Can 'friends' keep Syrian National Coalition whole?

The Core Group of the Friends of Syria -- better known as the “London 11” -- will devote their Sunday, January 12, meeting in Paris to sweet-talk Syria’s opposition umbrella organization into attending the Geneva-2 conference.

Reporting today from the French capital for the Saudi newspaper of records Asharq Alawsat, Michel Abu Najm quotes official French sources as saying they are “aware of the threats facing the Syrian National Coalition’s future and are familiar with its sensitive position and the difficulty of choosing between participating or boycotting the Geneva-2 conference.”

Abu Najm also quotes opposition sources as confirming the National Council risks splintering into factions after more than half its 121 members served notice this week they would walk away if the Council opted to sit at the Syria peace table in the Swiss resort of Montreux on January 22 (see my previous post, “The Syrian National Coalition is on its last leg”).

The different factions in the National Coalition were unable to reach an agreement on participation at two days of talks in Istanbul this week and postponed a decision on the issue until January 17.

The Syrian National Council, the main 28-member group in the National Coalition, is threatening to boycott the peace talks unless it has assurances that President Bashar al-Assad will be forced to give up power.

The Syrian government has said it will attend the talks but that Assad's departure is not up for negotiation.

The 11-nation core group of the “Friends of Syria” consists of Britain, Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and the United States.

A statement by the Quai d’Orsay says Sunday’s meeting of the London 11 in Paris “will be chaired by Laurent Fabius, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and will take place in the presence of a Syrian National Coalition delegation led by its recently re-elected president, Ahmad al-Jarba.

“This meeting will allow us to reaffirm our full support for the Syrian National Coalition and, in the run-up to the Geneva II conference, to reiterate our shared vision of a political transition addressing the Syrian people’s legitimate aspirations. The creation of a transitional government body with full executive powers is the central objective of the Geneva II conference.

“At a time when the regime’s headlong pursuit of repression against the people continues to aggravate the humanitarian situation, this ministerial meeting will signal our desire to provide increased help to the Syrian National Coalition and the Syrian people, particularly in the liberated areas.”

In context, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon wrote in part in his January 6 invitation letter to participants in the Geneva-2 conference:

…I am now convening the Geneva Conference on Syria, and am pleased to invite you to attend the high-level international meeting that will launch the Conference.

The Conference aims to assist the Syrian parties in ending the violence and achieving a comprehensive agreement for a political settlement, implementing fully the Geneva Communiqué, while preserving the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Syria. The Communiqué contains Principles and Guidelines for a Syrian-led transition. These set out a number of key steps, beginning with agreement on a transitional governing body with full executive powers, formed by mutual consent. As the Geneva Communiqué says, the public services must be preserved or restored. This includes the military forces and security and intelligence services. All governmental institutions and state offices must perform according to professional and human rights standards, operating under a top leadership that inspires public confidence, under the control of the transitional governing body.

The Geneva Conference on Syria will convene under my chairmanship, first in an international high-level format over one day at Montreux, Switzerland, on 22 January 2014, beginning at 9 a.m. Negotiations between the two Syrian parties, facilitated by the Joint Special Representative for Syria, Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, will follow immediately in Geneva on 24 January 2014. Adjournments and subsequent meetings may take place in accordance with a work plan to be agreed. The high-level international meeting may resume its deliberations as required.

I am confident the international participants who gather in Montreux will offer meaningful support for constructive negotiations between the Syrian parties in Geneva. I am sure that all present will do their utmost to encourage the Syrian parties to reach a comprehensive settlement, fully implementing the Geneva Communiqué, within an accelerated time frame. In addition to participation in the high-level meeting, it may be necessary to call upon you to assist further as the negotiations between the Syrian parties progress.

In inviting the Syrian parties, I have reminded them that the Security Council has called on them to engage seriously and constructively at the Conference, and underscored that they should be broadly representative and committed to the implementation of the Geneva Communiqué and to the achievement of stability and reconciliation. I have also reminded the Syrian parties that, consistent with the Geneva Communiqué as well as Security Council resolution 1325 (2000) and other relevant resolutions (Annex II), full and effective participation of women is essential.

I look forward to confirmation of attendance of your delegation, and the list of delegates and advisers, at your earliest convenience.

