Can 'friends' keep Syrian National Coalition whole?

The Core Group of the Friends of Syria -- better known as the “London 11” -- will devote their Sunday, January 12, meeting in Paris to sweet-talk Syria’s opposition umbrella organization into attending the Geneva-2 conference.

Reporting today from the French capital for the Saudi newspaper of records Asharq Alawsat, Michel Abu Najm quotes official French sources as saying they are “aware of the threats facing the Syrian National Coalition’s future and are familiar with its sensitive position and the difficulty of choosing between participating or boycotting the Geneva-2 conference.”

Abu Najm also quotes opposition sources as confirming the National Council risks splintering into factions after more than half its 121 members served notice this week they would walk away if the Council opted to sit at the Syria peace table in the Swiss resort of Montreux on January 22 (see my previous post, “The Syrian National Coalition is on its last leg”).

The different factions in the National Coalition were unable to reach an agreement on participation at two days of talks in Istanbul this week and postponed a decision on the issue until January 17.

The Syrian National Council, the main 28-member group in the National Coalition, is threatening to boycott the peace talks unless it has assurances that President Bashar al-Assad will be forced to give up power.

The Syrian government has said it will attend the talks but that Assad's departure is not up for negotiation.

The 11-nation core group of the “Friends of Syria” consists of Britain, Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and the United States.

A statement by the Quai d’Orsay says Sunday’s meeting of the London 11 in Paris “will be chaired by Laurent Fabius, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and will take place in the presence of a Syrian National Coalition delegation led by its recently re-elected president, Ahmad al-Jarba.

“This meeting will allow us to reaffirm our full support for the Syrian National Coalition and, in the run-up to the Geneva II conference, to reiterate our shared vision of a political transition addressing the Syrian people’s legitimate aspirations. The creation of a transitional government body with full executive powers is the central objective of the Geneva II conference.

“At a time when the regime’s headlong pursuit of repression against the people continues to aggravate the humanitarian situation, this ministerial meeting will signal our desire to provide increased help to the Syrian National Coalition and the Syrian people, particularly in the liberated areas.”

In context, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wrote in part in his January 6 invitation letter to participants in the Geneva-2 conference:

…I am now convening the Geneva Conference on Syria, and am pleased to invite you to attend the high-level international meeting that will launch the Conference.

The Conference aims to assist the Syrian parties in ending the violence and achieving a comprehensive agreement for a political settlement, implementing fully the Geneva Communiqué, while preserving the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Syria. The Communiqué contains Principles and Guidelines for a Syrian-led transition. These set out a number of key steps, beginning with agreement on a transitional governing body with full executive powers, formed by mutual consent. As the Geneva Communiqué says, the public services must be preserved or restored. This includes the military forces and security and intelligence services. All governmental institutions and state offices must perform according to professional and human rights standards, operating under a top leadership that inspires public confidence, under the control of the transitional governing body.

The Geneva Conference on Syria will convene under my chairmanship, first in an international high-level format over one day at Montreux, Switzerland, on 22 January 2014, beginning at 9 a.m. Negotiations between the two Syrian parties, facilitated by the Joint Special Representative for Syria, Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, will follow immediately in Geneva on 24 January 2014. Adjournments and subsequent meetings may take place in accordance with a work plan to be agreed. The high-level international meeting may resume its deliberations as required.

I am confident the international participants who gather in Montreux will offer meaningful support for constructive negotiations between the Syrian parties in Geneva. I am sure that all present will do their utmost to encourage the Syrian parties to reach a comprehensive settlement, fully implementing the Geneva Communiqué, within an accelerated time frame. In addition to participation in the high-level meeting, it may be necessary to call upon you to assist further as the negotiations between the Syrian parties progress.

In inviting the Syrian parties, I have reminded them that the Security Council has called on them to engage seriously and constructively at the Conference, and underscored that they should be broadly representative and committed to the implementation of the Geneva Communiqué and to the achievement of stability and reconciliation. I have also reminded the Syrian parties that, consistent with the Geneva Communiqué as well as Security Council resolution 1325 (2000) and other relevant resolutions (Annex II), full and effective participation of women is essential.

