Reading into last night’s Assad interview

Assad taking questions last night

My paraphrasing of this morning’s op-ed penned in Arabic by publisher Abdelbari Atwan for his London-based daily al-Quds al-Arabi:

There are no ifs, ands or buts. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is boxed in security-wise and militarily. But he has broken free on the airwaves.

Midway through the Syria crisis, he said, “We rule on the ground and they rule the airwaves” – meaning his Arab critics controlling the major satellite TV networks and channels.

This has partly changed since he made that remark. Proof is, whenever he gives an interview to a semi-obscure foreign newspaper, his statements are widely circulated by the global media. And the public and intelligence services hasten to read between his lines.

Assad yesterday chose to speak on the occasion of Syria’s Independence Day through Al-Ikhbariya, one of the Syrian TV stations blacked out by the Arab League (through satellite operators ArabSat and NileSat).

The two interviewers had their questions thoroughly prepared in advance. They only had to read them verbatim, since improvisation is not only taboo but also fraught with danger.

Here are the six signals Assad transmitted via the televised Qs & As:

1. “The West paid heavily for funding al-Qaeda in its early stages. Today it is doing the same in Syria and other places, and will pay a heavy price in the heart of Europe and the United States.”

In other words, he is telling the West: We are both facing the same enemy. If you asked me, I am prepared to join hands with you to defeat the terror group.

2. “There is no option but victory. Otherwise it will be the end of Syria.”

He is effectively linking his stay at the helm to Syria remaining whole as a state. He is explicitly raising the possibility of Syria splintering along sectarian and ethnic lines in case the armed revolution succeeded in bringing down his regime.

3. “I cannot believe that hundreds [of rebels] are entering Syria with their weapons while Jordan is capable of arresting any single person with a light weapon for going to resist in Palestine.”

Other than being correct, the remark makes plain that Assad’s media, if not security and military, gloves are off with Jordan.

4. Recep Tayyip Erdogan trades on Turkey to promote himself. His Justice and Development Party’s foreign policy of zero problems with neighbors transmuted into zero politics, zero insight and zero ethics.

The personal attack on Erdogan and the berating of Turkish and Jordanian politics show how much Assad is smarting from Ankara and Amman allowing rebels and arms free movement across their respective Syria borders.

5. Kurds are a natural and integral part of Syria’s social fabric. And unlike the Ottoman Empire, Syria never massacred its Kurdish residents.

That’s a clear attempt to distance the Kurds from Turkey and the West by highlighting their Syrian patriotism.

6. “The attempt is to invade Syria with outside forces from different nationalities… The aim is to make Syria subservient and submissive to the Big Powers and the West, or to obscurantist, extremist forces.”


It is too early to judge whether such scaremongering works or not.

Unlike his previous speeches and interview, President Assad seemed on edge last night. Otherwise he would not have warned the conflict could spread beyond Syria’s borders.

“He slammed the door shut in the opposition’s face, chiefly in the face of the Syrian Opposition Coalition. He said the opposition did not represent political parties, had no presence on the ground, lacked popular support and was not free from outside control.

“All these charges contradict the recent charm offensive of his aides, who were insisting that the regime welcomed dialogue with its opponents.

“Assad yesterday classified his regime opponents either as apostates or mercenaries. Such categorization means he has elected to press ahead with a bloody military solution. All his regime’s previous talk of dialogue was meant to gain time, no more no less.

‘Being offshore does not shame Syria’s independent national opposition figures. Had they chosen to stay in opposition at home, they would have been thrown in jail or put six feet under.

“Chances of a political solution not only receded last night, but also evaporated.

“This means, we are staring down the barrel of a gun loaded for a long war, which can only end with one side steamrolling the other…”

Michel Kilo: A few words about Col. Riad al-Asaad

File picture of Syrian-American activist Farah Atassi with Col. Riad al-Asaad

Michel Kilo, the renowned Syrian Christian writer, opposition thinker and human rights activist, chooses today to write, “A few words about Riad al-Asaad.”

Col. al-Asaad is the man who defected from the Syrian Air Force in mid-2011 to found and then command the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

On March 25, he lost a leg in his booby-trapped car in al-Mayadeen, near Deir Ezzor.

