Syria, Lebanon and Annan caught in vicious circle

Lebanese Army patrol in Tripoli (Naharnet photo)

At least 62 people were killed or injured in Lebanon’s “hostage city of Tripoli” on the day Kofi Annan was forewarning of the Syria crisis “regional spillover.”

The independent Beirut daily an-Nahar says, “12 people were killed in Tripoli and at least 50 injured, most of them by sniper gunfire.”

The fighting across the Syrian border in northern Lebanon’s seaport city is between pro-Assad militiamen in the predominantly Alawite stronghold of Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tebbaneh, an overwhelmingly Sunnite and anti-Assad area.

The split in Tripoli mirrors the divisions in Syria, where the Sunnite majority is leading the 15-month-old uprising, while Alawites and other minority groups are generally supporting President Bashar al-Assad

An-Nahar says Lebanese Army units and Internal Security Forces are struggling to deploy in the two areas.

It quotes unnamed sources as saying the city has become “a regional pawn.” Syria and its allies are manipulating the pawn through exploitation of a “security hotbed,” which is Jabal Mohsen, to pressure Lebanese, Arab and regional parties. Repeated talk in Jabal Mohsen about inviting the Syrian army back to Lebanon clearly identifies the regional side seeking to revive civil strife in Tripoli and destabilize the country.

A counterpunch comes from Jabal Mohsen chieftain Rifaat Eid, who tells the Beirut daily ad-Diyar there are “no Syrian refugees” in Lebanon, simply “Syrian terrorists” and that “the military arm of the Future Movement,” which opposes Assad, is now under the command of the Free Syrian Army.

Also on Saturday, Syria troubleshooter Annan warned of the growing sectarian violence in Syria, saying the conflict is already having serious consequences in the region and calling on the international community to work together to push for the implementation of his six-point peace plan.

"The specter of all-out civil war, with a worrying sectarian dimension, grows by the day," Annan told the Arab Ministerial Committee on Syria in Doha. "The crisis is having regional spillover, in the form of tensions and incidents across the border, abductions of nationals and foreigners, and refugee flows to neighboring states."

Annan in Doha (Photo from dailylife.com)

Annan stressed that during his meeting with Assad in Damascus earlier this week, he urged him to act immediately to implement the six-point plan, and to honor his commitment to withdraw heavy weapons from populated areas and cease all violence.

"The situation is complex, and it takes everyone involved in the crisis to act responsibly if the violence is to stop. But the first responsibility lies with the Syrian Government, and with President Assad," Annan said.  "He must release detainees, fully open up to international humanitarian assistance, and allow people to express their views freely in peaceful protest. This is essential to demonstrate his seriousness to the Syrian people and the international community."

Annan emphasized the importance of the international community acting in unity to be able to put pressure on Damascus and all other parties to the conflict to stop the violence, and prevent it from spreading further.

"Let me appeal to all of you to engage earnestly and seriously with all other stakeholders, mindful that if regional and international divisions play out in Syria, the Syrian people and the region – your region – will pay the price," Annan said.

"The time is coming, if it is not already here, for a serious review. The international community must decide what it does next.

“From my consultations with many actors, I sense a clear recognition that things cannot continue as they are. I agree. The international community must work together more effectively to push for implementation of the six-point plan in full. We must think this through and we must get it right," he added.

Annan travels to New York to brief the General Assembly and the Security Council next Thursday.

Shortly after Annan addressed the Arab Ministerial Committee on Syria in Doha, the Arab League Council of Ministers issued a statement demanding stronger UN measures against the Syrian regime to secure its full implementation of Annan’s plan within a “set timeframe,” including non-military action provided for by Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

The statement was referring to Chapter VII Article 41 of the Charter that allows the Security Council to impose sanctions to enforce compliance with its decision.

Article 41 states, “The Security Council may decide what measures not involving the use of armed force are to be employed to give effect to its decisions, and it may call upon the Members of the United Nations to apply such measures. These may include complete or partial interruption of economic relations and of rail, sea, air, postal, telegraphic, radio, and other means of communication, and the severance of diplomatic relations.”

The Arab League foreign ministers also called on network providers ArabSat and NileSat to cut out state-run and private Syrian channels.

Algeria, Iraq and Lebanon voiced reservations about the statement in full or in part.

One political analyst who is annoyed by Annan’s downbeat report to the Arab Ministerial Committee on Syria in Doha is Tariq Alhomayed, who is editor-in-chief of the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat.

After his last meeting with Assad, Annan told reporters in Beirut it was the role of the Security Council to consider other ways forward in Syria.