I look forward to confirmation of attendance of your delegation, and the list of delegates and advisers, at your earliest convenience.

Confirmation of attendance will be taken as commitment to the aims of the Conference stated above, in accordance with the Geneva Communiqué, in particular the Principles and Guidelines for a Syrian-led Transition contained in it.

The Office of the Joint Special Representative will provide a technical information note in due course.

The conflict in Syria has raged for too long, and has imposed too many sacrifices on the people of Syria. The Government and all parties must allow immediate and full humanitarian access to all conflict-affected areas. The violence must be ended expeditiously. All attacks against civilians should cease. All parties must work to put an end to all terrorist acts. The Geneva Conference offers a unique avenue towards these ends. I am deeply grateful for your cooperation in this venture, to help ensure that peace can be restored and the transition foreseen in the Geneva Communiqué can be implemented in a way that fully meets the aspirations of the Syrian people…

The Syrian National Coalition is on its last leg

Clockwise from top left: Beshar, Tayfur, Mrs. al-Ameer and Jarba

Clockwise from top left: Dr. Labwani, Mekdad, Hijab and Sabbagh

Syria’s opposition umbrella known as the Syrian National Coalition for Revolutionary and Opposition Forces is on its last leg.

It is being dragged kicking and screaming to the Geneva-2 peace conference slated for January 22 by its newly reelected leader Ahmad Jarba, its chief Arab benefactor Saudi Arabia, and its so-called Western “friends.”  

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal demanded Tuesday that the National Coalition be the only legitimate umbrella of the Syrian opposition.

He said the planned Geneva-2 peace talks should lead to the formation of a national government with large powers and rejected any role for President Bashar al-Assad and his inner circle in any future government.

The Geneva-1 communiqué of June 2012 said,  “The transitional governing body would exercise full executive powers. It could include members of the present government and the opposition and other groups and shall be formed on the basis of mutual consent.”

“There are some parties who issue statements undermining efforts to make Geneva-2 succeed in resolving the Syria crisis,” al-Faisal told reporters during a visit to Pakistan.

“I fear the aim of these statements is to derail the conference from its goal to implement the Geneva-1 recommendations,” he added.

During its 121-member general assembly meeting in Istanbul on Sunday, the Coalition reelected Jarba as its leader for another six-month term by a 65-52 vote against Syria’s former Prime Minister Riyad Hijab.

It also elected Jarba’s three vice-presidents, namely:

1. Faruq Tayfur
2. Mrs. Noora al-Ameer, a media figure from Homs, and
3. Abdul Hakim Beshar, head of the Kurdish Syrian National Council (KNC), an umbrella group of 15 of the 17 total Kurdish parties in Syria.

Overnight, the Coalition deferred until January 17 its final decision on joining or boycotting the Geneva-2 talks, according to Aljazeera TV channel’s news portal.

The reason is: “Disputes among Coalition members.”

Aljazeera’s correspondent in Istanbul Wassima bin Saleh says the postponement follows threats by 68 of the Coalition’s 121 members to resign from the umbrella organization if it decided to sit at the Geneva-2 table.

Twenty-eight of the 68 dissidents belong to the Syrian National Council (SNC) chaired by George Sabra.

The 40 other members planning to break away from the Coalition include former Premier Riyad Hijab, Free Syrian Army spokesman Louay Mekdad, the Coalition’s former secretary-general Mustafa al-Sabbagh and Dr. Kamal al-Labwani.

Mushakis.net, Syria’s satirical online daily, suggests today that a “ghost figure” representing the Coalition has already delivered the political alliance’s “unconditional approval” to attend Geneva-2.

Saudi Arabia’s Asharq Alawsat said earlier the hush-hush missive to the United Nations carried Jarba’s own signature and was handed over to UN headquarters in New York by Najib al-Ghadban, the Coalition’s representative to Washington.

Syrian National Council shoots down Geneva-2

Top: "Solution in The Hague, not Geneva." Above: Russia, U.S., Iran and Syrian regime rule the roost in Geneva

The Syrian National Council (SNC), the main component of Syria’s opposition umbrella organization known as the Syrian National Coalition, reaffirmed yesterday it will not attend the planned Geneva-2 peace conference.

