Syria: Hezbollah defending “Iran’s 35th province”

File photos of Hojjatoleslam Mehdi Taeb (top) and parading Hezbollah fighters 

The Syrian opposition’s break with the Islamic Republic of Iran and its Lebanese cat’s-paw Hezbollah is total and has come into the open.

The Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces posted a statement on its Facebook page overnight accusing Iran and Hezbollah of waging open war on the Syrian people.

The statement said in part, “The direct involvement of Iran-backed Hezbollah forces in the killings, crimes and attacks on Syrians—under the pretext of defending the Assad regime – has been well documented since the beginning of the Syrian revolution.

“On top of that came fresh declarations by Iranian leaders, which can only be described as insolent meddling in the Syrian people’s affairs. The patronizing pronouncements amount to a declaration of open war on the Syrian people, such as the call for a rapid deployment force specialized in urban warfare to support the Assad regime.

“Iran and its lackey Hezbollah’s involvement in Syrian affairs, and their flagrant aggression against Syria’s people and national sovereignty are inadmissible and violate international law.

“The Syrian National Coalition strongly condemns repeated attacks on Syrian territory by Hezbollah fighters. The attacks are driven by Iranian declarations that smack of hateful colonial undertones. They expose the Iranians’ loss of political rationale and their advocacy of ideological rubbish.”

According to the Syrian opposition, fighting began on Saturday as Hezbollah fighters, in control of eight Syrian border villages, tried to move into three adjacent ones -- Burhanieh, Abu Houri and Safarja -- in the Qusayr region of Homs held by Syrian Free Army (FSA) forces.

Regime helicopters fired rockets at rebel positions to support the advancing Hezbollah unit, which included pro-Assad militiamen recruited from the villages it controls, residents said.

"The Hezbollah force moved on foot and was supported by multiple rocket launchers. The FSA had to call in two tanks that had been captured from Assad’s army to repel the attack," Hadi al-Abdallah of the Syrian Revolution General Commission told Reuters by phone.

FSA spokesman Louay al-Miqdad called the Hezbollah operation an "unprecedented invasion", according to Beirut’s independent daily an-Nahar.

"Hezbollah's invasion is the first of its kind in terms of organization, planning and coordination with the Syrian regime's air force," Miqdad was quoted as saying.

An unnamed Hezbollah spokesman confirmed three Shiite deaths, but without saying whether they belong to the group.

AFP news agency quoted the spokesman as saying the dead fighters had been acting "in self-defense.”

Several Syrian rebels were also killed in the clashes, which came days after a senior commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards was killed travelling from Syria to Lebanon.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Revolutionary Guards commanding officer Hassan Shateri was ambushed and killed by rebels while heading to Beirut from Damascus (see my February 14 post, “Iran point man killed heading from Syria to Lebanon).

Shateri was a veteran of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, and served in Afghanistan before going to Lebanon, where he posed as “Hessam Khoshnevis,” head of an Iranian agency set up to help rebuild Hezbollah-controlled areas devastated by the 2006 war with Israel.

On the eve of Shateri’s burial last Friday in his hometown of Semnan, some 150 kilometers east of Tehran, Hojjatoleslam Mehdi Taeb, a senior cleric from supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s inner circle, said Syria is so strategic to the Islamic Republic that it is considered as Iran's 35th province, and that losing Syria would result in losing Tehran.

He told university student members of the Basij militia: “Syria is the 35th province [of Iran] and a strategic province for us. If the enemy attacks us and wants to appropriate either Syria or Khuzestan [in western Iran], the priority is that we keep Syria.... If we keep Syria, we can get Khuzestan back too. But if we lose Syria, we cannot keep Tehran."

Taeb – head of the Ammar strategic base, which is focused on cyber war and soft war -- also pointed to the Islamic Republic's support of Syrian militias through Iranian advisors inside the country.

