The horrors after the Doha summit picture

Suhair Atassi (top) seen fronting for Moaz al-Khatib (above) at the Arab summit 

Symbolism was the memorable part of the just-concluded Arab summit in Doha.

The symbolism of Syrian opposition leader Moaz al-Khatib being asked to take over President Bashar al-Assad’s seat and address the Arab heads of state in the name of the Syrian people.

And the symbolism of Suhair Atassi briefly deputizing for Khatib later and becoming the first Arab woman to chair an Arab League summit delegation.

Writing in Arabic on what was real and what was metaphorical in Doha, Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of pan-Arab al-Hayat, says the image summed up the summit. And yesterday’s image was “unmatched, conclusive and cruel.”

Charbel explains:

Seeing the Syrian opposition delegation meet huge applause as it made its way to its country’s seat at the summit was unusual.

Witnessing Moaz al-Khatib seated behind the revolution flag, instead of the decades-old Syrian Republic flag we knew, was extraordinary.

Seeing no walkout from the conference room by any delegation leader was equally remarkable.

It is not in the habit of Arab summits to send that sort of message to a member-state’s regime. The Doha summit did not suffice with keeping Syria’s seat vacant but went further and gave it to a delegation representing the Syrian revolution.

The remarkable thing is that the image pertains to an Arab League heavyweight and founding member-state that used to have the last word on matters concerning Lebanon and Palestine.

The image carried a few connotations.

It was a sharp response to Lakhdar Brahimi’s last visit to Damascus.

It evoked the unimaginable human and material losses inflicting by the regime’s military machine on cities and villages and their residents.

And it recalled Russia and Iran’s persistent backing of the regime at the risk of triggering regional and international face-offs liable to dismember or destroy what remains of Syria.

The image came in the context of a growing belief among Arab and Western decision-makers that the Syrian regime will turn down any political settlement unless forced. This explains the (summit) resolve to redress the balance of forces in favor of the revolution. The resolve translates into resuming the funding and arming of opposition forces and continuing to de-legitimize the regime. That’s what can be read into yesterday’s image.

The image came as the Free Syrian Army (FSA) was launching increasingly audacious attacks on regime forces in the country’s south, thus knocking at the door of the regime’s capital, and shelling the heart of Damascus almost daily.

What did the other sides read into yesterday’s image?

We have to wait and see what Damascus infers from Khatib heading the Syria delegation to the summit. Does Damascus have options other than the one it is using?

What will Tehran deduce from the image coming, as it did, when the Saudis were saying they had arrested a spy ring linked to Iran’s intelligence services? Will it perceive the image as a relentless drive to root out its position in Syria and block its route to Lebanon? Will it deduce that retreat or a change of course is behind time?

And what is Hezbollah reading into the image? Does it feel Lebanon can take more meddling by its men in the Syria fighting?

What does Nouri al-Maliki notice in the image after choosing to watch it from Baghdad?

And what will Moscow detect in the image after Khatib said the opposition is looking forward to claim Syria’s seat at the United Nations and other international organizations?

Another warranted question is: How will the Syrian opposition build on yesterday’s success? Will it be tempted to go for the kill and try a knockout against the regime? Or will it choose to redress the balance on the ground and keep alive the chance of Syria’s components continuing to coexist? And will the revolution amplify yesterday’s achievement by closing ranks, ending internal splits and shutting out roving fighters?

Syria watchers are seriously worried lest the next image turns out to be bleaker than the one that preceded yesterday’s.

Some of them are anticipating a terrible and ruinous battle in Damascus that would set off a new wave of refugees and rivers of blood and funerals. They say what we’ve seen so far, which is terrible, is only a small sample of what’s in store.

That will most likely be the case. The Syrian revolution has entered its most difficult and dangerous phase. The neighboring countries are buckling up in expectation of the tremor.

In face of the pending horrors, the adversaries would be well-advised to keep the phone numbers of Lakhdar Brahimi handy.

They might need him to certify the change and check the losses and outrages.