The statement reiterates an earlier announcement by SNC president George Sabra in October that the group had taken a “firm decision” not to attend the talks.

Sabra had also said the SNC would withdraw from the National Coalition if it decided to attend.

The group has long insisted it refuses to negotiate until President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime exits power.

Sabra’s SNC said in a statement posted in Arabic on its Facebook page:

The SNC’s General Secretariat met in the city of Istanbul throughout January 3 and 4, 2014, to discuss issues of concern to the Syrian Revolution as well as the Syria situation in general.

On its agenda was a set of important matters awaiting fitting decisions.

The General Secretariat heard reports about the internal situation on the ground and its evolution in light of the surrounding circumstances.

The international and regional situation and its fallouts on the Revolution’s course were appraised as well.

In addition, the General Secretariat took stock of the report by the SNC’s Executive Office on its international activities and contacts during the previous phase and the ensuing assessments of the contacts.

In light of the said givens, and regarding attendance of the Geneva-2 conference, the General Secretariat discussed the matter from all angles.

And after weighing up the political, military and humanitarian relief situation and hearing special and detailed reports about the regional and international political visits and gatherings, it emerged that all the efforts exerted by the Opposition (i.e. both the Syrian National Council and the Syrian National Coalition) to overcome the hurdles blocking convocation of the conference failed to yield positive results because the regime and its allies did not fully commit to the spirit and provisions of Geneva-1 and the regime failed to implement any of them.

On the contrary, they added a new task to Geneva-2, which they dubbed “Fighting Terrorism” -- with the regime persisting in its use of such war tactics as partial sieges, starvation, random killings by barrel-bomb attacks and the occupation of Syrian lands by sectarian militias summoned by the regime from beyond the border without a reaction from Arab or international societies.

In the end, the SNC’s General Secretariat did not find any realistic development or clear and specific agenda ensuring the conference’s success in achieving the Syrian Revolution’s objectives, which would have it revise its earlier decision.

Hence, it decided to reiterate and reaffirm its previous decision to stay away from the Geneva-2 conference under the present conditions…

Michel Kilo: A few words about Col. Riad al-Asaad

File picture of Syrian-American activist Farah Atassi with Col. Riad al-Asaad

Michel Kilo, the renowned Syrian Christian writer, opposition thinker and human rights activist, chooses today to write, “A few words about Riad al-Asaad.”

Col. al-Asaad is the man who defected from the Syrian Air Force in mid-2011 to found and then command the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

On March 25, he lost a leg in his booby-trapped car in al-Mayadeen, near Deir Ezzor.

Writing for today’s edition of the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, Kilo says in the main:

I must begin this article by admitting I considered Col. Al-Asaad to be a stumbling block to the FSA’s evolvement and unity.

I thought he was self-centered and wanted to remain at the FSA’s helm despite lacking the military qualifications.

I never shared my opinion of Col. al-Asaad with anyone. But each time his name was mentioned, my bad impressions of him would flood back to my mind.

Worse still, I used to think he was being manipulated by external intelligence services -- whether regional or Arab -- and that he was fronting for meddlers in Syrian affairs, if only to sustain “his” army.

I was apprised that efforts to wrest the FSA from the colonel’s grip were always being frustrated by his maneuvering ability and by the appreciable inroads he made in the FSA.

My overall impression of the man, in other words, was totally negative.

I thought he epitomized corruption in the military echelon such as you would find in the political echelon of the Syrian National Council and Syrian Opposition Coalition.

Suddenly, the fighting forces within and outwith the FSA were restructured and Col. Al-Asaad was removed from his command of the opposition army and totally sidelined.

What was the man’s reaction? And how did he prove his true mettle?

Col. al-Assad swiftly disproved the idea he was an egocentric and self-serving FSA commander.

Once sidelined, he did not bump heads with anyone. He did not disparage a soul. He did not form a caucus to fight his corner and help him recoup his lost authority.

He did not contact a single politician or officer to complain or bemoan his bad luck.

Once removed, he accepted to step down from the helm and simply sped to the battlefield, where he proved himself to be a proud and honorable nationalist for whom public interest supersedes self-interest.

The man stepped down and enrolled as an unknown and nameless soldier in the battle for freedom.

