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| The 13 candidates (photo from Aljazeera) |
Opinion
polls are giving no clear pointers as to who will be leading Egypt after presidential
elections set to be the freest the country has ever had.
Thirteen candidates are
listed for the May 23 and 24 vote after a contentious disqualification process.
If as expected no candidate takes an outright majority, a runoff
between the top two will take place June 16 and 17, and a president would be
declared on June 21.
The 13 presidential hopefuls
(see “Meet
the Candidates”) are:
1. Abdelmoneim
Abulfotouh, a practicing physician with extensive experience in
relief work at an international level, a prominent Islamist activist, and a
former leading Muslim Brotherhood figure
2. Abdullah
el-Ashal, an international law professor at the American
University in Cairo, an Islamist thinker and a veteran diplomat
3. Abul’ezz
el-Hariri, a member of parliament and a socialist and labor activist for the
last 45 years
4. Ahmed
Shafiq, a former commander of the Egyptian Air Force, diplomat and politician
who was appointed prime minister in the final days of Hosni Mubarak’s rule
5. Amr
Moussa, a career diplomat who served as ambassador to India and to the UN in
New York before being named foreign minister (1991-2001) first and then secretary-general
of the Arab League (2001-2011)
6. Hamdeen
Sabahi, a veteran Nasserite opposition figure and former legislator
7. Hisham
el-Bastawisi, a prominent reformist judge who played a crucial role in the
battle for judicial independence under Mubarak
8. Hossam
Khairallah, a career military officer with extensive experience in intelligence
and international conflict resolution
9. Khaled
Ali, a well-known lawyer and activist who made a name for himself promoting
social justice and defending the rights of workers, peasants and students over
two decades
10. Mahmoud
Hossam Eddine Galal, a little known former police officer and businessman
11. Mohamed
Fawzi Issa, a 1964 Police Academy graduate who earned an additional law degree
from Ain Shams University as well as a PhD in law in 1994
12. Mohamed
Mursi, an engineering professor who received extensive academic training in
the United States and is now president of the Muslim Brotherhood
13. Mohamed
Selim el-‘Awa, Islamist intellectual, writer and prominent commercial litigator
who holds diplomas in public and Islamic law and a PhD in philosophy from
London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS)
At the time of this
writing today, Friday, results of Egyptian expatriate
voting in the United Arab Emirates, Austria, Washington, France, Sudan and
Yemen were showing the race will come down to five candidates: Abulfotouh,
Moussa, Sabahi, Mursi and Shafiq.
Earlier, the last
weekly opinion poll by the Cairo-based Al-Ahram Centre for Political and
Strategic Studies put Moussa in the lead, followed by Shafiq, Abulfotouh, Mursi
and Sabahi.
The Baseera Center’s
survey put Shafiq first, followed by Moussa, Abulfotouh and Mursi.
Another poll, by the
Cabinet Information and Decision Support Center, had Shafiq, Moussa and
Abulfotouh running neck and neck ahead of Mursi and Sabahi.
According to Gallup
surveys released in Washington today, “Islamists appear to be losing steam
in the lead-up to Egypt's presidential election next week. Less than half of
Egyptians (42%) polled in April say they support the Muslim Brotherhood, a
noticeable decline from 63% who said the same in February. Support for
conservative Islamists, often referred to as ‘Salafis,’ is also down, but less dramatically.”
With the race so tight,
a runoff vote seems inevitable, pitting one of the two Islamists (Abulfotouh or
Mursi) against one of the three more liberal frontrunners: Sabahi, Shafiq or
Moussa.
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| CBC TV channel's logo |
Egyptian political analyst
and the Middle East’s pioneer talk show host Imad Adeeb, in his daily column
for Saudi Arabia’s Asharq Alawsat, gives his insight on the presidential
elections after heading a panel that analyzed a series of presidential debates
hosted by CBC (Capital Broadcasting
Center) a free-to-air TV channel broadcasting from Cairo.
He hails the upcoming vote
as a historic landmark for Egypt for four reasons. It is the first time in
Egypt’s history, he writes, that:
One, presidential
contenders are quizzed live by the media.
Two, candidates put
forward diverse presidential platforms to address Egypt’s problems.
Three, each candidate
tries to “market” himself and his platform on air.
Four, the Egyptian public
does not know its next president just five days ahead of voting.
“The determining factor in
these elections?”
In my opinion,” Adeeb
writes, “the determining factor is the participation or abstention of the main
body of apolitical and nonpartisan voters. They constitute at least 40 percent
of voters. The higher their participation, the lower the chances of Islamist
candidates. The greater their abstention, the more certain the victory of an
Islamist.”
