Abductions in Syria raise Lebanon suspense

The Lebanese women were flown back to Beirut

overnight (Photo by Haitham Mousawi for al-Akhbar)

What’s wrong in Lebanon?

Someone apparently asked Siri the same question on her iPhone 4S.

She later tweeted:

I don’t own an iPhone and I don’t plan asking Siri.

My short answer to “wassup in Lebanon” is: “Here are the pointers, so draw your own conclusions.”

The pointers:

=== The bad news is that Syrian rebels Tuesday abducted 11 Lebanese Shiite men and their Syrian bus driver in the northern Syrian province of Aleppo on their way back from a religious trip to Iran. Women traveling in the group were allowed to go free and flown back to Beirut overnight.

=== The good news is that Lebanese Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour, who usually speaks for Syria, expects the men to be released “within hours, according to information provided by an Arab country.” Earlier, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who strongly backs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, appealed for calm. At the same time, former Sunnite premier Saad Hariri, who leads the anti-Assad opposition in Lebanon, strongly denounced the abduction “of our Lebanese brothers in Syria” and called for the men’s “immediate release.”

=== The bad news is that Michel Aoun, head of the Change and Reform parliamentary bloc and who Assad crowned leader of the Orient’s Christians, Tuesday came out in support of the May 17 letter by Syria’s UN ambassador Bashar Ja’afari to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. The letter depicts Lebanon as a Taliban-infested Afghanistan, its eastern and northern regions as the hills and caves of Tora Bora and its seaport city of Tripoli as Kandahar (see my May 19 post). Aoun told reporters Ja’afari “has data and does not lie.”

=== The good news is that Lebanon’s pro- and anti-Assad political factions Wednesday welcomed Saudi King Abdullah’s call for national dialogue to help steer Lebanon clear of regional turmoil, chiefly in Syria. The monarch said in a letter to President Michel Suleiman: “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia follows with great concern developments in Tripoli, mainly the targeting of one of the main sects in the Lebanese communal fabric…

“Considering the gravity of the crisis and the possibility of its relapse into sectarian sedition – reviving, God forbid, the specter of civil war -- we look forward to Your Excellency’s wisdom, hoping you would intervene to end the crisis by initiating a national dialogue in keeping with your eagerness to dissociate Lebanon from external conflicts, particularly from the Syrian crisis next door.”

=== The bad news is that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov today told a televised news conference in Moscow the Syrian conflict might spread to Lebanon. "Now, there is a real risk that the conflict may start spilling over into Lebanon where, given the historical context, the ethnic and religious make-up of the population, as well as the principles that Lebanon rests on, things may end badly indeed.”

Editorially, Lebanese political analyst Abdelwahhab Badrakhan says Lebanon’s current predicament was expected.

Detachment from events in Syria, he writes today for Beirut’s an-Nahar, was “neither Lebanon’s choice nor decision.”

The Lebanese government’s avowed policy of “self-distancing” itself from the Syria crisis was the upshot of Damascus’ quest “for breathing space from international sanctions.” It was also the upshot of Iran’s need to ease Hezbollah’s burden in running the country. The result was a period of quasi-stability that earned the Beirut government cautious, but uncertified, praise.

Badrakhan says, “Only a strong and independent government can self-distance itself from whatever is prejudicial to Lebanese interests – but not a government submissive to the Syrian regime and fearful of the regime’s Lebanese tentacles inside and outside state institutions.”

Badrakhan recalls that within days of Foreign Minister Mansour confiding the government had “disappointed” Damascus, Ja’afari was accusing Lebanon of harboring terrorists and arms smugglers and “a Lebanese army checkpoint sought to ‘assuage’ Syria’s disappointment.”

He says the killing of two sheikhs at an army checkpoint in Akkar and the way anti-Assad activist Shadi Mawlawi was arrested in Tripoli were probably the beginning of something more sinister.