We started hearing his news on occasion. We would hear he was in the Idlib countryside, then in Aleppo, then in the countryside of Hama and later in Hama city proper.

Last we heard was an attempt on his life. The Assad regime was bent on getting rid of him, even after he became an anonymous foot soldier in the resistance army.

Col. al-Asaad’s comportment and actions proved me and his other doubters wrong when he turned his back on preeminence and a command and control position to join the people’s fight for liberty and democracy.

The leg Col. al-Asaad lost crowns him leader of his country’s freedom fighters.

Osama Kadi, Syria’s likely interim premier

Osama Kadi (top). Right, with UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan and Farah Atassi

A man for all seasons seems the one to beat in the election of Syria’s provisional prime minister at the two-day meeting of the main Syrian opposition coalition starting tomorrow in Istanbul.

His name is Osama Kadi.

An Aleppo native, he has lived, studied and worked, as an economics consultant, in Syria, Canada and the United States.

He now leads the Syrian opposition taskforce drawing up plans for post-war economic recovery

To boot, he is a theater director.

Kadi is a member of the Syrian National Council (SNC), the largest component of the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (SNA) headed by Moaz al-Khatib.

Two previous SNA attempts to name an interim prime minister were postponed over seemingly intractable differences. Consensus has been building as the Syria war enters its third year.

French President François Hollande first floated the idea of an interim government, which would help administer the large swaths of land in the north and northeast the rebels have seized, in August 2012.

Hollande at that time told French ambassadors in an annual foreign policy speech, “France asks the Syrian opposition to form a provisional government — inclusive and representative — that can become the legitimate representative of the new Syria.”

The Council of Arab Foreign Ministers picked up the baton earlier this month with a resolution urging the SNA to form an “executive body” to take up Syria's vacant seat at the Arab League and represent Syria at the upcoming Arab summit in Doha.

The SNA announced overnight on its Internet page the names of nine nominees for prime minister. It separately said on its Facebook page it was keeping secret the names of two other nominees for their own safety since they still live in Syria.

Frontrunner Kadi is:

• General coordinator of the Syrian Economic Task Force (SETF)
• President of the Syrian Canadian Council
• Founder and president of the Washington-based, non-profit Syrian Center for Political and Strategic Studies (SCPSS)
• President of Concordia College of Canada for Health, Business and Technology

Kadi did economics consultancy work for the Syrian Agency for Combating Unemployment and the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Syria.

Stateside, he taught macro- and microeconomics at the Dearborn campus of the University of Michigan and business management at Baker College of Allen Park. His paper “Who Reaps the Benefits of peace in the Middle East” was presented at the 1994 MESA (Middle East Studies Association) conference in Washington.

He has also written innumerable articles and papers on economics and politics for Syrian, Arab and international journals.

The London-based Strategic Research & Communication Centre published his 2011 study titled “Syrian Industry and the Problem of the Executive” on the eve of the Syrian revolt.

Kadi is on the active membership rolls of the:

• American Economic Association (AEA)
• Syrian Economic Science Association (SESA)
• Middle East Studies Association (MESA)
• Middle East Economic Association (MEEA)
• Middle East Institute (MEI)
• Academy of Political Science (APS)
• Western Economic Association
• American Sociological Association
• American Association of University Professors (AAUP)
• United Nations Association in Washington DC
• Canadian Association of Journalists

Stage director Kadi in action

Going back to “a man for all seasons,” Kadi is a theater actor and director in his spare time.

He co-founded the Risala Theatrical Group RTG in Canada, performed on stage there and in the United States.

The last theater production he directed in September 2011 – “Abu Sultan’s Family” – showcases the life of a Middle East family that immigrates to Canada in pursuit of a better life.

“Obama to receive Khatib and FSA chief of staff”

Clockwise from top left: Obama, Khatib, Mrs. Atassi and Idriss

President Barack Obama is reportedly expected to receive Syrian National Coalition leader Moaz al-Khatib and the Chief of Staff of the Free Syrian Army, Brig. Gen. Salim Idriss, on their visit to Washington next week.

Syrian American activist Farah Atassi, who broke the news on her Facebook page an hour ago, said both men will also confer with leading members of the U.S. Administration.

