Egypt’s Brotherhood, wristwatch and volcano

Gen, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi

The head of Egypt's armed forces gave politicians 48 hours this late afternoon to answer demands made by the Egyptian people or the military would offer its own "roadmap for the future."

In a statement read on state television, General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi called mass protests on Sunday, which called for Islamist President Mohamed Mursi to resign, an "unprecedented" expression of the popular will.

Earlier this morning, the mass circulation newspaper al-Hayat published this think piece on Egypt penned in Arabic by its editor-in-chief Ghassan Charbel:

President Mohamed Morsi is entitled to say:

• He is the first civilian to be elected president in Egypt
• He entered the presidential palace on the strength of a popular vote rather than riding a tank
• With the exception of Ahmad Shafiq, opposition leaders Mohamed ElBaradei, Amr Moussa and Hamdeen Sabahi visited him at the Ittihadiya Palace
• The world recognized his legitimacy and welcomed him as president
• Egyptian voters mandated him for a full [four-year] term and it is improper to cut it short under street pressure.
• He is eligible to say all this, but his duty is also to check his watch.

Mohamed Morsi can say:

• He is not an isolated president
• The group he comes from has deep roots in Egyptian society
• Islamists won’t accept the removal of Egypt’s first Islamist president
• He is capable of mobilizing millions of loyalists in face of the opposition’s millions and he can get Brotherhood minders to guard the palace should the army equivocate on his protection.

Despite this, it’s the president’s duty to check his watch.

At the same time, the president can’t accuse the crowds gathered yesterday at Tahrir Square and opposite his palace of being remnants and thugs yearning for the former regime.

This gimmick has been so overused that it just doesn’t hold water today.

He can’t say the millions who signed the Tamarrud petition [demanding his resignation] are liberals involved in a Zionist-American plot to abort the revival plan he carried to the palace.

The president cannot deny his first year in office was marred by terrible chaos and growing splits at street level and by discontent among non-partisans who voted for him lest Shafiq’s victory led to the old regime’s restitution.

Likewise, the president cannot contest the figures of economic meltdown, soaring unemployment and poverty and declining services and security.

Nor can he disprove the impression that the Brotherhood’s first year in power unmasked its dearth of experience and qualified cadres and its incapacity to manage state affairs.

Two weeks ago my journalistic inquisitiveness took me on a visit to Egypt. I did not want to write about the big showdown there from afar.

The showdown concerns the Brothers in Egypt and everywhere else. It also relates to political Islam and the Arab Spring’s outcome.

I met with both opposition and Brotherhood leaders.

I sounded out media people and ordinary citizens who imagined the (25 January 2011) revolution would throw open the doors of hope, make bread more readily available, and revitalize Egypt so she can recoup her identity, spirit and soul.

On leaving Cairo in the evening, I was very concerned about the days ahead.

I felt millions of Egyptians were deeply perturbed, fearful as never before and primed to burst in anger.

One is nervous about Egypt going bankrupt.

Another is anxious about someone tampering with Egypt’s spirit.

A third says the Brotherhood regime is the “Mubarak regime but with Islamist features.”

A fourth suggests the state is eroding, that “Brotherhood-ization” will lead to internecine strife over “retrieving the revolution from those who stole it.”

A fifth suggests the army should make a move before the volcano erupts.

I also felt:

• Hosni Mubarak stunned Egyptians by his speedy downfall, catching political forces by surprise and unprepared
• The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) acted like someone grasping a hot coal but eager to pass it to someone else. As a result, SCAF took a rash decision and erred
• The Brothers -- rather than make a “big sacrifice” – chose to put their fate and Egypt’s on the line by contesting the presidential elections on the urging of a few of their careerist politicians.

Morsi misread the revolution’s messages and the mandate’s constrains. Mistakes piled up with mishandlings of the constitution, of the judiciary and of Egypt’s spirit and identity components.

The accumulation of mistakes rekindled the revolution’s hot ambers. The flowing lava presages a volcanic eruption.

The Brothers entered the presidential palace before their time, and their precipitous entry awakened the volcano.

It’s hard to see the Brothers cave in to Tamarrud’s protests.

What is certain though is that Morsi’s stay at the palace will prove exhausting to the Brotherhood and the country. There is nothing worse than sitting on the fringes of a volcano.

Egypt: “Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves”

Albert Robida illustration of the Forty Thieves (from Wikipedia)

“We were able to bring down Ali Baba. We now have to go after the Forty Thieves.”

Gamal Heshmat, undersecretary of the foreign affairs committee in Egypt’s newly elected parliament, was reacting in Cairo to the disaster that left 79 people dead and hundreds more maimed after a football match between top-tier clubs al-Masry and al-Ahly in Port Said last Wednesday.

He was borrowing from the folk tale in medieval Arabic literature of “Ali Baba and the Forty Thieves” to evoke the overthrow of former president Hosni Mubarak a year ago before pointing the finger of blame for the football catastrophe at Egypt’s ruling generals in the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF).

