Al-Qaeda offshoots are set to declare an Islamist
state in Syria’s north on Eid
al-Fitr (August 8), according to Saudi Arabia’s leading daily Asharq Alawsat quoting a Free Syrian
Army (FSA) top dog.
The
paper quotes him saying the al-Qaeda-linked groups hope by then to have
wrested control from the FSA of the two border crossings into Turkey: Bab
al-Hawa and Harem.
Bab al-Hawa links Turkish and Syrian highways between
the cities of Iskenderun and Aleppo. The closest town to Bab al-Hawa on the
Turkish side of the border is Reyhanli in Hatay
province, and the nearest town on the Syrian side is al-Dana.
Harem is right by the Turkish frontier in Syria’s
northern Idlib Province.
The FSA official speaking to Asharq Alawsat linked plans to declare an Islamic state in Syria’s
north to recent killings by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant of two
senior FSA officers – namely, Fadi al-Qish, a local FSA commander in the
village of al-Dana and Kamal
Hamami (aka Abu Baseer al-Ladkani), member of the FSA Supreme Military
Council.
Asharq
Alawsat’s FSA source said the FSA
was deploying units and checkpoints in areas targeted by the Islamic State of
Iraq and the Levant to prevent them falling into its fighters’ hands.
Tariq Alhomayed, Asharq
Alawsat’s former editor-in-chief, writes in his daily column for the
newspaper:
Irrespective of the accuracy of reports about armed
clashes between al-Qaeda and the FSA, and the attempt to assassinate the
latter’s overall commander Gen. Salim Idriss, this is what is in the cards,
whether now or later on.
The confrontation between al-Qaeda and the Syrians is
inevitable because al-Qaeda is the fleeting anomaly while Syrian moderation is
the established rule.
The danger in the Syrian scene today is that the FSA
is now facing Bashar al-Assad’s regime, fighters from Iran, (Lebanese)
Hezbollah and Iraqi Shiite militias, and al-Qaeda...
The irony is that the FSA is still being deprived of qualitative
arms and left to face this array of forces singlehanded.
Gen. Idriss has accused David
Cameron of betrayal after the British Prime Minister abandoned plans to arm the
Syrian opposition.
He said the decision would
"leave us alone to be killed" by Assad, and pave the way for al-Qaeda
to dominate rebel ranks.
Gen. Idriss hit out in an interview
with The Daily Telegraph after Downing Street confirmed Cameron
had ruled out arming the opposition on advise from the British military. The
government had previously hinted that it was strongly considering it,
successfully lobbying two months ago for an end to the European Union arms
embargo.
But military chiefs at
Britain's National Security Council are understood to have warned Downing
Street the conflict was now too advanced for basic weapons supplies to make
much difference.
They said that could only
be achieved by a much-larger scale intervention, involving jet strikes on
regime air defenses and bases, which Britain has already ruled out.
Instead, Britain will draw
up plans to train moderate rebel units and continue supplying
"non-lethal" items like body armor and communications equipment.
Idriss greeted the British
change of heart with fury. The FSA has spent much of the last two years trying
to persuade the West to give it military backing.
"The West promises
and promises. This is a joke now," Idriss said, the anger clear in his
voice. "I have not had the opportunity to ask David Cameron personally if
he will leave us alone to be killed. On behalf of all the Syrians, thank you very
much."
"What are our friends
in the West waiting for?" asked Idriss. "For Iran and Hezbollah to
kill all the Syrian people?"
He also warned the West’s refusal
to arm the more moderate elements of the insurgency would hand Syria's
revolution to extremist groups, who already have better access to weapons.
"Soon there will be
no FSA to arm," he said. "The Islamic groups will take control of
everything, and this is not in the interests of Britain."
The British refusal will
be seen as a particular blow to rebel morale given that recent signals
suggested the government was planning the very opposite tack.
Only last month, William
Hague, the Foreign Secretary, insisted Britain "shouldn't rule any option
out," claiming that concerns about arms earmarked for secular rebel groups
falling into jihadist hands were exaggerated.
“Greater
Syria: From Dagestan to Xinjiang” is the title of a related and
enlightening think piece by veteran Lebanese political analyst Jihad el-Zein
for today’s edition of the Beirut daily an-Nahar.
The gist of
Zein’s opinion:
The Syria crisis is into a third “jihadist” phase, having already
gone through “civil” then “militarized” chapters.
The “jihadist” phase currently underway elicits greater commitment
by Russia and China because it touches on their home front concerns.
Earlier
this month, for instance, Chinese state media blamed Syrians for unrest in Xinjiang, which is home to the minority
Muslim Uighur population.
China
has traditionally blamed violence in Xinjiang on Islamic separatists who want
to establish an independent state of “East Turkestan.”
This
time Beijing laid the blame squarely on terrorists in Syria, of which the
al-Qaeda-affiliated al-Nusra Front is the most notorious, but the charge of a
Syria connection still comports with a common government narrative of
portraying Xinjiang’s violence as coming from other countries, such as Pakistan
and Afghanistan, rather than homegrown agitation.
While
about 90 per cent of China is ethnic Han, more than 40 per cent of Xinjiang’s
22 million people are Uighurs.
The
Global Times, a tabloid owned by the Communist Party mouthpiece, the People's
Daily, said some members of the East Turkestan faction had moved from Turkey
into Syria.
The
rise of Salafist militancy in Syrian rebel groups is a tremendous concern for
Russia too.
Moscow
fears the numbers and efficacy of forces such as al-Nusra Front will one day
turn their attention to oppressed Muslim regions in Russia such as Dagestan and
Chechnya.
Dagestan, the region where the brothers who bombed this year's Boston Marathon
once lived, borders on the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan,
Chechnya and Georgia.
President Vladimir Putin has dismissed the leader of
Dagestan, where an Islamist insurgency is raging. The region has taken over from
neighboring Chechnya as Russia's most volatile province.
Salafist
fighters, including some from al-Qaeda, fought in Chechnya in the 1990s; they
may do so again. Syria and Chechnya are only five hundred miles apart.
If
you looked at a map of Russia, you would see Dagestan’s seaports on the Caspian
Sea can easily ferry arms and everything else to neighboring Iran and from
there across the “Shiite Crescent” to Syria via Iraq.
The
struggle for Syria is thus strategic, not tactical, for Russia and less so
China. Both have a bigger stake now in the “jihadist” chapter of the Syria
crisis as it impacts their respective home fronts.
That’s
why the “Greater Syria” – i.e. an international and regional struggle with the
following coordinates:
--
Longitude from Dagestan to Xinjiang via Peshawar, covering the Jihadist stretch
--
Latitude from South Lebanon’s Naqoura
to Tehran, taking in the Shiite spread.