According to Badrakhan, “Renewed talk of insubordinate (security) elements brings to mind similar 1975 (civil war) scenarios… In the 37 years since, it does not seem like the army has fortified the state. Nor has the army build up muscle to protect the state. What took place in Tripoli and Akkar, then Beirut, is not as alarming as making the Lebanese deem a return to civil war likely because the state and the army are threatened.”

Why then this frenetic drive to inflame and detonate?

Simply because the Syrian regime is dispirited by its treatment at the hands of international players, “save for Russia and China.” Damascus feels accepting Annan’s plan, and proving it remained in control of the situation, went unrewarded… Still, the players are not relenting. In view of that, says Badrakhan, Damascus decided to poke around in Lebanon while telling the international players, “Talk to me. Otherwise, I will destabilize and destroy Lebanon.” 

“Difficult days ahead for Lebanon”

(Photo from al-Joumhouria)

By George Solage*

The situation in Lebanon becomes all the more dangerous as the Lebanese sides increase their meddling in the Syrian crisis.

Successive security incidents also show the struggle in and over Syria has started creeping into the brittle Lebanese interior, which is prone to blow up instantly at any time.

The controls have all but evaporated as sectarian compulsions get the better of national logic and external agendas take precedence over internal priorities.

The release of Shadi Mawlawi won’t pacify the Tripoli streets. Nor will holding to account the killers of sheikhs Ahmed Abdul-Wahed and Mohammed Hussein Merheb calm the volcanic anger of the people of Akkar, whose social and economic development rights have long been overlooked.

The people of the North feel targeted and hunted. They feel their youths are trailed. They feel accused of being Takfeeris. Weapons are seized from their hands but permitted in the hands of others. They are dubbed terrorist suspects liable to be penalized. They are banned from sympathizing with their Sunnite brethren in Syria. They are threatened with a return of the Syrian army to their region to supposedly prevent Akkar from becoming a sanctuary for the Syrian regime’s opponents and a buffer zone and launching pad for military operations inside Syria.

In light of this perception, which raised tension to unforeseen levels, chances of a political solution sponsored by Lebanese officialdom receded. Some branches of government floated the idea of a security solution on the ground, which effectively translates into pitting the Lebanese army against its own people in Tripoli and Akkar.

The security situation did not work in Syria and can’t succeed in Lebanon because the problem is not a question of security, but of politics. The problem needs to be addressed politically.

Even though some people point the finger at the army, the issue is not between the army and the political forces or the denizens of the region.

Talk about a likely return of the Syrian army to Lebanon is pure scaremongering. The Syrian army now is in no position to undertake such an adventure. Also, there’s no international decision to that effect. On the contrary, such a move would trigger an international outcry of which Syria is aware and can ill afford.

A high-ranking security source confirms this and does not anticipate security turmoil in Beirut at this stage, despite the incidents of the past couple of days. He is surprised by the amplification of reports about al-Qaeda cadres being in Beirut and heading to Syria. He is also confident the Lebanese army and the internal security forces are in control.

But good intentions alone are not enough and warnings are futile so long as “self-distancing” (from Syria) remains a (government) policy slogan, which the political authorities either don’t wish to uphold or don’t dare to respect.

Proof is that the “virtual (parliamentary) majority” still does not see the need to replace the present government with a salvation government in order to safeguard Lebanon from the high-risk challenges threatening its security, unity, sovereignty and future.

What lies in store (for Lebanon) is onerous and extremely intricate.

It will become more menacing if the past fortnight’s realities on the ground – the realities of coupling Lebanon’s north and the Syrian interior – take hold.

The directives by Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to their citizens to avoid travel to Lebanon is one of many prices the Lebanese would have to pay should they choose to poke their nose further into the Syrian crisis and ignore the pressing need for a salvation government in anticipation of arms proliferating and the situation flaring up on a wider scale.

*This think piece by George Solage appears in Arabic today in the independent Beirut daily al-Joumhouria. Solage is a longtime media aide to Lebanon’s former defense minister Elias el-Murr. 

