Past Assad’s speech, 5 scenarios ahead for Syria

 Abdelbari Atwan, publisher/editor of the London-based pan-Arab daily al-Quds al-Arabi, takes issue today with Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad for likening his bloody crackdown to surgery and denying his forces had a hand in the Houla massacre.

Referring to the two issues, Assad said in his speech to parliament, which lasted more than an hour on Sunday:

• “When a surgeon in an operating room... cuts and cleans and amputates, and the wound bleeds, do we say to him your hands are stained with blood? Or do we thank him for saving the patient?”
• “What happened in Houla and elsewhere are brutal massacres that even monsters would not have carried out… If we don't feel the pain that squeezes our hearts, as I felt it, for the cruel scenes -- especially the children -- then we are not human beings.”

Atwan retorts in his editorial today:

• President Assad goofed “when he said the surgeon stains his hands in blood to save the patient because the Syrian surgeon he had in mind could hemorrhage the patient without saving him.”
• “I totally agree with Assad’s description of perpetrators of the Houla massacre as ‘monsters.’ But he did not acknowledge the monsters were Syrians loyal to the regime and protected by its military and security forces… If he is so sure of their innocence, all he has to do is allow an independent international investigation into the massacre and undertake to hold accountable all those responsible.”

The West has taken advantage over global outrage over Houla to reach out to Syria's ally and protector Russia to join a coordinated effort to resolve the 15-month-old conflict that has claimed well over 10,000 lives.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is today hosting European Union chiefs in St. Petersburg for his new presidency’s first summit to discuss, among other matters, Russia's Syria policy.

Speaking Sunday in Stockholm, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged Russia to help start a political transition in Syria, the outcome of which she says should be Assad's ouster.

“Assad's departure does not have to be a precondition, but it should be an outcome so that the people of Syria have a chance to express themselves,” she said.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has spoken of the ongoing political transition in Yemen as an example of something that might work in Syria.  That, according to Clinton, would require much more active participation from Moscow.

 "It took a lot of time and effort with a number of countries who were involved at the table working to achieve a political transition.  And we would like to see the same occur in Syria," she said.

FIVE SCENARIOS  

Political analyst Nassif Hitti, guest writer of today’s think piece titled “Syrian scenarios” for the Saudi-owned pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, believes the Yemen example is one of five likely dénouements in Syria.

The scenarios are:

1) Disintegration and crisis management, whereby the process would be chaperoned by a diplomatic drive to try and extinguish the unrest fire. “Syria would enter the stage of drawn-out social conflict, when violence would ebb and flow until the emergence of areas – no matter how small or for how long – outside of state authority. State institutions would degenerate and the state itself would become weaker than the regime. All manner of armed violence would hold sway in the Syrian arena, with no peaceful or definite political solution in sight.”

2) Afghanization comparable with the struggle against the Najibullah regime in Afghanistan. Persistence of violence as the only way to settle the crisis, coupled with the absence of a political horizon, would amplify the revolution’s militancy and radicalism. With Styria sitting on the region’s strongly sectarian volcanic fault line, the Syrian arena would mobilize and magnetize international jihadist fighters. Should this scenario take hold, an Arab Afghanistan would be implanted in the Arab Mashreq.

3) Iraqization, which would feature the fall and breakdown of state authority with time and the outbreak of internal strife among the country’s original components under enticing “national” slogans. The slogans would lure and mobilize one particular component but fail to build bridges with its counterparts. Internecine strife among the initial constituents would reign supreme, leading the state to wear away and killing the chances of a viable “national” solution.

4) Lebanonization, or civil war as in Lebanon, with neighborly or distant meddlers and a Lebanese-style system of democratic governance rooted in consensual sectarianism. The system would be vulnerable and prone to external meddling. We’ve already seen the Lebanonization of the regime in Iraq and we can catch a glimpse of the Iraqization of Syria’s situation.

5) Yemenization, or a political transition as underway in Yemen despite the obstacles and fundamental differences between Syria and Yemen concerning the role of outside forces and the tenacity of the two regimes. Besides, Yemenization means the head of state bowing out and the regime staying in place, albeit with minor changes. Such a scenario remains brittle and susceptible to culminate in one of the four aforementioned dénouements.