As the print and electronic media continue to show images and video clips of those fatally stabbed, bludgeoned or crushed to death and injured in the Port Said violence, the focus now is on holding SCAF and the Central Security Forces (CSF) to account.

The worst disaster in Egypt’s football history on February 1 has not stopped reverberating in Suez and Cairo street battles, leaving four people dead and more than a thousand injured by this writing today.

In an extraordinary session of Parliament on Thursday, several legislators -- including Amr Hamzawy, Mostafa El-Naggar, Mohamed Abu Hamed and Abu Ezz El-Hariri – accused SCAF of being responsible for the violence, demanding that it hand over power to a civilian authority as soon as possible.

Some MPs echoed the sentiments of protesters by demanding the end of military rule, either by holding presidential elections earlier than the scheduled date of June 2012, or by the appointment of a national salvation government to assume power until a civilian president is elected.

"There is a political crisis because SCAF has lost its legitimacy, which it originally gained on February 11 by the power of the people," said liberal MP Hamzawy during the session. "The main reason why SCAF assumed power was to end the bloodshed [during the revolution] and that hasn't happened yet."

The Moslem Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party, which dominates parliament, detected "invisible planning" behind "this unjustified massacre" in an online statement. But its most prominent representative, Essam al-Erian, said the ruling military and police were complicit. Their aim, he believed, was to show the need to maintain restrictive emergency laws.

Most of the dead at Port Said stadium were al-Ahly supporters. Hardcore fans - known as "Ultras" - have accused SCAF and SCF of allowing the killings to happen.

They say the authorities wanted revenge because the Ultras were among those battling army and police forces during last year's revolution that toppled Mubarak.

Ahram Online has a very informative news feature (and a series of 10 videos) on Egyptian football’s Ultras that are now strongly involved in the country’s heated domestic affairs.

According to Ahram Online writer Sherif Tarek:

Capitalizing on their physical and organizational capabilities, the flamboyant youth Ultras have featured prominently in recurring confrontations with security forces, and also took part in protests — though not all — throughout the year 2011.

But much as their out-of-stadium appearances gave momentum to events that politically impacted Egypt over the past few months, the motives of the Ultras as a group can barely be deemed political…

During the 18-day revolt last year, Ultras members decided to hit the streets as individuals. However, they became noticed as a group.

Particularly, Ultras Ahlawy and Zamalek’s White Knights soldiered on in Tahrir Square in the face of brutal attacks from the notorious CSF and hired thugs who assaulted and killed protesters in the infamous Battle of the Camel.

Much to their pride and in most battles, members of the fanatic fan bases vanquished the deposed regime’s police personnel and thugs, who eventually failed to nip the uprising in the bud...

At the time, bringing about political upheaval was not really what enthused the Ultras. Rather, the impulse was to lock horns with their archenemies, the police, to avenge abuses they had previously suffered under Mubarak’s security apparatus.

The same urge has ever since remained their primary motive to join political rallies…

On the “Friday of Correcting the Path” on September 9, eight months after the revolution, Ultras Ahlawy and the White Knights made their most sturdy and sensational return to Tahrir Square, the focal point of the January uprising.

On that day, other protesters called for the fulfillment of many demands, such as retribution against those who killed peaceful demonstrators during the revolution and the end of military trials for civilians. The Ultras groups, on the other hand, were there for a dispute with the Interior Ministry.

Their main demand was the release of their cohorts who were arrested three days earlier following a brawl that had erupted with the CSF after the final whistle of an Ahly cup match.

That post-match scuffle reportedly took place when the CSF assaulted Ahly’s Ultras in the stands and arrested some of them, apparently because they cursed Mubarak and former Interior Minister Habib el-Adly in the dying minutes of the game.

While protesting the incident, the Ultras vociferously chanted again against the infamous pair throughout Tahrir and all the way to the nearby Ministry of Interior headquarters…

“All demonstrators always welcome the Ultras members in Tahrir Square,” Ahmed Ezzat, general coordinator of the Popular Committees for Protecting the Revolution, told Ahram Online. “They are highly organized and are not looking for any media attention,” he added. “They have the tendency to struggle in hard times; they are perceived to be comrades in the project of the revolution and have robustly supported the revolutionaries all along.”

***

The morning after the Massacre at Port Said, renowned journalist and author Dima Khatib, contributed an op-ed piece for Counterfire on the prominent role played by the “Ultras” in the Egyptian revolution and speculation of regime complicity in the crowd violence at the Port Said match.

Ms Khatib wrote for Counterfire:

Do you remember this (video)?

Let me refresh your memory. It was on the 2 February 2011, one year ago. Thugs on camels, horses and donkeys, which came all the way from the Pyramids, about 17 kilometers away, attacked Tahrir Square. These clashes that lasted for hours and hours, being watched live on TV all over the world, came to be known as the Camel Battle. It was an unforgettable day in Egypt's 18 days of protests that ended up with toppling Hosni Mubarak on 11 February 2011. 





The pitch invasion in Port Said (photo from albawaba.com)

Now look at this (Port Said video dated 1 February 2012).