Confirmation of attendance will be taken as commitment to the aims of the Conference stated above, in accordance with the Geneva Communiqué, in particular the Principles and Guidelines for a Syrian-led Transition contained in it.

The Office of the Joint Special Representative will provide a technical information note in due course.

The conflict in Syria has raged for too long, and has imposed too many sacrifices on the people of Syria. The Government and all parties must allow immediate and full humanitarian access to all conflict-affected areas. The violence must be ended expeditiously. All attacks against civilians should cease. All parties must work to put an end to all terrorist acts. The Geneva Conference offers a unique avenue towards these ends. I am deeply grateful for your cooperation in this venture, to help ensure that peace can be restored and the transition foreseen in the Geneva Communiqué can be implemented in a way that fully meets the aspirations of the Syrian people…

"Syria and her friends" in 138 seconds

The fierce battle for Qusayr will drag out

Computer screen for remote-controlled sniper rifle (top) and a hand portable Bgan terminal (below)

The Lebanese daily al-Akhbar -- which speaks for the “Axis of Resistance” grouping the Syrian regime, Hezbollah and Iran -- concedes today the fierce battle for Qusayr will be long-drawn-out.

The Syrian army, backed by hundreds of Lebanese Hezbollah militiamen, has been trying for nearly a week to regain control of Qusayr, a strategic town in Homs province held by rebels for over a year.

The town is vital for both the Syrian regime and the Lebanese paramilitary group. The city is a strategic link in the Syrian communications chain, connecting the capital Damascus, Syria's Alawite-dominated coastal highlands, and Hezbollah's heartland in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. The Lebanese border is only 10 kilometers to the city's west, and the Damascus-Aleppo highway lies to its east.

Underlining its importance, the Syrian National Coalition issued an impassioned plea to supporters to send men and weapons to help defend Qusayr, where an estimated 2,000 fighters and as many as 30,000 civilians endured a fourth day of relentless air bombardment and tank shelling by government troops and their Hezbollah allies yesterday.

George Sabra, the acting head of the Syrian National Coalition, also called on the international community to establish a humanitarian corridor to help civilians and wounded trapped inside the town.

Also overnight, the 11-nation core group of the “Friends of Syria” alliance denounced Hezbollah operations in Qusayr and called on Iran and Hezbollah to withdraw fighters immediately from Syrian territory, describing their armed presence in the country as a threat to regional stability. (The Joint Statement of the Participating Countries in the Amman Ministerial Meeting on Syria is published in full below.)

In his news feature for today’s edition of al-Akhbar, journalist Radwan Mortada explains why the battle for Qusayr will be protracted.

Following are edited excerpts from his piece:

Qusayr did not fall.

Everyone inside the town is unsure if better or worse days are ahead.

One side recounts tales of “challenge and steadfastness.”

The other side boasts of “advances on the ground and troops mopping up the last pockets of resistance.”

Most of the opposition’s armed rebels entrenched in Qusayr continue to move freely from one hideout to another.

Power supplies are cut off, but the rebels use power generators and communications equipment to remain in touch with armed groups outside Qusayr, call in reinforcements, relay news to the media, post videos online of the clashes and bombardments.

All the rebels’ communications are via Bgan (Broadband Global Area Network) portable satellites connected to laptops or smartphones.

They also use Inmarsat.

Opposition sources tell al-Akhbar the rebels have set up a Military Command in which all heads of brigades fighting in Qusayr are represented. They say Lt. Col. Mohieddeen al-Zein (aka “Abu Arab”) heads the Command.

His key aides include al-Farouq Brigade’s “Abu Ali” and Jabhat al-Nusra’s “Abul Baraa.”

The latter believes the battle will be drawn out. He says, “War is trickery… We tricked Assad troops and Hezbollah fighters to venture into some alleyways where everything is booby-trapped, including homes, hideouts, shelters, trenches and barricades… We got them there.”

But the rebels also complain of shortages in medical facilities and supplies saying, “The field hospital was totally destroyed. We have to carry the wounded on our shoulders for treatment in homes.”

On the opposite (Assad loyalists’) side, sources familiar with military operations in Qusayr say, “The offensive was hampered by the enormous number of booby traps” and “camouflaged cameras monitoring strategic positions and the main roads in the area.”