Khatib: I asked Kerry for Patriots to shield N. Syria

From top, Qatar's emir, Khatib leading the opposition delegation, and seated in Syria's chair 

Talking today from Bashar al-Assad’s seat at the Arab summit in Doha, Syrian opposition leader Moaz al-Khatib said he asked Secretary of State John Kerry for U.S. forces “not to fight but to defend northern Syria” with Patriot surface-to-air missiles.

Kerry “promised to consider the matter,” Khatib said without elaborating.

Qatar's emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, opened the two-day summit by naming Khatib and Interim Prime Minister Ghassan Hitto to lead their combined team to Syria’s assigned seats at the conference.

Khatib went in front and sat in what would have been Syrian President Assad’s chair before addressing the heads of state in the Syrian people’s name.

His address came within an hour or so of a stirring opening speech by Sheikh Hamad in which he pledged to contribute $250 million to a US$1 billion fund for the preservation of (East) Jerusalem as a capital for the future Palestinian state.

The Qatari head of state also proposed an Arab mini-summit in Cairo for the sole purpose of spawning a Palestinian reconciliation between Gaza and the West Bank.

On Syria specifically, Sheikh Hamad said:

We welcome the participation of the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces and the Syrian Interim Government in our summit.

They are undoubtedly worthy of this representation after earning popular legitimacy at home and wide support abroad, and for the reason that they have assumed a historic role in leading the revolution and preparing to build a New Syria.

Grave and tragic conditions in sisterly Syria have taken a catastrophic turn over the past two years, leading to indescribable tragedies and crimes. Holding one’s tongue about these and about the suffering of the Syrian people in Syria and of the refugees in host countries is in itself a crime.

From the outset, we in the State of Qatar built our position on a set of constants:

-- The immediate cessation of killings and violence against civilians the safeguarding of sisterly Syria’s territorial integrity and popular unity

-- Fulfillment of the will of the Syrian people on the transfer of the power

-- Support Arab and international efforts and political solutions that achieve the Syrian people’s willpower and legitimate aspirations.

(…)

It is unfortunate the Syrian regime chose to enter into a military confrontation with its people, turning down all appeals for serious reform and all Arab political initiatives until the catastrophe reached the stage where the much-loved Syrian people would accept nothing less than a peaceful transition of power, as endorsed by the Arab League resolution dated July 22, 2012.

History will attest as to who stood by the Syrian people in their ordeal and who let them down.

We reiterate our call on the UN Security Council to uphold rights and justice, and pass a resolution ordering an immediate cessation of the bloodshed in Syria and bringing to international justice those responsible for the crimes committed against its people.

We renew our commitment to keep providing humanitarian assistance to the Syrian people, and urge all countries of the world to do so.

We underscore the importance of convening an international conference under UN auspices for the reconstruction of Syria right after the transfer of power as willed by the Syrian people.

I find it important to repeat that we are in favor of a political solution that spares peoples’ blood and lives, presuming that a solution does not put the clock back.

I see the great Syria rising from the rubble soon to rebuild its glory.

Speaking about half-an-hour later, Khatib told the summit:

• Ours started as a peaceful revolution, but it was met by a heartless man’s hellfire... Syrians are the only people on earth whose breadlines are bombed by warplanes.
• The Syrian people cannot coexist with the Assad mafia.
• Whereas we welcome a peace settlement, the regime rejects any solution to the Syria crisis. I suggested talking to Syrian regime representatives in return for the release of prisoners, but the regime shot down the offer.
• The Syrian people initiated their revolution. They alone will determine its course.
• Does it take years to recognize our people’s right to self-defense?
• Occupying Syria’s seat (at the summit) is part of the recovery of the Syrian people’s legitimate rights. We also demand regaining Syria’s seat at the United Nations and other international organizations and the repossession of Syrian (regime’s frozen) assets.
• Interim Prime Minister Hitto has our full confidence… We also plan to transform the Syrian National Coalition into an all-inclusive National Congress.
• The Syrian revolution is being undermined on three pretenses: minorities, terrorism and fear of the unknown.
• The pretense of minorities does not hold water. You need to ask the Lebanese about how the Syrian regime divided all Lebanese sects to rule Lebanon (for 30 years). And who killed Ghazi Kanaan (Syria’s long-time Alawite security chief in Lebanon)? Haven’t Syrian Alawites just concluded a two-day conference in Cairo, which accused the regime of working on turning sectarian zealotry into bloodshed?
• Regarding the pretense of terrorists being in rebel ranks, what do you call the Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah men fighting in regime ranks? And what about the regime’s two-year reign of terror?
• A propos fears as to who rules Syria after regime change, my answer is that Syrians alone will decide who rules them and how. It is no one else’s decision.
• The United States should play a bigger role in helping stop the bloodletting in Syria. I asked Mr. Kerry to extend the Patriots’ umbrella to cover the Syrian north and he promised to consider the matter. We are still waiting for a NATO decision to protect people's lives -- not to fight, but to protect lives.

