The state of play in Syria today

Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the Grand Imam of al-Azhar Ahmad al-Tayyib

“Syria was not drowning in her blood yet. She was being swept by peaceful protests suggesting an Arab Spring wind was blowing in her direction,” Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of pan-Arab al-Hayat, comments today.

He carries on:

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei received an Arab guest. The conversation centered on Syria.

A conclusive sentence by the host summarized the position: “The choice is obvious in Syria. She can be like she used to be or she won’t be anyone’s at all.”

I met Khamenei’s Arab visitor in Cairo. He was trying to explain to me why Lebanese Hezbollah crossed the border to join the fighting in Syria.

He said, “All sides have laid their cards on the table. From hereon, makeup and facelifts are good-for-nothing. We are in the throes a Sunni-Shiite conflict. The struggle taking place in and over Syria will determine future balances in the region.”

A few hours earlier, I had called on Sheikh Ahmad al-Tayyib, the Grand Imam of al-Azhar. I saw him worrying lest the conflict in Syria turns sectarian. He felt bitter about Hezbollah hurling itself into the Syria war and tarnishing its image as a party solely devoted to standing up to Israel.

The Grand Imam of al-Azhar does not reproach Hezbollah only.

He did not get convincing answers from one of his visitors named Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The dialogue last February was frank and transparent. The Grand Imam of al-Azhar quizzed his visitor about Iran’s position vis-à-vis Bahrain and the three UAE islands.

He also asked him about Iran’s role in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. And he did not hesitate to ask Ahmadinejad about the Sunnis’ circumstances in Iran itself.

Ahmadinejad answered the tough questions by encapsulating the Iranian stance in one sentence: “Resistance to the usurper Zionist entity.”

The tiff did not go unnoticed.

The gravity of the conflict in Syria has forced all countries concerned to outpace diplomatic phraseology and lay bare their true positions.

President Mohamed Morsi, who at one point fancied courting Iran and Russia to carve out a Syria peace role for Egypt, buried the idea after Hezbollah’s plunge. He also hardened his position against the regime and went overboard.

The ongoing bloodbath in Syria changed the images of countries and their roles. It unmasked the depth of their contradictory feelings, their conflicting policies and their old and new fears.

The perception of Iran forging ahead under the banner of bravado and resistance hit a brick wall of Sunni resentment across the region. Tehran’s immersion in the Syria crisis lost Iran her aura and image.

At the same time, the axis of resistance lost its sole Sunni interface, Hamas. The Hamas movement in turn repositioned itself in its natural camp.

Overt interference in Syria dramatically changed Hezbollah’s footing. Having said it was joining a life-or-death battle in Syria, the party is now on the first line of engagement with the Sunnis of Syria, Lebanon and the region.

Hezbollah’s venture accelerated the cracks in Lebanon’s state institutions, coupled the “Lebanese arena” with the “Syrian arena” and added new injuries to historic wounds.

There are those who believe Lebanon will suffer from the logic “it is either ours or no one else’s.” This means bringing the temple down if you can’t make it solely yours.

The battle for Qusayr thrust the region into a situation where governments have to be in sync with inflamed passions on their street.

Decisions taken at the Doha meeting show the conflict has reached the point of no return.

Measures by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partners targeting Hezbollah loyalists and financiers sent an unmistakable signal. The battle in Syria has turned regional and international.

Russia’s behavior is in step with “Syria can be like she used to be or she won’t be anyone’s at all.”

Still dithering and fearful of Jabhat al-Nusra and its sisters, America has been whitewashed to accept arming the opposition.

The Syrian regime opted too soon for “Syria can be like she used to be or she won’t be anyone’s at all.”

For hardliners in the opposition, “Syria can be like we wish her to be or she won’t be anyone’s at all.”

A battle as vitriolic internally, regionally and internationally threatens to pulverize Syria and ravage the weak neighboring milieus.

No one country can endure this level of risks and this number of risk-takers.

U.S.-Russia back-room deal over Syria takes shape

Now that he’s won, after putting Syria on hold throughout his reelection campaign, U.S. President Barack Obama seems set to bungle the Syrian Revolution.

Instead of arming Syrian opposition rebels to topple President Bashar al-Assad, his administration is now hard-selling Russia’s roadmap for a Syrian-led political settlement.

The opening shots in the U.S.-Russian common approach to the Syria crisis came a week before Election Day, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the Syrian National Council was dysfunctional.

Within days, the State Department was orchestrating the ongoing hullabaloo in Doha over a Syrian National Initiative (SNI) to replace the SNC (see my Nov. 3 post, U.S. push to overhaul Syrian opposition gains pace).