“I know we are all impatient; we are all frustrated by the violence, by the killings. So am I. I think I am probably more frustrated than any of you because I am in the thick of things and would really want to see things move much faster than it has done,” he declared.

“If it is not this proposal on the table, there could be something else. I am not one of those that believe there is only one way; there could be other ways. And if other proposals are on the table, I am sure the Security Council will look at them and I will be the first to say, 'Bravo, let's move with it.’”

Annan, in other words, does not want to personally avow the failure of his mission. He is trying to toss the hot potato into the lap of the Security Council, which is already shackled to the wall by Russia and China.

Alhomayed says, “The frustration is that many people don’t want to face the truth, and Mr. Annan is one of them.”

Meantime, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton yesterday called her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov to discuss the situation in Syria.  A State Department official said Clinton's message to Lavrov was: "We’ve got to start working together to help the Syrians with Syria's political transition strategy.  U.S. and Russian officials should engage diplomatically to come up with ideas in Moscow, Washington, New York and wherever we need to."

“Difficult days ahead for Lebanon”

(Photo from al-Joumhouria)

By George Solage*

The situation in Lebanon becomes all the more dangerous as the Lebanese sides increase their meddling in the Syrian crisis.

Successive security incidents also show the struggle in and over Syria has started creeping into the brittle Lebanese interior, which is prone to blow up instantly at any time.

The controls have all but evaporated as sectarian compulsions get the better of national logic and external agendas take precedence over internal priorities.

The release of Shadi Mawlawi won’t pacify the Tripoli streets. Nor will holding to account the killers of sheikhs Ahmed Abdul-Wahed and Mohammed Hussein Merheb calm the volcanic anger of the people of Akkar, whose social and economic development rights have long been overlooked.

The people of the North feel targeted and hunted. They feel their youths are trailed. They feel accused of being Takfeeris. Weapons are seized from their hands but permitted in the hands of others. They are dubbed terrorist suspects liable to be penalized. They are banned from sympathizing with their Sunnite brethren in Syria. They are threatened with a return of the Syrian army to their region to supposedly prevent Akkar from becoming a sanctuary for the Syrian regime’s opponents and a buffer zone and launching pad for military operations inside Syria.

In light of this perception, which raised tension to unforeseen levels, chances of a political solution sponsored by Lebanese officialdom receded. Some branches of government floated the idea of a security solution on the ground, which effectively translates into pitting the Lebanese army against its own people in Tripoli and Akkar.

The security situation did not work in Syria and can’t succeed in Lebanon because the problem is not a question of security, but of politics. The problem needs to be addressed politically.

Even though some people point the finger at the army, the issue is not between the army and the political forces or the denizens of the region.

Talk about a likely return of the Syrian army to Lebanon is pure scaremongering. The Syrian army now is in no position to undertake such an adventure. Also, there’s no international decision to that effect. On the contrary, such a move would trigger an international outcry of which Syria is aware and can ill afford.

A high-ranking security source confirms this and does not anticipate security turmoil in Beirut at this stage, despite the incidents of the past couple of days. He is surprised by the amplification of reports about al-Qaeda cadres being in Beirut and heading to Syria. He is also confident the Lebanese army and the internal security forces are in control.

But good intentions alone are not enough and warnings are futile so long as “self-distancing” (from Syria) remains a (government) policy slogan, which the political authorities either don’t wish to uphold or don’t dare to respect.

Proof is that the “virtual (parliamentary) majority” still does not see the need to replace the present government with a salvation government in order to safeguard Lebanon from the high-risk challenges threatening its security, unity, sovereignty and future.

What lies in store (for Lebanon) is onerous and extremely intricate.

It will become more menacing if the past fortnight’s realities on the ground – the realities of coupling Lebanon’s north and the Syrian interior – take hold.

The directives by Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain to their citizens to avoid travel to Lebanon is one of many prices the Lebanese would have to pay should they choose to poke their nose further into the Syrian crisis and ignore the pressing need for a salvation government in anticipation of arms proliferating and the situation flaring up on a wider scale.

*This think piece by George Solage appears in Arabic today in the independent Beirut daily al-Joumhouria. Solage is a longtime media aide to Lebanon’s former defense minister Elias el-Murr. 

Syria seen lighting the Lebanon fuse

World Atlas map of the Syria-Lebanon borders

Syria is now depicting Lebanon as a Taliban-infested Afghanistan, its eastern and northern regions as the hills and caves of Tora Bora and its seaport city of Tripoli as Kandahar.

