Talks aimed at trying to
end the civil war in Syria will today see international powers meet with the
opposition to discuss a political transition.
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| Special Envoy Lakhdar Brahimi |
Ahead of the meetings,
peace envoy Lakhdar Brahimi suggested in his leaked January 29 briefing to the
UN Security Council that President Bashar al-Assad must step down as part of
the transition.
The briefing featured a
six-point plan laid out by the envoy as he prepares to join U.S. Vice-President
Joe Biden in Munich for the meetings today with Ahmed Moaz al-Khatib, head of
the Syrian National Coalition.
UN Report
posted this full text of Brahimi’s briefing to the Security Council, which suggests that Assad should go:
BRIEFING TO THE SECURITY COUNCIL
Joint
Special Representative for Syria
, Mr. Lakhdar
Brahimi
New York, 29 January
2013
Thank you very much indeed,
Mr. President,
Mr. President,
Distinguished Members of the Council,
1. It is an honor to
come to this Informal Consultations of the Council to discuss the Syrian
situation, and it gives me particular pleasure to do so under your Chair, Mr.
President. I believe it is not too late to express to you and to your
Colleagues and Staff a happy 2013. I guess that the best wish one could express
to the Security Council as a whole is that you have no work at all. Indeed no
work at all for you would be what the people of the world would appreciate
most.
2. In my opening
remarks, I’ll address the disastrous consequences of the crisis on the people
of Syria. I will speak after that about the political and military situation
and how in my view, the conflict needs to be addressed. I hope to show that
intervention of the Council is now necessary. Without your action, Mr.
President, Syria runs the risk of sliding fast into Somalization.
3. Things in Syria are
not any better today than they were when I last briefed the Council, on 29
November 2012: as we, and most observers keep repeating, things continue to get
worse by the day. You were briefed ten days ago by High Commissioner for Human
Rights Navi Pillay and by the Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos. Since
then more Syrians have lost their lives, more Syrians have lost their limbs;
and more Syrians have lost hope.
4. I thought that the
sickening attack at the University of Aleppo earlier this month was the most
revolting illustration of the immense suffering this conflict is inflicting on
the people of Syria: the mass murder of nearly one hundred students and
displaced persons living on the Campus, and the wounding of scores of others
had no military value. It was killing for the purpose of terrorizing and
inflicting harm on the civilian population and little else.
5. But then came those
unbearable images brought back by Lyse Doucet of the BBC from the rural
settlement of Haswaeyeh near the city of Homs; there, we saw that it was still
possible to reach even worse levels of horror. In this rural, and until then
rather peaceful part of Syria, God knows how many peaceful, helpless civilian
men, women and children were literally slaughtered and burned by cruel, evil
men.
6. But the tragedy
simply does not have an end. Just before coming down, we read of yet another
horror, in a suburb of Aleppo this time; sixty-five bodies discovered with
their hands tied and shot in the head.
7. Or look also at the
nearly 30 bakeries targeted in the course of 2012, often when long queues of
people were waiting to buy a loaf of bread. After each of these and similar
crimes, both sides were quick to claim innocence and accuse the other party of
the crime. Due to a track record and, at times, circumstantial evidence, strong
suspicion if not actual evidence often points the finger at Government Forces
or their shadowy militia, the Shabiha as the perpetrator. It is however an
established fact, that armed opposition groups have also been known to commit
equally outrageous crimes against civilians.
8. These amount surely
to crimes of war and crimes against humanity and it may be useful to initiate
specific inquiries into crimes such as those committed earlier this month in Aleppo
University, the village of Haswaeyeh or the Bakery attacks. It is of course
difficult to undertake such tasks from a distance but I feel certain that, in
many instances, it will be possible to establish responsibility. And that is
worth doing; as it would be a useful complement to the serious work being done
by the International Commission of Inquiry led by Professor Paulo Sergio
Pinheiro.
