifest tragedy that has shamed the Coalition and defamed the Revolution.

The Coalition’s job is to mobilize political, relief and military aid for the Revolution and the blighted population. This means bringing together the largest number and assortment of forces supportive of the Revolution, whether they are Syrian or allied forces that can get behind it.

The Coalition is not a parliament meant to represent those at home or overseas.

What cripples the Coalition to date is the tug-of-war between groups and alliances seeking to control it by trying to secure a bigger share of representation. The end result was that the Coalition spent all its time bickering over seats, positions and illusory presidencies.

This kind of squabbling has led to developments that transformed the Coalition.

Instead of being a tool to hem in opposition forces, the Coalition turned into a hotbed of tension driving them away. Instead of being a tool to drum up support and build Arab and international alliances, it came to be a means to tear apart these alliances and strain relations amongst countries endorsing us and wasting their endorsement.

In such a situation, independents like ourselves who do not belong to any rival parties and blocs or brawl to improve their groups’ positions, and have no concern other than to serve the national cause, sit on the sidelines. They are left with no task other than to reconcile feuding blocs and groups or watch them faceoff.

Our work in the Coalition thus becomes contrary to what is expected of us.

Instead of mustering support, we have come to spend most of our time and resources trying to put the Coalition house in order, solve disputes and deflate tensions.

We are left with no time to address the core issue that brought us together in the first place.

This state of affairs is unbefitting for us and should not go on in any way.

It is unlikely or unacceptable for the Coalition’s Executive and General Assembly sessions to remain open-ended for the sole purpose of co-opting new members. This, when the Coalition needs to be working day and night to meet the military, relief and political challenges facing the Revolution and the Opposition.

The starting point in any reform is to ban and bury power struggles in the Coalition.

The sine qua non for this is to disallow blocs and not to submit to, or go along with, their logic.

Instead, Coalition members would become evenly matched as individuals representing themselves. They would vote according to their conscience, thus shutting out any demand based on the logic of quotas, power balance adjustments or rat races.

Instead of the Coalition sanctifying apportionments, quotas and bloc chieftains massing followers, the Coalition should draw on revolutionaries and activists from all revolutionary and opposition forces capable of fulfilling the Coalition’s obligations.

Those obligations are to defend the Revolution’s principles and whip up all manner of support from all around so as to fulfill the task at hand.

Cement and wheat at the Doha summit

By Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia’s analyst, author and kingpin of the impending Al Arab TV news channel writing today for pan-Arab al-Hayat

Obviously, the Doha summit did not discuss cement price rises or production shortages in the Arab world.

Nor did it dwell on the Arabs’ growing demand for wheat that their vast arable lands -- including the water-rich ones -- fail to meet.

The summit, as usual, considered the pan-Arab nation’s “fateful issues at this critical juncture,” chiefly the current Syria crisis.

It would have been useful if someone had wondered out loud, “Who will rebuild Syria?

“Can the output of Arab cement factories meet demand?

“And how can we make available tons of wheat to feed the hungry mouths in the currently critical political turmoil?”

Therein lies the importance of discussing the subject of cement and wheat in the Arab world.

It might sound odd to ask, “Who will build the New Syria?” when the Arabs have yet to find a way of stopping the destruction of Old Syria and the killings in it.

Equally odd is to ask, “Who will provide the daily 250 million bread loafs Egyptians need under their Second Republic when their politicians keep quarrelling over the Attorney General’s legitimacy?”

We better wise up, harden our hearts, ponder unemotionally and set up committees to address these issues.

A group of about 45 Syrians representing all hues of the Syrian opposition, including former officials who deserted the regime, last year set up “The Day After” workshop in Berlin in association with two institutes – one German (SWP) and another American (USIP).

They did wonderful work in planning what to do in post-Assad Syria.

They outlined the roadmap to a peaceful transition to democracy, the rule of law and security, constitution making, economic recovery and reconstruction (see Syria and “The Day After” Project for full details).

But of course “The Day After” workshop did not discuss the issue of cement, of which Old Syria produced not more than six million tons annually.

Only God knows how many months it would take Syria’s cement plants to resume production.

The Arab world’s top cement producer is Egypt, with an annual output of 48 million tons.