Mrs. Atassi is the founder and President of the Arab Information & Resource Center in Washington DC.

She is also executive director of the American Arab Communication & Translation Center (ACT), which provides international consultancy, translations, language services, research, media monitoring, strategic assessment and analysis to U.S. and Arab governments, NGOs and corporations.

The International Peace Federation at the United Nations nominated her as an Ambassador of Peace for her role in business diplomacy, and interfaith and cross-cultural dialogue.

Syrian opposition chief stands in the line of fire

Moaz al-Khatib

Moaz al-Khatib is today facing calls to step down as head of the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces over his “unilateral offer” to negotiate with representatives of President Bashar al-Assad.

The resignation calls come after the Syrian National Council (SNC), a key component of the National Coalition, openly challenged Khatib’s conditional proposal.

The overt controversy broke out soon after Khatib posted Tuesday a statement on his personal Facebook page saying he would “sit face to face with Syrian regime representatives in Cairo or Tunis or Istanbul.”

He made the talks offer conditional on the Damascus government first releasing 160,000 detainees and renewing or extending for two years all Syrian exiles’ passports. (See last night’s post, “War of words breaks out in Syrian opposition ranks.”)

“Speaking in a personal capacity does not change the fact Khatib heads the National Coalition,” says Anas al-Abdah, a member of the SNC and chairman of the Movement for Justice and Development in Syria.

He tells today’s edition of Saudi Arabia’s leading daily Asharq Alawsat, “[Khatib] should have resigned before broaching such a sensitive issue. As head of the National Coalition, he should have consulted its members first.

“By failing to do so as Coalition leader, he proved to be short of political and leadership maturity and lacking political experience…

“I urge him to reconsider his position as Coalition leader.”

The SNC’s Ibrahim Merei, whose London-based Barada TV has been focusing on issues of democracy, human rights, youth activism and civil society empowerment since April 2009, tells Asharq Alawsat:

“I stand by the revolutionary forces… Whoever represents them should preclude direct or indirect talks with the regime...

“Khatib’s remarks are a betrayal of the blood of people killed in Syria. I urge him to retract... If he is coming under international pressure, he can simply pull out.”

A third reaction comes from Obeida Faris, head of the Arab Foundation for Development and Citizenship (AFDC).

He tells the paper: “Syrians sacrificed over 60,000 martyrs, more than two million refugees and exiles as well as tens of thousands of detainees. This was not to win a loaf of bread or renew passports.

“Passports were denied to tens of thousands of Syrians for several decades. But that didn’t drive them to sit down with a bloodstained regime that committed more crimes than any other serial killer in history.

“I can understand the humanitarian pressure the National Coalition leader is coming under… But concessions need not exceed red lines set by the National Coalition.”

Faris was specifically referring to two provisions in the agreement that founded the National Coalition in Doha last November.

The two provisions are: “(1) The sides agree to bring down the regime and all its symbols and mainstays, to disband the regime’s security services and to call to account those responsible for crimes against Syrians, and (2) The Coalition commits not to engage in any dialogue or negotiation with the regime.” (See my November 11, 2012, post, “The Syrian opposition’s Doha agreement.”)

Editorially, the publisher and editor-in-chief of the pan-Arab daily al-Quds al-Arabi, Abdelbari Atwan, today writes of “Khatib’s bombshell shattering the Syrian scene.”

Sheikh al-Khatib is neither ignorant nor naïve, says Atwan. He only aired his initiative after taking stock of information and facts gathered at two international conferences he attended this month. They are the January 9-10 meeting hosted by the Foreign and Commonwealth Office to galvanize international support for a Syrian-led transition to a stable democratic country and the January 28 “Friends of Syria” conference in Paris.

“He heard the opinions of both guests and hosts at the two venues. And the opinions simply dashed his hopes, chiefly as regards the supply of qualitative weapons to the opposition.”  

Atwan continues:

“Multiple reasons must have prompted Khatib to air his initiative, which could see him resign after coming in for a lot of shameless flak, or which could see a breakup of the Syrian opposition with the SNC choosing to opt out of the National Coalition.”