9. Valerie Amos told
you, Mr. Chairman, everything there is to say about the dire humanitarian
situation. To further underline the magnitude of the problem, please listen to
the following sentence I have taken one out of the large number of reports and
articles we all see every day. I quote: “The U.N. refugee agency in Jordan
says there has been a spike in the number of Syrians fleeing the civil war at
home and crossing into Jordan. UNHCR's representative Andrew Harper says about
3,000 Syrians have entered Jordan every night for the past five days. Harper
said Tuesday that the spike is due to intensified shelling, fighting and the
"desperate situation" in Syria's southern villages. He says Jordan's
Zaatari refugee camp is filling up quickly and UNHCR is running out of money to
expand and set up other camps.”
10. Another
illustration of the magnitude of the tragedy: talking to a visiting UN
delegation a few days ago, a senior official of the Syrian Government said that
the city of Daraya in the suburbs of Damascus has seen its population dwindle
to seventy thousand – 70,000 – from an original total of more than 300,000; which
means that more than two thirds – 2/3 – of the inhabitants of that city have
left it.
11. Let us, for a
minute or two play a game of guess work: should the military situation around
Damascus take a turn for the worst, we will of course see a massive exodus of
civilians fleeing the capital. Let us suppose that, not two thirds like Daraya,
but one third only of them leave. You would then be speaking of more than one
and a half million people getting out of Damascus. Let us further suppose that
one third of the people on the move find refuge somewhere else inside Syria.
12. Where would the
remaining one million people go? Obviously to the nearest borders, that is the
Lebanese and Jordanian borders.
13. This is of course a
worst-case scenario; but it would be totally wrong to assume that this is far
fetched or only a very remote possibility. Someone who knows Syria much better
than me speaks of another scenario far more gloomy and frightening: he sees
Damascus being the theater of a long and bloody confrontation where the
beautiful Old City will be completely destroyed.
14. But let us stay
with our own scenario: I am sure you’ll agree with me that Lebanon would
collapse under the weight of 500,000 additional people forcing their way into
its territory and that Jordan will be equally critically destabilized by the
flow of half a million new arrivals from Syria.
15. Do we need to add
to this description the familiar figures of 60,000 people at the very least of
those killed and probably five times maybe more that number of the wounded
during this conflict. And the refugees already abroad 700,000 of them,
predicted to go up to one million in a few months time. And the internally
displaced: more than two million. And those who need help inside the country: four,
perhaps already close to five million.
16. Let us also
remember the detainees: I saw a nominal list of nearly 30,000. Their real
number is certainly very, very much higher; some speak of 60,000 others of
100,000. It has been established, as you all know, that torture is routinely
practiced in official and non-official detention centers. And there are also
countless people who have disappeared and are said to have been detained or
killed by the many security organizations of the State and the much feared, shadowy
Shabiha.
17. And do I need to
mention again the physical destruction of the country, those parts of some
cities that look like Berlin in 1945? The priceless cultural heritage of Syria
being destroyed or plundered? The bandits and traffickers doing what they do
best? The hospitals and other health facilities destroyed completely, or closed,
or used by security agents to arrest people suspected of being part of the
opposition? Electricity being cut off for long hours every day? In some place
lately there is no electricity at all. Shortages in almost everything? The
galloping unemployment and punishingly high prices that continue to increase
almost by the day: two very quick examples of how difficult life is for Syrians
today: to get some gas it is necessary to queue with you car for up to 24 hours
in front of a petrol station. And the price of a cooking gas canister has gone
up – listen to this - from 350 to 5,000 liras.
18. Syrians themselves
are helping one another to the best of their ability. For example, the small
town of Salmya is home to 100,000 to 120,000 mainly Ismailis. They have
received and are supporting 100,000 IDPs, with little help from outside. Some
Kurdish villages have seen their population shoot up from 10,000 to 60,000
people.
19. Syria’s neighbors
deserve everyone’s admiration and profound gratitude for their inspiring sense
of international responsibility, their fraternal solidarity with their neighbors
and their amazingly generous hospitality extended to those hundreds of
thousands of refugees.
20. All UN Agencies are
mobilized, as you know. Together with others, the ICRC chief among them, they
are doing their best to come to the rescue of all these people, be they inside
or outside Syria, in Government or opposition controlled territory. Theirs is
not an easy task. They do not always succeed in reaching those who need them
the most; and their work is not without risk for national and international
staff alike. But it is indispensable to do this work and it is being done as
well as conditions permit.