Saudi Arabia comes next with 42 million tons a year.

Although both countries try to expand their respective production capacities, their cement prices keep cropping up because of increasing demand for housing units in each.

Most probably local demand for Saudi cement will heat up after the Kingdom issued final regulations on real estate financing, leasing and the supervision of financial companies as it tries to ease a housing shortage by opening up its mortgage market and enacting the first home-loans law.

So who will supply cement for the Syrians if the Saudis ban exporting their cement and the Egyptians need every bit of theirs? And who will finance Syria’s reconstruction in the first place?

Syria, after all, is unlike Libya, which was also ravaged by war. But oil-rich Libya has the cash. Syria’s oil production is wanting, save for 300,000 barrels per day, part of which is exported with the revenue going to the coffers of President Bashar al-Assad and his relatives.

Moreover, destruction in Libya pales in comparison to Syria’s devastation.

Will Turkish and Saudi concerns rush to invest in the New Syria, or will the huge offshore funds held by Syrians solve the problem?

And before wondering about Syria’s prospective cement suppliers, Syrians need much time to rebuild their state institutions, draft a constitution and organize elections.

Wheat is another Arab collective concern.

Saudi Arabia, for instance, will scrap wheat growing in 2015 after absurd consumption exhausted its future generations’ non-renewable groundwater resources.

The Kingdom does not need more than three million tons of wheat a year and has all the cash to import it from Russia or Australia. But Egypt produces only half of its annual consumption of 19 million tons at a time when its net foreign currency reserves are down to $13.5 billion, barely enough to cover three months of its imports of essential goods and oil.

Also, unlike Saudi Arabia, Egypt did not build grain silos, which means storage costs are added on to its wheat prices.

Theoretically, the solution for all Arabs is in their fertile lands in Iraq, Syria, Sudan and Algeria.

Politics, however, prompted Saudi Arabia to try leasing Russian farmland to grow wheat through private companies it controls. The kingdom overlooked Algeria, whose military are far from being amenable to negotiations.

After its revolution, Egypt discovered Sudan to its south, where it plans cultivating about one million feddan (or 420,000 hectares) in the long term, once its politicians stop squabbling over the country’s Attorney General and other petty issues.

I used the metaphor of “cement and wheat” to highlight the interconnection of Arabs. Despite borders keeping us apart, our disparate customs duties, one country like Saudi Arabia supporting the cement industry and another like Egypt choosing not to, the Saudis having the experience and money to grow wheat and the Sudanese having the land, water and workforce… we are all prone to be affected by economic changes elsewhere.

The reference is chiefly to changes affecting essential commodities, such as iron, cement, wheat and fertilizers – all of which have internationally-quoted prices.

We ought to accelerate Arab economic unity plans, bring down trade barriers and focus on the economy and quality of life, which are the mainstays of the Arab Spring.

Had we helped Egypt tackle the economy before plunging into politics head on, Egypt would not have been suffocating in a seemingly open-ended political crisis.

Egypt could have done without its ridiculous cycle of protests and counter-protests, charges and counter-charges, and blows and counter-blows – all leading to the erosion of all human values, including the Egyptian citizen’s dignity.

Syria, where the revolution has yet to triumph, is also in the throes of accusations and counter-accusations with the media already evoking the strife in Egypt in order to guard against a replay of the Muslim Brotherhood’s role in the Syrian revolution.

Better wait for the Syrian revolution to prevail before taking on the Muslim Brotherhood.

Any cause for optimism in all this?

Yes, when “cement and wheat” top the Arab politician’s priorities.

Champ Rania, nurse Asma and sniper Umm Jaafar

Chess champion and dentist Rania Abassi

The fate and whereabouts of Syrian dentist and women’s chess champion for many years, Dr. Rania Abassi, her husband and their six children remains unknown after security services took them from their Damascus home last week.

Men believed to belong to the military security branch took Rania’s husband, Aburrahman el-Yassin (Abu Ahmad), from home after ransacking it on March 9.

They returned two days later, March 11, and picked up Rania and the couple’s six children: Dima (14), Intissar (11), Najah (9), Wala’ (8), Ahmad (4) and baby daughter Layan (12 months).

