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| Kerry and Lavrov, the architects of Geneva-2 |
John Kerry and the 10 other members of the “Friends of Syria” core group are
meeting in Amman today to push for a Geneva-2 conference the U.S. secretary of
state consented to with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
The Geneva framework envisages bringing together representatives of
Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian opposition to agree a joint “transitional
government with full executive powers” to end more than two years of
internecine strife.
The “Friends of Syria” sitting with Kerry at the Amman meeting are the
foreign ministers of Germany, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Saudi
Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, the UAE and Egypt.
Like most Syrians and Syria-watchers, two Arab political analysts still
have their misgivings about the proposed Geneva-2, which they sum up in a
sentence each.
- “Circumstances have changed, and so has the friendship,” Iyad Abu Shakra writes for Saudi Arabia’s leading daily Asharq Alawsat.
- “Geneva-2 places the Syrian opposition between two fires,” Ms Bahia Mardini suggests in a think piece for Elaph, the first independent online Arab newspaper.
In the view of Abu Shakra,
who specialized in Middle Eastern Studies at The University of London’s School
of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS):
Does Syria have any friends left?
The question is relevant in the countdown to the
meeting in Amman of the 11 members making up the “Friends of Syria” core group.
Above all, what are some of the “Friends of Syria”
exactly after? And can all those sitting at the Amman round-table be described
as friends?
The Syrian uprising is today looking for friends
right and left but hardly finding any who would bring to a close the Syrian
regime’s crackdown and its rush to partition Syria by blitzing Homs city and
the rural areas of Homs province.
With due respect to the true “friends” who are being
pressured by global kingmakers, a majority of partakers in Amman today will
hopefully recognize that the Syrian people deserve some measure of truthfulness
and a greater measure of courage in the face of those conspiring against them.
Honestly, is there any hope of Assad and his inner
circle stepping aside with Lavrov tailoring a Syria solution and towing Kerry
along by the hand?
Can any brainy observer imagine Tehran – which has
been investing men, money, arms and all sorts of services in Iraq, Syria and
Lebanon for three decades – simply turn its back, walk away and bury its
regional ambitions?
Frankly, no one will answer the questions
positively, save for Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, and perhaps John Kerry.
According to Ms Mardini:
The Syrian opposition is sitting hesitantly between
the two fires of a political solution.
One fire would char her if she accepted to sit with
the Assad regime after it killed at least 80,000 Syrians.
The other fire would scorch her internationally if
she refused, given that the chances of American intervention are zilch and the
Syria crisis has now gone into the international bazaar.
Background briefing
Overnight, a senior State Department official gave reporters a background
briefing on Kerry’s trip to Amman.
I have excerpted remarks the official made in the course of the curtain
raiser (that you can read in full here):
(The meeting in
Amman) is basically to review where we are on Syria,
and obviously there’s going to be a discussion both about the situation on the
ground in the country. I’m sure there will be a discussion of the refugee
situation since the Turkish and Jordanian foreign ministers will be there.
There will certainly be a discussion about Geneva, and there’ll be a discussion
about what things our countries need to be doing in the days and weeks ahead.
So it is part of an ongoing set of discussions. It is not by itself a
particularly – it’s not a place where we’re coming to make big decisions because
we’re in touch with these countries regularly anyway.
+++
With respect to Geneva and the
opposition’s attendance, I don’t think any of the different opposition elements
have yet announced definitively whether or not they will attend. And of course,
the opposition, the political opposition, is in the middle of meetings right
now in Istanbul to pick a new leadership. So we will work intensely with that
new leadership in the run-up to Geneva.
+++
Let
me say a couple of things about the fighting in Qusayr, which is up near Homs.
It’s southwest of the city of Homs. It is the most visible effort we have seen
of Hezbollah to engage directly in the fighting in Syria as a foreign force. We
understand there are also Iranians up there. That is what the Free Syrian Army
commanders are telling us. I think this is an important thing to note, the
direct implication of foreigners fighting on Syrian soil now for the regime.
+++
With respect to the Syrian regime’s
strategy leading up to Geneva, I would just say that we have long said – and
the Secretary has said – that it is important to change Bashar al-Assad’s
calculations in order to get to a political settlement and that the balance on
the ground – the military balance on the ground is a huge factor in those
calculations, and we understand that. And so one of the things we’ll be talking
about here in Amman tomorrow is what else needs to be done with respect to the
military balance on the ground.
+++
For us, the important thing is for (Assad
regime) to understand the purpose of this new meeting in Geneva is to discuss
how to implement fully – and I want to emphasize those words – how to implement
fully the Geneva communiqué, which stipulates that there will be a transition
governing body established with full executive authority, including over the
military and the security apparatus and that will be established by mutual
consent.
+++
The final invite list for the Geneva
conference is still being worked on. It’ll be an issue tomorrow, I am sure, on
the agenda of the 11 foreign ministers meeting here in Jordan. But also we have
to talk to countries that are not here. We’ll certainly have to talk to the
Russians more, and we’ll have to talk also to the United Nations because they
very well will have a big role. And so that final attendance list is still
under discussion.
+++
The Syrian opposition has been invited to
Amman, both Gen. (Salim) Idriss or a representative from him for the Supreme
Military Command as well as the political opposition. So they’ve both been
invited. I’m not sure exactly yet who is attending.
+++
Certainly there are (arms) contracts that
predate the outbreak of the Syrian revolution that the Russians are delivering
equipment under. Of course, that doesn’t mean that they couldn’t suspend
deliveries given the extraordinary circumstances in which Syria now finds
itself, but legalistically, they are correct; these are old contracts.