21. In addition to the
physical difficulties faced on the ground, humanitarian aid is crippled by the
lack of funding, so much so that food rations are now being curtailed. In
addition to what Valerie Amos told you on the subject, let me quote from what
the Secretary General said a few days ago in Davos. I quote: “The
humanitarian community needs $1.5 billion for the next six months -- the
largest-ever short-term appeal. However, our appeals to date have been woefully
under-funded. That is why I am convening a pledging conference in Kuwait on
January 30th.
For many years, Syrians have shown great generosity and
solidarity in hosting refugees from Palestine, Iraq and Somalia. The
international community should come to Syria’s aid in its own time of need.”
Mr. President,
22. Of course
humanitarian action is indispensable and urgent. It will address the needs
created in and around Syria by the terrible crisis, which has been affecting
the country and its people as well as their neighbors for close to two years
now.
23. But humanitarian
aid does not address the core of the problem; it addresses only the
consequences. To go to the roots of the problem, a lasting solution has to be
found for the crisis.
24. Two months ago,
when I briefed the Council, many believed that the Syrian regime was crumbling
and President Assad about to fall or flee the country in a matter of weeks
perhaps even days. Today, the mood has shifted; President Assad is said to be
doing well and his regime still strong. He will be there for the foreseeable
future if not forever, we are told. To drive the point home some journalists in
Damascus and Beirut write very optimistically articles about the progress being
made every day. One went as far as to say total victory, for the regime of
course, is not more than a few weeks away!
25. We were not convinced
by the analysis, which prevailed two months ago, anymore than we are convinced
by what is being said today. The truth is that the regime has been seriously
shaken and it has not regained its balance. It was under stronger pressure two
months ago than it is today, but Kissinger’s formula is as valid today as it
was yesterday: “A conventional army loses if it doesn't win; the guerilla army
wins if it doesn't loose”.
26. The regime is still
strong enough to keep President Assad in power. But its legitimacy has been
severely, probably irreparably damaged and many are those who have serious
doubts that President Assad will be able to regain that legitimacy anytime
soon, if at all. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev of the Russian Federation has
come closer to the truth than most when he said a few days ago in Davos and I
quote: I think that every day, every week, every month the chances of him
(meaning President Assad) surviving are becoming less and less. And Prime
Minister Medevdev added “but I repeat, again, this must be decided by the
Syrian people. Not Russia, not the USA not any other country.”
27. Much has been said
in 2011 about the fact that in the countries of the so-called Arab spring “the
wall of fear has come down.” In the course of the dramatic developments of
these past months in the region, this may have been forgotten. But that is a
fundamental reality and it is as valid in Syria as it is elsewhere. The regime
in Damascus is still as repressive as it has been, if not more, and is engaging
in a full scale war against entire segments of its population, but it is
nevertheless still true that people are less afraid to speak out and many have
taken arms to challenge the domination of the regime. Indeed, many, as you
know, have deserted the ranks of the armed forces, the Police, the Government,
the Baath party and the bureaucracy.
28. In this connection
much nonsense has been written or said about what passed between President
Assad and myself when we met on 24 December 2012. Our conversation was in fact
perfectly “normal”, exactly what a conversation between a Head of State and a
United Nations Envoy is and should be. Our exchange was easy, candid and
mutually respectful. I invited the President to tell me how he saw the
situation and what he intended to do, and he did tell me. I then told him
honestly how I saw things and what, in my opinion, the reactions of Syrians and
non-Syrians would be to what he had told me of his forthcoming initiative. And
he listened to me with attention and patience.
29. I later spoke
publicly about President Assad’s speech of 6 January 2013. I stand by
everything I said except for the word “sectarian” which was not an accurate
description of what was in the speech. A few days later, on 9 January I think,
Syrian Minister of Foreign Affairs Walid al-Muallem sent to the
Secretary-General a memorandum, which tried to give an infinitely more positive
reading of the speech than what had been actually said by the President. And
yesterday, Syria’s Permanent Representative sent you another letter to inform
you of how his country’s Government is trying to implement President Assad’s
initiative.