Atwan encapsulates the multiple reasons as follows:

1. The definitive rejection by the West -- chiefly the United States – of the idea of arming the Free Syrian Army and other rebel groups coupled with an explicit warning to the Gulf States not to fund or arm the rebels.

2. Barack Obama’s upbeat proclamation in his second inaugural speech earlier this month that “a decade of war is now ending.”

3.  The Syria crisis stagnating after the regime’s failure to overcome the armed opposition and the latter’s inability to bring down the regime by force.

4. A misreading by the opposition’s Arab and other backers of the regime’s resilience and Russia and Iran’s unbounded support of Assad.

5. A rise in the clout of Jihadists on the ground, especially in northern Syria, and their success in recruiting thousands of young Syrians and in offering social welfare services in areas under their control, which is what the Taliban did earlier in Afghanistan.

6. The acquiescence of most Arab countries supportive of the armed opposition that a peaceful transition is the way out of the crisis. The consequence is acceptance of the regime – albeit for a short period – and opening the door of dialogue with it.

7. Mothballing of the Syria file by the Arab League and its foreign ministers.

“Sheikh Moaz al-Khatib grasps all that,” Atwan writes. “But, above all,  he realizes that the international community has started to address the Syria crisis as an issue of refugees, rather than the cause of a people seeking reform, democratic change and the removal of a dictatorship.

“The just-concluded conference in Kuwait of international donors for Syria, where more than a billion dollars were pledged for Syrian refugees, is proof of the new turnaround.

“The focusing on humanitarian and apolitical aspects by Arab and foreign countries under the sponsorship of the United Nations and its secretary-general evokes memories of a similar approach 65 years ago to the Palestine Question. That’s when the ‘Question’ became one of refugees deserving relief aid in their host countries…”

War of words breaks out in Syrian opposition ranks

A serious war of words has broken out in the open among the topmost political echelons of the Syrian opposition.

The Syrian National Council (SNC) today publicly challenged a statement made overnight by Moaz el-Khatib, head of the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, of which the SNC is the main component.

The SNC’s current chairman George Sabra is also vice-president of the Coalition.

The overt controversy broke out soon after Moaz el-Khatib posted overnight a statement on his personal Facebook page saying:

“I learned through the mass media the regime in Syria wants to open a dialogue with the opposition and the interior minister is inviting opposition leaders to return to Damascus.  

“Frankly, there’s no trust in a regime that kills children, attacks breadlines, bombs universities, destroys Syria’s infrastructure and commits gruesome massacres such as its latest in Aleppo, which is unparalleled in its savagery.

“The revolution goes on and time-wasting is over. But since the Syrian citizen is in such an unprecedented crisis -- and as a sign of goodwill in the quest for a political solution and in order to pave the way for a transition stage that would spare added bloodshed – I declare that I am prepared to sit face to face with Syrian regime representatives in Cairo or Tunis or Istanbul.

“Since the Syrian people’s freedom is non-negotiable, my preliminary condition to sit with regime representatives is:

“1. The release of 160,000 detainees, starting with the females and those held by Air Force Intelligence and in Sednaya prison, and

‘2. A directive to all regime embassies to either issue new passports to all Syrians whose passports have expired or extend for two years the validity of their existing ones.”

The SNC retorted today through an official statement posted in turn on its own Facebook page saying:

“Reference the remarks of Sheikh Ahmed Moaz el-Khatib, head of the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, in which he mentions a conditional offer for negotiations with the Syrian regime, the SNC affirms that the remarks do not express the SNC position and are incompatible with the National Council’s statutes and Doha founding charter. These categorically rule out negotiations with the criminal regime and call for its removal along with all its symbols.

“The SNC reiterates its rejection of any settlement or negotiation with the Syrian regime. (Signed, SNC).”

Moaz el-Khatib threw down the gauntlet within hours, saying in part on his personal Facebook page:

“We don’t negotiate on the regime’s survival, but on its departure at the least possible cost in blood and destruction. But that was my personal opinion and I stand by my right to express it.

“Figures, organizations and states finding [my] view ill-suited have the right to express theirs too.