Nothing has been heard of the family since.

Dr. Rania, who won national, Arab and Mediterranean chess championships over the years, is still ranked Syria’s number one woman chess player by the World Chess Federation.

Ghada Ouwais interviewing Asma in Aleppo

Aljazeera TV anchorwoman Ghada Owais is currently in Aleppo doing a series of video features on Syria’s two years of revolt. Last night’s focused on what two young women are doing to help the rebels.

One -- speaking as “Asma”  -- is a volunteer nurse in a makeshift field hospital in a rebel held area of Aleppo.

Owais: Having read Arts at university, why choose nursing?

Asma: We were ready to give our lives for the revolution from day one. When the Free Syrian Army entered Aleppo, most doctors fled. The medical cadres also left. We had to fill in for them, and we did.

Owais: Do you have what you need here to treat patients and the wounded?

Asma: No.

Owais: You’re short of what?

Asma: Everything – equipment, medicines, even bandages. Everything.

Owais: Are you scared?

Asma: No. I am not scared. We fear for the country only…

Sniper Umm Jaafar and husband Mahmoud

After taking leave from the field hospital, Owais says Aljazeera reporter Tamer al-Miss’hal, who is helping her on the Aleppo mission, will take over to introduce “Umm Jaafar.”

Walking viewers through narrow Aleppo alleyways, Tamer says, “The last word on this battlefront is for snipers. Each side tries to prevent the other side’s advance by positioning snipers on rooftops. Here is one of them – a special one. Her name is Noor, but she prefers to be called Umm Jaafar. She has changed.  After owning and running a beauty salon in Aleppo, she is now a seasoned sniper.”

Umm Jaafar: Bashar forced this on us. I was among his supporters until he started the massacres and set about killing children and dumping bodies in the river.”

An incident on an Aleppo street led to her wedding to Mahmoud seven months ago.

Shrapnel from a tank shell outside her home hit Mahmoud. She helped him. They fell in love. They’ve been husband and wife and fighting side by side for seven months.

Tamer: But who’s the boss?

Mahmoud: In the battalion, she is one of the fighters.

Umm Jaafar: You can say that at home I command a brigade while he commands a battalion! 

Kerry told to sit with Assad first

From top clockwise: The Kerrys and Assads at Naranj restaurant in Damascus in 2009 and Kerry with Lavrov and Moaz 

A Syrian journalist today tells U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry to first sit with his chum Bashar al-Assad to test the water before asking the Syrian opposition to come to the table to negotiate a transition.

Kerry told reporters Tuesday, “The world wants to stop the killing (in Syria). And we want to be able to see Assad and the Syrian opposition come to the table for the creation of a transitional government according to the framework that was created in Geneva, the Geneva Protocol, which requires mutual consent on both sides to the formation of that transitional government. That’s what we’re pushing for…” (See yesterday’s post, “Big Powers seeking table partners for Moaz”)

His remarks shocked much of the regional press.

Syria’s state-run media senses an American volte-face in Assad’s favor. Champress, for instance, declares ecstatically, “American body blow to the Turkish-Gulfite alliance: Kerry wants President Assad and the opposition to sit at the negotiation table.”

Likewise, Lebanese Hezbollah’s news portal, al-Manar, which reproduces the leader comment of pan-Arab daily al-Quds al-Arabi titled, “America retracts the call on Assad to step down.”

The Beirut daily al-Akhbar, which speaks for both Assad and Hezbollah, shouts from the rooftops, “Washington follows Moscow: A solution with Assad staying put.”

On the other side of the political divide, the Saudi newspaper of records Asharq Alawsat sounds downbeat, with its front-page banner announcing, “American position veers towards a ‘dialogue’ between the opposition and Assad.”

Editorially, eminent Syrian author and journalist Ghassan al-Mufleh writes in an op-ed for Elaph that Kerry – not the opposition -- should be the one to open the discourse with Assad.

Mufleh’s argument:

The U.S. secretary of state’s personal connection with the Assad family goes back more than two decades. It strengthened after the Syrian army’s exit from Lebanon in 2005.

Sen. Kerry was the main driving force in talks (1) to extricate the Assad clique from the clutches of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) mandated to identify and try those responsible for the assassination of Rafik Hariri, and (2) to then rehabilitate the clique.