30. The fact remains,
however, Mr. President that the Syrian parties to the conflict are still very
far apart. For President Bashar, the problem is almost exclusively, an external
conspiracy implemented by terrorist organizations trained, armed and funded by
external enemies of Syria. As for the opponents of the Government, they see a
popular uprising against a repressive regime that has lost its legitimacy. It
is important to note in this connection that this analysis of the opposition is
shared by all of the components of the opposition, those who are working from
abroad and those who are inside the country; those who have taken up arms and
those who still believe in the possibility of peaceful protest and action.
31. One change that has
taken place, however, deserves attention: the Government as well as opposition
groups now speak timidly of “a political solution” even if neither
appears to be ready to give up its fundamental preconditions.
For the government
those preconditions are that the “external conspiracy has to come to an end
first; funding and arming of the rebellion must be suspended and “the
terrorists” as they call their opponents put down their weapons; and
For the opposition
groups those preconditions are that President Assad abandons power, if not
immediately, within a very short period of time.
32. But this very
modest progress in no way means that things have changed enough for what I call
the “inner circle” meaning the Syrian track to be the place where a peaceful
process maybe initiated. The Syrians alas, are not really ready to talk to one
another even through intermediaries. They need much help to reach that stage.
33. And, as I said in
my previous briefing, at the regional level, the picture is not very promising
either. It is in fact worrisome. The challenge of building a regional consensus
for a peaceful settlement in Syria is made difficult by the clear alignment of
most regional parties with one or the other of the parties in Syria.
34. Grave concern is
expressed in many ways among Syria's immediate neighbors as to the present
impact of the Syrian crisis and of its future implications if the crisis
continues spiraling, as well, we all fear it could. There is, first and
foremost, the problem of the wellbeing of hundreds of thousands of displaced
Syrians rendered more serious by particularly harsh winter conditions. Public
opinion in each of those countries is already divided on the Syrian issue with
factions having expressed support for the government and others for the
opposition. The flow of Syrian refugees is increasingly becoming a matter of
controversy in those countries with some calling for an open borders policy to
help alleviate the displaced people’s misery and others insisting on closing
the borders before them. There are also strong indications that Syrian factions
are getting material support from allies in neighboring countries and that
citizens of those countries are fighting alongside their Syrian allies.
Hence the two big risks
that are of serious concern to the international community:
35. The first is the
transformation of Syria into a playground for competing regional forces,
governments and non-state actors alike. This process is largely underway and
can become acute in view of the high stakes embedded in the Syrian tragedy. As
many have already observed, what we are presently witnessing in Syria is AT THE
SAME TIME, and with the same intensity, a struggle INSIDE Syria and a struggle
FOR Syria. The combination of these two processes substantially fuels the
present conflict and complicates its settlement through diplomatic mediation.
36. The second, and no
less serious concern, is the risk of a full-fledged regionalization of the
Syrian civil war through the growing osmosis of that war with unresolved
domestic issues within its immediate environment. No country, and certainly not
Lebanon or Jordan, Iraq or Turkey, not to mention the Palestinians, is immune
to the military and political fallout of the Syrian civil war. The Syrian civil
war may well end up becoming contagious and affect the whole Levant where
similar sectarian makeups and cleavages are to be found not to mention
trans-state ideological and partisan movements. In other words, Mr. President,
far from being in a position to help Syrians solve their present problem, the
region is facing the risk of being itself contaminated by Syria’s difficulties
and engulfed in its crisis.
37. We are still where
we were two months ago: only the Security Council is in a position to help, if
I may so Mr. President, and the time to act is now.
Mr. President,
38. As you and the
other distinguished members of the Council are aware, since I last briefed the
Council I had three meetings with representatives of the Russian Federation and
the United States. The first meeting was in Dublin on 6 December and was
attended by Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and Foreign Minister Sergey
Lavrov, the second and third meetings took place in Geneva on 9 December 2012
and 11 January 2013 respectively, and were attended by the Personal
Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for the Middle East
and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and United States Deputy Secretary
of State Mr. William Burns.
39. I am deeply
grateful to Secretary Clinton and Foreign Minister Lavrov for meeting with me
in Dublin and for agreeing to the two other meetings with their respective
deputies. I will not be so presumptuous as to comment on those meetings in the
presence of Ambassador Susan Rice and Ambassador Vitaly Churkin.
