No longer a Shiite Crescent

Press clipping dated Monday, 13 June 1949

By Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia’s authoritative political analyst, author and kingpin of the impending Al Arab TV news channel, writing in Arabic today for the mass circulation newspaper al-Hayat

When the term “Shiite Crescent” was coined a few years back, it was meant to warn of Iranian expansionism across the Levant.

Nowadays, after the Big Powers’ defeat in the Qusayr battle, Shiite fundamentalism is basking in all the glory of triumph.

With the resulting enlistment of hundreds of Iraqi Shiite volunteers in the war overtly championed by Iran, the Crescent is liable to evolve into a political axis stretching from Tehran to Beirut via Baghdad and Damascus.

The Iranian Oil Ministry will pull out old maps from its drawers to build the pipeline to pump Iranian oil and gas from Abadan (across Iraq) to Tartus.

The Iranian Ministry of Roads and Transportation will dust off the national railways authority’s blueprints for a new branch line from Tehran to Damascus, and possibly Beirut,

Why not? The wind is blowing in their favor and I am not making a mountain out of a molehill.

Tehran has been mulling and airing such projects for years without actually starting them.

But she will, once she settles the Syria war in her favor. It is only natural for her to consolidate victory on the ground by blending her triumphant axis in a singular political, economic and military network.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader or Guardian Jurist of Iran, will realize his dream of delivering his sermon from the pulpit of Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, announcing the attainment of Islamic unity he has long promised.

He will then pompously step down from the pulpit to stroke the forehead of a wheelchair-bound Damascene boy, signaling that forgiveness is the attribute of the strong.

He will then stand next to a group of Syrian Sunni ulema wearing white turbans. There are lots of them, in the mould of Mufti Ahmad Hassoun, ready to oblige.

He will shake and raise their hands as camera clicks and flashlights capture the historic moment.

The Guardian Jurist will promise that his next prayer – or his successor’s. if he is sufficiently humble – will be in Jerusalem.

But he won’t mention the Golan. He knows the Russians are now the key component of the UN monitoring force separating Israeli and Syrian forces on the Heights.

Because Takfiris are still mounting desperate operations here and there, he realizes that Syrian troops and Hezbollah fighters are busy keeping the peace in predominantly Sunni cities, towns and townships.

In that afternoon, a huge reception will be held in a newly rehabilitated Damascus palace still showing the scars of war to mark the signing of a mutual defense pact by the presidents of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

The Guardian Jurist will stand wreathed in smiles in the background, perhaps in awe at the likely appearance of the Hidden Imam to bless the agreement.

We turn southward to Riyadh and find the capital calm and dusty but concerned the battle was settled in favor of Bashar al-Assad and his partners.

Riyadh is conscious the clean sweep is not Bashar’s but that of Iran and the old Khomeini scheme.

Bashar becomes the representative of Vali e-faqih in Damascus.

Riyadh is also alarmed by Iranian activity in its surrounding area.

It fears for Bahrain. The Houthis have won uncontested control of more than half the old North Yemen. South Yemen, Saudi Arabia’s traditional ally, is being gradually eaten away by Iran.

Gulf unity plans have dissipated. Some Gulf countries are keen to flatter Iran so as to preserve a modicum of their national sovereignty.

The Arab common market and Fertile Crescent idea evaporated and with it the dream of resurrecting the Hejaz Railway that ran from Istanbul to Holy Mecca across Syria and Jordan.

Even the Europeans are buying the Iranian oil flowing through the Abadan-Tartus pipeline. They are also thinking of linking the European Gas Network with its Iranian counterpart. They have forgotten all about sanctions because the world always prefers to deal with winners.

On the Arab Gulf home front, young men are seething. They feel their governments let them down by failing to face up to the Iranian stratagem. The young men are in a sectarian tinderbox and buckling under economic stress. Extremism is rampant and the security services are busy hunting down extremist groups.

A nightmare, don’t you think?

That’s why I believe Saudi Arabia expressly will not allow Iran to win in Syria.

Iranian presence there proved a burden from the day Hafez al-Assad sealed his alliance with Iran’s Islamic Revolution as soon as it took over power 40 years ago.