Syrian opposition looks on the up and up

"New Syria" Ambassador to Qatar, Nizar al-Haraki

Qatar is the world’s first to hand over the Syrian embassy in its capital, Doha, to the Syrian opposition.

The move was announced in a statement by the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, which promptly named Nizar al-Haraki as ambassador.

Haraki, 50, hails from Deraa, cradle of the Syrian uprising, and is an electrical engineering graduate of Aleppo University, where scores of students were killed by MIG airstrikes in mid-January.

Speaking to AFP by phone, Haraki said the Qatari authorities had accepted his appointment.

"I will start work along with two other diplomats," said Haraki.

"Depending on whether they support the revolution, we will decide which former embassy staff members we will keep, and who we will lay off."

Captured al-Jarrah air base

In its statement, the Syrian National Coalition said one of the embassy’s priorities would be to work in tandem with the Qatari Foreign Ministry on issues concerning the travel documents of large numbers of Syrian exiles and refugees.

Human rights chief Navi Pillay says the death toll in Syria is now nearly 70,000. She had given an estimate of at least 60,000 at the beginning of the year.

Russia today confirmed it is still supplying arms to Syria's government. However, the head of the state arms exporter said the supplies did not include attack weapons such as planes or helicopters.

In fighting this week, Syrian opposition forces captured al-Jarrah military air base near Aleppo, where they seized usable MIG fighter jets.

They also overran the country’s strategic al-Furat hydroelectric dam, which they have fought over since July.

The dam is 60 meters high and 4.5 kilometers long and is Syria’s largest. It was built between 1968 and 1973 with help from the Soviet Union.

U.S. set to revisit Syria with “Riad Seif plan”

Riad Seif after his shabiha beating and behind his desk

“Syrian opposition leaders of all stripes will convene in Qatar next week to form a new leadership body to subsume the opposition Syrian National Council,” according to Josh Rogin, who covers U.S. national security and foreign policy and writes Foreign Policy’s daily Web column The Cable.

Rogin, whose article you can read in full here, writes in part:

U.S officials are “frustrated with an SNC they say has failed to attract broad support, particularly from the Alawite and Kurdish minorities. The new council is an attempt to change that dynamic. Dozens of Syrian leaders will meet in the Qatari capital, Doha, on Nov. 3 and hope to announce the new council as the legitimate representative of all the major Syrian opposition factions on Nov. 7, one day after the U.S. presidential election.

“The Obama administration sees the new council as a potential interim government that could negotiate with both the international community and - down the line - perhaps also the Syrian regime. The SNC will have a minority stake in the new body, but some opposition leaders are still skeptical that the effort will succeed.

“The Qatar meeting will include dozens of opposition leaders from inside Syria, including from the provincial revolutionary councils, the local ‘coordination committees’ of activists, and select people from the newly established local administrative councils.

"We call it a proto-parliament. One could also think of it as a continental congress," a senior administration official told The Cable.