Putin and Hollande spar over Assad

Putin and Hollande sparring in Paris (Photo from bbc.co.uk)

In Paris yesterday, Russia’s Vladimir Putin disputed a remark by France’s François Hollande that any solution to the Syrian crisis requires Bashar al-Assad to step down or be removed.

A few hours later in Geneva, Putin’s representative voted against a resolution by the UN Human Rights Council calling for a special inquiry into the May 25 Houla massacre that left 108 people, including 49 children and 34 women, dead. The resolution was approved by 41 votes in favor, three against (Russia, China and Cuba), and two abstaining (Uganda and Ecuador).

In the resolution, Council members deplored the “outrageous killings” in Houla and emphasized the continued failure of the Syrian authorities to protect and promote the rights of all Syrians.

The Council called for the International Commission of Inquiry on Syria to conduct a “transparent, independent and prompt investigation into violations of international law with a view to hold to account those responsible for widespread, systematic and gross human rights violations, including violations that may amount to crimes against humanity.”

In addition, the Council asked the Commission of Inquiry to publicly identify, if possible, those responsible for the atrocities and to submit a report on the results of its investigation at its next session, which will be held from June 18 to July 6.

It also requested that joint special envoy Kofi Annan brief the Council at the said upcoming session.

The Commission of Inquiry was established at the Council’s second Special Session and it presented its first report on 28 November last year, concluding that the substantial body of evidence it had gathered indicated that gross violations of human rights had been committed by Syrian military and security forces since the beginning of the Syrian uprising in March 2011.

In its update to the Council in May, the Commission of Inquiry said the Syrian Government has so far not provided it with access to the country.

In addition, it said the Syrian army and security services committed most of the serious violations as part of military or search operations in locations thought to host defectors or armed people, and those seen as rebel supporters.

Before Friday’s vote, the top UN Human Rights official, Navi Pillay, urged the UN Security Council to consider referring the case of Syria to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

In Paris meanwhile, Putin and Hollande clashed over Assad’s ouster.

“We have disagreements over who is responsible for the violence and over the need for Assad to leave,” Hollande told a joint press conference after a working dinner. “The actions of the Syrian regime are intolerable… Any solution to the crisis requires the departure of Assad,” the French president said

“Why do we think that if we push someone from the current leadership away from power, prosperity will arrive there tomorrow?” Putin retorted.

“What is happening in Libya, in Iraq? We all know what kind of a tyrant [Muammar] Gaddafi was. Maybe. But do you know what was happening in Sirte when militants entered the city? Why do you not write about that? Has humanitarian wellbeing settled there?” Putin asked journalists.

Putin said Russia, which supplies arms to Syria, “has no special military or economic ties” to the country and that Assad visited Paris (under Nicolas Sakozy) more than Moscow.

"We are not for Assad, not for his opposition, we want to reach a situation where violence ends and a large-scale civil war is averted," he said.

The Russian president said it was "counterproductive" to declare Annan’s peace mission a failure, but declined to say how long it should be given to work.

The Russian foreign ministry Friday backed Damascus claims that the Houla massacre was the work of “terrorist gangs” intent on undermining Annan’s mission.

However, Putin took a different line, appearing to concede that government forces had at least played a part in killing civilians, but saying the rebels were guilty of similar acts.

"How many peaceful civilians were killed by the opposite side? Did you count? The count goes into the hundreds there too. Our goal is make peace between the sides of the conflict."

Asked whether sanctions should be toughened against Syria, Putin said the UN Security Council should first of all address the issue.

“I think you know sanctions don’t always work effectively,” he said.

Putin said Russia would accept “everything acceptable to the Syrian people.”

“For that acceptable solution to be found,” he said, “violence needs to be stopped on both sides, all conflicting parties be seated at the negotiating table and a situation created when they are able to agree with one another.”

He said no one might resolve state structure or country administration issues for the Syrian state.

“If you think you can decide that for other nations, go to Cairo now and take part in the Egyptian presidential elections. You can’t do that! Nor can you or anyone else do that in Syria,” Putin said.