Whereas the Syrian regime’s muscle under Hafez left a margin of balance and independence in the partnership, his son submitted totally to the Iranians and Hezbollah.

It is thanks to them Bashar is still alive and ruling a country in ruin. Instead of being their partner, he has become their subordinate.

The implication is that Iran’s presence in Lebanon and Syria now constitutes a clear threat to Saudi Arabia’s national security, and Turkey’s as well.

Consequently, Saudi Arabia must do something now, albeit alone. The kingdom’s security is at stake.

It will be good if the United States joined an alliance led by Saudi Arabia to bring down Bashar and return Syria to the Arab fold. But this should not be a precondition to proceed.

Let Saudi Arabia head those on board.

Let us put aside any misgivings about sequels of the Arab Spring, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s ambitions.

Let the objective be to bring down Assad fast.

The objective is bound to draw together multiple forces ranging from the Anbar tribes to Hamas to Egypt’s Brothers to Tunisia to the Gulf Countries.

That would entice Turkey to partake in the alliance. France could follow. And whether the United States does or does not breeze in is inconsequential. After all, it’s our battle and our security. U.S. security is not on the line. 

Russia ponders Turkey route to Med's warm waters

Putin and Erdogan in Istanbul yesterday

Is President Vladimir Putin amenable to the idea of losing Russia’s naval facility in the Syrian port of Tartus and gaining access to the warm waters of the Mediterranean through Turkey instead?

Murat Yetkin, the influential editor-in-chief of Turkey’s Hurriyet Daily News, mooted the option this morning.

Putin yesterday said Russia is working with Turkey to resolve the ongoing crisis in Syria. He made the comment after his talks with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Istanbul during a one-day visit.

Talking at a joint news conference following the two leaders' meeting, Putin sought to distance himself from Damascus.

Putin said, “We are neither protecting the regime in Syria nor acting as their advocate, but remain worried about Syria’s future.”

He said, “The positions of the Russian Federation and Turkey completely correspond regarding what has to be attained (in Syria), but there is no shared approach as yet on the methods” to realize it.

“We discussed this issue today with our Turkish colleagues, and came up with some new ideas, which require further analysis and planning,” the president said.

Erdogan told the press conference Turkey and Russia shared a “strategic perspective” that has put a stamp on their bilateral ties.

“Our multi-dimensional [agreement] on the Black Sea Basin is the best example of the strategic perspective between the two countries,” Erdogan said.

The two leaders were anxious to send a message that differences over Syria will not undermine deepening relations that are underpinned by a rapidly growing trade relationship.

During the Russian president's visit, a number of trade and diplomatic agreements were signed, and a commitment was made to almost triple the current 30-to-40 billion dollars in trade to $100 billion.

Turkish entrepreneurs have made investments of more than $10 billion in Russia, said Erdogan.

He said Turkish construction companies have taken on 1,400 projects worth $40 billion in Russia. Erdogan also praised Russia’s $700 million capital flow to Turkey for the construction of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant project.

A senior Turkish official told The New York Times Moscow was "softening" its "political tone" and would look for ways of getting Assad to leave power.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said for the first time Moscow was ready to evacuate thousands of its citizens from Syria in case of emergency.

"We’ve got plans for every situation and have got a clear idea where our citizens are located," Bogdanov told the Itar-Tass news agency.

He said the Russian embassy has been in contact with Russian citizens in various areas of Syria. They are mostly Russian women married to Syrian nationals or diplomatic staff.

"In any case, several planes will be needed. There are capabilities for that," he added.

According to Bogdanov, Russian citizens may also leave Syria via Lebanon or Jordan.

"I don't see any real problems with that now," he said, adding: "Due to the situation, we recommend Russian citizens not to go to Syria."

The United Nations also began pulling out non-essential staff from Syria and the European Union said it reduced activities in Damascus "to a minimum" as regime forces bombarded opposition strongholds with artillery and airstrikes in an increasingly desperate attempt to keep rebel forces from advancing into Damascus, the capital.