He explained, “Syria had an army, but did not have the ability to manage a war inside Syria’s cities. It is for this reason the Iranian government suggested that, to manage an urban war you must form a Basij…The Syrian Basij was formed with 60,000  [members] of the Party of God (Hezbollah), who took over the war on the streets from the army."

Two Lebanese columnists, writing today for an-Nahar, slam both Hojjatoleslam Taeb and Hezbollah.

Rajeh el-Khoury says, “Blatant Iranian interference in Syria comes after a series of complicities in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE and at the side of Yemen’s Houthis. They also come after a long history of threats and claims to the right of being the region’s éminence grise at the price of poisoning intra-Muslim relations and mobilizing Sunnis to confront Shiites in the 35^th province.”

Ali Hamadeh believes the “inevitable consequence” of Hezbollah’s “diabolic” and “criminal” involvement in the killing of Syrians will be to bring the conflict to the “heart of Lebanon” at the cost of innocent Lebanese lives.

Damascus 2013 is more sinister than Baghdad 2003

By Ghassan Charbel*

“What is taking place in Syria,” he said, “is much more alarming than what was taking place in Iraq 10 years ago. The nature of the struggle is different and more complex. The area is more vulnerable than it was prior to the removal of Saddam Hussein. In Baghdad, America was spontaneous and determined. In Damascus, America is listless, hesitant and soft. In Baghdad, Tehran wanted to see Saddam removed and was preparing to reap the benefits of his eclipse. In Damascus, Tehran is so involved in the confrontation, as though it is defending its project and the fringes of its role and its prestige. Region change is dawning from Damascus, not Baghdad.”

He went on, “Arab safety valves are nowhere to be found. Morsi’s Egypt is sinking in unrest. Maliki’s Iraq is drowning again in a crisis of its components. Assad’s Syria is the theater of a brutal battle mixing together revolution, internecine strife, regional faceoff and international emasculation. With such givens, you can’t but expect the worst.”

I was startled by the Arab official’s words and asked him to elaborate further.

He said the most dangerous thing regarding Syria is the foreclosing of retreat. The opposition cannot backtrack after the fall of nearly 100,000 dead and material damages estimated at $100 billion. The regime too cannot do an about face after what it did. The regime also hinges on Bashar al-Assad. That’s why Lakhdar Brahimi returned frustrated from Damascus because he broached the taboo subject.

My interlocutor felt Brahimi’s last trip convinced Assad’s enemies at home and abroad that change was needed in the balance of forces on the ground. This simply means a new round of funding and arming. Damascus is heading to a major showdown liable to produce additional victims, ruin and refugee waves.

He said Russia, which went too far in its support of the Syrian regime, finds it difficult to backpedal.  Besides, the door key is in Tehran, which acts as though the Syrian regime’s fall is a catastrophe, not a loss. That’s why it is putting its full weight in the ongoing conflict. It believes its exit from Syria will perturb its presence in Iraq and Lebanon and dent its image at home. Ties with Assad are the biggest, longest and most costly Iranian investment in the region. Cutting the Syrian stretch of the line running from Tehran to Beirut via Baghdad means Iran losing its mission. And the mission is more important than the bomb that could defend a bigger undertaking.

Hezbollah too cannot go into reverse. Fall of the regime would downgrade Hezbollah from regional to local player and rub out the word “steadfastness” from its vocabulary.

The official drew my attention to a very precarious development. The chief of staff of the Free Syrian Army said the FSA would henceforth deal with Hezbollah fighters in Homs as “mercenaries, not prisoners of war.” Whoever looks at the map would appreciate the implications of such words i.e. that Syrian-Lebanese and Sunni-Shiite relations are likely to be severely tested once the regime falls.

The official said the “more difficult episode” of the Syria crisis is approaching.

If the regime survives in part of Syria, it means moving from regime risks to map risks. Fall of the regime by knockout means an unstable Syria for years. Al-Qaeda sinking root in Syria is very dangerous. All scenarios confirm Damascus is more treacherous than Baghdad was.