“The National Coalition’s provisional political bureau will be meeting tomorrow (Thursday) and will determine the National Coalition’s official position…”

A cacophony of sound bites pounds Syria

Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki al-Faisal yesterday called for Syrian rebels to be given anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons to “level the playing field” in their fight to remove President Bashar al-Assad.

“I’m not in government so I don’t have to be diplomatic. I assume we’re sending weapons and if we were not sending weapons it would be a terrible mistake on our part,” he said in a televised debate at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland.

Prince Turki, co-founder of the King Faisal Foundation and board chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, is the son of the late King Faisal and brother of the kingdom’s foreign minister. He studied at Princeton, Cambridge and Georgetown universities before serving in succession over the years as adviser to royal court, intelligence chief, ambassador to the UK and Ireland, and finally ambassador to the United States.

“You have to level the playing field. Most of the weapons the rebels have come from captured Syrian stocks and defectors bringing their weapons,” he said.

“What is needed are sophisticated, high-level weapons that can bring down planes, can take out tanks at a distance. This is not getting through.”

But Prince Turki said foreign powers should have enough information on the many rebel brigades to ensure weapons only reached non-extremist groups.

Extremists are flowing into Syria from North Africa, Europe and other regions to fight with opposition forces, he said.

“Stop the killing and you won’t have these terrorists, they won’t have any place to go in Syria,” the Saudi prince said. Their presence was predicted from day one in the event of a prolonged crisis. The answer is to channel funds to “the good guys” among the opposition.

"You can select the good guys and give them these means and build their credibility," he said. "Now they don't have the means, and the extremists have the means and are getting the prestige."

“Sixty thousand people have been killed already,” Prince Turki said. “Do we have to wait for double or triple that number to die before Assad leaves?”

Pressed on the thorny issue whether the opposition’s allies are sending weapons into Syria, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said: “The Turkish people have helped the refugees with their humanitarian needs and also the Syrian people to defend themselves by the best means… The Syrian people know what we are doing, how we are helping.”

Panelists agreed there must be a political solution in Syria.

Syria has become a “proxy war” with different countries trying to defend or impose their own interests, said Ghassan Salamé, Dean of The Paris School of International Affairs. Any solution could take many years unless one of two things happens, he said. Either one side must prevail militarily, or a political solution must be imposed on the various players from outside. “I don’t see another way out of this,” he said.

“Europeans, Arabs, Chinese, Russians: we’re all committing a crime by watching people in Syria die,” Salamé said, warning the worst was yet to come if the battle for Damascus begins in earnest. That is likely to be devastating and send many thousands more refugees into Lebanon and Jordan.

Jordan’s Abdullah

Also speaking yesterday in Davos during a panel appearance with CNN's Fareed Zakaria, Jordan’s King Abdullah warned, “Anyone who says that Bashar’s regime has got weeks to live really doesn't know the reality on the ground."

“They still have capability. ... So (I expect) a strong showing for at least the first half of 2013,” he said.

Nonetheless, fears are growing Syria may implode as the protracted conflict gets nastier.

Any fragmentation of the country into small states would be “catastrophic and something that we would be reeling from for decades to come,” Abdullah said.

He also warned of the threat of foreign jihadist fighters now in Syria.

Al-Qaeda has been established there for the past year and is getting support “from certain quarters,” the king said.

“They are a force to contend with, so even if we got the best government into Damascus tomorrow, we have at least two or three years of securing our borders from them coming across and to clean them up,” he said.

Comparing the militant threat with that seen in Afghanistan, Abdullah said: "The new Taliban we are going to have to deal with will be in Syria.”

Abdullah appealed for greater international help for more than 300,000 Syrian refugees who have already fled over the border into Jordan and are suffering in the grip of a cruel winter.

He also urged the stockpiling of humanitarian supplies that could be taken across Syria's borders, to try to keep people from leaving -- and to win hearts and minds.

“If these people start to starve and they don't have fuel and electricity and water, and hospitals are not running, that's when radicalization comes in and take advantage,” the king said.

Henry Kissinger

Richard Nixon, Hafez Assad and Henry Kissinger (syrianhistory.com)

Also touching on Syria in his wide-ranging address to business leaders at the Forum in Davos earlier on Thursday was the Nixon Administration’s secretary of state Henry Kissinger, who brokered the Syria-Israel disengagement agreement with Bashar’s father Hafez Assad in March 1974.