Hurriyet Daily News editor Murat Yetkin suggests this morning that Moscow could lose its naval base in Tartus with Assad’s exit, but it could gain much more valuable outlets to the warm waters of the Mediterranean through Turkey. In his opinion:

On the eve of the Crimean War in 1853, Russian Tsar Nicholas described the declining Ottoman Empire as “the sick man of Europe.”

The Russian empire’s quest for “warm waters” was adopted as strategic policy a century earlier under Peter the Great. In Soviet times, Josef Stalin espoused the same strategy.

“That is why the Turkish straits and the Turkish-Soviet border (as the north-east-southwest corridor down to the Mediterranean) was considered a key strategic point of Western defense,” once Turkey joined NATO in 1952.

Putin can consider himself the inheritor of Peter the Great’s policy of gaining access to the warm waters of the Mediterranean Sea -- not through war, but rather through cooperation for more trade.

Russia may lose a naval base in Tartus with the Assad regime’s downfall, “but it gains much more valuable outlets to southern markets through cooperation with Turkey.”

Both the visiting Russian president and Erdogan voiced a shared “strategic” view of Putin’s visit. That is an impressive plus for the prime minister of a NATO country.

“Erdogan and Putin signed 11 cooperation agreements, from the opening up of Turkish and Russian cultural promotion houses to a $20 billion nuclear power plant that will be built in Akkuyu, on the Turkish Mediterranean coast.

“Erdogan said both countries targeted raising bilateral Turkish-Russian trade to over $100 billion dollars - from the current nearly $40 billion - over the next seven to eight years.

“Russia is already Turkey’s number one trading partner (on cumulative basis it is the European Union) and the main trade item in this balance is Russian gas and oil. Turkey is dependent on Russian gas for its electricity production more than Russians themselves, and this dependency might become deeper with the sanctions on Iran. Turkey is eyeing Russian gas and oil to compensate for the loss from Iran over the winter months.

“With nearly 4 million Russian tourists rushing to Turkish Mediterranean resorts every year and ever increasing Turkish-Russian marriages, this long-range relationship makes discrepancies over Syria, for example, smaller than they actually are.

“For the first time, Putin was very clear in saying Russia was not an advocate for the regime in Syria, and one may expect a quicker disintegration of the Damascus regime following these words.

“The spirit of the new Turkish-Russian cooperation is to trade and to leave all problematic areas aside, (to be dealt with by diplomats later). The motto may not be ‘make war,’ but rather ‘make trade.’”

Syria fires four messages by downing Turkish jet

Photo from the Turkish daily Hurriyet

“Suspense” is the predominant impression you get from reading regional news and views the morning after Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom jet over its airspace.

The buzzword is “suspense” because political analysts and opinion-shapers are hazarding conflicting guesses on the likely response of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad poked him in the eye with a blunt stick.

A Syrian military spokesman said an unidentified aerial object violated the country’s airspace and was shot down by anti-aircraft artillery, hitting it one kilometer off the country’s Mediterranean coastline, Syria’s state-run news agency SANA reported.

The plane turned out to be a Turkish fighter jet, and was dealt with in keeping with Syrian law, a Syrian military spokesman explained.

He also stated that Syrian forces are helping the Turks search for the two missing Turkish pilots.

Erdogan issued a statement, after an emergency security meeting in Ankara, saying a decisive response will be taken once all the facts about the incident are known.

Abdelbari Atwan, publisher and editor-in-chief of the London-based pan-Arab daily al-Quds al-Arabi, believes Erdogan’s talk of a “decisive response” after the emergency security meeting in Ankara “implies that the matter is extremely serious and warrants some kind of retaliation (by Turkey)… We could be on the brink of a regional war.”

By downing the jet, says Atwan, “the Syrian leadership meant to send four strong messages”:

• The first message “warns Turkey not to overreach itself in its support of the Syrian opposition by supplying it with advanced weapons and by providing safe passage to Muslim extremists seeking to bring down the Syrian regime.”
• The second tells NATO “and the United States in particular that Syria is not Libya and that any recourse to the use of force against it -- including aerial ‘carpet bombing’ -- won’t be consequence-free.”
• The third message is addressed to “some Arab countries, chiefly in the Gulf, that are arming the opposition via Turkey.”
• The fourth and last is for the public at home and is meant “to make up for the defection of a Syrian pilot with his MIG-21 to Jordan and show that cohesion of the regime is inviolate and ready to foil the ‘external plot’ to bring it down.”