“U.S. officials and opposition leaders are calling the initiative the ‘Riad Seif plan,’ named after the former Syrian parliamentarian and dissident who was imprisoned after he signed the Damascus Declaration on respect for Syrians' human rights in 2005. He was released in 2011, beaten up by a Shabiha gang in October 2011, and finally allowed to leave Syria in June 2012.

“Seif is central to the formation of the new council and is seen as a figure with broad credibility with both the internal and external Syrian opposition.

“‘We have to get [the internal opposition] to bless the new political leadership structure they're setting up and not only do we have to get them to bless the structure, but they have to get the names on it," the official said, noting that the exact structure of the council will be determined in Qatar, not before.

“‘We need to be clear: This is what the Americans support, and if you want to work with us you are going to work with this plan and you're going to do this now,’ the official said. ‘We aren't going to waste time anymore. The situation is worsening. We need to do this now.’

“…The U.S. government will be represented at the Nov. 7 Qatar meeting by Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, who has been dealing with various opposition groups and weighing in on the composition of the new council, a senior administration official said…”

Syria: Provisional government is next big hot potato

A contested crossing point to Syria

France’s call for the speedy formation of a Syrian provisional government is a political hot potato for the Syrian opposition.

With Kofi Annan’s troubleshooting mission dead and buried, and internecine fighting raging across Syria, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said Saturday:

Whatever its maneuvers, the regime of Bashar al-Assad is being condemned by its own courageous people.

We have been in contact with Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani and others to find a solution to the 16-month crisis in Syria.

We all agree the time has come to prepare the transition and the day after.

Time has come for the opposition to get going in order to take command of the country.

We look forward to the rapid formation of a provisional government, which should be representative of the diversity of Syrian society.

France fully supports the efforts of the Arab League in this direction

We are ready for any initiative, including the hosting of a ministerial meeting in Paris to consolidate the efforts of Arab countries in building the Syria of tomorrow.

Along with the European Union, we are also trying to provide help and necessary support to the increasing number of refugees, in cooperation with neighboring countries.

Annan’s plan called for a political “transitional government” in Damascus led by Syria and comprising both loyalist and opposition figures whereas a “provisional government” as proposed by France would be set up solely by the opposition.

As explained by Wikipedia, a “provisional government” is an emergency or interim government set up when a political void has been created by the collapse of a very large government… Provisional governments are generally unelected and tend to arise in association with or in the aftermath of civil or foreign wars.”

In addition to provisional governments established by European nations under Nazi occupation, Wikipedia lists some 20 other examples of provisional governments active in the 20^th and 21st centuries.

It is still unclear if the Arab League’s Syria task group meeting in Doha tonight would endorse the idea of the Syrian opposition setting up a provisional government.

Represented on the Syria task group, in addition to Elaraby, are Algeria, Egypt, Sudan, Qatar and Oman.

The big question of course is whether the Syrian opposition groups can see eye to eye on a representative provisional government, its political program and lineup.

To their credit, the oppositions groups were able to endorse plans for a new democratic, pluralistic and civilian Syria at their two-day meeting earlier this month at Arab League headquarters in Cairo. (See my July 4 post, “Syria opposition thrashes out post-Assad roadmap”).

Advantages of the opposition’s umbrella group known as the Syrian National Council (SNC) making common cause with the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and the Local Coordination Committees of Syria (LCCs) to co-opt other opposition factions and grassroots activists and set up a Syrian Provisional Government (SPG) are many.

As the brainchild of France and the Arab League, I suppose SPG would, among other things:

• be recognized upon declaration as legitimate representative of the Syrian people in most Western and Arab capitals.
• be able to open offices in key world capitals to muster support for post-Assad Syria and solicit, coordinate and then apportion donor assistance.
• create a credible vehicle for approaching other governments
• demonstrate seriousness of planning, entice participation of Syria’s internal opposition, encourage defections and increase pressure on Assad
• allow opposition leaderships to build unity and trust and gradually gel in a common political body.
• provide international legal status to FSA combatants.
• potentially dilute ethnic and sectarian sensitivities and interests.

By the way, I learned today that the most notable provisional government was the Russian Provisional Government in 1917.