Syria “chaos” entraps Lebanon

The victim, his blood-stained and bullet-riddled Range and a riot scene 

The so-called April 1975 “Ain el-Remmaneh incident” was the spark that set off Lebanon’s 15-year civil war.

Yesterday’s unprovoked killing by Lebanese soldiers of a Lebanese Sunnite cleric opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could mark the date of Lebanon’s head on plunge into Syria’s “chaos.”

Sheikh Ahmed Abdul-Wahed was shot dead, along with his travel companion Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Merheb, in his Range Rover at an army checkpoint at Kwaikhat in Akkar, a district in the north Lebanon governorate.

He was on his way to address a rally in the Akkar capital of Halba. The event was immediately called off.

The Lebanese army promptly said in a communiqué it deeply regretted the incident, promising a military inquiry. The state commissioner to the military court, judge Saqr Saqr, later ordered the arrest of the three army officers and 19 soldiers who were manning the checkpoint at Kwaikhat.

Abdul-Wahed, a 1969 native of al-Bireh in Akkar where he founded al-Noor Islamic school and charity, was devoted to helping Syrian refugees in Lebanon. He was close to the anti-Assad “March 14” alliance led by former premier Saad Hariri’s Future Movement.

News of the killing by the army drove angry people to the streets of Akkar villages as protestors cut off roads with burning tires. Protesters blocked roads elsewhere in Tripoli, the Eastern Bekaa valley and the Beirut highway to South Lebanon as well as in the Beirut areas of Verdun, Mazraa, Tarik el-Jdideh, Beshara el-Khoury and Qasqas.

Armed clashes overnight in Tarik el-Jdideh between supporters of the Future Movement and their rivals in the Arab Movement Party headed by Shaker Berjawi, an ally of the Syrian government, left three people dead and 15 wounded overnight.

The fighting in Beirut was the most intense since May 7, 2008, when Hezbollah gunmen swept through Sunnite neighborhoods and torched the Future Movement’s TV station after the government tried to dismantle the group's telecommunications network.

Lebanon’s Grand Mufti Sheikh Mohammed Rasheed Qabbani has declared three days of mourning over Sheikh Abdul-Wahed’s death.

Future Movement MPs, including Khaled Daher and Marwan Hamadeh, said the incident was a targeted hit.

"If shots were fired at the tires, we would say there was a mistake. But we consider this a direct targeting from the army," he told Reuters.

"Frankly, we do not want to see the army here because it works at the service of the Syrian regime," he said.

Hamadeh said a number of lawmakers would seek a parliamentary probe into “the practices of some army intelligence and General Security personnel… that join efforts by the crumbling regime in Damascus to inflame the situation in Lebanon ahead of its downfall.”

Future Movement leader Saad Hariri also pointed the finger at Assad "infiltrators" in the military for the deaths.

"There are some infiltrators who want to use the military and its image to import the crisis of the Syrian regime to Lebanon in a desperate attempt to save Assad's regime from its inevitable end," he said.

Abdelqader Abdul-Wahed, the slain cleric’s brother, echoed the sentiments in an interview with Lebanon’s MTV. "Unfortunately, we have some infiltrated elements in the Lebanese army, possibly officers who work for the Assad regime," he said. "I hope the army institution cleanse itself from these elements."

After the Lebanese Army curbed the May 12-14 clashes between Tripoli's two adjacent districts -- the predominantly Sunnite “Bab al-Tebbaneh” and the overwhelmingly Alawite “Jabal Mohsen” – Lebanese Alawite chieftain Rifaat Eid talked tough at his Jabal Mohsen stronghold.