The official did not miss asking me about events in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley town of Arsal.

*Ghassan Charbel is the Lebanese editor-in-chief of the Saudi-owned pan-Arab daily al-Hayat. The original Arabic wording of his editorial appears in today’s edition of al-Hayat.

A propos Iran, the U.S. and Saudi foreign policy

U.S. and Iran footballers: A lesson for politicians?

Saudi foreign policy has to grapple with two key problems à propos change in the region and the world order.

One is Iran, which is not exactly a new problem. The other is the Obama Administration forging ahead with its strategic pivot from the Middle East to East Asia.

Saudi academician and writer Khalid al-Dakheel, in his weekly column today for the Saudi-owned pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, believes the two problems have taken new dimensions.

He explains:

After gaining a foothold in Bilad al-Sham through its alliance with the Syrian regime, Iran proceeded to plant Hezbollah as its military arm in Lebanon.

Ironically, this was done under the smokescreen of “resistance” (to Israel) and a Saudi-Syrian “understanding” on Lebanon.

Having then bagged Iraq from U.S. occupation forces and enthroned its surrogates in Baghdad, Iran is now out defending the Syrian regime and striving to be the paramount power in the Gulf as a step to expand its influence throughout the Arab Mashreq.

Iran’s aim is to be the nation-state of the region’s Shiites and to be recognized as such by Washington.

To realize this dream, after ensnaring Syria and Iraq, Iran has to face the bigger challenge posed by Saudi Arabia and Egypt – more so Saudi Arabia because it is the Gulf’s richest country, sits on Iraq’s doorstep and is home to Islam’s two holiest mosques (al-Masjid al-Haram in Mecca and al-Masjid al-Nabawi in Medina).

Iran is aware that undermining Saudi Arabia is a tall order: the ethnic, sectarian and historical impediments are simply formidable and countless. That’s why Tehran chose instead to surround the kingdom with Iranian clients and hotbeds of unrest – northward in Iraq, southward in Yemen and eastward in Bahrain and Kuwait.

Egypt is as impregnable as Saudi Arabia, except that Egypt lies further away geographically and is currently beset with political and economic problems. This explains why Iran is trying to lure Egypt away from the Gulf with promises of financial aid and a collaborative solution for Syria.

With the Syrian regime now on its last legs, Iran can recognize the expiry of its sell by date, cut its losses and facilitate the transfer of power in Damascus. Or, it can continue backing the regime at the price of walking away with no more than a piece of a fragmented Syria.

Iran’s predicament is also the region’s. Therein lies the future significance of Saudi foreign policy and Washington’s pivoting from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific region.

President Barack Obama’s pivot toward the Asia-Pacific region is all about China.

While the U.S. was off fighting its wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, China’s amazing growth and the promise of its huge and expanding market turned the Asia-Pacific region into the global economy’s center of gravity.

A report last November by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) expects the United States to cede its place as the world’s largest economy to China as early as 2016.

Washington is equally concerned by China more than doubling its declared military spending from 2006 to 2012, roughly in keeping with economic growth.

There are two unmistakable signs Obama is forging ahead with steps to pivot U.S. foreign policy from the Middle East to Asia.

One is his perseverance in “leading from behind” on Syria. The other is keeping his “extended hand” to Iran.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, who served as U.S. National Security Advisor under President Jimmy Carter, says the U.S. can deter and contain a nuclear Iran, such as it is still deterring North Korea from using its nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan.

Also, confirmation of Chuck Hagel, Obama’s pick for defense secretary, remains blocked because he is soft on Iran and previously called for talks between Washington and Tehran without preconditions.

It seems America’s strategic shift to Southeast Asia, the accumulation of Arab crises and the Arab’s impotence in solving albeit one of them are pushing many Americans to support a political deal with Iran.

