“Push to drive Assad out by year’s end”

Generals Haj Ali (left) and Tlass

Gen. Manaf Tlass, the highest-level defector from the Syrian regime, is said today to be returning to Syria shortly to join the Syrian National Army (SNA) headed by Maj. Gen. Mohammed Hussein Haj Ali, the revolution’s new military top dog.

The exclusive news was made on Twitter by The 47^th (@THE_47th), who has predicted several Syria developments in the past, including Tlass’ defection to France and visit to Saudi Arabia last July.

The 47^th says Tlass (see my posts of July 18, July 25 and July 26) will be assuming a combat role after the October 26 Eid al-Adha marking the end of the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca.

SNA commander Haj Ali is opposed to the creation of a no-fly zone over Syria or rebel held areas in the country. He told the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat in an interview the measure has more cons than pros. “If we can secure the necessary weapons, we can get rid of this crumbling regime fairly quickly,” he said (see my posts of September 5 and September 6)

According to the 47^th:

• The United States, Turkey and opposition umbrella Syrian National Council (SNC) have given the armed opposition -- including the Free Syrian Army (FSA) led by Riad el-Asaad – an “ultimatum” to either join the SNA or be treated like outcasts.
• Once the military overhaul and restructuring is out of the way, a “final push will be made against Assad.”
• In view of that, an unnamed U.S. official “who knows Syria best” expects Assad to be out by year’s end at the cost of an extra “50,000 casualties.”

Syria watchers are linking the above to remarks by Ambassador Susan E. Rice, U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, at yesterday’s Security Council Open Debate on the Middle East, chiefly that “the United States will not wait for all members of this Council to get on the right side of history.”

Here is most what Rice said:

“…I’ll begin with Syria, where the horrifying situation is getting worse. Escalating violence, driven by the Assad regime, has killed tens of thousands and displaced millions of Syrians. And there’s no clearer demonstration of the situation’s threat to regional peace and security than the Syrian government’s recent shelling of (Turkey’s villa) Akcakale, which this Council rightfully condemned.

As the violence and atrocities mount, the United States will not wait for all members of this Council to get on the right side of history. Together with our allies, we’re supporting the opposition as it moves toward an inclusive, democratic transition. We’re further pressuring the regime, and we are addressing the growing humanitarian needs in the region. At the same time, we continue to support the efforts of Joint Special Representative (Lakhdar) Brahimi to find a durable solution to this crisis.

As President Obama told the UN General Assembly last month, the future does not belong to a dictator who massacres his people. The regime of Bashar al-Assad will come to an end. Indeed, this transition is not just inevitable – it has already begun.

Assad’s merciless assault upon the Syrian people has not cowed them into submission, far from it. The opposition is getting stronger, and parts of Syria have slipped from the regime’s control. In these areas, Syrian citizens are banding together to administer towns, reopen schools, and rebuild their economy. And the United States is helping them do so, providing the unarmed civilian opposition with help to organize in support of the transition plan agreed in Cairo last July with its vision for a democratic, pluralistic Syria where all of its people have a say in how they’re governed.

More than one and a half million people have fled their homes, either to neighboring countries or to safer places within Syria. As refugee numbers climb, we commend Syria’s neighbors – including Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, and Iraq – for their generosity and recognize their need for additional support. The United States has committed over $130 million in food, medical supplies, and other life-saving assistance.

We encourage all Member States to respond to the needs identified in the UN’s Syria appeals and to coordinate closely with the United Nations in responding to the crisis. As Syrians plan for transition, we are looking for additional ways to support Syrian efforts to document serious violations of international law, including indiscriminate bombardment and deliberate targeting of civilians.

No one can deny that Assad’s war against the Syrian people now poses real challenges to all of Syria’s neighbors, including Lebanon. From deadly Syrian regime attacks across the border to tens of thousands of refugees, Lebanon is already suffering the consequences of this conflict.

Hezbollah’s active and growing support for Assad’s war exposes Hassan Nasrallah’s claims of promoting Lebanon’s national interest as nothing more than a deadly form of deception. The group’s leaders may try to change the subject by invoking hollow rhetoric about so-called resistance, but the truth is plain to see: Nasrallah’s fighters are now part of Assad’s killing machine and Hezbollah leaders continue to plot with Iran new measures to prop up a murderous and desperate dictator.