Writing for today’s edition of the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, Kilo says in the main:

I must begin this article by admitting I considered Col. Al-Asaad to be a stumbling block to the FSA’s evolvement and unity.

I thought he was self-centered and wanted to remain at the FSA’s helm despite lacking the military qualifications.

I never shared my opinion of Col. al-Asaad with anyone. But each time his name was mentioned, my bad impressions of him would flood back to my mind.

Worse still, I used to think he was being manipulated by external intelligence services -- whether regional or Arab -- and that he was fronting for meddlers in Syrian affairs, if only to sustain “his” army.

I was apprised that efforts to wrest the FSA from the colonel’s grip were always being frustrated by his maneuvering ability and by the appreciable inroads he made in the FSA.

My overall impression of the man, in other words, was totally negative.

I thought he epitomized corruption in the military echelon such as you would find in the political echelon of the Syrian National Council and Syrian Opposition Coalition.

Suddenly, the fighting forces within and outwith the FSA were restructured and Col. Al-Asaad was removed from his command of the opposition army and totally sidelined.

What was the man’s reaction? And how did he prove his true mettle?

Col. al-Assad swiftly disproved the idea he was an egocentric and self-serving FSA commander.

Once sidelined, he did not bump heads with anyone. He did not disparage a soul. He did not form a caucus to fight his corner and help him recoup his lost authority.

He did not contact a single politician or officer to complain or bemoan his bad luck.

Once removed, he accepted to step down from the helm and simply sped to the battlefield, where he proved himself to be a proud and honorable nationalist for whom public interest supersedes self-interest.

The man stepped down and enrolled as an unknown and nameless soldier in the battle for freedom.

We started hearing his news on occasion. We would hear he was in the Idlib countryside, then in Aleppo, then in the countryside of Hama and later in Hama city proper.

Last we heard was an attempt on his life. The Assad regime was bent on getting rid of him, even after he became an anonymous foot soldier in the resistance army.

Col. al-Asaad’s comportment and actions proved me and his other doubters wrong when he turned his back on preeminence and a command and control position to join the people’s fight for liberty and democracy.

The leg Col. al-Asaad lost crowns him leader of his country’s freedom fighters.

Pointers of Washington going soft on Assad

Haytam Manna' (right) who met Lavrov in Moscow March 11 is now in the U.S.

The oscillating compass needle of Washington’s Syria policy stabilized this week on seven signals.

I singled out one.

Raghida Dergham today lists the other six in her weekly think piece for pan-Arab al-Hayat.

So let me start with hers.

Filing for al-Hayat from New York, the American-Lebanese seasoned political analyst high spots her six:

1. A reversal of Obama One’s interpretation of the June 2012 Geneva framework concerning Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s role in a political transition. Obama Two’s new Secretary of State John Kerry is now saying, “We want to see Assad and the Syrian opposition come to the table for the creation of a transitional government according to the framework that was created in Geneva.”

2. A preemptive blow to the GCC partners in the countdown to the March 26-27 Arab summit in Doha after the Saudi-Qatari push to describe Assad as having lost his legitimacy and chosen to destroy the country in order to hang on to power.

3.  A submission to the Russian position that Assad is a “red line.” The hope is that Kerry’s concession to the Russians will be counterbalanced by concessions they can win from the Syrian regime.

4. A dawn of contradictions, rashness or a distribution of roles involving the United States, the United Kingdom and France. Kerry designating Assad by name as kosher interlocutor is irreconcilable with the positions of his British and French counterparts and allies in the UN Security Council. Kerry’s position is equally at odds with Hillary Clinton’s.

5. A shot in the arm to the mission of Syria troubleshooter Lakhdar Brahimi, who wants to dissociate the Assad Gordian knot from the commencement of dialogue and negotiation.

6. A pull of the rug from under the Syrian National Coalition’s feet in that Kerry’s bolt out of the blue risks splintering SNC ranks and forcing the resignation or dismissal of its leader Moaz al-Khatib.

My seventh signal of the U.S. policy shift:

Within 72 hours of his talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, Syrian dissident Haytham Manna’ – who is outwith the SNC and is a strong critic of the Free Syrian Army -- landed in the United States for presumed talks with its National Security Council and State Department officials.

