Syrian Coalition comes back from the dead

From top left, clockwise: Michel Kilo, Farah Atassi, Fayez Sara and Samira Masalmeh

The National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces came back from the dead by closing ranks overnight and adding 43 new members to its general assembly.

It took the Coalition a full week of political wrangling and horse-trading at meetings in Istanbul to expand its general assembly.

The assembly swelled from 63 members on the May 23 opening day of its session to 71 members by May 27 and to 114 members – eight of them women -- on the session’s closing day early this morning.

The total number of National Coalition members is now 114, acting chief George Sabra told reporters, adding that the general assembly has now adjourned until June 12, when it would reconvene to elect a Coalition president.

The eight members voted in on May 27 were Christian thinker and liberal bloc leader Michel Kilo, Syrian-American activist Farah Atassi, Jamal Suleiman, Alia Mansour, Noura el-Amir, Ahmad Abulkhair Shukri, Ayman al-Aswad and Anwar Badr.

The 43 members co-opted overnight, Sabra said, are “15 from the Chief of Staff of the Free Syrian Army, 14 from al-Hirak al-Thawri (the Revolutionary Movement inside Syria) and 14 others.”

Eight of the “14 others” belong to Kilo’s liberal bloc. The rest include two independents, two representing the Local Coordination Committees and two belonging to the Syrian National Council.

The star newcomers on Kilo’s list are Fayez Sara and Samira Masalmeh, the first woman to become editor-in-chief of Syria’s state-run daily Tishreen. She was fired after giving an interview to the satellite station Aljazeera in which she held the security forces responsible for the killing by regime forces of 37 protesters in Deraa on April 8, 2011.

Sabra said the group had agreed a "plan for the transitional period", but did not elaborate.

The group had also set up agricultural, education and health committees to try and mitigate the humanitarian crisis in Syria, he added.

S-330s, MiGs and Apples

On the international front, Russian media are adamant today that Moscow has not yet delivered advanced S-300 missiles to Syria, despite rather vague Syrian indications to the contrary.

The Russian business daily Vedomosti said it was unclear whether or not the air-defense systems would be delivered this year, while the daily Kommersant reported the S-300 missiles would only be delivered in the second quarter of 2014. According to Kommersant, the systems would need another six months of testing and training before they become operational.

An arms industry source also told Russia’s Interfax today Moscow is unlikely to deliver a shipment of S-300s to Syria before the autumn. The source also indicated the timing of the delivery of the arms, which has alarmed Western governments, would depend on the development of the situation in Syria.

President Bashar Al-Assad didn't say S-300s have already begun arriving in Syria, Fox News reported last night.

Gen. Kornukov (top) and the MiG-29

It noted two different transcripts of the Al-Manar interview that were released, one in which Assad claims Syria already received the S-300, and a second one released later in which he used more careful, general language.

The second transcript was inconclusive and in it, Assad says, "There are many arms agreements between us and the Russians from a long time. The Russians are committed to their agreements. All that was agreed with Russia will be implemented and part of it has been already done. We and the Russians are in agreement and we will continue to be like this."

Former Russian Air Force Commander General Anatoly Kornukov told Interfax Syria needs at least ten S-300 divisions to fully protect its airspace.

“Our specialists,” he said, will also have “to train Syrian colleagues if they receive such systems. But everything will depend on the diligence of those trained. But the most minimal period of training is half of a month or a month.”

But the head of Russian aircraft maker MiG said separately Russia was counting on providing Syria with 10 MiG-29MM2 fighter planes, and was discussing details with a visiting Syrian delegation.

At the same time, the United States yesterday relaxed restrictions on the sale of mobile phones and other communications devices, software and services to Iran.

A five-page document by the Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has authorized the following transactions, effective immediately:

• The exportation or re-exportation, directly or indirectly, from the United States or by US persons, wherever located, to persons in Iran of fee-based services incident to the exchange of personal communications over the Internet, such as instant messaging, chat and e-mail, social networking, sharing of photos and movies, Web browsing, and blogging.
• The exportation or re-exportation, directly or indirectly, from the United States or by US persons, wherever located, to persons in Iran of consumer-grade Internet connectivity services and the provision, sale, or leasing of capacity on telecommunications transmission facilities (such as satellite or terrestrial network connectivity) incident to personal communications.

The shift marks the first time Apple's iPhone can be exported legally to Iran.

The newly relaxed rules have been interpreted as an effort to counter Tehran’s efforts to “silence its people” before the June 14 presidential elections, which are two weeks away.

Really?

I wonder.