The sources also say the rebels deployed sophisticated “remote-controlled sniper rifles” that use computer screens for monitoring, tracking and targeting.

Whereas the sources expect the battle for Qusayr to be won within days,  “hopefully before Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on Saturday,” other information suggests “an unqualified victory will need more time.”

Joint Statement of the Participating Countries in the

Amman Ministerial Meeting on Syria

The Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar and the Foreign Ministers of Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, U.A.E., U.K., USA and Jordan came together in Amman on May 22nd 2013 to deliberate on the developments in Syria and to reemphasize their support to find a political solution to the crisis in Syria. The representatives from the leadership of the Syrian National Coalition of the Revolutionary and Opposition Forces also attended part of the meeting, and briefed the Ministers on the situation inside Syria.

The Ministers reviewed their discussions in the Rome meeting of February 28th 2013, and recalled the joint statement of Istanbul of April 20th 2013 that supports a political solution in Syria on the basis of the Geneva Communiqué of June 30th 2012.

The Ministers supported the participation in the Geneva meeting for the purpose of the full implementation of the outcomes of the first Geneva meeting to end the bloodshed, fulfill the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people, preserve the territorial integrity of the country, and strengthen the national unity amongst all components of the Syrian national fabric. The Ministers emphasized the central role of the United Nations Security Council in the realization of this effort.

The Ministers condemned in the strongest terms the use of heavy weapons including ballistic missiles against the people, and deplored the ethnic cleansing that the regime is pursuing as seen recently in Banias, and declared that such crimes will not go unpunished.

The Ministers stressed that the political process to reflect positively and tangibly on the daily lives of the Syrian civilian population, including the release of prisoners, the delivery of humanitarian assistance and end the killing of civilians.

The Ministers identified as the corner stone of a political solution the formation of a transitional governing body through mutual consent, within a defined and agreed upon timeframe, to assume full executive authority, including all powers of the Presidency in addition to control over the armed forces and the security and intelligence apparatuses, for an agreed upon and defined timeframe for the transitional period. The Ministers affirmed that the final objective of the transitional period should include the adoption of a new Syrian constitution that guarantees the equal rights of all citizens.

The Ministers underlined that the attainment of the political solution that meets the aspirations of the Syrian people means, as stated in the Abu Dhabi joint statement of the May 13th 2013, that Assad, his regime, and his close associates with blood on their hands cannot play any role in the future of Syria.

The Ministers reiterated their support to the Syrian National Coalition of the Revolutionary and Opposition Forces and welcomed the efforts by the Coalition to expand their base of representation to include all components of Syrian society, and emphasized the central and leading role of the Coalition in the opposition delegation to the anticipated international conference on Syria. Furthermore, the Ministers reiterated the right to self-defense of the Syrian people, and committed to offer additional support to reinforce the role and capacity of the Supreme Military Council (SMC).

The Ministers expressed their strong concern over the increasing presence and growing radicalism on both sides of the conflict and terrorist elements in Syria; a matter that deepens the concerns for the future of Syria, threatens the security of neighboring countries and risks destabilizing the wider region and the world.

The Ministers denounced the intervention of foreign combatants fighting on behalf of the regime, and consider their presence a flagrant intervention on Syrian territory and a serious threat to regional stability. In this context, the Ministers stressed in particular the operations conducted by Hezbollah in Qusayr and elsewhere and called for the immediate withdrawal of Hezbollah, fighters from Iran, and other regime allied foreign fighters from Syrian territory.

The Ministers expressed their deep concern over the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Syria, as well as the threat they pose to the stability and security of neighboring countries hosting Syrian refugees. They underlined the importance of cross border humanitarian operations and called upon the international community to support host countries to address the pressures arising from hosting refugees based on the principles of burden sharing and to prevent any implications for international peace and security.

The Ministers viewed with extreme concern the growing number of reports and strong indications of the use of chemical weapons by the regime in Syria. The Ministers emphasized the importance of enabling the UN to conduct a comprehensive investigation regarding the use of such weapons. The Ministers stressed that there will be severe consequences if these reports are confirmed.

The Ministers also emphasized that until such time as the Geneva meeting produces a transitional government, they will further increase their support for the opposition and take all other steps as necessary.