Strangely, all U.S. talk of such an understanding with Tehran makes no mention of Saudi Arabia.

So how would Saudi Arabia react? Could it face such an eventuality with its same old foreign policy tools and premises?

Saudi foreign policy needs to update its perceptions and tools to match up with America’s strategic rebalancing, Iran’s agenda and the current winds thrashing the Arab world, not to mention the sea changes in Saudi society, the region and the world order.

Can the foreign policy adopted at the height of the Cold War by King Saud and King Faisal, God bless their souls, remain unchanged after 50 years?

Clearly, the policy that failed in Iraq and Syria, was half-successful in Yemen and Bahrain and missed setting up stable and enduring alliances in the region needs reappraisal and revision.

Iran, “Ayatollah Morsi” and Obama’s extended hand

Portraits of the writers by Tehran Times (top) and image grabs of their letter as published by Fars

While Barack Obama keeps his hand extended to talk Iran into scaling back its nuclear ambitions, Tehran is urging Mohamed Morsi to set up an Islamic theocracy in Egypt.

Some 17 Iranian Establishment figures have formally offered to help the Egyptian president duplicate the Islamic Republic of Iran’s system of governance in his country.

Their written offer, penned in Arabic, was made public today by Iranian news agency Fars.

The 17 Iranian scholars, ulema and politicians include former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, currently the senior advisor on International Affairs to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; former parliament speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, notable Shiite figure Ayatollah Seyyed Mostafa Mohaqiq Damad, and Farhad Rahbar, chancellor of the University of Tehran.

The gist of what the Iranians figures tell Morsi is this:

We witnessed the Iranian people successes ensuing from the Islamic Revolution’s victory under the late Imam Khomeini. We also witnessed the experiences Iran gained in its bitter struggles against Zionism and World Arrogance in the 34 years since the Islamic Revolution.

From such a perspective, we put forward the following:

• The developed world’s material successes have been innumerable, but it still faces countless crises for straying from the veracity of Islam.
• The West is now rediscovering the centrality of religion and the importance of upholding its role and values in society.
• The principles of Islam are a reference point to all problems whether at national or international levels.
• Faith and belief in divine power allow humans to be successful and happy in life and in their afterlife.
• Any system of governance that formulates its policies, builds its institutions and devises its plans under divine guardianship is bound to succeed.
• The Islamic Republic of Iran set forth on the basis of the centrality of Islam and its permeation of all government organs and affairs of its executive, legislative and judicial branches.
• The Islamic Republic of Iran’s system of governance was put to a referendum in April 1979, when a 99.2% majority approved it. Seven months later, an overwhelming majority endorsed the ensuing constitution.
• The Iranian people have not looked back in the 34 years since. They struggled against World Arrogance and Islam’s enemies, maintained their independence from Western and Eastern powers and supported the downtrodden all-over the world, chiefly the oppressed Palestinian people.
• Iran’s political, economic, cultural and building accomplishments have been spectacular. Despite the eight-year (1980-1988) war (with Iraq) and economic and political sanctions, Iran has eradicated poverty in its urban and rural areas and made impressive scientific and hi-tech advances. It stayed the course throughout – first under the late Imam Khomeini and now under Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• Official statistics -- by UNESCO on the eradication of illiteracy, by Science-Metrix on trade volume and science and technology productivity, and by UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) on industrial development -- attest to Iran’s sensational progress.

Iranian scholars, ulema and scientists reiterate their readiness to put the wealth of their knowledge and expertise at the service of your esteemed government and the honorable Muslim people of Egypt.

In light of the aforesaid, we urge Your Excellency -- as a wise doctrinaire at the helm of a country proud of its past and glorious Islamic civilization – to make Islam the underlying bedrock of running your state affairs.

Extended hand

Editorially, columnist Rajeh el-Khoury, writing today for the independent Lebanese daily an-Nahar, says he is astounded how U.S. President Obama is sticking to the policy of the “extended hand” to Iran without Tehran giving the slightest indication of “unclenching its fist.”