To Atwan’s mind, the Syrian leadership could not have gone this far in the escalation “without getting a green light from its Russian counterpart.” He says the fighter jet went down near the Russian naval base in Tartus, “and might have been brought down by Russian air defense systems there.”  

Accordingly, “will the Syrian leadership succeed in dragging Turkey, and thus the United States, into a mistimed pre-emptive war they want to avoid at all costs pending the U.S. presidential elections and preparations for taking out Iran’s nuclear facilities?”

“It is noteworthy,” Atwan writes, “that Turkey’s response to the downing of its fighter jet was muddled, much as its reaction to stepped up Syrian support for Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)” terrorist attacks on Turkish targets. 

What is certain is that “Syria is not Libya and Assad is not Gaddafi. The former has an impressive arsenal comprising S-300 (Russian surface-to-air) missiles while the latter could not intercept s single Western plane except the one over Lockerbie -- that’s if he were the one who brought it down after all.” 

Syria: Houla children slain, Ban whines, Moscow ferrying arms

Slain children and woman (right) in Houla

The opposition Syrian National Council declared three days of national mourning and urged the UN Security Council to take deterrent measures against the Syrian regime under Chapter VII in reaction to a horrific massacre in the Homs suburb of Houla.

At least 88 people were killed in Friday’s outrage, almost 50 of them women and children.

BREAKING NEWS: UN mission chief General Robert Mood said in a statement the monitors had counted more than 92 bodies in Houla, and called the incident a "brutal tragedy." The statement said, 

"This morning UN military and civilian observers went to Houla and counted more than 32 children and over 60 adults killed."

The SNC “called on the Free Syrian Army to prevent regime militias from reaching civilian areas by blockading roads by all possible means.” It also pushed for an urgent Arab League Ministerial Council meeting to cut all residual diplomatic and economic ties with Damascus.

The SNC said some 300 were wounded in Houla, as government forces shelled and attacked the town. It said some victims were killed by mortar shelling, while knives slaughtered others.

It reported on its website Houla “was shelled for 12 consecutive hours. The shelling was followed by a massacre carried out by shabiha thugs and regime mercenaries… (who) slaughtered women and children. Some families were able to escape with the help of activists, while the fate of other families remains unknown.“

The SNC’s acting-president Burhan Ghalioun told reporters, "What happened in Houla is a systematic crime intended to stoke sectarian fires in the country. UN envoy Kofi Annan must head to Houla as soon as he arrives in Syria so he can witness firsthand what happened there. He said, "I told UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and the monitors I spoke to that Kofi Annan cannot continue his mission after the massacres that have taken place, as he visits Damascus without batting an eyelash."

The army and security forces killed at least 20 other civilians elsewhere in Syria after tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets after Friday prayers.

U.N. leader Ban Ki-moon warned Friday the risk of all-out conflict was growing in Syria where groups fighting President Bashar Assad now control "significant parts of some cities.”

"There is a continuing crisis on the ground, characterized by regular violence, deteriorating humanitarian conditions, human rights violations and continued political confrontation," he said in his 13-page report dated Friday, which is to be debated by the UN Security Council next week.

He said UN monitors noted “continued Syrian army troops concentrations and heavy weapons in population centers…

“There are continuing reports of a stepped-up security crackdown by the authorities that has led to massive violations of human rights by Government militias, including arbitrary arrests, torture, enforced disappearance and summary execution of activists, opponents, and defectors…

“There are continuing reports that thousands of Syrians are being detained in a network of Government-run facilities of different kinds… The pace and scale of access to, and release, of detainees is unacceptable given the commitment of the Government…

“There has also been some, but not enough, improvement in entry and freedom of movement of journalists in Syria… However, the Government still requires that journalists seek specific permission in advance for in-country travel, which is often not forthcoming. They are often only permitted short stays that do not facilitate in-depth reporting…

Anti-Assad demonstrators in Binnish near Idlib yesterday

“The obligation of the Syrian government to respect the freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefully is clearly not being observed… Credible information indicates that, after the observers left (the Aleppo University on 9 May 9, 2012, Government and irregular elements fired tear gas and live ammunition in the air, raided the campus and killed between two and five students in addition to arresting up to 200….