Finally, the Ministers agreed to strengthen cooperation and coordination among themselves and with international partners to ensure the successful convening of the international conference leading to a political solution to the Syrian crisis.

Marketing of Geneva-2 kicks off in Amman

Kerry and Lavrov, the architects of Geneva-2

John Kerry and the 10 other members of the “Friends of Syria” core group are meeting in Amman today to push for a Geneva-2 conference the U.S. secretary of state consented to with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

The Geneva framework envisages bringing together representatives of Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian opposition to agree a joint “transitional government with full executive powers” to end more than two years of internecine strife.

The “Friends of Syria” sitting with Kerry at the Amman meeting are the foreign ministers of Germany, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, the UAE and Egypt.

Like most Syrians and Syria-watchers, two Arab political analysts still have their misgivings about the proposed Geneva-2, which they sum up in a sentence each.

• “Circumstances have changed, and so has the friendship,” Iyad Abu Shakra writes for Saudi Arabia’s leading daily Asharq Alawsat.
• “Geneva-2 places the Syrian opposition between two fires,” Ms Bahia Mardini suggests in a think piece for Elaph, the first independent online Arab newspaper.

In the view of Abu Shakra, who specialized in Middle Eastern Studies at The University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS):

Does Syria have any friends left?

The question is relevant in the countdown to the meeting in Amman of the 11 members making up the “Friends of Syria” core group.

Above all, what are some of the “Friends of Syria” exactly after? And can all those sitting at the Amman round-table be described as friends?

The Syrian uprising is today looking for friends right and left but hardly finding any who would bring to a close the Syrian regime’s crackdown and its rush to partition Syria by blitzing Homs city and the rural areas of Homs province.

With due respect to the true “friends” who are being pressured by global kingmakers, a majority of partakers in Amman today will hopefully recognize that the Syrian people deserve some measure of truthfulness and a greater measure of courage in the face of those conspiring against them.

Honestly, is there any hope of Assad and his inner circle stepping aside with Lavrov tailoring a Syria solution and towing Kerry along by the hand?

Can any brainy observer imagine Tehran – which has been investing men, money, arms and all sorts of services in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon for three decades – simply turn its back, walk away and bury its regional ambitions?

Frankly, no one will answer the questions positively, save for Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, and perhaps John Kerry.

According to Ms Mardini:

The Syrian opposition is sitting hesitantly between the two fires of a political solution.

One fire would char her if she accepted to sit with the Assad regime after it killed at least 80,000 Syrians.

The other fire would scorch her internationally if she refused, given that the chances of American intervention are zilch and the Syria crisis has now gone into the international bazaar.

Background briefing

Overnight, a senior State Department official gave reporters a background briefing on Kerry’s trip to Amman.

I have excerpted remarks the official made in the course of the curtain raiser (that you can read in full here):

(The meeting in Amman) is basically to review where we are on Syria, and obviously there’s going to be a discussion both about the situation on the ground in the country. I’m sure there will be a discussion of the refugee situation since the Turkish and Jordanian foreign ministers will be there. There will certainly be a discussion about Geneva, and there’ll be a discussion about what things our countries need to be doing in the days and weeks ahead. So it is part of an ongoing set of discussions. It is not by itself a particularly – it’s not a place where we’re coming to make big decisions because we’re in touch with these countries regularly anyway.

+++

With respect to Geneva and the opposition’s attendance, I don’t think any of the different opposition elements have yet announced definitively whether or not they will attend. And of course, the opposition, the political opposition, is in the middle of meetings right now in Istanbul to pick a new leadership. So we will work intensely with that new leadership in the run-up to Geneva.

+++

Let me say a couple of things about the fighting in Qusayr, which is up near Homs. It’s southwest of the city of Homs. It is the most visible effort we have seen of Hezbollah to engage directly in the fighting in Syria as a foreign force. We understand there are also Iranians up there. That is what the Free Syrian Army commanders are telling us. I think this is an important thing to note, the direct implication of foreigners fighting on Syrian soil now for the regime.