Michel Kilo: A few words about Col. Riad al-Asaad

File picture of Syrian-American activist Farah Atassi with Col. Riad al-Asaad

Michel Kilo, the renowned Syrian Christian writer, opposition thinker and human rights activist, chooses today to write, “A few words about Riad al-Asaad.”

Col. al-Asaad is the man who defected from the Syrian Air Force in mid-2011 to found and then command the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

On March 25, he lost a leg in his booby-trapped car in al-Mayadeen, near Deir Ezzor.

Writing for today’s edition of the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat, Kilo says in the main:

I must begin this article by admitting I considered Col. Al-Asaad to be a stumbling block to the FSA’s evolvement and unity.

I thought he was self-centered and wanted to remain at the FSA’s helm despite lacking the military qualifications.

I never shared my opinion of Col. al-Asaad with anyone. But each time his name was mentioned, my bad impressions of him would flood back to my mind.

Worse still, I used to think he was being manipulated by external intelligence services -- whether regional or Arab -- and that he was fronting for meddlers in Syrian affairs, if only to sustain “his” army.

I was apprised that efforts to wrest the FSA from the colonel’s grip were always being frustrated by his maneuvering ability and by the appreciable inroads he made in the FSA.

My overall impression of the man, in other words, was totally negative.

I thought he epitomized corruption in the military echelon such as you would find in the political echelon of the Syrian National Council and Syrian Opposition Coalition.

Suddenly, the fighting forces within and outwith the FSA were restructured and Col. Al-Asaad was removed from his command of the opposition army and totally sidelined.

What was the man’s reaction? And how did he prove his true mettle?

Col. al-Assad swiftly disproved the idea he was an egocentric and self-serving FSA commander.

Once sidelined, he did not bump heads with anyone. He did not disparage a soul. He did not form a caucus to fight his corner and help him recoup his lost authority.

He did not contact a single politician or officer to complain or bemoan his bad luck.

Once removed, he accepted to step down from the helm and simply sped to the battlefield, where he proved himself to be a proud and honorable nationalist for whom public interest supersedes self-interest.

The man stepped down and enrolled as an unknown and nameless soldier in the battle for freedom.

We started hearing his news on occasion. We would hear he was in the Idlib countryside, then in Aleppo, then in the countryside of Hama and later in Hama city proper.

Last we heard was an attempt on his life. The Assad regime was bent on getting rid of him, even after he became an anonymous foot soldier in the resistance army.

Col. al-Asaad’s comportment and actions proved me and his other doubters wrong when he turned his back on preeminence and a command and control position to join the people’s fight for liberty and democracy.

The leg Col. al-Asaad lost crowns him leader of his country’s freedom fighters.

Big Powers seek table partners for Moaz al-Khatib

Syrian Revolution artwork by Manar Qanah

Moaz al-Khatib’s startling, six-week-old “personal” offer of talks with representatives of President Bashar al-Assad risks undoing the Syrian National Coalition he leads.

The SNC politburo and assembly promptly and formally dismissed the proposal he made in late January (see my posts of Feb. 15 and Feb. 22).

But the suggestion is not going away and remains very much alive.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters at the State Department yesterday:

It is inevitable and true of every single opposition in any kind of circumstance like this that there are tensions and differences of opinion as they find their footing, and there’s no surprise in that. So we have to work quietly and effectively with the international community. There are lots of people involved and engaged with the Syrian opposition. You could remember a year ago that they were completely un-unified and spoke without one voice.

So we will continue to work with them. I’m not going to vouch on any process over which we don’t have control, but I will tell you that they are adamant, all of them, about what they’re fighting for. And the cause is the cause of the Syrian people. And they have committed themselves to a broad-based government that is going to represent all of the people of Syria, even as there may be some dissension as to tactics or process among them. So you have to have some patience in this process even as you approach it with care. And I think that’s exactly what we’re doing.

We want to stop the killing. And they want to stop the killing. The world wants to stop the killing. And we want to be able to see Assad and the Syrian opposition come to the table for the creation of a transitional government according to the framework that was created in Geneva, the Geneva Protocol, which requires mutual consent on both sides to the formation of that transitional government.

That’s what we’re pushing for. And to do that, you have to have President Assad change his calculation so he doesn’t believe he can shoot it out endlessly, but you also need a cooperative Syrian opposition to come to the table, too. We’re working on it, and we will continue to work on it.

Laurent Fabius

Laurent Fabius, Kerry’s French counterpart, elaborated further.

He told the foreign affairs committee of the National Assembly that France, Russia and the United States are trying to draw up a list of Syrian officials with whom the SNC can negotiate.