He told a May 16 press conference, “Everyone should be aware that sliding further into the unknown would mean no one could pacify Lebanon except through the intervention of an Arab army. And no one would be able to do so except Syria. If you asked me my opinion, I have no problem with (the Syrian army coming in). Better this happened today than tomorrow…”

Speaking in an interview broadcast the same day on Russian state news channel Rossiya-24, Assad put the blame for the Syria violence on the Arab Spring and said weapons bound for Syrian rebels were entering his country from Lebanon, adding: "And as I have said, if you sow chaos in Syria you may be infected by it yourself, and they understand this perfectly well." (See my May 17 post, “How Syria fire is creeping up on Lebanon”).

Syria’s UN Ambassador Bashar Ja'afari wrote in a letter to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon dated May 17 saying, “In some Lebanese areas bordering Syria, several warehouses have been set up to stockpile weapons and ammunition that are reaching Lebanon illegally…”

He said the weapons are “moved first to Akkar, then to Wadi Khaled, ahead of their smuggling into Syria… Premises of charities run by Salafists and the Future Movement in Lebanese areas bordering Syria are being used to provide safe havens to al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood terrorists to launch hit-and-run criminal operations inside Syria. The injured among them are treated under fake names in hospitals and clinics affiliated to those (Salafist and Future Movement) groups and funded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.” (See my May 18 post, “Syria seen lighting the Lebanon fuse”).

Lebanese political analyst Rosanna Boumounsef, in her column for the independent Beirut daily an-Nahar, says in light of the weekend developments in Akkar, “the Syrian regime’s resolve to forcibly drag Lebanon into its crisis leaves the Lebanese government in an extremely embarrassing position.”

Disputing the allegations made by Ja’afari verbally – as Prime Minister Najib Mikati has already done -- is not enough, she explains.  Ja’afari specifically wrote Ban Ki-moon and the president of the Security Council saying, “It would be highly appreciated if the annexed letter (describing Lebanon as a hotbed of terrorism) could be circulated urgently as an official document of the Security Council.”

This, Boumounsef writes, requires Lebanon “to respond in the same way – by writing a letter to Ban Ki-moon and the Security Council president challenging the contents of the Syrian document. This is part of the duties of the Lebanese government, irrespective of its makeup, since the document presented by Syria defames the whole of Lebanon and casts aspersions on its reputation. If the Lebanese government allowed the Syrian document to pass without a riposte addressed to the UN and the Security Council, it would be held accountable for document’s fallouts.”

Charles Habbour, in his think piece for the Lebanese independent daily al-Joumhouria published by former defense minister Elias el-Murr, sees Lebanon being forced to change direction and become Syria’s “playing field instead of its outlet.”

The north Lebanon turmoil, he says, shows Syria to be “in a hurry.” Within weeks of the attempt on the life of Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea that was meant to destabilize the Christian community, Damascus turned its gunsight on the Sunnites to export its crisis.

Habbour says Damascus “decided to push Lebanon to change course. Instead of perceiving Lebanon as its political, diplomatic, financial and economic outlet, Syria wants Lebanon to become a playing field and a trump card primed for explosion, coercion or a tradeoff.”

Habbour gives three reasons for the U-turn by Damascus:

1.     Lebanon can no more serve as Syria’s “lung.” Given persistent pressure from the U.S. Treasury, Lebanese banks are finding it increasingly difficult to launder Syrian money or handle financial transactions with the Syrian regime and its supporters.

2.   Syria wants to use Lebanon as a bargaining chip. It is telling the Saudis that the regime’s confrontation with its Sunnites has now spread to Lebanon. It is also inviting the Americans to do a deal for the sake of regional stability.

3.     Seeing no end to the uprising, Syria wants to expand the lines of confrontation in an attempt to “escape forward.”    

“As usual, Lebanon is made to foot the bill,” Egyptian media celebrity Imad Adeeb writes for the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat. “The crisis is in Syria and Lebanon pays the price. The killer is in Damascus and the fatality will be in Beirut. It looks as though Syria is sending a regional and international message saying, ‘If you pressured us further, we would wreck your summer, your interests and your allies.’