I wrote about this at the time.

And when John Kerry was first nominated to the position of secretary of state, I wrote that the central reason for handing him the job is his familiarity with the Syria File and his personal relationship with the Assad clique. I also warned against the clique’s international exoneration as it still enjoyed a measure of international cover.

I also cited the Sudanese example, and how Omar al-Bashir is walking free after the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest on charges of crimes against humanity. The price for his reprieve was the creation of the Republic of South Sudan and the South Sudan’s Chinese oil puzzle.

John Kerry did not take long to avow his wish to tackle the Syria File as the principal representative of the Israel-condoned Assad clique.

Incidentally, Kerry is also in favor of rehabilitating the Iranian regime and preserving its Mullahs at the helm. The Iranian opposition can thus expect to come under U.S. pressure as well.

The aforesaid is in keeping with the strategy of President Barack Obama’s inner circle. (Remember how the White House vetoed last year’s plan -- backed by Panetta-Dempsey-Clinton-Petraeus -- to arm carefully vetted Syrian rebels).

Bypassing the Obama-Kerry plan taking shape is the responsibility of the Syrian opposition and revolutionary forces.

But not to sound totally negative, the U.S. secretary of state can head to Damascus for a dialogue with the Assad clique before implicating the Syrian opposition in the game of the clique’s rehabilitation.

The follow-on would be a UN Security Council resolution, based on the Geneva framework, ordering the Assad clique to stop the killings. The opposition can follow suit. If the U.S. and Russia are in tune, what can prevent the UN Security Council passing a resolution calling for dialogue and a peaceful political transition following the cessation of violence as demanded in Geneva?”

Let Kerry kickoff a firsthand dialogue.

Should he fail, he would bear sole responsibility for the step without the Syrian Revolution bearing its consequences.

Afghan ills in the Syrian revolution

By Jamal Khashoggi

The author is a leading Saudi media figure who served as media aide to Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud while he was ambassador to the United Kingdom and to the United States. He was named by Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Al Saud to head his upcoming AlArab TV news channel. Khashoggi wrote this think piece in Arabic for today’s edition of pan-Arab al-Hayat.

By Syrian artist Wissam Al Jazairy

Gloom regarding the Syria crisis is justified. Preparing for the worse is also warranted.

When international troubleshooter for Syria Lakhdar Brahimi chooses to forsake his main peacemaking task to visit refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, it means he has no idea what to do.

He wants to seem active until God wills the predestined.

Likewise, when Saudi Arabia stays away from the foreign ministers’ meeting of the regional quartet (composed of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran) that was proposed by Egypt to solve the Syria crisis, it means the kingdom has lost hope.

If the quartet’s objective is to change Iran’s stance, chances of this happening are nil.

Iran is in Bashar’s boat, even at the price of sinking with him.

If the quartet’s purpose is to find a solution to the Syria crisis, how can Iran deliver a humdinger that escaped the 100-nation Friends of Syria, the Arab League and the United Nations?

The mere existence of this quartet is cause for pessimism.

The Egyptians and Turks now know the quartet is doomed, not because Saudi Arabia opted out but because of Iran’s shenanigans.

For instance, the commander-in-chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said members of his elite force are in Syria to provide non-military assistance. He also said Iran won’t intervene militarily in Syria to help the regime.

An official Iranian spokesperson later denied the remarks, saying Tehran would not allow the so-called “axis of resistance” – of which Syria is an essential pillar – to fall.

Basically, you don’t know what the Iranians are denying or confirming.

They insolently announced in Cairo a Syria ceasefire. They made it conditional on cutting off assistance to the opposition and launching a dialogue leading to “reform and consolidation of democracy” in Syria.

So long as we are unto a long-lasting battle, it is worthwhile to draw some parallels between the situation in Syria and the Afghan jihad.

The situation in Syria and the Afghan jihad are becoming ever more comparable by the day.

The Syrians hate such a comparison for obvious reasons.

They dread the “Afghanization” of their country and their struggle.

Counting the 10 years of Afghan jihad against the Soviet occupation, another two years of fighting against the Kabul government left in place by the Soviets and the subsequent years of civil war until this day, you arrive at a total of 33 years of hardships.