In his column today for the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, Abdul Rahman al-Rashed, head of Alarabiya TV news channel, says, “Not only on Syria, but Russia’s stance has been negative on most crucial issues.”

Waiting for positive signals on Syria from Moscow is like building castles in the air, he says. “All the justifications we give the Russians in the hope they would shift their Syria position are unwarranted. They will only do so after Assad’s downfall.”

Rashed says, “I can draw a long list of comparable positions taken by Russia on major international problems, like Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Libya and now Syria. Russia stood by the villain until the end in all these cases.” Moscow’s support is also what encouraged Iran to overreach itself in its nuclear program, causing a host of serious international and regional problems in the Gulf.

Recommended link:

What Russia taught Syria

Syria crisis: "Try Russia’s ambassadors next"

Vladimir Putin file photo

France, Canada, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany, Italy, Spain, Bulgaria, Turkey and the Netherlands have all expelled Syrian ambassadors and diplomats this week over the Syrian regime’s May 25 Houla massacre.

The expulsions mean nothing to Damascus, says columnist Rajeh al-Khoury, writing Thursday for the independent Lebanese daily an-Nahar.

He recalls how President Bashar al-Assad’s foreign minister, Walid al-Muallem, told a press conference in June 2011: “We will forget Europe is on the map, and we will turn to the east, to the south and all directions that extend a hand to Syria. The world is not only Europe…”

Muallem later erased the Arab League and Gulf countries from the Arab map as well, Khoury remarks.

Annan told reporters after his talks with Assad in Damascus this week, “We are at a tipping point. I appealed to him for bold steps now – not tomorrow, now – to create momentum for implementation of the (six-point) plan.”

According to Annan, Assad’s response was that “success of the plan depends on the end of terrorist acts and those who support them and the smuggling of weapons.”

Effectively, Khoury writes, the Syrian president sent Annan packing -- to Lebanon and Jordan, for instance.

Notwithstanding the Houla massacre perpetrated by regime forces and documented by UN peacekeeping chief Herve Ladsous, or the global expulsions of Syrian diplomats, Russia is still blocking UN Security Council measures or sanctions against Syria.

Khoury thus wonders, “Without having to expel Russian diplomats from their capitals or even withdraw their own diplomats from Moscow, when do Arab and Islamic countries plan to summon the Russian ambassadors for consultations over the bias of Russia, which is seeking to regain its hegemonic status albeit at the price of a civil war in Syria?”

Political analyst Rosanna Boumounsef, who also writes a daily column for an-Nahar, today says the Houla massacre greatly embarrassed the Russians. They had no choice but to halfheartedly go along with the Security Council press statement blaming the Syrian government for attacking residential areas of Houla with artillery and tank shelling and also condemned the close-range killings of civilians there.

Remarkably, she notes, the Arab League and the Arabs generally seem totally marginalized on Syria. “For instance, the Arab League Council of Ministers will not be meeting on Houla before next Saturday, when differences among members states of the UN Security Council did not prevent them meeting on the same issue last Sunday.”  

Boumounsef says all eyes will now focus on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s meetings with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin and French President Francois Hollande in Paris this week and U.S. President Barak Obama at the G20 summit in Mexico in June. All three Western leaders will surely be trying to shift Putin’s stance on Syria.

But what are the chances of them succeeding?

MOSCOW

Konstantin von Eggert, a commentator and host for Russia's first 24-hour radio news station Kommersant FM who was diplomatic correspondent for Izvestia and later the BBC Russian Service Moscow Bureau Editor, ponders those chances in his new weekly column for RIA Novosti.

Egert writes:

Moscow did not protest, but rather joined in signing the UN Security Council statement condemning the massacre of civilians in the Syrian town of Houla. Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov told his British counterpart William Hague that the survival of the Assad regime is not as important as stopping the violence in Syria. But has there really been a change of heart?

For now, the evidence is pretty slim. Official Moscow still blames both the opposition and the government forces for the bloodshed, while simultaneously actively peddling the Syrian regime’s propaganda line that it is at war with “foreign-sponsored terrorists.” Russian diplomats hint that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are supplying arms and money to the rebels. Rumors that yet another freighted ship, loaded with Russian arms, was heading toward the Syrian coast surfaced as recently as last week. Still other reports indicate that there was a sharp fall in Russian diesel fuel supplies to Damascus.