“It is the same old game dating back almost half a century – the mafia’s game of trading off one crisis for another, one prisoner for a new and one hotspot for an additional.”

Syria seen lighting the Lebanon fuse

World Atlas map of the Syria-Lebanon borders

Syria is now depicting Lebanon as a Taliban-infested Afghanistan, its eastern and northern regions as the hills and caves of Tora Bora and its seaport city of Tripoli as Kandahar.

The innuendos, Lebanese political analyst Rosanna Boumounsef writes in her daily column for Beirut’s an-Nahar, portend three menaces:

1.     Cross-border Syrian Army raids on Lebanese regions abutting Syria

2.     Pressure on Beirut to emulate Damascus in pouncing on its own people

3.     Dragging vast swaths of eastern and northern Lebanon into the Syria cauldron.

Boumounsef, among several other analysts, was commenting on Syria’s letter to the United Nations accusing some Lebanese areas of helping al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood terrorists set up home along the Syrian border.

"Some Lebanese areas next to the Syrian border are harboring terrorist elements from al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood, who are jeopardizing the security of Syria and its citizens and striving to undermine the UN Special Envoy's six-point plan," Syria’s UN Ambassador Bashar Ja'afari wrote in a letter marked “Urgent” and dated May 17.

The seven-page letter (six of them in Arabic) was addressed to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and copied to the current UN Security Council president, Agshin Mehdiyev of Azerbaijan.

"In some Lebanese areas bordering Syria, several warehouses have been set up to stockpile weapons and ammunition that are reaching Lebanon illegally, either by sea, or at times via the airplanes of specific countries that are used to transport weapons to Lebanon before smuggling them to Syria, under the pretext they (the aircraft) are carrying humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees in Lebanon," Ja'afari said in the letter.

He said, “On March 13, an unidentified warship anchored off (the Lebanese coastal city) Jounieh as small boats went about moving its arms cargo to shore so it could then be moved to Syria. Weapons-laden vessels also docked at the Aquamarina near Jounieh. Their weapons shiploads were moved first to Akkar, then to Wadi Khaled, ahead of their smuggling into Syria.”

Ja’afari said, “Premises of charities run by Salafists and the Future Movement in Lebanese areas bordering Syria are being used to provide safe havens to al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood terrorists to launch hit-and-run criminal operations inside Syria. The injured among them are treated under fake names in hospitals and clinics affiliated to those (Salafist and Future Movement) groups and funded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.”

In the Tripoli governorate town of Kalamoun, he said, “there are about 50 terrorists led by Khaled el-Tanak, Khaled Hamza and Zakaria Ghaleb el-Kholi” who carry IDs rubberstamped by the UN allowing them to travel unhindered first to Danniyeh, on to Akkar and then to Wadi Khaled, where they would infiltrate into Syrian territory to mount terrorist operations.

Ja’afari added in his letter that Colonel Riad al-Asaad, head of the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), “recently arrived in Lebanon to prepare for creating a Syrian buffer zone commencing in Lebanese territory.”

Lebanese Premier Najib Miqati Friday picked holes in the Ja’afari letter and said his government “is fully performing its duty in combating all terror operations, in monitoring the Lebanese borders, in controlling the security situation and in addressing any security gaps.”

Miqati said, “Violations are also occurring from the Syrian side of the border, as everyone knows the crisscrossing nature of the frontier between the two countries and how difficult it is to control the extensive border area between them.

“Therefore, we consider the remarks voiced by the Syrian envoy as exacerbating the disputes, at a time when we are seeking, through the relevant diplomatic and security channels, to bridge differences and tackle problems calmly, carefully and in such a way as to safeguard the good relations between the two countries and peoples.”

Rosanna Boumounsef

Rosanna Boumounsef, in her news analysis for an-Nahar, says Lebanon is “immensely and deeply troubled” by the Syrian charges. The account by Ja’afari is “extremely dangerous” as it engrosses Lebanon “forcibly and publicly” in the Syrian quagmire.