Obama has been trying to make diplomatic headway with Iran over its nuclear program for ages. The result has been a more defiant Iran.

Khoury suspects Washington and Tehran have been playacting all along.

“It is in America’s vital interest to keep the Iranian scarecrow in the Gulf and the region,” Khoury writes. Proof is a recent congressional report showing that weapons sales by the United States tripled in 2011 to a record high, driven by major arms sales to Gulf Arab allies concerned about Iran’s regional ambitions.

When the P5+1 – the U.S., China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany – meet next with Iran, “Saeed Jalili, the Islamic Republic’s chief nuclear negotiator, and Wendy Sherman, his American counterpart, will share a big laugh because the playacting continues with matchless success.”  

Syria opposition sets peace settlement parameters

Syria’s opposition umbrella group headed by Moaz al-Khatib has formally set out its parameters for a political settlement in Syria.

The parameters were spelled out in a communiqué concluding an overnight meeting of its politburo in Cairo.

Following is my own translation of the communiqué as posted in Arabic this evening on the group’s Facebook page:

All members of the Syrian National Coalition’s provisional political bureau met in Cairo Thursday to discuss the latest events at the political level and the field of battle. They appraised internal [Syrian], regional and international developments.

Since the National Coalition is eager to end the Syrian people’s suffering and safeguard its national unity, spare our country the horrors of devastation meted out by the criminal regime, and preempt foreign intervention and its risks, the provisional political bureau believes the outlines of a political solution must be based on the following caveats:

1. Realize the aspirations of the Syrian people’s revolution for justice, freedom and dignity, and their quest to spare the country further destruction, ruin and threats and to uphold Syria’s territorial, political and social integrity through transition to a civil, democratic and egalitarian regime.

2. Bashar al-Assad and the decision-making security-military leadership responsible for the country’s current plight are outwith the political process. They won’t be party to any political settlement in Syria. They must be held accountable for all the crimes they committed.

3. The sought-after political solution and country’s future is inclusive of all Syrians, counting all honorable members of state institutions, Baathists and other political, civic and social forces who were not involved in crimes against the Syrian people. Bashar al-Assad and his regime’s central figures cannot possibly represent them.   

4. Any (political) initiative based on the above must include a definitive timeframe and a clearly stated objective.

5. Member States of the UN Security Council -- chiefly the Russian Federation and the United States of America -- must secure appropriate international support and adequate safeguards to make this process possible. They would have to adopt its possible outcome through a binding UN Security Council resolution.

6. We expect the Russian Federation to translate into practical steps the statements of its officials, i.e. that keeping Assad in power is not Russia’s goal. Any Russian understanding with Syrians must be through the legitimate and true representatives of the Syrian people. Russia must acknowledge that no agreement will be implemented so long as the Assad regime and its central figures remain at the helm.

7. The Iranian leadership must recognize that its support of Bashar al-Assad is pushing the region to sectarian strife, which won’t serve anyone’s interest. Iran should realize Assad and his regime have no chance anymore to remain in power. It is impossible for them to prevail over the Syrian people’s will.

8. Our friends and brethren should recognize the key to a political solution ending the bloodshed, bringing stability and safeguarding state institutions lies in changing power balances on the ground. This means supplying the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces and the Joint Chiefs of Staff with all the means to do so.

Iran point man killed heading from Syria to Lebanon

Hassan Shateri (top) and AFP photo of his portrait on the coffin carried by Tehran mourners

Iran has lost its point man in Lebanon and Syria.

He was presumably ambushed and killed by Syrian opposition forces while travelling overland to Beirut from Damascus.

Prominent Iranian clerics, military commanders and politicians led mourners at his mid-day funeral at a mosque in north Tehran today.

They included Hojatoleslam Ali Saidi, representing Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Revolutionary Guards chief Ali Jaafari, Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani and Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi.