The signals are contradictory at best. It is clear, though, that the essence of Russian policy toward Syria remains the same: no regime change. In this respect, the Russian line is dictated even more by Vladimir Putin’s deeply held conviction that the West is out to get all the regimes it considers to be unfriendly than by his wish to protect Russia’s interests in Syria – mostly the naval station in the port of Tartus and contracts to supply arms to Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Not that the latter are completely unimportant, but it seems that the Russian president uses the Syrian example to prove that Russia will never allow anyone, including the UN, to decide who is going to rule which country. The Kremlin’s deeply held view of sovereignty as an unlimited right for political regimes to do as they please inside their states is one of the cornerstones of Russian foreign policy, and it has been especially dominant since the war in Libya. Putin feels that the West duped Russia into de facto sanctioning international intervention in Libya, and seemingly vowed never to let it happen again. This may be a vow he will not be able to keep.

As the violence escalates in Syria, and as the Syrian dictator shows no sign of abandoning his methods, Russia’s favorite approach to crisis resolution looks ever less likely to succeed. Moscow would have liked to be among the several mediators ensuring a Yemeni-style easing of Assad out of the presidential chair and replacing him with one of the less notorious regime figures. This was the solution in Yemen, where President Ali Abdullah Saleh was given a ticket to honorable retirement after 34 years in the presidential palace in Sanaa. His vice president succeeded him. But the intensity of civil war in Yemen is incomparable to what goes on in Syria. In this poor Arabian state the armed forces effectively split, prompting the sheikhs and the politicians to sit at the negotiating table in order to avoid a civil war 50 years down the line.

Not so in Syria, where, supported by Moscow and Beijing, the Assad clan thinks it can ultimately suppress the opposition and appease the country, although at a high cost. Western countries, reluctant as they are to apply a military solution, may be left with nothing to do but use some kind of military measures against the Assad regime. Most of the other means of applying pressure have already been used to no avail. It may have seemed impossible just a month ago, but today it looks increasingly likely that a new “coalition of the willing” may well be cobbled together in order to put an end to the bloodshed. To say that this would be a risky endeavor is to say nothing. However, ultimately there is little doubt that the Syrian army will be no match even against a coalition of second-tier NATO allies.

The Kremlin will never sanction a Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force. But, as a senior Russian diplomat told me a few weeks ago, “If the West wants to burden itself with Syria, well, we cannot prevent it from doing so. But the Western countries will then be wholly responsible for the outcome.” The United States and the EU seem to be nudging closer to the notion that they have to be true to their own values to stay in the Middle Eastern game. Moscow can afford to step aside. However, Moscow will still have to be prepared to pay a serious price in whatever remains of its prestige in the region.

Houla accounts eclipse Annan and Assad

The Houla massacre has totally eclipsed UN-Arab League envoy Kofi Annan’s talks today with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus.

The UN helping count Houla bodies (Photo from bbc.co.uk)

Jihad el-Khazen, a renowned and veteran Arab journalist who is usually softspoken, says Houla marks the end of Assad.

“There are bodies of 35-to-50 children who were either shot or knifed to death,” the former editor-in-chief of the Saudi-owned pan-Arab dailies Asharq Alawsat and al-Hayat writes today in his column for the latter.

“I don’t see the outside world, whether Arab or European, remaining mum this time. Public opinion wants more than words from leaders.

“I can see two possibilities, but not a third: Either the regime disappearing by international consensus à la Yemen or an open-ended civil war. Long term, I frankly can’t see Dr. Bashar al-Assad remaining as president.

“…We’ve had thousands of fatalities so far and more are in the offing. There’s no end in sight for the Syrian crisis. But the Houla massacre marks the point of no return for the regime and its men.”

Ghassan Charbel, al-Hayat’s current editor-in-chief, writes in his editorial today, “Damascus is not accustomed to international envoys coming to question its doings on Syrian territory. It didn’t accept that previously, whether the envoys carried warnings or words of advise. Syria was used to receiving envoys soliciting its help to control this or that regional fire. That stage is gone. Syria is now an ailing state.”

