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| Hurricane Sandy on October 25 (Wikipedia) |
By Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of al-Hayat
daily, writing in Arabic
I watched in awe superstorm Sandy wreak havoc across
the U.S. East Coast. I saw homes in ruin, flooded streets, cars floating
downstream and boats stacked atop one another. TV screens kept everyone
informed about Sandy’s powerful gusts and storm surges, the human and material
losses it was causing and its likely impact on the impending Election Day.
Nature’s power can at times be so destructive and
devastating as to wreck all Man’s endeavors and inventions and send them
spinning.
But despite the killer-storm pounding New York and
other places into submission, I felt envious. The Americans have a state, a
president and a Congress to legislate and oversee the executive branch. They
have fire brigades, civil defense authorities and a president to declare “major
disaster” areas, where the number of deaths is nowhere near the daily quota of
massacre and suicide fatalities in our cheerful capitals.
A guilty conscience nagged at me for focusing on a
distant hurricane. So I switched back to TV channels focusing on Damascus,
Maarat al-Nouman, Beirut, Baghdad, Sana’a and other such “disaster” cities.
Watching the news leads me to believe a megastorm is
moving to the Middle East, where it could change long-established maps and
sweep regimes and countries, precipitating rivers of blood in the process. The
gusts of wind and rain gathering ahead of the hurricane’s landfall are the
following:
1. The Israel-Iran
war did not break out yet, but we’ve seen some of its preambles; the
assassination of scientists; the targeting of tourists; the bombing of Iranian
weapon and ammunition depots in Sudan; and the sending from Lebanon of an
Iranian-built drone to fly over Israel. The drone’s mission shows Iran at
Israel’s doorstep via Hezbollah. It also confirms South Lebanon will flare up
on the outbreak, or eve, of the war. It’s difficult to imagine the United
States staying out of the fray, if only because Iran’s expected retaliation
will necessarily undermine American interests in the region.
2.
It’s not
difficult, however, to imagine the explosive nature of the ongoing conflict in
Syria. The Iranian regime cannot tolerate concomitant defeats on her Syrian and
nuclear fronts. Iran will most probably play all her cards to protect her Syria
outgrowth and nuclear ambitions. This war will be more dangerous than the Iraq War for many reasons, given
the looming war’s multiple theaters.
3. The worsening of
Sunnite-Shiite relations is unprecedented. A look at the situations in Iraq,
Lebanon, Bahrain and other places will suffice. Bloody flashpoints are
sprouting across borders.
4.
Despite the “spring”
nature of the early stages of the uprising in Syria, the blood-soaked conflict there
cannot be dissociated today from the crisis among Syria’s constituent elements or
the fate of Iran’s nuclear program or the Sunnite-Shiite estrangement.
5. The fact
international borders are no more sacrosanct is noteworthy. Whenever turmoil
besets a country, it becomes a magnet for roving fighters who proceed to impose
their ways, colors and slogans on events, creating unsightly scenes
incompatible with “spring.” At the same time, masses that overthrew despotic
rulers are disappointed to see the new powers that be sailing to the past, not
the future. Add to these masses’ disenchantment the growing despair from the international
community’s empty rhetoric of a two-state solution.
Everything suggests the hurricane is approaching. The
Arabs are the more vulnerable side in the region. That’s why they are in the
eye of the megastorm. The settling of Iranian-Turkish accounts on Syrian soil
is evident. Iraq has clearly failed to mend its national unity. Lebanon is insisting
on defying the monster storm. Jordan is frantically fumbling around its
borders.
Poor hurricane Sandy – it barreled a U.S. region and
left. It might still look like a breeze compared to the hurricane about to
pummel our lands in the absence of safety valves. It is no exaggeration to say
the Arabs can expect to be hit by a hurricane. They are already in its
clutches.
