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An exhaustive analysis
carried out by data specialists on behalf of the UN Human Rights Office has led
to the compilation of a list of 59,648 individuals reported killed in Syria
between 15 March 2011 and 30 November 2012, UN High Commissioner for Human
Rights Navi Pillay said today, Wednesday.
“Given there has been
no let-up in the conflict since the end of November, we can assume that more
than 60,000 people have been killed by the beginning of 2013,” Pillay said. “The
number of casualties is much higher than we expected, and is truly shocking.”
The preliminary
analysis, which took five months to complete, was conducted using a combined
list of 147,349 reported killings, fully identified by the first and last name
of the victim, as well as the date and location of the death. Any reported
killing that did not include at least these four elements was excluded from the
list, which was compiled using datasets from seven different sources, including
the Government.
Each reported death was
compared to all the other reported deaths in order to identify duplicates. The
analysis used manual classifications and a data mining technique called an “alternating
decision tree” to identify the duplicate records. After duplicates were
removed, the combined dataset was reduced to 59,648 unique records of
conflict-related deaths as of 30 November 2012.
“Although this is the
most detailed and wide-ranging analysis of casualty figures so far, this is by
no means a definitive figure,” the High Commissioner said. “We have not been
able to verify the circumstances of each and every death, partly because of the
nature of the conflict and partly because we have not been allowed inside Syria
since the unrest began in March 2011. Once there is peace in Syria, further
investigations will be necessary to discover precisely how many people have
died, and in what circumstances, and who was responsible for all the crimes
that have been committed. This analysis provides a very useful basis upon which
future investigations can be built to enhance accountability and provide
justice and reparations to victims' families.”
“This massive loss of
life could have been avoided if the Syrian government had chosen to take a
different path than one of ruthless suppression of what were initially peaceful
and legitimate protests by unarmed civilians,” Pillay said. “As the situation
has continued to degenerate, increasing numbers have also been killed by
anti-government armed groups, and there has been a proliferation of serious
crimes including war crimes, and -- most probably -- crimes against humanity,
by both sides. Cities, towns and villages have been, and are continuing to be,
devastated by aerial attacks, shelling, tank fire, bomb attacks and
street-to-street fighting. In addition, the increasingly sectarian nature of
the conflict, highlighted in the recent update by the independent international
Commission of Inquiry on Syria, means a swift end to the conflict will be all
the more difficult to accomplish.”
The analysts noted that
60,000 is likely to be an underestimate of the actual number of deaths, given
that reports containing insufficient information were excluded from the list,
and that a significant number of killings may not have been documented at all by
any of the seven sources. The recording and collection of accurate and reliable
data has grown increasingly challenging due to the conflict raging in many
parts of the country.
The analysis -- which
the High Commissioner stressed is "a work in progress, not a final
product" -- shows a steady increase in the average number of documented
deaths per month since the beginning of the conflict, from around 1,000 per
month in the summer of 2011 to an average of more than 5,000 per month since
July 2012. The greatest numbers of reported killings have occurred in Homs
(12,560), rural Damascus (10,862) and Idlib (7,686), followed by Aleppo
(6,188), Deraa (6,034) and Hama (5,080).
Over 76% of the victims
documented so far are male, while 7.5% are female, according to the analysis.
The gender of the victim is not clear in 16.4 percent of cases. The analysis
was not able to differentiate clearly between combatants and non-combatants.
“While many details
remain unclear, there can be no justification for the massive scale of the
killing highlighted by this analysis,” the High Commissioner said. “Unless
there is a quick resolution to the conflict, I fear thousands more will die or
suffer terrible injuries as a result of those who harbor the obstinate belief
that something can be achieved by more bloodshed, more torture and more
mindless destruction. Those people carrying out these serious crimes should
understand that they would one day be brought to justice. The case against them
will only be strengthened by adding more crimes to those already committed.”
“The failure of the
international community, in particular the Security Council, to take concrete
actions to stop the blood-letting, shames us all,” Pillay said. “For almost two
years now, my staff and the staff of the independent Commission of Inquiry have
been interviewing Syrians inside and outside the country, listening to their
stories and gathering evidence. We have been repeatedly asked, ‘Where is the
international community? Why aren't you acting to stop this slaughter?’ We have
no satisfactory answer to those questions. Collectively, we have fiddled at the
edges while Syria burns.”
The
High Commissioner also called for serious preparations to restore law and order
when the conflict comes to a halt. “We must not compound the existing disaster
by failing to prepare for the inevitable – and very dangerous – instability
that will occur when the conflict ends,” she said. “Serious planning needs to
get under way immediately, not just to provide humanitarian aid to all those who
need it, but to protect all Syrian citizens from extra-judicial reprisals and
acts of revenge and discrimination. Investment in a massive stabilization
effort will cost far less than decades of instability and lawlessness such as
those that have afflicted Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, the Democratic Republic
of the Congo and several other states where the transition from dictatorship
and conflict to democracy was given insufficient support.”