+++

With respect to the Syrian regime’s strategy leading up to Geneva, I would just say that we have long said – and the Secretary has said – that it is important to change Bashar al-Assad’s calculations in order to get to a political settlement and that the balance on the ground – the military balance on the ground is a huge factor in those calculations, and we understand that. And so one of the things we’ll be talking about here in Amman tomorrow is what else needs to be done with respect to the military balance on the ground.

+++

For us, the important thing is for (Assad regime) to understand the purpose of this new meeting in Geneva is to discuss how to implement fully – and I want to emphasize those words – how to implement fully the Geneva communiqué, which stipulates that there will be a transition governing body established with full executive authority, including over the military and the security apparatus and that will be established by mutual consent.

+++

The final invite list for the Geneva conference is still being worked on. It’ll be an issue tomorrow, I am sure, on the agenda of the 11 foreign ministers meeting here in Jordan. But also we have to talk to countries that are not here. We’ll certainly have to talk to the Russians more, and we’ll have to talk also to the United Nations because they very well will have a big role. And so that final attendance list is still under discussion.

+++

The Syrian opposition has been invited to Amman, both Gen. (Salim) Idriss or a representative from him for the Supreme Military Command as well as the political opposition. So they’ve both been invited. I’m not sure exactly yet who is attending.

+++

Certainly there are (arms) contracts that predate the outbreak of the Syrian revolution that the Russians are delivering equipment under. Of course, that doesn’t mean that they couldn’t suspend deliveries given the extraordinary circumstances in which Syria now finds itself, but legalistically, they are correct; these are old contracts.

Half-full, half-empty glass for Syrian Coalition

Davutoglu and Kerry

In a statement concluding talks among the pro-opposition "Friends of Syria" group in Istanbul, Secretary of State John Kerry announced Washington’s intention to double non-lethal assistance to the Syrian opposition, as well as provide additional humanitarian aid to Syrians in need.

The State Department says in a written statement:

The new non-lethal assistance underscores the United States’ firm support for a political solution to the crisis in Syria and for the opposition’s advancement of an inclusive, tolerant vision for a post-Assad Syria.

The United States will work with the Syrian Coalition and other opposition representatives to determine how the new $123 million in non-lethal assistance can best support their efforts to meet the needs of the Syrian people and lead the way to a political transition that will bring an end to this conflict, and build the inclusive, democratic Syria that its people deserve.

This new pledge brings our total non-lethal assistance to the Syrian opposition and civil society groups to $250 million.

The United States will also use a portion of this non-lethal assistance to implement President Obama’s directive to provide an expanded range of support to the Supreme Military Council (SMC). We intend to expand this new support beyond military food rations and medical kits to include other types of non-lethal supplies, which would be determined in collaboration with SMC leadership.

Secretary Kerry urged international partners gathered in Istanbul, as well as all Friends of the Syrian People, to make similar pledges of assistance to the Coalition and the Supreme Military Council with the goal of reaching $1 billion in total international support for the opposition.

In recognition of the devastating humanitarian situation as a result of the crisis in Syria, Secretary Kerry also announced nearly $25 million in additional food assistance for the Syrian people.

This aid will provide 25,500 metric tons of wheat – providing four months’ supply of flour to over one million people – as well as food rations for those inside Syria and refugees in Jordan affected by the violence.

The United Nations World Food Program will begin distributing the wheat to those in need in all 14 Syrian governorates as quickly as possible.

The United States is the largest donor of food assistance both within Syria and for refugees in the affected neighboring countries and is providing a total of over $409 million in humanitarian assistance for the Syrian crisis.

But the U.S. pledge fell short of opposition demands for foreign backers to supply the rebels with arms, institute a no-fly zone and carry out airstrikes on positions used by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to launch ballistic missiles on civilian areas.

Top diplomats from the 11-nation core group of the "Friends of Syria" -- including the United States, Turkey, Britain, Italy, Germany, France, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and the UAE -- took part in the more than six hours of talks in Istanbul on Saturday.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu later told a joint press conference with Kelly that two documents were distributed to the media representatives.

One is a declaration by the Syrian National Coalition envisioning Syria’s future, and the second is a joint statement by the 11 foreign ministers.

The full text of the latter statement is nowhere to be found on the Internet today, not even the Turkish Foreign Ministry’s website or Facebook page.