The likely fallouts, she says, are at least three:

1.   There is the prospect of more frequent thrusts by the Syrian army into Lebanese border area under the pretext of the “hot pursuit” of so-called terrorists. The Ja’afari letter effectively delineates all the targeted Lebanese Christian and Sunnite area, including Jounieh, Danniyeh and Akkar. The letter also came hot on the heels of Lebanese Alawite warlord Rifaat Eid’s remark welcoming the Syrian army’s return to Tripoli to restore law and order in the troubled city. (See my earlier post, “How Syria fire is creeping up on Lebanon”).

2.    The second possibility is to pressure Lebanon’s political and security authorities to emulate the Syrian regime’s crackdown on what its dubs Muslim Brotherhood terrorists.

3.    A third likelihood is to stir up internecine strife in Lebanon. Syria’s Lebanese allies have long been describing Tripoli as an “outlaw city.”

Boumounsef notes the Syrian regime’s modus operandi is to try and take advantage of the situation in Lebanon to pressure its Arab and foreign detractors by threatening to sow chaos in neighboring countries. Only this week, she says, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told a Russian broadcaster, “If you sow chaos in Syria you may be infected by it yourself, and (Syria’s detractors) know this very well.”

Four firsts make Egypt’s elections historic

The 13 candidates (photo from Aljazeera)

Opinion polls are giving no clear pointers as to who will be leading Egypt after presidential elections set to be the freest the country has ever had.

Thirteen candidates are listed for the May 23 and 24 vote after a contentious disqualification process. If as expected no candidate takes an outright majority, a runoff between the top two will take place June 16 and 17, and a president would be declared on June 21.

The 13 presidential hopefuls (see “Meet the Candidates”) are:

1.   Abdelmoneim Abulfotouh, a practicing physician with extensive experience in relief work at an international level, a prominent Islamist activist, and a former leading Muslim Brotherhood figure

2.  Abdullah el-Ashal, an international law professor at the American University in Cairo, an Islamist thinker and a veteran diplomat

3.     Abul’ezz el-Hariri, a member of parliament and a socialist and labor activist for the last 45 years

4.    Ahmed Shafiq, a former commander of the Egyptian Air Force, diplomat and politician who was appointed prime minister in the final days of Hosni Mubarak’s rule

5.     Amr Moussa, a career diplomat who served as ambassador to India and to the UN in New York before being named foreign minister (1991-2001) first and then secretary-general of the Arab League (2001-2011)

6.     Hamdeen Sabahi, a veteran Nasserite opposition figure and former legislator

7.   Hisham el-Bastawisi, a prominent reformist judge who played a crucial role in the battle for judicial independence under Mubarak

8.  Hossam Khairallah, a career military officer with extensive experience in intelligence and international conflict resolution

9.    Khaled Ali, a well-known lawyer and activist who made a name for himself promoting social justice and defending the rights of workers, peasants and students over two decades

10.  Mahmoud Hossam Eddine Galal, a little known former police officer and businessman

11.  Mohamed Fawzi Issa, a 1964 Police Academy graduate who earned an additional law degree from Ain Shams University as well as a PhD in law in 1994

12.  Mohamed Mursi, an engineering professor who received extensive academic training in the United States and is now president of the Muslim Brotherhood

13.  Mohamed Selim el-‘Awa, Islamist intellectual, writer and prominent commercial litigator who holds diplomas in public and Islamic law and a PhD in philosophy from London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS)

At the time of this writing today, Friday, results of Egyptian expatriate voting in the United Arab Emirates, Austria, Washington, France, Sudan and Yemen were showing the race will come down to five candidates: Abulfotouh, Moussa, Sabahi, Mursi and Shafiq.

Earlier, the last weekly opinion poll by the Cairo-based Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies put Moussa in the lead, followed by Shafiq, Abulfotouh, Mursi and Sabahi.