Almost at the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov flew to Cairo for talks with Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby and Syria troubleshooter Lakhdar Brahimi.

Lavrov told reporters at a post-talks press conference, “We decided what to do in Geneva. And it is incumbent upon us to move forwards on the basis of what was agreed upon in Geneva. And the players outside the region should coordinate and… in one direction. And Russia is doing just that. It is trying to execute what was agreed upon in Geneva.”

A more indicative sign Washington and Moscow have shaken hands on a Syria deal came yesterday from New York.

Warning Syria’s current path of violence will lead the country “to its destruction,” UN Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman -- who until last June was U.S. Assistant Secretary of State -- said there was an urgent need to “shift away” from the military logic driving the conflict and to move towards a political process.

“It has to be a Syrian-led process; it can’t be imposed,” Feltman told reporters at UN Headquarters in New York after he briefed a closed meeting of the UN Security Council on the situation in the war-ravaged country.

“It must bring real change and a clean break from the past,” he added.

With that goal in mind, Feltman said, Brahimi was working with “great urgency,” mentioning that Brahimi’s deputy Nasser al-Kidwa was “monitoring” the Syrian opposition restructuring in Doha.

“The situation inside Syria is turning grimmer every day,” he told reporters, adding there was a growing risk the crisis could “explode outward into an already volatile region.”

“We might, in fact, already be seeing signs of this spillover,” Feltman said, referring to Syria-related violence in Turkey and Lebanon, and what he called “activities” in the Golan.

“We don’t think the fighting is directed at undermining the disengagement of forces agreement per se,” Feltman said in response to a question on the situation in Golan. “It is the Syrian-on-Syrian fighting. But, nevertheless, we are quite concerned about what the impact could be if there is not an immediate return to full compliance with that disengagement of forces agreement.”

Feltman flagged how Brahimi saw a June communiqué by the UN-backed Action Group on Syria as still providing an “important building block” for an eventual peace.

The Action Group is made up of the UN and Arab League chiefs; the foreign ministers of the five permanent members of the Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) as well as the Turkish foreign minister; the high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy; and the foreign ministers of Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar, who are members of the Arab League ministerial committee on Syria.

At a meeting in Geneva last June 30, the Group had approved the “Geneva Declaration” -- a set of principles and guidelines for a Syrian-led transition that meets the aspirations of the Syrian people.

Among other proposed measures, the Geneva Declaration called on all parties to immediately recommit to a sustained cessation of armed violence in a bid to end the conflict, in addition to the establishment of a transitional governing body that would exercise full executive powers and would be made up of members of the Assad regime and the opposition and other groups (see full text of the Geneva Declaration in my June 30 post, Syria Action Group leaves open Assad question).

U.S. push to overhaul Syrian opposition gains pace

Clockwise from L.: Aref Dalila, Riad Hijab, Kamal Labwani, Riad Seif, Michel Kilo and Sadeq Jalal al-Azm

Muntaha Sultan al-Atrash (left), Razan Zaitouneh (top left), Fedaa Hourani (center) and Suhair Atassi (right)

The U.S.-sponsored drive to overhaul the Syrian opposition’s leadership is roller-coasting its way to a November 8 finale in Doha.

The drive aims to form a new opposition umbrella, called the Syrian National Initiative (SNI), to supplant the Syrian National Council (SNC).

Riad Seif, a former Syrian parliamentarian and dissident, developed the SNI blueprint.

The U.S. plan to change horses midstream were first revealed October 31 by Foreign Policy’s Josh Rogin in his daily Web column The Cable (see my post of the same day, U.S. set to revisit Syria with ‘Riad Seif plan’).

Hours later, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the SNC should no longer be considered the “visible leader” of the opposition movement, that many of its members have not been back to Syria in “20, 30 or 40 years” and there must be a “representation of those who are on the frontlines fighting and dying today.”

The following day (Nov. 1), the State Department said it has identified individual Syrians who “show leadership” and is “bringing them to the attention” of opposition members who will gather November 7 in Doha.

“This is primarily political leadership -- people who cannot only organize, but provide services. Because what this really is about is the day after, and the day will come when Assad falls -- and there needs to be in place structures that can provide governance and services to the people,” said Patrick Ventrell, acting deputy State Department spokesman.

The focus, the official said, is on people with political and administrative skills, not military skills. Although some of them, he said, may have fought against the government as part of the opposition.

Ventrell directly criticized the SNC, saying that “after many months, (it) has not succeeded in broadening its leadership -- not to more insiders, not ethnically and not geographically. Meanwhile, we and our Friends of the Syrian people, have encountered individuals who have already displayed leadership and want to be part of Syria's future.”