The innuendos, Lebanese political analyst Rosanna Boumounsef writes in her daily column for Beirut’s an-Nahar, portend three menaces:

1.     Cross-border Syrian Army raids on Lebanese regions abutting Syria

2.     Pressure on Beirut to emulate Damascus in pouncing on its own people

3.     Dragging vast swaths of eastern and northern Lebanon into the Syria cauldron.

Boumounsef, among several other analysts, was commenting on Syria’s letter to the United Nations accusing some Lebanese areas of helping al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood terrorists set up home along the Syrian border.

"Some Lebanese areas next to the Syrian border are harboring terrorist elements from al Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood, who are jeopardizing the security of Syria and its citizens and striving to undermine the UN Special Envoy's six-point plan," Syria’s UN Ambassador Bashar Ja'afari wrote in a letter marked “Urgent” and dated May 17.

The seven-page letter (six of them in Arabic) was addressed to UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and copied to the current UN Security Council president, Agshin Mehdiyev of Azerbaijan.

"In some Lebanese areas bordering Syria, several warehouses have been set up to stockpile weapons and ammunition that are reaching Lebanon illegally, either by sea, or at times via the airplanes of specific countries that are used to transport weapons to Lebanon before smuggling them to Syria, under the pretext they (the aircraft) are carrying humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees in Lebanon," Ja'afari said in the letter.

He said, “On March 13, an unidentified warship anchored off (the Lebanese coastal city) Jounieh as small boats went about moving its arms cargo to shore so it could then be moved to Syria. Weapons-laden vessels also docked at the Aquamarina near Jounieh. Their weapons shiploads were moved first to Akkar, then to Wadi Khaled, ahead of their smuggling into Syria.”

Ja’afari said, “Premises of charities run by Salafists and the Future Movement in Lebanese areas bordering Syria are being used to provide safe havens to al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood terrorists to launch hit-and-run criminal operations inside Syria. The injured among them are treated under fake names in hospitals and clinics affiliated to those (Salafist and Future Movement) groups and funded by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.”

In the Tripoli governorate town of Kalamoun, he said, “there are about 50 terrorists led by Khaled el-Tanak, Khaled Hamza and Zakaria Ghaleb el-Kholi” who carry IDs rubberstamped by the UN allowing them to travel unhindered first to Danniyeh, on to Akkar and then to Wadi Khaled, where they would infiltrate into Syrian territory to mount terrorist operations.

Ja’afari added in his letter that Colonel Riad al-Asaad, head of the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA), “recently arrived in Lebanon to prepare for creating a Syrian buffer zone commencing in Lebanese territory.”

Lebanese Premier Najib Miqati Friday picked holes in the Ja’afari letter and said his government “is fully performing its duty in combating all terror operations, in monitoring the Lebanese borders, in controlling the security situation and in addressing any security gaps.”

Miqati said, “Violations are also occurring from the Syrian side of the border, as everyone knows the crisscrossing nature of the frontier between the two countries and how difficult it is to control the extensive border area between them.

“Therefore, we consider the remarks voiced by the Syrian envoy as exacerbating the disputes, at a time when we are seeking, through the relevant diplomatic and security channels, to bridge differences and tackle problems calmly, carefully and in such a way as to safeguard the good relations between the two countries and peoples.”

Rosanna Boumounsef

Rosanna Boumounsef, in her news analysis for an-Nahar, says Lebanon is “immensely and deeply troubled” by the Syrian charges. The account by Ja’afari is “extremely dangerous” as it engrosses Lebanon “forcibly and publicly” in the Syrian quagmire.

The likely fallouts, she says, are at least three:

1.   There is the prospect of more frequent thrusts by the Syrian army into Lebanese border area under the pretext of the “hot pursuit” of so-called terrorists. The Ja’afari letter effectively delineates all the targeted Lebanese Christian and Sunnite area, including Jounieh, Danniyeh and Akkar. The letter also came hot on the heels of Lebanese Alawite warlord Rifaat Eid’s remark welcoming the Syrian army’s return to Tripoli to restore law and order in the troubled city. (See my earlier post, “How Syria fire is creeping up on Lebanon”).

2.    The second possibility is to pressure Lebanon’s political and security authorities to emulate the Syrian regime’s crackdown on what its dubs Muslim Brotherhood terrorists.

3.    A third likelihood is to stir up internecine strife in Lebanon. Syria’s Lebanese allies have long been describing Tripoli as an “outlaw city.”