We encourage the international community to counter Hezbollah’s terrorist activity and do more to expose Hezbollah’s deepening involvement in Assad’s war…”

Afghan ills in the Syrian revolution

By Jamal Khashoggi

The author is a leading Saudi media figure who served as media aide to Prince Turki bin Faisal Al Saud while he was ambassador to the United Kingdom and to the United States. He was named by Prince Alwaleed bin Talal Al Saud to head his upcoming AlArab TV news channel. Khashoggi wrote this think piece in Arabic for today’s edition of pan-Arab al-Hayat.

By Syrian artist Wissam Al Jazairy

Gloom regarding the Syria crisis is justified. Preparing for the worse is also warranted.

When international troubleshooter for Syria Lakhdar Brahimi chooses to forsake his main peacemaking task to visit refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, it means he has no idea what to do.

He wants to seem active until God wills the predestined.

Likewise, when Saudi Arabia stays away from the foreign ministers’ meeting of the regional quartet (composed of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran) that was proposed by Egypt to solve the Syria crisis, it means the kingdom has lost hope.

If the quartet’s objective is to change Iran’s stance, chances of this happening are nil.

Iran is in Bashar’s boat, even at the price of sinking with him.

If the quartet’s purpose is to find a solution to the Syria crisis, how can Iran deliver a humdinger that escaped the 100-nation Friends of Syria, the Arab League and the United Nations?

The mere existence of this quartet is cause for pessimism.

The Egyptians and Turks now know the quartet is doomed, not because Saudi Arabia opted out but because of Iran’s shenanigans.

For instance, the commander-in-chief of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said members of his elite force are in Syria to provide non-military assistance. He also said Iran won’t intervene militarily in Syria to help the regime.

An official Iranian spokesperson later denied the remarks, saying Tehran would not allow the so-called “axis of resistance” – of which Syria is an essential pillar – to fall.

Basically, you don’t know what the Iranians are denying or confirming.

They insolently announced in Cairo a Syria ceasefire. They made it conditional on cutting off assistance to the opposition and launching a dialogue leading to “reform and consolidation of democracy” in Syria.

So long as we are unto a long-lasting battle, it is worthwhile to draw some parallels between the situation in Syria and the Afghan jihad.

The situation in Syria and the Afghan jihad are becoming ever more comparable by the day.

The Syrians hate such a comparison for obvious reasons.

They dread the “Afghanization” of their country and their struggle.

Counting the 10 years of Afghan jihad against the Soviet occupation, another two years of fighting against the Kabul government left in place by the Soviets and the subsequent years of civil war until this day, you arrive at a total of 33 years of hardships.

The Syrian revolution is only one-and-a-half years old and there seems little hope of it ending soon.

Conflicts among militias can last years. We had a precedent in Lebanon.

We see the Free Syrian Army gaining control of the Salahuddin neighborhood in Aleppo, then losing it, then recapturing it.

That’s how militia wars go.

At the same time, the weight of militia numbers alarms backers, making them deny the militias indispensable weapons.  

For instance, the militias need man-portable air-defense systems or MANPADS to challenge the regime’s air power, which is killing far more civilians than rebels.

U.S. fears of weapons falling into the wrong hands, for instance, hampered delivery to the rebels of some 100 MANPADS contributed by Gulf countries.

The Americans want to see specific controls in place before the weapons get forwarded to the insurgents.

But putting such controls in place is impossible in a country where security has totally collapsed, which is the trademark of all armed revolutions.

Strategists turn naïve or dreamers on occasion. They overlook the merit of past experience. A look at their old files would show the Afghan jihad tribulations that are now manifest in Syria:

### Every attempt to unify the rebels will give rise to a new organization. Some members of the old Free Syrian Army would refuse to integrate with the new Syrian National Army, consequently undermining both organizations and their respective brigades. International backers would then be at a loss as to which of the two is a safe bet.

### Unlike the French, the Syrians can’t agree on a Charles de Gaulle. They are more like the Afghans if not worse. They all think they are leaders.

### Information from inside Syria is consistently contradictor and mostly exaggerated, especially on matters of money and the apportionment of arms.

### A media savvy group is not necessarily the more active on the ground. A group with more video footage on You Tube does not mean it is the strongest.

