I am personally
of the opinion he will keep huffing and puffing well into 2014 without getting
up the steep Geneva-2 hill.
According to the
Geneva
Communiqué of June 2012, the principal objective of the proposed peace
conference is to set up by mutual consent a transitional governing body with
“full executive powers.”
I will come back
to the prospects of Geneva-2 in a subsequent blog.
But here are
highlights of what Brahimi told the Paris-based weekly newsmagazine Jeune
Afrique in a 3,000-word
interview published on the day of his arrival in Damascus yesterday.
The interview is
fittingly titled “Mission Impossible”:
Jeune Afrique: Didn’t the
agreement between the Russians and Americans [to remove Syria’s chemical
weapons] put Bashar al-Assad back on the saddle?
Lakhdar Brahimi: He was an
outcast; he became a partner… Bashar was never put off his stride -- so there
is no reason to think that.
JA: Do you think
he seriously considers running for re-election in mid-2014?
LB: Many of those
around him take his running for another term as an accomplished fact.
He deems it as his absolute right, but that he would come to a decision in due time. He is
adamant about completing his current term.
What I proclaim aloud
and to all Syrians is this: History teaches us that after a crisis like this,
there is no turning back.
President Assad
could therefore significantly contribute to the transition from the previous Syria
-- which is that of his father and his own -- to what I call the New Syrian
Republic.
JA: What about the
Syrian opposition?
LB: They are to consider
who could represent them [at the peace table]. This is one reason why it takes
time. Some of them even feel they should stay away from Geneva.
It's very
complicated!
In this type of
situation, there are many camps. Armed and unarmed opposition, opposition based
outside and inside [Syria], Islamists, seculars, etc... We must realize
Geneva-2, unlike the conference held in 2012, is not an end in itself but the
beginning.
We hope the
opposition will manage to agree on a credible and representative delegation. We
must not delude ourselves: the whole world won’t be represented. However, the carry-over
of this process will include as many people as possible.
JA: If the
powerful Islamist rebels choose to boycott Geneva, it will be a real problem...
LB: Probably, but
mind you there are two sorts of Islamists: those interested in the quest for
peace, and those in the orbit al-Qaeda – such as Jabhat al-Nusra, for example.
The latter wish to bring down the regime; they are not fighting to build a New
Syrian Republic, but to set up an Islamic state. So they don’t give a hoot
about Geneva.
JA: Is Russian
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov a reliable partner?
LB: Absolutely – we know
each other well.
He was
ambassador to the UN and is an outstanding professional. He is also extremely
knowledgeable about the Middle East.
Where Syria is
concerned, there is much talk about Moscow's influence and the Russians’ political
relations with the regime.
The Russians
have had a significant, longstanding and uninterrupted presence in Syria.
Everyone bears
in mind the Russian officers who are out there, but there are chiefly a lot of
engineers. Remember, there are nearly 20,000 Russian women in Syria married to
Syrians.
The Russians
know Syria very well. When [Tunisia’s Zine al-Abidine] Ben Ali, [Egypt’s Hosni] Mubarak and [Libya’s Muammar] Gaddafi fell, few thought Bashar would survive more than three months.
Only the
Russians kept saying: "Careful -- this is not the case, we are familiar
with the country, and we know how it works. Syria is more complicated. "
Some thought this
was pretentious, that it was an unconditional expression of support for Bashar.
JA: Do you think
Syria’s national fabric can still be patched up?
LB: Yes, I think
so. What threatens Syria is not the country’s partition. I would be surprised
if the Alawites really want to create some sort of a bunker in their small
mountains. They know very well it won’t be viable.
The real danger threatening
Syria is a kind of "Somalization," one which will be more sustainable
and profound than what we’ve seen in Somalia so far.
JA: Does the idea
of a Shiite crescent fighting Sunnis across the Arab and Islamic worlds seem
pertinent?
LB: Effectively,
we do have a problem, which is far from being new. I remember discussing it with
[the highest ranking Shiite religious leader in Iraq] Grand Ayatollah [Ali]
Sistani, when I was in Baghdad in 2004. I explained to him we might have on
our hands a Shiite-Sunni problem stretching from Indonesia all the way to
Morocco.
He answered me
saying Iraq was not Pakistan, where internecine strife was rife. He was
wrong... We're not yet at the stage of a general confrontation, although [Shiite-Sunni]
tensions are numerous in Lebanon, Iraq, Pakistan or Bahrain. But we must be vigilant
because we’re not too far off.
JA: What role is
Iran playing in the Syrian conflict today -- that of a facilitator or an
obstacle?
LB: You know, from
my point of view, everyone represents an obstacle... Seriously, I met the new
president, Hassan Rouhani, and his minister of foreign affairs in New York.
Iran's position
is clear: there is no military solution to this conflict; an entente must be
reached between the government -- towards which the Iranians are very close --
and the opposition that will result in free elections supervised by the United
Nations.
I’m under the
impression they [Iranians] think Bashar would win the ballot hands down.
JA: From [Mahmoud]
Ahmadinejad to Rouhani, have you noticed a change in Tehran’s discourse and
positions?
LB: On other
issues, such as relations with the United States, certainly. But on the Syria
crisis, no, absolutely not.
JA: What about
Israel in all this?
LB: I feel that
whatever the case, Israel is in a win-win situation. If Bashar goes, Syria will
take a long time to stabilize. If Bashar stays, he will be broken-down. And if
the internecine strife continues, it will be good for Israel... Moreover,
chemical weapons were the only strategic weapons the Israelis feared. In short,
Israel is in a win-win situation and I'm not sure the Arabs are aware of this...