Boumounsef notes the Syrian regime’s modus operandi is to try and take advantage of the situation in Lebanon to pressure its Arab and foreign detractors by threatening to sow chaos in neighboring countries. Only this week, she says, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad told a Russian broadcaster, “If you sow chaos in Syria you may be infected by it yourself, and (Syria’s detractors) know this very well.”

How Syria fire is creeping up on Lebanon

Rifaat Eid

Lebanon is being dragged gradually but surely into the Syria cauldron.

After this week’s round of fighting between Alawite and Sunnite militias in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city bordering Syria, three statements made overnight are symptomatic:

One, the overlord of Lebanon’s Alawites says he has no qualms about inviting the Syrian Army to restore order in Tripoli.

Two, the “March 14” coalition, which is the Syrian regime’s nemesis in Lebanon, says it wants Arab countries and the international community to help protect Lebanon’s northern and eastern borders with Syria.

Three, President Bashar al-Assad tells a Russian broadcaster Lebanon and Jordan have been helping to thwart the infiltration of terrorists and the smuggling of arms because they were aware “chaos” in Syria could spread to them.

Eid

After the Lebanese Army curbed the May 12-14 clashes between Tripoli's two adjacent districts -- the predominantly Sunnite “Bab al-Tebbaneh” and the overwhelmingly Alawite “Jabal Mohsen” – Alawite chieftain Rifaat Eid talked tough at his Bab al-Tebbaneh stronghold.

He told a Wednesday press conference the latest clashes were instigated by the “March 14” coalition and “gifted” to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman and U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman, who visited Lebanon in early May.

He described the cessation of violence in Tripoli as the “fighter’s rest,” adding: “Jabal Mohsen is paying the price of its political affinities with the resistance of (Hezbollah leader) Hassan Nasrallah, with the steadfastness of President Bashar al-Assad, with the missiles of Iran, with the Russian bear and with China.”

Eid said if the situation deteriorated further “there would be no solution left. Everyone should be aware that sliding further into the unknown would mean no one could pacify Lebanon except through the intervention of an Arab army. And no one would be able to do so except Syria. If you asked me my opinion, I have no problem with (the Syrian army coming in). Better this happened today than tomorrow…”

March 14

Parallel to Eid’s press conference, a statement by the “March 14” general secretariat was reiterating the coalition’s “political support for the Syrian revolution and its humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees.”

The statement blamed the violence in Tripoli on “the Syrian regime’s attempts to export its internal crisis” to neighboring Lebanon, adding: “In view of repeated violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty by the Syrian regime’s army, such as the detonation of the situation in Tripoli and the attacks on the areas of Arida, Wadi Khaled, Ersal, el-Qaa and Jabal el-Sheikh, and in view of the (Lebanese) political authorities and security forces’ ineptitude to protect the northern and eastern borders with Syria, ‘March 14’ requests that Arab countries and the international community be solicited to do so in keeping with UN resolutions 1559, 1680 and 1701.”

Assad

Speaking in an interview broadcast Wednesday on Russian state news channel Rossiya-24, Assad said Russia and China, who repeatedly expressed their support for Syria and backed the country in the UN Security Council, are not supporting him as head of state or his regime, but international stability.

“They [Russia and China] do not support me as president,” he said. “They promote stability in the region and have a very good understanding of Syria’s role and importance [in the Middle East].”

Without them Syria, as well as the region as a whole, “would be swept by chaos,” he said.

Assad said neighboring states like Lebanon and Jordan had been helping to thwart the shipment of weapons and the infiltration of fighters because they were aware the “chaos” could spread to them, and he said Europe and the West should be aware of the same danger in supporting the opposition.

Assad denounced the armed opposition as a gang of “criminals” who he said included religious extremists and members of al-Qaeda.

“It is not an army and it is not free,” he said, referring to the opposition’s Free Syrian Army.

“They get money and weapons from abroad from various countries. It is a group of criminals who have for years broken the law and received convictions. There are also religious extremists there like from al-Qaeda.”

Assad said, “Through the interrogation of terrorists, it became irrefutably clear weapons are being smuggled across the Syrian borders from neighboring countries and funds are being sent from people abroad… We have information about people leading these operations outside Syria and in several countries.

"There are bombs and mines placed in areas with civilians and may target civilians sometimes and they may target security forces or the police or the army… There are also-anti-tank weapons, which is new and serious… So all things point to the fact that there are countries responsible for armament and not individuals who may actually be fronts for these countries.

"Where do the weapons come from? From neighboring countries… (But) we cannot accuse them of being involved in the smuggling as it's difficult to control borders with surrounding countries..."