Mr. President,
40. I am sorry if I
sound like an old, broken record. But I seriously don’t see where else one
should start or end except in saying that, things are bad and getting worse,
the country is breaking up before everyone’s eyes; there is no military
solution to this conflict – at least not one that will not destroy Syria
completely and destroy also the nation of Syria; Syrians cannot
themselves start a peace process, their neighbors are not able to help them;
only the international community may help and is the international community is
first and foremost the United Nations Security Council. And the Geneva
Communiqué and Action Plan offer good bases to initiate the necessary action to
provide that help.
41. There evidently is
now a better assessment worldwide, of the tragic dimension of the crisis and
its terrible consequences on the Syrian population and, no less important, of
the huge disintegrating impact it is having on the social fabric of the
country, of the rising influence of extremist groups on both sides and of the
growing violent sectarian alignments.
42. Compared to the upheavals
that have struck some countries in the Arab world, the Syrian conflict has
indisputably proven to be the deadliest and most intractable, the most
threatening for its neighbors and the most worrisome for the country’s future.
Does international action measure up to this climatic peak in the so-called
“Arab Spring”? Does the diplomatic management measure up to the dimensions of
the tragedy and the stakes at play? Does the pressure from third parties on the
belligerents to accept a negotiated settlement measure up to the violence and
devastation? To all these questions, I am sure you will agree, distinguished
members of the Council, the answer is, at best, a very polite “not enough.”
43. I think that public
opinion the world over is now looking up to the Security Council to take a
determined, strong lead.
44. The principles on
which the Council’s actions might be based are explicitly or implicitly
contained in the Geneva Communiqué:
a) Syria’s independence, sovereignty and
territorial integrity must be preserved;
b) There must be clear recognition that
the ultimate objective is to enable the Syrian people to exercise their
legitimate rights to dignity and human rights and to have a full say in the
manner in which they are governed;
c) An essential element in that process is
the formation of a transitional Government with full executive powers. The
meaning of “full executive powers” has to be clarified before the Syrian
parties come together to discuss the formation of that transitional government.
Leaving that definition, the definition of full executive powers, to the
parties is fairly certain to lead to a dead end;
In this connection, the
Geneva communiqué was elegant and creative in that it did not speak of
President Bashar Al-Assad and his role in the transition and beyond. I think,
however, it is largely understood that “governing body with full executive
powers” clearly meant that the President would have no role in the transition;
Now, Mr. President,
And this is another
point that needs to be taken into consideration,
d) The actual negotiation should take
place between a strong, fully representative team on behalf of the opposition
and a strong civilian- military delegation representing the Government. Of
course both negotiating teams should be comprised of individuals capable of
reaching a compromise agreement during a reasonable period of time;
e) These negotiations should start outside
of Syria and take place according to an agreed timetable to enable the process
to move – as fast as possible - towards the democratic process which would
include the election, constitutional reform and referendum. From what I heard
in Damascus and elsewhere, it will not be to difficult to secure agreement to
move the country from the present Presidential system to a Parliamentary system
of Government;
f) It is important that the Council
unequivocally expresses support for the right of each citizen in Syria to enjoy
full equality before the law irrespective of gender, religion, language or
ethnicity.
Mr. President, Distinguished Members of the Council
45. I have put down a
number of elements, which in my view could inform an initiative of the Security
Council, which in turn would offer a base for negotiations between a team
representing the opposition and another acting on behalf of the Government.
This, of course, not a
draft resolution; I would not be so presumptuous as to submit such a draft to
all the experts around this table.
Mr. President,
46. I have been blamed
by many because I did not submit my plan for the resolution of the
conflict soon enough.
I accept that
criticism. In my defense, I will only say that I did not consider that
presenting my own personal plan was the main objective of my mission.
I thought and still
think that the main objective was and still is to ensure that there is a SYRIAN
PLAN, a plan that the Syrians can accept and implement.
47. I believe that
difficult as it is, reaching that stage is possible. But it is necessary to
obtain, first, a strong, unequivocal support from the Security Council. And
that is what I am asking you Mr. Chairman and honorable delegates today.