Kissinger called on Washington and Moscow to work together to solve the Syria crisis.

He counseled “an American-Russian understanding as a first step towards defining what the objective is,” adding: “The Syrian problem would best be dealt with internationally by Russia and America not making it a contest of national interest.”

The Syrian conflict, initially seen as a fight of democracy against dictatorship, has transformed into a conflict between various ethnic groups, leaving the international community with a dilemma. “The outside world finds that if it intervenes militarily, it will be in the middle of a vast ethnic conflict; and if it doesn’t intervene militarily, it will be caught in a humanitarian tragedy,” said Kissinger.

While a number of outcomes are possible –- Assad staying in office, a total “Sunnite” victory, or an emergence of a loose federation of various ethnic groups –- what is clear is that “the more the outside world competes, the worse it gets,” he said.

John Kerry

John Kerry, the incoming secretary of state who met several times over the years with Bashar, did not mention Syria in his opening statement at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee on Thursday.

But when pressed by Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., about getting more directly involved in helping the Syrian rebels, Kerry said he needs time to understand the situation better.

McCain, part of a bipartisan group of senators which just got back from a trip to the Middle East and visited Syrian refugees camps, told Kerry they feel “an anger and frustration” and believe the United States is indifferent to their suffering.

One Syrian teacher told McCain and the other senators, “This next generation of children will take revenge on those that did not help them.”

McCain added, “We are sowing the wind in Syria and we are going to reap the whirlwind.”

He said, “We can do a lot more, without putting boots on the ground” – such as a no-fly zone – and he complained that “all I get, frankly, from the (Obama) administration is the fall of Assad is, quote, ‘inevitable.’ I agree, but what about what happens in the meantime?”

Another member of the delegation that toured the Middle East, Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., complained to Kerry that U.S. humanitarian aid intended for Syrian refugees “has not reached the people on the ground.”

Kerry and McCain at the confirmation hearing

In response to both Coons and McCain, Kerry said “if you have a complete implosion of the state” in Syria after Assad’s fall, it would greatly increase the risk that Assad’s chemical weapons arsenal would fall into the wrong hands.

Asked about the personal bond he once had with Assad, Kerry said there was a moment where Syria reached out to the West but that the moment has long passed.

“Sometimes there are moments where you may be able to get something done in foreign policy, and if the moment somehow doesn’t ripen correctly or get seized, you miss major opportunities,” he said.

"History caught up to us. That never happened. And it's now moot, because he (Assad) has made a set of judgments that are inexcusable, that are reprehensible, and I think is not long for remaining as the head of state in Syria," the senator said. "I think the time is ticking."

Kerry also said: “We need to change Bashar Assad’s calculation. Right now President Assad doesn’t think he’s losing -- and the opposition thinks it is winning.”

Kerry said the goal of U.S. policy is a peaceful transition to a new government.

He said he hoped to confer with the Russians and with others and “increase the readiness of President Assad to see that the die is cast, the handwriting is on the wall….”

“I don’t want inquisitiveness or curiosity about what possibilities might exist with the Russians to be translated into optimism. I don’t have optimism. I have hope,” the senator said.

Coons told Kerry, “We frankly face a very narrow window to make a difference on the ground in support of the opposition.”  

“I get it,” Kerry answered, but he said he was worried about who would control the country if Assad were forced out of power.

Laurent Fabius

In Paris, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said in his annual New Year's address to the press there was no sign the Syria war was going to end anytime soon, in contrast to his prediction last month that the end was near for Assad.

"Things are not moving. The solution we had hoped for, and by that I mean the fall of Bashar and the arrival of the [opposition’s National] Coalition to power, has not happened," he said.

France was the first to recognize the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces as the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people.

Fabius told RFI radio in December "the end is nearing" for Assad. On Thursday, he said international mediation and discussions about the crisis were not getting anywhere.

"There are no recent positive signs," he said.

He said National Coalition leaders and representatives of some 50 nations and organizations would meet in Paris on Monday to discuss how to fulfill previous commitments. He did not elaborate.