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| Syria's 14 provinces or governorates |
On the day the Syrian opposition said it deferred a
decision on forming a government-in-exile at its meeting in Istanbul, a
newspaper close to Syria’s regime was anticipating an imminent and gory
government campaign to jettison rebels from three of Syria 14 provinces: Damascus,
“Rif Dimashq” (or Damascus suburbs) and Homs.
The
opposition said in a statement, “After studying the proposals and after
deliberation on the question of creating an interim government, we decided to
set up a five-member committee tasked with consulting with the forces of the
revolution, the Free Syrian Army and friendly countries.”
The
panel – which includes among others, National Coalition chief Moaz el-Khatib,
Syrian National Council head George Sabra and former SNC leader Burhan Ghalioun
-- would also
be tasked with exploring the extent of Arab and international political
and financial commitments needed to make an interim government viable.
The
opposition is due to meet again on January 28 in Paris, along with
representatives of some 20 countries that back the revolt against President
Bashar al-Assad.
But
Assad himself won’t be holding back meantime.
According
to al-Akhbar daily, his
mouthpiece in Beirut, it’s now “back to the battlefront.”
The
paper explains, and I paraphrase in part:
In
light of fresh reports about root changes in the Syrian army’s accomplishments
and operations, and as a new round of diplomacy spurred by forces hostile to
Syria gathers pace, fear of a bloodier conflict is mounting.
Syria
is moving towards a new phase, politically and on the ground. The external
diplomatic ambiance does not augur an impending settlement.
Lakhdar
Brahimi urged “real change” in Syria, but failed to win concessions from either
the regime or the opposition.
On
the ground, the regular army’s efficacy has been going from strength to
strength since the collapse of the rebels’ “Damascus foray.”
Several
sources confirm Military Intelligence played a key role in the army’s recent
successes in the Damascus suburbs and the Homs area.
After
a reassessment of the situation, decisions were made to forsake efforts deemed
futile. As a result, it was decided to abandon certain positions and not to
engage in military confrontations in a range of areas, chiefly in the North.
The
endeavors of players hostile to the Syrian regime are now focused on:
-- Lifting
the Syrian National Coalition’s morale and lobbying for an interim government with
promises of political and financial help.
-- Renewing
the attempt to centralize the armed opposition under
a single military command.
-- Putting on ice the issue of al-Nusra
Front in the hope that all rebel groups would close ranks, particularly in the
rural areas of Idlib and Aleppo.
-- Compensating for the “Damascus foray”
fiasco with high-visibility blasts targeting regime political figures or a military
push that would expand rebel control of this or that area.
On the battleground, reports from
Damascus say regime forces will try to regain full control of the provinces of
Damascus, Rif Dimashq and Homs. The implication is that military operations are
expected to stretch from Eastern Ghouta southward to Qusayr and villages in the
Homs rural area. The outcome of these confrontations will have far-reaching repercussions
in the next stage.
Given the persisting internal split
and intensifying outside pressures, Syria has a rendezvous with a new bloodstained
chapter.