The Syrian revolution is only one-and-a-half years old and there seems little hope of it ending soon.

Conflicts among militias can last years. We had a precedent in Lebanon.

We see the Free Syrian Army gaining control of the Salahuddin neighborhood in Aleppo, then losing it, then recapturing it.

That’s how militia wars go.

At the same time, the weight of militia numbers alarms backers, making them deny the militias indispensable weapons.  

For instance, the militias need man-portable air-defense systems or MANPADS to challenge the regime’s air power, which is killing far more civilians than rebels.

U.S. fears of weapons falling into the wrong hands, for instance, hampered delivery to the rebels of some 100 MANPADS contributed by Gulf countries.

The Americans want to see specific controls in place before the weapons get forwarded to the insurgents.

But putting such controls in place is impossible in a country where security has totally collapsed, which is the trademark of all armed revolutions.

Strategists turn naïve or dreamers on occasion. They overlook the merit of past experience. A look at their old files would show the Afghan jihad tribulations that are now manifest in Syria:

### Every attempt to unify the rebels will give rise to a new organization. Some members of the old Free Syrian Army would refuse to integrate with the new Syrian National Army, consequently undermining both organizations and their respective brigades. International backers would then be at a loss as to which of the two is a safe bet.

### Unlike the French, the Syrians can’t agree on a Charles de Gaulle. They are more like the Afghans if not worse. They all think they are leaders.

### Information from inside Syria is consistently contradictor and mostly exaggerated, especially on matters of money and the apportionment of arms.

### A media savvy group is not necessarily the more active on the ground. A group with more video footage on You Tube does not mean it is the strongest.

### Middlemen claiming to know the playing field well do know their contacts thoroughly. But they are totally ignorant of the rest. As a result, they would channel assistance to their contacts, bypassing those they don’t know. The donor country using the middleman is immediately accused of bias and of dividing rebel ranks, if not of conspiring against the revolution.

### The revolution is for honorable men and women and freedom lovers. But it is also an arena for opportunists, dealers, turncoats and even criminals.

### The idea of unifying rebel ranks inside Syria, though overly utopian, should be pursued, since opening a door halfway is better than keeping it shut. At a minimum, coordination would suffice and is achievable thanks to the (non-lethal) equipment (such as encrypted radios and satellite imagery) provided by the Americans and the French. The difficulty in unifying the rebels lies in their variegated provenance. Army defectors come from diverse units at various times. Civilians come from all walks of life and include students, laborers and farmers. Some are religious, others not. Some are politicized, others are not interested in politics, their sole aim being to get rid of the regime. It will always be difficult to group everyone under a single command and control center.

### Don’t believe whoever says the Muslim Brotherhood is the largest faction inside Syria. Don’t believe either whoever says the opposite. The Brotherhood’s political weight can only be known after free and transparent elections are held in Syria. But no state should withhold assistance to the Syrian revolution pending an answer to this $64,000 question.

### “One Address” (with which to coordinate with the Syrian revolution) won’t attract cash and assistance to all sides. Previous experience shows that creation of “One Address” is impossible.

The Syrian revolution has succeeded so far in shutting out al-Qaeda. Even the hard line Salafist groups funded by non-government Gulfites refused to be lured into expressing empathy for al-Qaeda.

At the same time, prolongation of the crisis is exasperating Syrians, as evidenced by their pelting of Brahimi’s motorcade with stones during his visit to a Syrian refugee camp.

After mulling over the regime’s brutality and the free world’s indifference, the Syrian people have come to equate diplomacy with procrastination.

The Syrian people are increasingly convinced that the world has let them down.

Their anger and the aforementioned Afghan ills could open the door to the sort of extremism that outside intelligence and military agencies are trying to forestall.

But their quest has made them reluctant to take action and supply weapons that would settle the battle. In a way, they are shunning something they created by their own hesitation and deferment.

Film backlash is a Syrian revolution spoiler

Reuters photo of a young Syrian refugee on the Turkish-Syrian border

Syria’s allies -- chiefly Iran and its Lebanese offshoot Hezbollah -- are still whipping up a global Muslim outcry against the U.S.-made amateur film insulting Islam.