Charbel continues, “The Syrian government couldn’t have shut out Annan today. It is receiving him, not because he carries a magic panacea for its ills but because it wants to keep Russia and China on its side… Syria would not have welcomed Annan had it succeeded in stifling the protests. Russia gave it the time to do so, but it failed… The scenes coming out of Houla have now burdened Syria’s allies. Proof was the UN Security Council condemnation of the massacre. Russia was able to soften the censor but failed to stop it.”

In New York, Human Rights Watch said Annan should push Syria’s government to allow the UN-appointed Commission of Inquiry access into the country to investigate the killing of at least 108 Houla residents. The Syrian government has so far refused entry to the UN-mandated commission. Human Rights Watch also reiterated its call to the UN Security Council to refer the situation in Syria to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Survivors of the Houla attack have meantime spoken to the BBC, which published their accounts on its website.

Here is what it quoted them as saying:

Hamza Omar, opposition activist based in Houla

"The shabiha militias attacked the houses. They had no mercy. We took pictures of children, under 10 years [old], their hands tied, and shot at close-range, from 10cm, just 10cm. By knife they cut their neck, not exactly all his neck, but they make a hole in the neck, a hole in his eyes."

Rasha Abdul Razaq, survivor

"We were in the house, they went in, the Shabiha and security, they went in with Kalashnikovs and automatic rifles.

We asked them what was going on and they told us to go inside. We said: 'What is it? What do you want?’ They said: 'Take everything out, whatever you are hiding,' and we told them: 'We are not hiding anything'.

They took us to a room, and hit my father on the head with the back of a rifle and shot him straight in the chin.

They took us inside and told us to gather in the corner of the room. A man started shooting in the air so we all hid behind my mother. We were about 15 people.

Then they opened fire. After they shot us they started to step on us, and one of the men asked the other to check whether we were all dead. Then they went outside and started shooting in the air.

We were eight siblings, including myself, and my sister-in-law and her son -- she was also six months pregnant. With us as well were my father, my uncle's wife and her daughter, as well as our neighbor and her three kids.

My aunt and her two daughters -- one of them was only injured and she's here with me -- she is one month old, the other one died. We were all in the house.

I survived with my mother and the one-month-old girl and my sister. They shot at us but we survived.

What's going to happen to us? When we hear that the army and the security is coming we start running in the streets, we are afraid they would repeat what they did to us the other day.

There were 100 houses in the neighborhood; they killed everyone inside. They went into people's houses and opened fire and killed them all.”

Rasha Abdul Razaq's mother, survivor

"He [an attacker] said: 'We are from the mountain there, from Fulla,' so I said: 'We are neighbors then, we don't have any terrorists here,' and he said: 'You are the terrorists'. They thought I was dead. It was thanks to God that I survived. He was shooting my kids and yelling. Please get my daughter and me some protection -- we are staying now in different people's houses. We are worried they will liquidate us.”

Anonymous, survivor

"We were opening our houses to them, we thought they were the army, and that they were doing inspections.

One of them told me: 'Go back inside, your turn is next'. I was with my husband and kids. So I got my husband's army service card, I thought maybe they would not bother with us when they see it. But I only survived because one of them shot another by mistake, and he yelled: 'I need help, Fakher was shot'. That kept them busy while we ran away, bullets were flying around us, from the army and the shabiha."

Anonymous, survivor

"When they opened the door, I was still with them in the room. I was standing behind the door of the living room. They took my brothers outside, and I hid on the attic. All I could hear was gunfire; it felt like the whole house was shaking.

I opened the door, and I saw bodies, I couldn't recognize my kids from my brothers. It was indescribable. I have three children; I lost three children. I am shaking, I'm shaking as I'm speaking to you."

Um Mohammed, survivor

"We fled Friday night... They are targeting us with rockets and killing people… We fled through the plantations bombed here, bombed there. I don't know how we made it to the good people. As we walked the snipers targeted us, we hide between the plantations."

Um Abdullah, survivor

"Rockets and bombardments everywhere … I don't have any news of my own family. Why are you not intervening? All the corpses are piling up. If it were a foreign country all countries would have intervened. Come and remove all these corpses from the streets."

