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| (Photo from al-Joumhouria) |
By George
Solage*
The situation in Lebanon becomes all the more
dangerous as the Lebanese sides increase their meddling in the Syrian crisis.
Successive security incidents also show the struggle
in and over Syria has started creeping into the brittle Lebanese interior,
which is prone to blow up instantly at any time.
The controls have all but evaporated as sectarian
compulsions get the better of national logic and external agendas take
precedence over internal priorities.
The release of Shadi
Mawlawi won’t pacify the Tripoli streets. Nor will holding to account the
killers of sheikhs Ahmed
Abdul-Wahed and Mohammed Hussein Merheb
calm the volcanic anger of the people of Akkar, whose social and economic
development rights have long been overlooked.
The
people of the North feel targeted and hunted. They feel their youths are
trailed. They feel accused of being Takfeeris. Weapons are seized
from their hands but permitted in the hands of others. They are dubbed
terrorist suspects liable to be penalized. They are banned from sympathizing
with their Sunnite brethren in Syria. They are threatened with a return of the
Syrian army to their region to supposedly prevent Akkar from becoming a sanctuary
for the Syrian regime’s opponents and a buffer zone and launching pad for
military operations inside Syria.
In
light of this perception, which raised tension to unforeseen levels, chances of
a political solution sponsored by Lebanese officialdom receded. Some branches
of government floated the idea of a security solution on the ground, which effectively
translates into pitting the Lebanese army against its own people in Tripoli and
Akkar.
The
security situation did not work in Syria and can’t succeed in Lebanon because
the problem is not a question of security, but of politics. The problem needs
to be addressed politically.
Even
though some people point the finger at the army, the issue is not between the
army and the political forces or the denizens of the region.
Talk
about a likely return of the Syrian army to Lebanon is pure scaremongering. The
Syrian army now is in no position to undertake such an adventure. Also, there’s
no international decision to that effect. On the contrary, such a move would
trigger an international outcry of which Syria is aware and can ill afford.
A
high-ranking security source confirms this and does not anticipate security
turmoil in Beirut at this stage, despite the incidents of the past couple of
days. He is surprised by the amplification of reports about al-Qaeda cadres being
in Beirut and heading to Syria. He is also confident the Lebanese army and the
internal security forces are in control.
But
good intentions alone are not enough and warnings are futile so long as “self-distancing”
(from Syria) remains a (government) policy slogan, which the political
authorities either don’t wish to uphold or don’t dare to respect.
Proof
is that the “virtual (parliamentary) majority” still does not see the need to
replace the present government with a salvation government in order to safeguard
Lebanon from the high-risk challenges threatening its security, unity, sovereignty
and future.
What
lies in store (for Lebanon) is onerous and extremely intricate.
It
will become more menacing if the past fortnight’s realities on the ground – the
realities of coupling Lebanon’s north and the Syrian interior – take hold.
The
directives by Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to their
citizens to avoid travel to Lebanon is one of many prices the Lebanese would have
to pay should they choose to poke their nose further into the Syrian crisis and
ignore the pressing need for a salvation government in anticipation of arms proliferating
and the situation flaring up on a wider scale.
*This think
piece by George Solage appears in Arabic today in the independent Beirut daily
al-Joumhouria. Solage is a longtime media aide to Lebanon’s former defense
minister Elias el-Murr.