The obscure movie that ridicules Prophet Muhammad (see No one’s innocent in the film ‘Innocence of Muslims’) has no Syria links. But the September 11 attack on the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi that killed Ambassador Chris Stevens and the resulting outbreak of anti-American protests in the Muslim world shored up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s political survival prospects.

Western media have since been parroting the Assad line that he is mostly facing al-Qaeda and Jihadists. The implication is they are staunchly anti-West in general and anti-American in particular.

K.P. Nayar, filing from Washington this week for Calcutta’s Telegraph, reports: “At a hurriedly arranged media teleconference by the U.S. State Department which wanted to put across its version of the events in Benghazi, the very first question was: ‘…I know Secretary (Hillary) Clinton said that this would not affect how the U.S. dealt with the Libyans, and that you would move forward. But certainly, it must make you start to think about any precipitous rush to support groups in any other countries such as Syria or the like because of the uncertainty of who is on the ground.’

“Three State Department officials participated in the teleconference, the ground rules for which prohibited reporters from identifying them. None of the three officials came forward to answer that question because the anti-U.S. backlash in Libya has added a new dimension to what will happen in Syria now.”

John Kerry, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who is tipped to be the next secretary of state if Barack Obama is reelected in November, said the violence in Libya “will certainly give pause, or should give pause, to people who are pressing for a kind of involvement (in Syria)...”

All this is music to the ears of Russia.

In a recent Web article quoted by Russia Today, the chair of the Russian parliamentary committee for foreign affairs, Aleksey Pushkov, wrote that such a scenario would be almost certain to take place if Assad were ousted: “Instead of the secular rational state we had in Syria under Assad, where all ethnic and religious groups lived in peace and accord, we will get a second Iraq.”

The Russian politician went on to argue that Russia had repeatedly warned Western states, who are blinded by “the narrowness of their minds” and political calculations, and are incapable of heeding such warnings.

There are no guarantees that whoever replaced Assad would not immediately turn their guns against the United States, even though Washington is actively aiding rebel forces, Pushkov said. He cited the current situation in Libya as an example, claiming Libyans showed no gratitude for America’s role in the overthrow of the Muammar Gaddafi regime.

Alarabiya TV news channel supremo Abdel Rahman al-Rashed notes today that Russia is clapping with glee after the Benghazi attack let out of the bottle “the genie of al-Qaeda in Libya, jihadists in Sinai and Salafists in Tunisia.” But he hopes press reports of Obama consequently reappraising U.S. policy vis-à-vis the Syrian revolution are unfounded.

In his think piece for the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, Rashed writes, “It’s obviously difficult for me to explain briefly the importance of winning the great powers’ support for the Syrian people and their revolution – actually, for any revolution. Without great powers’ support, Syrian revolutionary organizations could be branded terrorist. They could be banned in Turkey and Jordan. It would be impossible for them to raise funds and arms in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. In practice, they would end up like the armed Kurdish movements that have existed for decades, but remain outlawed and under siege.”

Rashed continues:

I concede, the Syrian revolution has no fewer problems than Libya’s. Future risks after regime change in Syria can’t be overlooked. But it would be ill-considered if Western states looked at Syria through the prism of their fears of radical fundamentalism.

Syria is not Egypt and Assad is not Hosni Mubarak. Failure of the Syrian revolution is more hazardous than its success because armed Islamist radicals would mushroom since they feed on government failures and chaos. Overpowered and demoralized insurgents would rally around them.

In a year of armed conflict, the opposition has broken the back of the regime and its institutions.

To re-establish his authority, Assad would have to come down harder on citizens, the neighboring countries and Western interests. Western states would ultimately have to revisit Syria and take him on. We had a precedent in Iraq, where allies broke the Saddam regime’s back in the 1991 war to liberate Kuwait then left Saddam wounded but standing. The allies had to return in 2003 to finish him off. The outcome is the chaos we have today as we watch the Iraqi regime being eaten alive by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Furthermore, bringing down Assad’s regime is more important for Syria, the region and most of the world than toppling Saddam or Gaddafi.

The Syrian regime is Iran’s cat’s-paw in the Arab region. It has been sponsoring terrorist groups in regional and Western states for 40 years.