### Middlemen claiming to know the playing field well do know their contacts thoroughly. But they are totally ignorant of the rest. As a result, they would channel assistance to their contacts, bypassing those they don’t know. The donor country using the middleman is immediately accused of bias and of dividing rebel ranks, if not of conspiring against the revolution.

### The revolution is for honorable men and women and freedom lovers. But it is also an arena for opportunists, dealers, turncoats and even criminals.

### The idea of unifying rebel ranks inside Syria, though overly utopian, should be pursued, since opening a door halfway is better than keeping it shut. At a minimum, coordination would suffice and is achievable thanks to the (non-lethal) equipment (such as encrypted radios and satellite imagery) provided by the Americans and the French. The difficulty in unifying the rebels lies in their variegated provenance. Army defectors come from diverse units at various times. Civilians come from all walks of life and include students, laborers and farmers. Some are religious, others not. Some are politicized, others are not interested in politics, their sole aim being to get rid of the regime. It will always be difficult to group everyone under a single command and control center.

### Don’t believe whoever says the Muslim Brotherhood is the largest faction inside Syria. Don’t believe either whoever says the opposite. The Brotherhood’s political weight can only be known after free and transparent elections are held in Syria. But no state should withhold assistance to the Syrian revolution pending an answer to this $64,000 question.

### “One Address” (with which to coordinate with the Syrian revolution) won’t attract cash and assistance to all sides. Previous experience shows that creation of “One Address” is impossible.

The Syrian revolution has succeeded so far in shutting out al-Qaeda. Even the hard line Salafist groups funded by non-government Gulfites refused to be lured into expressing empathy for al-Qaeda.

At the same time, prolongation of the crisis is exasperating Syrians, as evidenced by their pelting of Brahimi’s motorcade with stones during his visit to a Syrian refugee camp.

After mulling over the regime’s brutality and the free world’s indifference, the Syrian people have come to equate diplomacy with procrastination.

The Syrian people are increasingly convinced that the world has let them down.

Their anger and the aforementioned Afghan ills could open the door to the sort of extremism that outside intelligence and military agencies are trying to forestall.

But their quest has made them reluctant to take action and supply weapons that would settle the battle. In a way, they are shunning something they created by their own hesitation and deferment.

Topmost Syrian rebel commander shoots down call for no-fly zone

Gen. Mohammed Hussein Haj Ali

Who needs a no-fly zone?

The general named to head the newly announced opposition Syrian National Army (SNA) sees no need for a military-enforced no-fly zone over Syria.

The Free Syrian Army (FSA), which is to be supplanted by the SNA, and an overwhelming majority of Syrian opposition fighters and activists as well as members of the aid community have been understandably and incessantly calling for a no-fly zone in recent months to level the playing field with President Bashar al-Assad’s air power.

But Maj. Gen. Mohammed Hussein Haj Ali, who as SNA commander becomes the Syrian revolution’s new military top dog (see my post yesterday), tells the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat in an interview published today he is opposed to the creation of a NFZ over Syria or rebel held areas in the country.

He says the measure has more cons than pros. “If we can secure the necessary weapons,” he adds, “we can get rid of this crumbling regime fairly quickly.”

Asked if international players had promised to arm the SNA, Gen. Haj Ali said, “The (major) countries have always wanted to know where the weapons would end up if supplied to the opposition. Accordingly, the change (creating the SNA) will reassure the country-friends of the Syrian people and will reflect positively on the practical steps as to the supply of weapons.”

“My foremost function,” Gen. Haj Ali said,  “is to control these weapons, which so far were handed out at random, and to make sure they are used to defend Syria.”

Following discussions due to end in around 10 days, the FSA would go by the name of the Syrian National Army, FSA Military Council chief Gen. Mustafa al-Sheikh tells AFP.

“After a long period, we must restructure the army because we fear the proliferation of militias in Syria and want to preserve the country’s future,” he told the agency.

Among those areas that needed restructuring was the control of funds that reach rebel fighters, in order to “prevent the creation of militias because that is very dangerous,” Sheikh said.

While rebel groups are gathered under the auspices of the FSA, the structure of the rebel army remains vague and lacks a strong and cohesive central command.

“There are many groups that claim to be the FSA but do as they please,” said the general.