But according to newswire excerpts, the 11 ministers:

• Reaffirmed firm support for a political solution in Syria based on the June 2012 Geneva communiqué.
• Restated that Assad and his close associates have no place in Syria’s future and must cede power to a transitional executive body.
• Welcomed the Arab League decision to transfer Syria’s seat to the Coalition.
• Warned that foreign support for the opposition would grow if Assad continued to rebuff efforts to find a political solution to Syria's crisis. "If the Syrian regime rejects this opportunity, further announcements regarding expanding our assistance will follow.”
• Welcomed the Coalition's "firm rejection of extremism and its commitment not to use chemical weapons.”
• Recognized the "need to change the balance of power on the ground" and pledged to "enhance and expand their support to all coalition institutions," including increased support to the coalition's Supreme Military Council.
• Urged the United Nations to immediately investigate “allegations” chemical weapons had been used in Syria, promising "severe consequences" if the claims proved to be true.

Russia, U.S. and “Friends” get SNC slap in the face

The Syrian National Coalition, the country’s opposition umbrella group, has finally given Russia, the United States and the so-called “Friends of Syria” group a kick in the teeth.

The Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces said it was turning down invitations to visit Moscow and Washington and suspending participation in the “Friends of Syria” conference due in Rome next month.

In a statement posted on its Facebook page late Friday night, the National Coalition described the deathlike “silence of the international community over daily crimes committed against our people” as “complicity in the slaughter of Syrians throughout the past two years.”

The statement said, “Hundreds of defenseless civilians are being killed by Scud missiles.

“Aleppo, the city of history and civilization, is being systematically destroyed.

“Add to this millions of refugees and displaced and hundreds of thousands of detainees, wounded and orphans.

"In protest against such shameless international stance, the coalition leadership decided to suspend its participation in the ‘Friends of Syria’ conference in Rome and to turn down invitations to visit Russia and the United States.

“We hold the Russian leadership ethically and politically responsible for the most part because they continue to back the (Damascus) regime with arms.

“We also urge people around the world to regard the week of March 15-22, which marks the Syrian revolution’s second anniversary, as a week of mourning and protest.”

Kuwait’s Muslim scholar Dr. Ghazi al-Tawbah, writing for Aljazeera.net last week, wondered if “Friends of Syria” conferences were not in reality meetings of “enemies.”

The Syrian opposition, he said, has been telling its “friends” for two years -- at successive meetings in Tunis, Istanbul, Paris and Marrakesh -- what it needs to protect the Syrian people.

All the Syrian opposition got in return was “hollow promises.”

Dr. Tawbah wrote, “Opposition leaders told their hosts opposition forces needed some qualitative weapons to face tanks and warplanes. They said setting up an interim government needed safe zones and a budget of $500 million to meet the Syrian people’s needs. They explained the Syrian people suffered 60,000 fatalities, 140,000 wounded, 60,000 disappeared, 140,000 detainees, 720,000 refugees, two million displaced and four million in need of humanitarian aid.”

The “friends” having offered zilch, “we are justified to ask: Were these ‘Friends of Syria’ conferences in the past two years meant to be meetings with the friends or enemies of Syria?”

Friends, Dr. Tawbah opined, “are supposed to answer their friends’ pleas. But why is that not so with Syria of all the Arab Spring countries?”

Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia’s analyst, author and kingpin of the impending Al Arab TV news channel writing today for pan-Arab al-Hayat, says, “Raising funds nowadays is tough, given the global economic slowdown.

“At the (January 30) Kuwait conference, the United Nations sought to raise $1,2 billion in humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). Since then, it received not more than 20% of the pledges made.

“So who is going to come up with the billions needed to rebuild Syria?

“Even if Bashar (al-Assad) were to succeed in putting down his people’s revolution, the region’s states and leaders won’t rehabilitate him or return him to their fold. Nor will they bear the cost of seeing him survive without victory or defeat.

“Accordingly, it is time to focus on the benefits of seeing him out and the establishment of a friendly, democratic and popular regime. All regional countries will draw benefit from this happening, except Iran.

“If truth were told though, losing Syria is better for Iran long-term. Losing Syria would bring Iran down to reality instead of continuing to live its pipedream of reversing 1,400 years of history. Iran would revert to its regional size, concentrating on its people’s wellbeing.”