There is abounding evidence linking al-Qaeda to both the Syrian and Iranian regimes. The former was an accomplice in most terrorist attacks mounted in Iraq over the past eight years. And I suspect it might eventually emerge that Assad’s regime, or its allies, orchestrated the attack by al-Qaeda and the like on the American consulate in Benghazi – especially that the outrage was timed to coincide with 9/11 in order to intimidate the U.S.

Lastly, I don’t know of any cause paralleling Palestine’s over the past half-century other than Syria’s. The scope and intensity of sympathy in the Arab street for the Syrian people is immeasurable because of the untold crimes committed against them.

This is what turned most Arabs against Iran and Russia. Arabs are also angry that the West continues to sit on the fence.

Syria: “We are witnessing the fall of humanity”

Malek Jandali

Malek Jandali is a Syrian composer and pianist considered to be among the most versatile and creative musicians in the Arab world.

He is the first Syrian and only Arab musician to arrange music based on the oldest music notation in the world, which was discovered in the Bronze Age city of Ugarit, Syria.

He has recently attracted widespread international attention for his strong stand against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

Martina Sabra met the artist in the country of his birth, Germany, where she interviewed him for Qantara.de. The Arabic word “qantara” means “bridge.” The Internet portal Qantara.de represents the concerted effort of the Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung (Federal Center for Political Education), Deutsche Welle, the Goethe Institut and the Institut für Auslandsbeziehungen (Institute for Foreign Cultural Relations) to promote dialogue with the Islamic world. The German Foreign Office funds the project.

Following are the Qs & As of the interview with Jandali as conducted by Martina Sabra, edited by Lewis Gropp and published yesterday by Qantara.de:

Mr. Jandali, you said you would bring something special with you to our interview?

Jandali: Yes. I have a piece of what’s known as a "shepshep" here – the front part of a small, colorful rubber slipper. This slipper belongs to a child who managed to escape from Syria to Turkey and survive in spite of heavy bombardments by the Syrian army. Some Syrian students brought it after visiting refugee camps in Turkey and gave it to me in Toronto. This rubber slipper was an item in a charity auction organized on the occasion of my concert in Offenbach, Germany. The audience donated thousands of Euros. This is the most expensive shoe I ever saw. It's not Gucci, it's not Armani -- it's freedom. Look at it. Isn't it great?

During the past two years you have given many successful concerts around the world, among others in London and at the Konzerthaus in Vienna. What was it like for you?

Jandali: I was born in Germany and went to Kindergarten here, so this was where my first introduction to music occurred. We moved to Syria when I was six. But until the age of 12, I used to come to Germany every summer, to the "Sommerschule" in Waldbröl, a small town not far from Bonn, and take piano lessons. Unfortunately, I lost touch with my teacher, Mrs. Schneider. So my last visit here dates back to the 1980s, almost 30 years ago.

 It is wonderful to be back. Germany is a beautiful country. The concert at the Capitol in Offenbach was a great way to meet the Germans and the Syrian community and support the Syrian children in their revolution for freedom.

From the age of six, you grew up in the city of Homs. How did you manage to study piano there, more than 30 years ago?

Jandali: Actually it was pretty challenging to find a piano teacher at the time, because there wasn’t a music school in Homs. But there was an excellent piano teacher at the Tchaikovsky conservatory in Damascus. I had to travel every Thursday from Homs to Damascus for two hours, take my piano lesson and come back by bus. Later I applied for studies abroad and I got a full scholarship for the U.S.

You grew up under the Baath regime and travelled between the US and Syria when the Baath regime was still stable. To what extent did you internalize the Baath ideology and how did you manage to rid yourself of it?

Jandali: To be honest, you're sitting in front of a professional liar. I lied every morning. I loved Bashar in the morning and I hated the system in the afternoon. They force you to say: I sacrifice my soul and my life to Assad.

Every morning at school. Then you go home, and your parents tell you that Assad is not good. This is schizophrenic, and it all happens when you are still a child.

After I came to the US, it took me a good 10 years to cleanse my soul, to be honest, to tell the truth and not lie.