The Baseera Center’s survey put Shafiq first, followed by Moussa, Abulfotouh and Mursi.

Another poll, by the Cabinet Information and Decision Support Center, had Shafiq, Moussa and Abulfotouh running neck and neck ahead of Mursi and Sabahi.

According to Gallup surveys released in Washington today, “Islamists appear to be losing steam in the lead-up to Egypt's presidential election next week. Less than half of Egyptians (42%) polled in April say they support the Muslim Brotherhood, a noticeable decline from 63% who said the same in February. Support for conservative Islamists, often referred to as ‘Salafis,’ is also down, but less dramatically.”

With the race so tight, a runoff vote seems inevitable, pitting one of the two Islamists (Abulfotouh or Mursi) against one of the three more liberal frontrunners: Sabahi, Shafiq or Moussa.

CBC TV channel's logo

Egyptian political analyst and the Middle East’s pioneer talk show host Imad Adeeb, in his daily column for Saudi Arabia’s Asharq Alawsat, gives his insight on the presidential elections after heading a panel that analyzed a series of presidential debates hosted by CBC (Capital Broadcasting Center) a free-to-air TV channel broadcasting from Cairo.

He hails the upcoming vote as a historic landmark for Egypt for four reasons. It is the first time in Egypt’s history, he writes, that:

One, presidential contenders are quizzed live by the media.

Two, candidates put forward diverse presidential platforms to address Egypt’s problems.

Three, each candidate tries to “market” himself and his platform on air.

Four, the Egyptian public does not know its next president just five days ahead of voting.

“The determining factor in these elections?”

In my opinion,” Adeeb writes, “the determining factor is the participation or abstention of the main body of apolitical and nonpartisan voters. They constitute at least 40 percent of voters. The higher their participation, the lower the chances of Islamist candidates. The greater their abstention, the more certain the victory of an Islamist.”

How Syria fire is creeping up on Lebanon

Rifaat Eid

Lebanon is being dragged gradually but surely into the Syria cauldron.

After this week’s round of fighting between Alawite and Sunnite militias in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city bordering Syria, three statements made overnight are symptomatic:

One, the overlord of Lebanon’s Alawites says he has no qualms about inviting the Syrian Army to restore order in Tripoli.

Two, the “March 14” coalition, which is the Syrian regime’s nemesis in Lebanon, says it wants Arab countries and the international community to help protect Lebanon’s northern and eastern borders with Syria.

Three, President Bashar al-Assad tells a Russian broadcaster Lebanon and Jordan have been helping to thwart the infiltration of terrorists and the smuggling of arms because they were aware “chaos” in Syria could spread to them.

Eid

After the Lebanese Army curbed the May 12-14 clashes between Tripoli's two adjacent districts -- the predominantly Sunnite “Bab al-Tebbaneh” and the overwhelmingly Alawite “Jabal Mohsen” – Alawite chieftain Rifaat Eid talked tough at his Bab al-Tebbaneh stronghold.

He told a Wednesday press conference the latest clashes were instigated by the “March 14” coalition and “gifted” to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman and U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman, who visited Lebanon in early May.

He described the cessation of violence in Tripoli as the “fighter’s rest,” adding: “Jabal Mohsen is paying the price of its political affinities with the resistance of (Hezbollah leader) Hassan Nasrallah, with the steadfastness of President Bashar al-Assad, with the missiles of Iran, with the Russian bear and with China.”

Eid said if the situation deteriorated further “there would be no solution left. Everyone should be aware that sliding further into the unknown would mean no one could pacify Lebanon except through the intervention of an Arab army. And no one would be able to do so except Syria. If you asked me my opinion, I have no problem with (the Syrian army coming in). Better this happened today than tomorrow…”

March 14

Parallel to Eid’s press conference, a statement by the “March 14” general secretariat was reiterating the coalition’s “political support for the Syrian revolution and its humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees.”