He said reforms were key to winning the support of the international community which has so far been reluctant to arm the rebels “on the grounds that the [FSA] is not a real institution.”

Earlier yesterday, SNA commander Gen. Haj Ali told The Guardian’s Mona Mahmood on the telephone:

After thorough consultations with many defected Syrian military in Syria, Turkey and Jordan and strong demands by the Syrian people, we decided to form the Syrian National Army to gather all the active forces on the ground and achieve victory by toppling the regime and form the National Army to represent all the components of the Syrian people by their different sects and background.

We have to unify all these efforts within a military institution similar to other institutions in the world in its administration and organization, and it should not have any political agenda – only to defend Syria. This institution will include anyone holding a weapon in Syria now.

The aims of the Syrian National Army are the toppling of the regime and keeping security in Syria after the fall of the regime and securing a suitable atmosphere to conduct free elections under intentional observation. The party that wins in the election will be in charge of running the state and the military will go back to its barracks and do its usual job. I have done thorough consultations with my colleagues in Syria, Turkey and Jordan – rebels, civilians and military men – and we decided to form the Syrian National Army.

The problem in Syria now is that we have so many factions and formations that are fighting under many names, some of them supported by personnel or groups and they act according to their generic, religious or sectarian affiliation. This is a matter that causes the fragmentation of the resistance and poses a great risk for Syria's future, especially after the toppling of the regime (which will fall definitely).

We have consulted the Free Syrian Army represented by its commander, Colonel Riad al-Asaad, about the formation of the Syrian National Army. They accepted but they put conditions that the name "Free Syrian Army" should stay as it is and work under a joint military command. But this is illogical and unfunctional. We do not want the army to be loose. There is no army in the world called a "free army" – the army should have discipline not be free to do anything.

So, till now the FSA did not join us but they do not represent all the brigades who are fighting on the ground and they are in control of a small area in Syria.

We call upon Colonel Riyadh al-Assad to join the Syrian National Army in order to get the support of the world as a military institution not a personal one.

The Syrian National Army now includes military councils inside Syria, Syrian officers abroad, a few brigades inside, defected officers and civilians. We do not have any agenda and we do not belong to any political party. We want to separate the military institution from any political organizations. It is not a personal project but a national one.

I defected ideologically from the regime a long time ago but was hoping for a political breakthrough or that the regime would accept a political solution – but this did not happen.

No patriotic Syrian man would accept what is happening in Syria now. We have made an oath to defend Syria and its people. We cannot watch all this killing and slaughtering of Syrian people and accept it. The situation in Syria now is horrible and scary.

The Syrian [government] army has turned into a gang that serves the regime, which is represented in one man who is ruling the country now by military force, not by law.

Gen. Haj Ali to command “Syrian National Army”

"National Syrian Army" commander Gen. Haj Ali (r) and Tawheed's Saleh 

Some 400 officers from the Free Syrian Army (FSA) concluded a three-day conference in Turkey’s Hatay province bordering Syria with a decision to close ranks and combine the disparate FSA offshoots under a unified command.

Abdel Qader Saleh, who leads the Tawheed Brigade and heads FSA military operations in Aleppo, made the announcement yesterday.

The streamlining move reportedly follows “prodding from Turkey and France, backing from the United States and Arab appreciation.”

Key officers attending the three-day huddle included Col. Riad Asaad, founding commander of the FSA; Col. Qassem Saadeddine, FSA spokesman on the ground inside Syria; Maj. Gen. Adnan Nawras Salou, head of the Joint Military Command Council for the Syrian Revolution; and FSA Military Council head Gen. Mustafa al-Sheikh.

The assumption is that the restructured FSA will henceforth come under the wings of the newly formed “General Command of the Syrian National Army.” Or will it?

Maj. Gen. Mohammed Hussein Haj Ali will head the Syrian National Army, which becomes the Syrian Revolution’s military arm.

Gen. Haj Ali, the revolution’s new military top dog, hails from Hauran in southwest Syria.

He was born in Khirbet Ghazaleh, Deraa Province, in 1954 and headed Syria’s National Defense College since 2008 when he defected to the opposition in early August.

He is a Public Administration graduate of Damascus University, attended the former Soviet Union’s V. I. Lenin Military Academy in 1984-85 and holds a PhD in National Strategy from Egypt’s Nasser Higher Military Academy.