“While demonstrations are carried out in many other parts of the country, many have reportedly been broken up with the use of live ammunition and lethal force, and arbitrary arrests of protesters. It is clear that the broad context of intimidation and human rights violations does not constitute an environment in which citizens can express their opinions or demonstrate freely…

“Most elements of the (Annan) six-point proposal have yet to be implemented.”

Ban said UN efforts to end the conflict had seen only "small progress", adding that the "overall situation in Syria remains extremely serious".

"Professor Katsman" is said to be carrying Russian weapons to Tartus

On the day Ban also urged Member States not to arm either side in the conflict, a Russian cargo ship loaded with weapons was reported to be en route to Syria and due to arrive at Tartus port this weekend.

One diplomat told Reuters a Maltese firm, which is owned by a Cypriot company that is owned by a Russian firm, owns the vessel, which is called “Professor Katsman.”

The tug of war over the UN vote on Syria

From my press archives

As I went to bed last night, I thought the theme of my Tuesday post would have to be the diplomatic tug of war over the UNSC Syria resolution.

While keeping my 24-year-old dog walking routine at dawn this morning, I could not imagine Moscow vetoing a second resolution on Syria within 12 weeks.

The draft resolution in its current form endorses the Arab League’s Syria peace plan for President Bashar al-Assad transferring full powers to his second-in-command (see “Full text: The Arab League’s Syria resolution,” 23 January 2012).

I still think compromise language will be found to amend the draft and overcome Russian objections before the vote later this week.

The changes, I believe, will be sufficient to persuade Moscow to allow a watered down resolution to pass by a majority vote. It can do so by abstaining or voting for or against without using its veto.

However, a leading political analyst in today’s Arab press doesn’t share my view. He makes clear Russia will hold its ground because it is fighting a “self-preservation” battle it can’t afford to lose.

"To Moscow's mind," Lebanese commentator Amine Kammourieh explains, “the issue is not Syria. The issue is Russia per se and the Russian leadership’s fate and future.”

Shooting down my anticipation, Kammourieh writes:

Syria is not so much a theater where Russia is defending a regime. It is a theater where it is vigorously warding off a comprehensive attempt to contain it and curtail its influence.

Russia suspects the Moslem Brothers’ likely sway in post-Assad Syria would drive the Islamic tide to its shores in the Caucasus and Ural regions, if not to the heart of Moscow.

But fear of the Islamic genie knocking at the Kremlin’s door is not looming. Nor is it perturbing Russia’s decision-makers today.

Russia also does not wish to see its historic Turkish adversary gaining strength and expanding its sphere of influence southward and eastward. That would tempt Turkey to look northward, where Turkish ethnicity is deep-rooted in places like Dagestan, Chechnya, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Here again, it is not Turkey that is unnerving the Russian bear at the moment.

At stake is not a Russian naval base in the warm waters of Syria’s Tartus seaport either.

Only Russia proper can cause a tense Russian reflex. Only Russia’s higher national interests, which are above all else, can rouse the Russian leadership.

The Kremlin’s current stalwarts believe their fate and future are on the line because of ceaseless provocations by the West. So when their survival is at risk, they become mindful that neither material sweeteners nor paltry deals nor insignificant regional roles can foster or save them.

Washington blundered when it hastened to support the outcry against Vladimir Putin after the parliamentary elections in the hope that an early Russian Spring is in the offing. By so doing, Washington provoked the Kremlin into thinking the Russian regime was the West’s target after Syria’s – or maybe the third if Iran’s were the second.

It is not surprising then to see Russia produce a similar challenge. The Syrian theater being today the most volatile in the game of nations and roles, the faceoff becomes more telling.

Russia cannot afford to lose the Syria game, where it is “playing all or nothing.”

In Syria, Russia is fighting a self-preservation war exclusively led by the Putin-Medvedev-Lavrov triumvirate. The room for maneuver is hence skintight.