The statement blamed the violence in Tripoli on “the Syrian regime’s attempts to export its internal crisis” to neighboring Lebanon, adding: “In view of repeated violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty by the Syrian regime’s army, such as the detonation of the situation in Tripoli and the attacks on the areas of Arida, Wadi Khaled, Ersal, el-Qaa and Jabal el-Sheikh, and in view of the (Lebanese) political authorities and security forces’ ineptitude to protect the northern and eastern borders with Syria, ‘March 14’ requests that Arab countries and the international community be solicited to do so in keeping with UN resolutions 1559, 1680 and 1701.”

Assad

Speaking in an interview broadcast Wednesday on Russian state news channel Rossiya-24, Assad said Russia and China, who repeatedly expressed their support for Syria and backed the country in the UN Security Council, are not supporting him as head of state or his regime, but international stability.

“They [Russia and China] do not support me as president,” he said. “They promote stability in the region and have a very good understanding of Syria’s role and importance [in the Middle East].”

Without them Syria, as well as the region as a whole, “would be swept by chaos,” he said.

Assad said neighboring states like Lebanon and Jordan had been helping to thwart the shipment of weapons and the infiltration of fighters because they were aware the “chaos” could spread to them, and he said Europe and the West should be aware of the same danger in supporting the opposition.

Assad denounced the armed opposition as a gang of “criminals” who he said included religious extremists and members of al-Qaeda.

“It is not an army and it is not free,” he said, referring to the opposition’s Free Syrian Army.

“They get money and weapons from abroad from various countries. It is a group of criminals who have for years broken the law and received convictions. There are also religious extremists there like from al-Qaeda.”

Assad said, “Through the interrogation of terrorists, it became irrefutably clear weapons are being smuggled across the Syrian borders from neighboring countries and funds are being sent from people abroad… We have information about people leading these operations outside Syria and in several countries.

"There are bombs and mines placed in areas with civilians and may target civilians sometimes and they may target security forces or the police or the army… There are also-anti-tank weapons, which is new and serious… So all things point to the fact that there are countries responsible for armament and not individuals who may actually be fronts for these countries.

"Where do the weapons come from? From neighboring countries… (But) we cannot accuse them of being involved in the smuggling as it's difficult to control borders with surrounding countries..."

Team of 11 Saudi women conquers Everest

The Saudi women climbers display their national flag at Everest Base Camp

The climbers on their way to Everest Base Camp

The climbers displaying the Saudi flag and a banner of the sponsors of their campaign

The Saudi team's thank you to their journey organizers, Wild Guanabana

Bravissimo!

Here are pictures of the team of 11 lionhearted Saudi women who have just conquered Mount Everest. (The photo originals are from their Facebook page).

They are shown proudly raising Saudi Arabia’s national flag at Everest Base Camp in Nepal at an altitude of 5,364 meters, or 17,598 feet.

The pink climbers Tuesday started making their way back to the village of Pheriche. They will spend the night there and make their way down to the Sherpa capital of Namche Bazaar today, Wednesday.

They started their campaign -- dubbed “A Woman’s Journey – Destination Mount Everest” – the night of May 6-7, when they flew out to the Nepalese capital Kathmandu on the first leg of a two-week journey. The expedition is meant to promote awareness of breast cancer, express moral support for women sufferers and underscore the importance of healthier lifestyles and physical fitness.

The 11 Saudi heroines who took the breast cancer fight to the earth’s highest mountain – and who I introduced in an earlier post --are HRH Princess Reema Bint Bandar Bin Sultan, Alya Al-Sa'ad, Hatun Madani, Mona Shahab, Noura Bouzo, Lina Al-Maeena, Samaher Mously, Asma Al-Ghalib, Mashael Al-Hegelan, Hasna’a Mokhtar and Raha Moharrak.

My heartfelt wishes for a safe journey home. Your triumph is a source of pride for women and men throughout the Arab world.