Akrama Bakour, Free Syrian Army, Houla

"There were two massacres. The first happened on the Sadd road and started at around 2:30pm on Friday afternoon.

The second massacre happened around 11pm, on the road at the main entrance of Taldou, facing the military security point.

On the Fulla-Taldou road -- 500m to 700m from Fulla village -- this village is supportive of the regime -- a van, two pickup trucks and a group of motorcycles came from that village.

They entered the neighborhood, and met a shepherd at the entrance. His name is Mahmoud al-Kurdi, and he was with his daughter-in-law and his four grandsons. They shot them, killing them all except the daughter-in-law. She was shot in the thigh and belly area but she is still alive.

They then entered the house of Samir Abdul Razaq. He was killed with his children -- Sawsan, Houda, Jouzila and Nada. And his daughter-in-law Halloum El Khlaf, six months pregnant, with her son Ala'a Abdul Razaq, and Samir's sister-in-law Khaloud El Khalaf, and her daughter, Rahaf Al Hussein -- but her daughter Zahra Al Hussein was shot twice but survived.

Samir's wife was hit with the back of the rifles but she fainted and is now still alive. Also among the victims in this house were four kids whose father is Fadi al-Kurdi.

The next house they entered was the house of Qutayba Abdul Razaq, he survived and his one-year-old daughter was injured. He lost his wife and five of his children.

All of those I'm counting died by gunshots, direct fire. They were gathered in one room and shot. There was one kid however whose head was skinned with a knife. The knife was found among the bodies and we have its picture.

The third house belongs to Nidal Abdul Razaq, his wife and four of his children were killed, and he and one of his children are still alive.

Adel Abdul Razaq -- his whole family, a wife and six children.

Mustafa Abdul Razaq was killed with his four daughters, his wife and his daughter in law.

Ayman Abdul Razaq -- all of his six children were killed as was his wife, one of the children was disabled.

Abdul Khalek Abdul Razaq -- his wife and daughter survived gunshots but he lost six other children and his daughter-in-law and her three children.

Abdul Rahman Abdul Razaq lost his wife, his five daughters and 11 grandchildren as well as his six daughters-in-law and four of his sons. He still has two who are still alive; one is called Firas and the other Rateb. This massacre was of 27 people in the same room.

Also killed in the massacre were Yaacoub Hussein Abdul Razaq, Mohammad Shafiq Abdul Razaq, Mohammad Abbara and his daughter Amina and her family of seven."

Houla massacre elicits UN Security Council empty rhetoric

Houla victims' mass grave

The UN Security Council issued the following press statement overnight, which was read by Council President Agshin Mehdiyev (Azerbaijan):

“The members of the Security Council condemned in the strongest possible terms the killings, confirmed by United Nations observers, of dozens of men, women and children and the wounding of hundreds more in the village of El-Houleh, near Homs, in attacks that involved a series of Government artillery and tank shellings on a residential neighborhood.  The members of the Security Council also condemned the killing of civilians by shooting at close range and by severe physical abuse. The members of the Security Council extended their profound sympathies and sincere condolences to the families of the victims, and underscored their grave concern about the situation of civilians in Syria.

Such outrageous use of force against civilian population constitutes a violation of applicable international law and of the commitments of the Syrian Government under United Nations Security Council resolutions 2042 (2012) and 2043 (2012) to cease violence in all its forms, including the cessation of use of heavy weapons in population centers.  The members of the Security Council reiterated that all violence in all its forms by all parties must cease.  Those responsible for acts of violence must be held accountable.  The members of the Security Council requested the Secretary-General, with the involvement of UNSMIS [United Nations Supervision Mission in Syria], to continue to investigate these attacks and report the findings to the Security Council.

The members of the Security Council demanded that the Government of Syria immediately cease the use of heavy weapons in population centers and immediately pull back its troops and its heavy weapons from in and around population centers and return them to their barracks.

The members of the Security Council reaffirmed their strong commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Syria, and to the purposes and principles of the Charter.

The members of the Security Council reiterated their full support to the efforts of the Joint Special Envoy for the implementation of his six-point plan in its entirety and requested him to convey in the clearest terms to the Syrian parties, and in particular the Syrian Government, the demands of the Security Council.”

