The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad is set
to launch “Russia’s war” on the opposition imminently.
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| Lavrov, Clinton and Brahimi |
Leading political analyst and commentator Abdelwahhab
Badrakhan, writing today for pan-Arab al-Hayat, expects the U.S. to
continue sitting on the bench without a sound.
Why did the Russians and Lakhdar Brahimi suddenly try
to hard sell a “political solution” in Syria before bungling the attempt
altogether?
Why did the joint UN-Arab League Special Envoy’s
style metamorphose into Sergei Lavrov’s?
The answer is the U.S.-Russian understanding reached
by the Russian foreign minister and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in
Dublin last December 7.
The U.S. Administration wants to preempt any
development that would force it to ultimately intervene in Syria.
Even the “red line” drawn by Barack Obama on the
regime’s use of chemical weapons has now been blurred. The regime has been made
aware it could use chemical weapons, but only “within designated geographic
parameters.”
U.S. promises of financial aid and advanced weapons
to the Syrian opposition to set up the Syrian National Coalition of
Revolutionary and Opposition Forces proved to be a honeytrap.
All Syrian opposition sources now confirm financial
and military support by other “Friends of Syria,” which started falling off
last August, dried up completely after the umbrella group was formed last
November.
Washington’s priority has invariably been a political
deal between the opposition and members of the government who “do not have
blood on their hands” followed by Assad’s exit, albeit after a few months.
Moscow’s argument was that a settlement without Assad
and his cooperation is unworkable and the priority is to restructure the army
and security services.
After some hesitation, Washington tasked Moscow to
convince its ally, Assad. Moscow agreed to fulfill the job in the context of
the Geneva Declaration, with the added U.S. proviso that the proposed
transitional government be given “full executive powers.”
Brahimi took the U.S.-Russian understanding and
communicated to Assad in Damascus. The latter chose to first discuss his answer
with Russia first. Feisal Mekdad flew to Moscow to say his boss refuses to
transfer his powers and is bent on completing his term and on running for
reelection in 2014.
Moscow tactlessly hastened to throw the ball into the
Syrian opposition’s court. In response, it got an undiplomatic answer from the
opposition leader.
After marginalizing the opposition, Russia and Brahimi
asked it to sit at the conference table with a regime they knew was unwilling
to compromise.
Having played the first round of middlemen with the
U.S. sitting on the bench totally silent, Lavrov and Brahimi upped the ante.
They blurted out scaremongering remarks about “hell,”
“Somalization” and “100,000 deaths,” knowing all too well the regime doesn’t
care and the opposition won’t be cowed.
With neither the regime nor the opposition ready for
a deal, the Russians and Americans plan to resume their consultations on Syria.
Most probably, they will agree to sit back and let the two sides fight it out
until sheer exhaustion forces them to sit and talk.
What does that mean in practice?
It means Russia telling the regime to forge ahead and
give the opposition a taste of “hell.”
Before long, the regime will be fighting Russia’s
war.
Moscow wants the regime to go all out and change the
balance of forces on the ground in the weeks leading up to its new round of
consultations with Washington. It will accordingly cover the regime’s overt reliance
on Iran and Hezbollah.
Will the U.S. administration have something new to
tell Lavrov and Brahimi at the new round of talks? No.
Washington said what it wanted to say on the eve of
the “Friends of Syria” conference in Marrakesh, when it designated Jabhat
al-Nusra a terrorist organization.
The designation expressed the U.S. position on Syria
much more accurately than its recognition of the opposition Coalition the next
day.
The Obama administration’s approach is to avoid the Iraq
experience in Syria.
Washington, which almost regrets toppling Saddam
Hussein, is very nearly reprieving Assad.
Look for America!