So one year later, at a football stadium in the city of Port Said, chaos breaks after a football match and somehow violence ends up with a death toll of almost 80 people and 300 more injured! Now going back to that famous Camel Battle a year ago, anyone who was there that day in Tahrir would tell you that the Ultras showed amazing bravery in standing up to the thugs and protecting the protesters from them. Yes. I am talking about football Ultras who usually spend their time and energy cheering and chanting for football teams. In fact Egypt's Ultras have played a very important role in the Revolution, not just on 2 February. They were there from day 1 (25 January 2011) chanting, leading and protecting the protesters. I did not know about them until I went to Egypt after Mubarak's fall. It was on 19 June 2011 that I first met an Ultra. It was on 19 June 2011 that I first heard an anti-SCAF slogan too, chanted by the Ultra.

It was outside the Military Prosecution's Office. A very small group of activists were gathered while journalist and activist Rasha Azab was being questioned inside. Civilians like Rasha were being tried, in the thousands, in military courts. The Ultra was chanting: Down with the Military Rule. I was impressed with his energy and internal force, especially in the heat of midday. I was melting in the sun while he never stopped chanting for the whole time that I was there. Hardly anyone back then dared chant against the military, or even dared have bad thoughts about the military. The military was the one that "saved the day," "saved the people from Mubarak," "safeguarded the revolution," etc. The Army of Egypt was sacred in the heads of Egyptians.

 


By early July many more were chanting against the military rule and were camped in Tahrir Square. Ultras were there too. One of them got me a tent to rest in on the first night while I was doing a Night in Tahrir story for Aljazeera about the sit-in. He stood outside the tent to make sure nobody would harm or bother me. Many female protesters told me they felt safer when Ultras were around because they were brave and were "real men.”


Now back to the present. So many Ultras are dead. Surprisingly -- or maybe not surprisingly -- from al-Ahly football club. Al-Ahly Ultras have been among the most vocal and most active revolutionaries. As the news travelled around the world about those Ultras being killed and injured, many probably thought: oh this was just another hooligans’ fight!

But in Egypt conspiracy theories and accusations grew louder and louder on TV stations and social media. Let's not forget that Egyptians have had quite an eventful week since 25 January 2012 when more people than ever before turned up at Tahrir Square. That was followed by a major bank robbery, clashes between protesters and Muslim Brotherhood supporters outside parliament, continued sit-in outside State TV, etc.

In the beginning of this video you can see clearly how security forces stood by watching while violence was breaking at the stadium. Such footage coupled with countless accounts by witnesses with details of how things turned ugly only came to emphasize people's doubts that the ultras may have been targeted. Whether or not that is true, the damage is already done. As the train from Port Said arrived at Cairo Station after 3 a.m., carrying some of the Ultras, including injured ones, their family members and friends were waiting to see who would come out of the train, alive. Some did come out, safe and sound. Others came out injured. But some did not make it! It was a very emotional moment. And thousands were gathered at the station.

The chanting was becoming louder and clearer:
"Either we get their rights, or we die like them,"
 "Down with the Military Rule," "The People Want to Execute the Field Marshall."





Minister Ghazi el-Aridi

Ambulances took the injured to hospitals while the Ultras marched on to Tahrir Square, a square they know very well, a square where they have survived many battles before and are ready for any new ones to come.

***

Lebanese MP and government minister Ghazi el-Aridi wonders in a write-up on Egypt for today’s edition of the UAE daily al-Itihad whether we are now watching the fire and brimstone of the revolution there or the revolution burning down. I suspect the former, at least until a new civilian president is duly elected later this year to succeed Mubarak.

UN chief on Iran, Assad, Mubarak and Saleh

Raghida Dergham

UN chief Ban Ki-moon says assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists are “terrorist deeds,” adding: “Any assassination of civilians or scientists should be condemned and spurned to uphold human rights.”

Raghida Dergham, U.S.-based senior diplomatic correspondent for pan-Arab daily al-Hayat, today quotes the secretary-general as telling her on the plane from New York to Beirut:

• “The onus is on Iran to prove its nuclear program is in truth for peaceful purposes. They have to prove and substantiate this.”
• Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani told me at our last meeting in New York he would be coming back “together with Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby to brief the Security Council (presumably about the Syria observer mission).” Navi Pillay, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, “will next week begin to train” Arab observers to Syria. My coordination with Elaraby is ongoing. “I cooperate with him closely and continuously. We consult on how best the UN and Arab League can address this matter.”
• Syrian President Bashar al-Assad “lost his legitimacy and should stop killing his people… And he has to initiate bold reform measures before it is too late,” since “there’s always room for redress so civil war in Syria does not become inevitable.”
• “The current situation in Syria could have serious repercussions on peace and stability in Lebanon.”
• “As a matter of principle,” I would not endorse the call (by prosecutors and civil rights lawyers) for a death sentence for Egypt’s former president Hosni Mubarak. "The United Nations passed a resolution” declaring a global moratorium on capital punishment.
• Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh “should fully implement the commitment he made to his people alongside the Gulf Cooperation Council.”