With Assad’s exit, Khashoggi continues, “Jordan would be relieved of its northern neighbor’s plots and resultant security and intelligence costs. It would have a neighborly country complementing its economy and agriculture. Jordan and the new Syria would connect with Lebanon in a Bilad al-Sham economic triumvirate without border or regime change.

“Saudi Arabia would also be relieved of security strains the Baathist regime posed on and off in Lebanon or in connivance with Iran – this, without Saudi Arabia being able to isolate, or dissociate from, Syria.

“After all, Syria represents Saudi Arabia’s strategic and economic expanse and its doorway to Turkey and Europe.

“A free, democratic Syria with a market economy would certainly be good news for Saudi Arabia.”

Khashoggi says if Turkey and the Arabs choose to boost their support of the Syrian people, they could induce U.S. President Barack Obama not to wait any longer and to put his weight behind the Syrian revolution independently of the UN Security Council.

“Precedents of ‘Special Operations’ behind the Security Council’s back are many,” Khashoggi remarks.

Damascus clobbers “Friends of Syria”

“All sorts of enemies of Syria and its people met for the fourth time – at a jamboree in Marrakesh on this occasion.

“They discussed ways of killing additional Syrians by perpetuating acts of terror that are claiming the lives of scores of innocents among them every day.

“They declared their unwavering backing of terrorism, which is shedding the Syrians’ blood and is being perpetrated by extremist elements connected to the terrorist organization, al-Qaeda.

“The terrorist alliance resolutions, which were drafted in advance by U.S.-led schemers of Western aggression, betray the alliance’s resolve to prevent and abort any peace settlement (in Syria)…”

The wording is by President Bashar al-Assad’s state-run news agency SANA and is parroted this morning by his official mouthpiece, al-Baath daily under the headline, “Enemies of Syria jamboree in Marrakesh endorses terror.”

It comes the morning after the “Friends of Syria” group of more than 100 nations and organizations called for Assad to step down and formally recognized the Syrian National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition forces as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius called the conference meeting in Marrakesh, Morocco, "extraordinary progress." He noted that the European Union is now renewing its weapons embargo on Syria every three months, rather than annually, to be more flexible as the situation on the ground changes.

"We want to have the ability to continue or to change our attitude on this point. The fact that the coalition, which is asking for the right to defend itself, is now being recognized by a hundred countries — yesterday the United States and first by France -- I think this is a very important point."

The conference's final statement said Assad has lost all legitimacy and also warned that any use of chemical weapons "would draw a serious response" from the international community.

But the text made no explicit commitment to arm the opposition.

"I believe that of all the meetings we have had so far for the Friends of Syria, this will turn out to be the most significant," British Foreign Secretary William Hague said at the final news conference.

"With every day that passes, the regime's hold on power weakens. Territory slips from its grasp. The opposition becomes more unified and organized," said U.S. Deputy Secretary of State for the Middle East William Burns.

"We look to the coalition to continue creating more formal structures within the opposition and to accelerate planning for a democratic political transition that protects the rights, the dignity and the aspirations of all Syrians and all communities," Burns said.

He also announced the leadership of the Syrian National Coalition has been invited to visit Washington “at the earliest opportunity.”

Conference members made public new humanitarian assistance for Syrians, including $100 million from Saudi Arabia and a fund to be managed by Germany and the United Arab Emirates for the reconstruction of the country after Assad’s exit. The U.S. announced $14 million in humanitarian aid as well.

Khatib

In his speech at the conference, Syrian National Coalition president Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib called on the international community to shoulder its moral and humanitarian responsibilities.

“Specifically, the Coalition demands:

1. That the Coalition be acknowledged as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people and be given all the ensuing prerogatives.
2. Financial, medical and humanitarian assistance to be able to alleviate enduring suffering that is augmenting every day.
3. Creation of an open-end fund for reconstruction and the rehabilitation of Syria’s infrastructure and provision of all manner of technical support for the reconstruction.
4. Recognition of the Syrian people’s right to self-defense by all possible means
5. The freezing of the ruling clique’s funds – representing monies looted from the Syrian people -- in all countries so these can be earmarked for forthcoming reconstruction and rehabilitation.
6. Preparation of all the documentation considered necessary to refer those responsible for criminal acts in Syria to the International Criminal Court.
7. We call on all countries in the world – each within its own means -- to facilitate residency, movement and employment procedures, and extend schooling and healthcare help, for Syrians and to look after their Syrian communities. Every household in Syria has had at least one martyr, detainee or refugee. We also call on all Syrian embassies around the globe to attend to Syrians’ needs.