The semiofficial Fars news agency identified the slain Revolutionary Guards commanding officer as Hassan Shateri.

Footage of the service broadcast on state TV showed mourners carrying aloft a coffin with his portrait.

Fars said Shateri was a veteran of the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, and served in Afghanistan before going to Lebanon. He is to be buried Friday in his hometown of Semnan, some 150 kilometers east of Tehran.

In Lebanon, Shateri posed as “Hessam Khoshnevis,” head of an Iranian agency set up to help rebuild Hezbollah-controlled areas devastated by the 2006 war with Israel.

A commander of Syrian opposition forces battling President Bashar al-Assad said the rebel fighters carried out the attack near the Syrian town of Zabadani, a few miles from the Lebanese border.

Damascus receives extended military and intelligence assistance from Iran and Hezbollah as part of the effort to keep Assad in power.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Shateri was shot dead by rebels while heading to Lebanon from the Syrian capital.

"We do not know exactly where he was shot, but we do know that a rebel group ambushed his vehicle while en route from Damascus to Beirut," Britain-based Observatory director Rami Abdel-Rahman told AFP.

Syrian tanker trucks ferrying Lebanese fuel to Assad forces

The Iranian embassy in Beirut said "armed terrorists" killed a man it identified as “Hessam Khoshnevis,” adding that he had been involved in reconstruction work in Lebanon.

The embassy named him as "Hassan Shateri, also known as Hessam Khoshnevis".

It said he was in charge of the Iranian Committee for the Reconstruction of Lebanon set up after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.

Protesters in Lebanon are meanwhile continuing to block the northern border crossing with Syria to stop diesel fuel shipments they say are being used to resupply Assad’s military.

Around 30 tanker trucks carrying fuel from refineries in Tripoli and Zahrani were forced to stop on the Lebanese side of the Arida border crossing between the two countries.

A written statement by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) Wednesday appealed to Lebanese President Michel Suleiman to stop fuel shipments to Assad forces.

FSA spokesperson Louay al-Mokdad later told MTV channel the Unified Judicial Council of the Revolution in Damascus has issued an arrest warrant against Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati, his brother Taha and his nephew Azmi for their alleged role in resupplying Assad’s military with Lebanese fuel.

Syrian opposition looks on the up and up

"New Syria" Ambassador to Qatar, Nizar al-Haraki

Qatar is the world’s first to hand over the Syrian embassy in its capital, Doha, to the Syrian opposition.

The move was announced in a statement by the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, which promptly named Nizar al-Haraki as ambassador.

Haraki, 50, hails from Deraa, cradle of the Syrian uprising, and is an electrical engineering graduate of Aleppo University, where scores of students were killed by MIG airstrikes in mid-January.

Speaking to AFP by phone, Haraki said the Qatari authorities had accepted his appointment.

"I will start work along with two other diplomats," said Haraki.

"Depending on whether they support the revolution, we will decide which former embassy staff members we will keep, and who we will lay off."

Captured al-Jarrah air base

In its statement, the Syrian National Coalition said one of the embassy’s priorities would be to work in tandem with the Qatari Foreign Ministry on issues concerning the travel documents of large numbers of Syrian exiles and refugees.

Human rights chief Navi Pillay says the death toll in Syria is now nearly 70,000. She had given an estimate of at least 60,000 at the beginning of the year.

Russia today confirmed it is still supplying arms to Syria's government. However, the head of the state arms exporter said the supplies did not include attack weapons such as planes or helicopters.

In fighting this week, Syrian opposition forces captured al-Jarrah military air base near Aleppo, where they seized usable MIG fighter jets.

They also overran the country’s strategic al-Furat hydroelectric dam, which they have fought over since July.

The dam is 60 meters high and 4.5 kilometers long and is Syria’s largest. It was built between 1968 and 1973 with help from the Soviet Union.