The United States is anxious to avoid looking as if it is orchestrating the Doha opposition conference. Ventrell said Ambassador Robert Ford and his team will be there "on the sidelines" of the meeting.

“We are bringing these people to the attention of the Doha participants,” he said. “We’re not choosing anyone. Only the Syrian people can do that. Helping bring attention to a broader pool of candidates for the Syrian people to consider for potential leadership.”

Twenty-four hours later, Riad Seif was in Amman for consultations on the proposed SNI with about 25 Syrian dissidents and activists. Involved in the huddle were former Premier Riad Hijab, the former head of Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood Ali Sadreddin al-Bayanouni, Kamal al-Labwani and Suhair Atassi.

SNI blueprint

Seif outlined the blueprint for the SNI in Arabic. The Carnegie think-tank promptly offered this translation of the document, “given its importance for Syria and U.S. policy”:

The current situation impresses upon us the need to form a leadership framework that will bring together all revolutionary and opposition forces. Syria is in desperate need of strong leadership that is cooperative and inclusive, a leadership that responds to the needs of the revolution and our steadfast people. Establishing such a framework will ensure that the new leadership enjoys the broad support of the Syrian people and thus has the legitimacy to be recognized as their representative.

We thus plan to form a broad, democratic, and inclusive political leadership to be called the Syrian National Initiative (SNI) and that will be based on the Cairo conference documents that the Syrian opposition agreed to in July 2012. The SNI will support the internal opposition and communicate with it and will be active on regional and international fronts.

The SNI also guarantees that there will be no political vacuum following the regime’s removal from power.

The recognition of this responsibility by all Syrian opposition factions will allow the SNI to work toward realizing the following goals:

1. Preserving the national sovereignty and independence of Syrian decisions
2. Preserving the nation’s geographic unity
3. Preserving the people’s unity
4. Emphasizing that the process of devising a political solution can only begin after Bashar al-Assad and the symbols of his regime are brought down and those responsible for the spilling of Syrian blood are brought to trial
5. Emphasizing the importance of establishing a civil, pluralistic, and democratic Syria

The Syrian National Initiative will also work to:

1. Establish a fund to support the Syrian people
2. Support the Free Syrian Army
3. Administer liberated territories
4. Plan for the transitional period
5. Secure international recognition

To this end, all factions of the Syrian political opposition, representatives of the Free Syrian Army, military councils, revolutionary forces, local councils, and national figures from the provinces will be invited to participate in this proposed initiative and set up the following four bodies:

1. The Initiative Body (which will include representatives from political groups, local councils, and revolutionary forces as well as national figures)
2. A Supreme Military Council (which will include representatives from the military councils and the brigades)
3. A Judicial Committee
4. A transitional government (which will be made up of technocrats)

The proposed project will be discussed in Doha on November 8 in order to arrive at the best possible framework to finalize the project.

50-member assembly

“An alternative to the regime is dearly needed,” Seif, a liberal politician who is battling cancer and was only released from prison in Syria in June, told Reuters.

“We are talking about a temporary period that begins with forming a political leadership until a national assembly that represents all Syrians meets in Damascus, once Assad falls,” The charismatic 66-year old, who has been suffering from cancer for years, said in an interview in Amman.

Unlike previous efforts that failed to come up with a unified leadership, Seif said the Doha assembly will be more inclusive, representing a myriad of religious and activists’ groupings as well as more members of Assad’s minority Alawite sect and Kurdish political leaders.

“We have 10 million Syrians who need everything from housing to security to public services, and a regime we have to take every possible measure to remove to avoid more losses,” Seif said, referring to inhabitants of areas under rebel control or where central authority had collapsed.

He proposes the formation of a new 50-member civilian group that will later choose a temporary government and coordinate with the military wing of the revolt.

He said the 50-member assembly will represent the “effective powers in the revolution” and “be convincing to the Syrian people”, adding that efforts were being made to bring the rebels under a unified military command.

Western, Turkish and Arab recognition of the new opposition structure, Seif said, will help channel anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to the rebels and “decide the battle”.

Seif said independent figures, such as Syrian intellectual Sadeq Jalal al-Azm, would be in the group to lend credibility. Representatives of opposition local councils that are providing services in Syria’s 14 governorates also will be on board.

Lebanon’s independent daily an-Nahar says current SNC chairman Abdelbaset Sida would be asked to name 15 members to the 50-seat assembly, but will probably haggle for a higher number.”

Among the other likely nominees for the assembly are Michel Kilo, Haitham al-Maleh, Abdulaziz al-Khair, Walid al-Bunni, Hassan Abdul Azim, Sheikh Osama al-Rifai, Aref Dalila, Razan Zaitouneh, Dr. Fedaa Hourani and Muntaha Sultan al-Atrash.