Others issues need to be said:

1. We hold Russia chiefly responsible in the event the regime resorts to the use of chemical weapons against our people. We ask Russia to fully lift the political cover and military support it provides to the regime…
2. We are totally against the intervention of foreign troops in our country. We urge our people to preclude any sectarian strife and uphold their unity to prevent the intervention of any foreign forces.
3. I appeal directly to our Alawite brethren, telling them frankly: The Syrian revolution reaches out to you, so reach out to it in turn and initiate a civil disobedience campaign against the criminal regime hiding behind you, because it repressed you like it repressed us.
4. We request the Iranian regime to withdraw all its experts from Syria. We also request Hezbollah to pull out any fighters it might have in Syria.
5. On a sensitive issue: Our differences with the United States on several subjects do not prevent us from seeing the positive side of its latest nod to our people, namely the U.S. recognition of the Coalition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people. I have said more than once that I noticed President Obama’s eyes swell when thanking his campaign team. This shows his love for his people and his loyalty to his staff. It also shows he appreciates peoples’ love for their respective nations and their yearning to die for their nations’ sake. That’s why I say in all transparency that the decision to consider one of the groups fighting the regime as terrorist needs to be reconsidered. We are madly enamored of our country. We can have our differences with the political and intellectual ideas and perceptions of certain sides. But we reaffirm that all the revolutionaries’ guns are aimed at bringing down the criminal regime. It is no shame to be driven by religion to want to liberate one’s homeland. But we are unequivocally against all forms of extremism condoning bloodshed and against any kind of fanaticism."

SCUDS

As the conference was winding down, a senior U.S. official said the Syrian regime recently fired Scud missiles at insurgents, but there was no indication the missiles carried chemical weapons.

U.S. military satellites picked up and confirmed the infrared signature of the four short-range Scud missiles, which were launched from the Damascus area into northern Syria, according to the official.

The missiles did not land on the Turkish side of the border but "came close," the official said.

Earlier this month, a U.S. official said Damascus was "ratcheting things up," noting that Assad forces had already fired some 20 rockets with the relatively long range of 60 miles.

NATO too issued a statement Wednesday saying the alliance had "detected the launch of a number of unguided, short-range ballistic missiles inside Syria this week," and that the "trajectory and distance traveled indicate they were Scud-type missiles."

"As the regime becomes more and more desperate, we see it resorting to increased lethality and more vicious weapons moving forward," said U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland. "And we have in recent days seen missiles deployed."

Incendiary bombs

In turn, Human Rights Watch said Wednesday Assad’s army has used air-delivered incendiary bombs in at least four locations across Syria since mid-November.

“We’re disturbed that Syria has apparently begun using incendiary munitions, as these weapons cause especially cruel civilian suffering and extensive property destruction when used in populated areas,” said Steve Goose, Arms division director at Human Rights Watch.

“Syria should stop using incendiary weapons in acknowledgment of the devastating harm this weapon causes.”



Incendiary weapons can contain any number of flammable substances, including napalm, thermite, or white phosphorus and are designed to set fire to objects or to cause burn injuries. They are not chemical weapons, which kill and incapacitate by the toxic properties of the chemicals released.



Incendiary weapons produce extremely painful burns, often down to the bone, and can also cause respiratory damage. The burns are difficult to treat, especially in conflict areas lacking adequate medical facilities, and the treatment itself can be excruciating. Permanent scarring and disfigurement can lead to social ostracism.

Incendiary weapons also cause fires to infrastructure due to their broad area effect, which means they cannot be used in a way that discriminates between soldiers and civilians in populated areas.



Since mid-November, the use of incendiary weapons has been reported in at least four locations: Darayya in Damascus, Maarat al-Nouman in Idlib, Babila in Damascus, and Qusayr in Homs.