Here’s how State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland handled questions about Manna’s visit in her press briefing yesterday:

Q.: There’s a Syrian opposition delegation --

MS. NULAND: (Sneezes.) Excuse me.

Q.: Bless you.

Q.: Bless you.

Q.: -- that will be in town later this week, or maybe next week, with – headed by Mr. Manna’. Any meetings they are holding here at this building?

MS. NULAND: This is a different Syrian opposition group, or this is some – or representatives from the SOC [Syrian Opposition Coalition]? I’m not sure I know which meeting we’re talking about.

Q: He – no, no. Mr. Manna’ is not with the SOC.

MS. NULAND: I will have to check on that one. I don’t know about that meeting.

Q.: Is there a delegation of the SOC?

MS. NULAND: No. We haven’t yet, as we said yesterday, set dates with them for their visit to Washington.

Q.: I just wanted to follow up. Are you in contact with Mr. Haytham Manna’? He’s a quite a national figure in Syria – resides in France, I think.

MS. NULAND: I would guess that Ambassador Ford and his team do have contact with him. If that is not the case, we’ll let you know.

But overnight Manna’ himself posted the following on his Facebook page:

A delegation of Syrians will be visiting New York on March 13-15 and Washington on March 17-20 in pursuit of peace. The delegation, associated with The Democratic Civil Alliance (DCA) that emerged as a follow up to the “Geneva Declaration” of January 29. It represents a broad coalition committed to non-violence, democracy, pluralism and non-sectarianism and unites around a clear political plan for a negotiated solution in Syria based on the Geneva Communiqué of June 2012. Delegation members are seeking meetings with policymakers, experts, diplomats, UN staff, media and NGOs.

The DCA, considered to be one of the largest and most influential within Syria, brings together well-known Syrian human rights activists, professionals, political parties, and civil society groups, many of who have worked within the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change and Building The Syrian State current. Sharply critical of the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad and his violent repression, these Syrians are also critical of the increasingly militarized rebellion, the foreign arms flowing to both sides of the military conflict, and the Islamic fundamentalist influence within the rebel military forces. The Democratic Civil Alliance brought together all these forces around very solid and clear plan for negotiated political solution. They are reaching out to all Syrian players, political, civil society or even military players to join this alliance to find a safe solution for the country that puts an end to the violence that started spilling over the borders and is forming the perfect nurturing environment for extremism.

The mainstream international media tend to ignore the large secular and democratic movement within Syrian society and the complex multi-religious and multi-cultural nature of Syria, where there is broad opposition to a post-conflict Islamic government and fear of reprisals and of ongoing conflict after the fall of the dictatorship. The delegation reflects this perspective and aspires to find the broadest international support for its political plans. The three-member team has important political roles in the Syrian internal political scene.

Delegation members:

Dr. Haytham Manna’ has been a Syrian human rights advocate for over three decades. Manna was born in Syria and studied medicine at the University of Damascus. He now lives in Paris where he practices medicine and is the lead external spokesperson for The Democratic Civil Alliance. He has won awards for his human rights work from, among others, Human Rights Watch and the U.S. National Academy of Sciences. He is co-founder of the Arab Commission for Human Rights and has served in leading roles in several other human rights organizations. He is the president of the National Coordination Body for Democratic Change in exile and the vice-president of the Syrian-based branch of the organization.

Dr Rim Turkmani is a founding member of the Building The Syrian State current which has made prominent cease-fire plans, worked to organize peacemaking groups at the local level and cooperated with UN Special Representatives Kofi Annan and Lakhdar Brahimi to promote a negotiated political solution. She is also a member of the executive committee of The Democratic Civil Alliance

She is an Astrophysicist at the Imperial College in London and is a specialist in the history of Arabic/Islamic science and its influence on the West. She has published many papers and books both on scientific and historical topics. She is the founder and co-chair of The Damask Rose Trust, a UK-based charity that supports development and education in Syria.

James Paul, senior advisor at Global Policy Forum and author of Syria Unmasked (Yale Press), and Mel Duncan, advocacy director of Nonviolent Peace Force, will host the visit. Both attended the Geneva Conference on Syria in January.