Many famous Arab artists, like the Lebanese singer Fairouz or the Syrian singer Sabah Fakhri, have so far remained silent over the violence of the Assad regime. Why this silence, do you think?

Jandali: It's disgusting. This regime has applied a strategy to hijack minds, including the minds of artists. It has succeeded in withdrawing the humanity and freedom and the essence of feelings, of human feelings from people’s hearts. An artist who does not stand alongside the children of Syria at this moment in time is not a human being. I call them "the empty drums", since they are just drumming to the crimes of the dictator.

Malek Jandali’s Freedom Qashoush Symphony

Do you think that musicians in Germany and Europe should take a clearer stand in favor of the Syrian revolution?

Jandali: We need to differentiate between ordinary people and governments. My album "Emessa", which was the old name for the city of Homs and which I dedicated to the Syrian revolution, was recorded together with the Russian Philharmonic Orchestra. To me this means that the people of Russia are with the people of Syria, not with the government. Some of the musicians in Moscow cried when we recorded the piece "Al-Qashoush". For me, art is a universal message, the search for beauty and truth.

You composed the piece "Al-Qashoush symphony" in 2011 and dedicated it to Ibrahim Al-Qashoush, a firefighter from Hama who stood up in public and sang a very famous song against Bashar Al-Assad. Al-Qashoush was brutally tortured, murdered and mutilated, the perpetrators were most probably thugs in the pay of the Assad regime. What do we know about Al-Qashoush? Did he really compose the song "Go away, Bashar"?

On July 4, 2011, Qashoush was found dead,

his throat cut and his vocal cords ripped out

Jandali: Every revolution throughout history has a legend. The legend of the Syrian revolution in music is Ibrahim Al-Qashoush. To me, even though Ibrahim Al-Qashoush was just a firefighter from Hama, he was the first true Syrian artist to break through the wall of fear and lead the way for other musicians and artists – he actually ignited the cultural revolution. This revolution is not only about freedom and human rights. It's a cultural revolution. No freedom, no art; no freedom, no progress.

After you published the Al-Qashoush Symphony in the spring of 2011, regime bandits in Homs targeted your parents. Their apartment was looted and they were both badly injured. How did you feel when that happened? Did you ever think of stopping your public statements against the Assad regime?

Jandali: It was very difficult, to be honest with you. You feel very guilty, useless and weak. It was a shameful act to go and beat my mother and break her teeth, at a time when they couldn't come after me. I am a US citizen; they could not touch me. But you know, to me this was a measure of honor. If this is freedom, I love it to death; I am ready to die.

Recording of Ibrahim al-Qashoush stirrting up protesters with his ballade

The attack on Malek Jandali’s parents and their home in Homs

Some people argue that even if Assad disappears, the Syrian people will not be better off, because Syria will fall apart, socially and geopolitically…

Jandali: Every moment of delay makes the situation more difficult, because we are witnessing the fall of humanity. But I don't want to give up hope. I think that we can build a new, better Syria. The people of Syria have the potential to become a beautiful symphony with different colors. The only thing we are missing is the beat of freedom. The soil of Syria is the cradle of 10,000 years of civilization. The alphabet and the first musical notation were developed in Ugarit, and even the inventor of the Apple computer, Steve Jobs is somehow related to Syria – his biological father was a Jandali from Homs and a cousin of my father.

We don't want to have a little crook, a liar telling us: "Oh, your civilization is only 40 years of Assad!" Let me put it differently: We are already free. There is no return. Bashar Al-Assad is a war criminal who must answer to the ICC for all his crimes.

Are you able to be creative, seeing the endless violence and horrors in Syria?

Jandali: We are witnessing disturbing news every day, but it is an historical moment for the Syrian people and for me personally this is an immense source of inspiration. They bomb people who are lining up for bread in the street – it is horrible, but it reminds you of the price of freedom.

Do you have any new projects?

Jandali: My upcoming project is a Syrian symphony, with four movements, full orchestra, close to 60 minutes of music. It is going to be a major symphony and it is almost finished. Most of the themes and motives are from the streets of Syria, from the revolution. At a later stage, I would like to introduce it to big orchestras and venues around the world. I see it as my duty to present the nobility of this revolution in some of the most respected places on earth. Because that's what art is: it is soft power.