Syria: Houla children slain, Ban whines, Moscow ferrying arms

Slain children and woman (right) in Houla

The opposition Syrian National Council declared three days of national mourning and urged the UN Security Council to take deterrent measures against the Syrian regime under Chapter VII in reaction to a horrific massacre in the Homs suburb of Houla.

At least 88 people were killed in Friday’s outrage, almost 50 of them women and children.

BREAKING NEWS: UN mission chief General Robert Mood said in a statement the monitors had counted more than 92 bodies in Houla, and called the incident a "brutal tragedy." The statement said, 

"This morning UN military and civilian observers went to Houla and counted more than 32 children and over 60 adults killed."

The SNC “called on the Free Syrian Army to prevent regime militias from reaching civilian areas by blockading roads by all possible means.” It also pushed for an urgent Arab League Ministerial Council meeting to cut all residual diplomatic and economic ties with Damascus.

The SNC said some 300 were wounded in Houla, as government forces shelled and attacked the town. It said some victims were killed by mortar shelling, while knives slaughtered others.

It reported on its website Houla “was shelled for 12 consecutive hours. The shelling was followed by a massacre carried out by shabiha thugs and regime mercenaries… (who) slaughtered women and children. Some families were able to escape with the help of activists, while the fate of other families remains unknown.“

The SNC’s acting-president Burhan Ghalioun told reporters, "What happened in Houla is a systematic crime intended to stoke sectarian fires in the country. UN envoy Kofi Annan must head to Houla as soon as he arrives in Syria so he can witness firsthand what happened there. He said, "I told UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and the monitors I spoke to that Kofi Annan cannot continue his mission after the massacres that have taken place, as he visits Damascus without batting an eyelash."

The army and security forces killed at least 20 other civilians elsewhere in Syria after tens of thousands of protesters took to the streets after Friday prayers.

U.N. leader Ban Ki-moon warned Friday the risk of all-out conflict was growing in Syria where groups fighting President Bashar Assad now control "significant parts of some cities.”

"There is a continuing crisis on the ground, characterized by regular violence, deteriorating humanitarian conditions, human rights violations and continued political confrontation," he said in his 13-page report dated Friday, which is to be debated by the UN Security Council next week.

He said UN monitors noted “continued Syrian army troops concentrations and heavy weapons in population centers…

“There are continuing reports of a stepped-up security crackdown by the authorities that has led to massive violations of human rights by Government militias, including arbitrary arrests, torture, enforced disappearance and summary execution of activists, opponents, and defectors…

“There are continuing reports that thousands of Syrians are being detained in a network of Government-run facilities of different kinds… The pace and scale of access to, and release, of detainees is unacceptable given the commitment of the Government…

“There has also been some, but not enough, improvement in entry and freedom of movement of journalists in Syria… However, the Government still requires that journalists seek specific permission in advance for in-country travel, which is often not forthcoming. They are often only permitted short stays that do not facilitate in-depth reporting…

Anti-Assad demonstrators in Binnish near Idlib yesterday

“The obligation of the Syrian government to respect the freedom of association and the right to demonstrate peacefully is clearly not being observed… Credible information indicates that, after the observers left (the Aleppo University on 9 May 9, 2012, Government and irregular elements fired tear gas and live ammunition in the air, raided the campus and killed between two and five students in addition to arresting up to 200….

“While demonstrations are carried out in many other parts of the country, many have reportedly been broken up with the use of live ammunition and lethal force, and arbitrary arrests of protesters. It is clear that the broad context of intimidation and human rights violations does not constitute an environment in which citizens can express their opinions or demonstrate freely…

“Most elements of the (Annan) six-point proposal have yet to be implemented.”

Ban said UN efforts to end the conflict had seen only "small progress", adding that the "overall situation in Syria remains extremely serious".

"Professor Katsman" is said to be carrying Russian weapons to Tartus

On the day Ban also urged Member States not to arm either side in the conflict, a Russian cargo ship loaded with weapons was reported to be en route to Syria and due to arrive at Tartus port this weekend.

One diplomat told Reuters a Maltese firm, which is owned by a Cypriot company that is owned by a Russian firm, owns the vessel, which is called “Professor Katsman.”