"We worked together on an idea... of a list of Syrian officials who would be acceptable to Syria's opposition National Coalition," he said.

Fabius said Khatib had said in a "very brazen manner" that he was willing to negotiate with some regime officials but not Assad.

"We have discussed this with the Russians and the Americans... There have been exchanges to seek a political solution," he said.

Farah Atassi

Overnight, Syrian American activist Farah Atassi reacted on her Facebook page writing in Arabic:

Which regime figures and Syrian officials would negotiate Assad’s exit? The Syrian revolution spent two years looking for them.

When Iraq, Lebanon, Algeria, Sudan, Yemen, China, Iran, Hezbollah and Russia – the Assad regime’s official mouthpiece – avow publicly they can’t convince or force Assad to step down, which prodigious Superman, Batman and Grendizer will assume the task?

Are the French, the Americans and the Europeans pulling the wool over our eyes or their own?

James Clapper

America’s Director of National Intelligence James Clapper yesterday told a Senate Intelligence Committee on global security threats that forces seeking to oust Assad are gaining strength and territory, but the Syrian opposition remains fragmented and is grappling with an infusion of militant foreign fighters.

"The question comes up, 'How long will Assad last?' And our standard answer is, 'His days are numbered. We just don't know the number.' Our assessment is that he is very committed to hanging in there and sustaining his control of the regime," Clapper told the Senate panel.

Assad's government is losing territory and experiencing shortages in manpower and logistics, Clapper said. But at the same time, there are "literally hundreds" of cells of opposition fighters over which leaders are struggling to impose more centralized command and control.

Clapper noted a growing presence among Assad's opponents of foreign fighters, many associated with al-Nusra Front, an offshoot of al-Qaeda in Iraq that has gained strength in Syria partly by offering services to a population beaten down by two years of civil war.

"They are, where they can, providing more and more municipal services in what is a very terrible situation from a humanitarian standpoint," Clapper said.

Henry Kissinger

Last Friday, Henry Kissinger took questions at the annual corporate conference of the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan later wrote in part on Peggy Noonan’s Blog:

Kissinger of course is an iconic figure in the history of foreign affairs, a statesman and historian of statesmanship. He will be 90 soon but he’s taken the opposite of the usual trajectory of those formerly in power. Normally the longer you’ve been from high office the smaller you seem. Kissinger has retained his gravity and presence, and his foreign-policy mystique has in fact grown since he left the secretary of state’s office in 1977. In part this may be because he thinks about, writes about and supports the idea that great nations need grand strategies…

From my notes:

On Syria: “Someone who chooses ophthalmology as a career is not a man driven by huge concepts of state.” President Bashar Assad’s father would have been ruthless too in similar circumstances, but also “more skilled in diplomacy.”

“It would be better if Assad left,” Kissinger said. America’s concern is to have “a non-radical outcome.” The question is what Syria would look like after the fall of Assad. “In the abstract, an outcome that permits the various ethnic groups a certain autonomy” is desirable.

We should be aware of Russia’s anxieties. “They are genuinely worried about the spread of radicalism,” he said. “Radicalism that would fall from Syria would reach them first.”

“If we can make a strategic agreement with Russia, we would have to take it to the Arab world.”

“Whatever we do . . . in my life we’ve had four wars which we entered with great enthusiasm and did not know how to end.” We want an outcome that takes account of “humanitarian concerns” and “is not radical.” We should do what we can “short of American ground forces.”

On the Obama administration’s foreign policy: “They are skillful in handling tactical aspects of situations.” But “they have not been able to put this together into a strategic overview of where we’re going… I don’t think they’re disliked but they’re not fully trusted anywhere. Nobody knows where they’re going.”

“Obama to receive Khatib and FSA chief of staff”

Clockwise from top left: Obama, Khatib, Mrs. Atassi and Idriss

President Barack Obama is reportedly expected to receive Syrian National Coalition leader Moaz al-Khatib and the Chief of Staff of the Free Syrian Army, Brig. Gen. Salim Idriss, on their visit to Washington next week.

Syrian American activist Farah Atassi, who broke the news on her Facebook page an hour ago, said both men will also confer with leading members of the U.S. Administration.

Mrs. Atassi is the founder and President of the Arab Information & Resource Center in Washington DC.

She is also executive director of the American Arab Communication & Translation Center (ACT), which provides international consultancy, translations, language services, research, media monitoring, strategic assessment and analysis to U.S. and Arab governments, NGOs and corporations.

The International Peace Federation at the United Nations nominated her as an Ambassador of Peace for her role in business diplomacy, and interfaith and cross-cultural dialogue.