 |
| "Old Guard" generals Mustafa Tlass (left) and Hikmat Shihabi |
The
Syrian regime is faltering.
The
finding is by a leading political analyst who is in Damascus’ good books.
He
quotes Syrian military and intelligence sources and Damascus allies as saying:
==Syria’s
fate has slipped away from the hands of regime loyalists and opponents and the
country has entered the deadly “game of nations.”
==Violence
will take at least a year, if not more, before subsiding.
==There
are worrying signs that military personnel are defecting to the opposition in
greater numbers together with their tanks and heavy weapons.
==A third
force of organized and well-armed criminals, unconnected to the regime or the
opposition, has joined the fray to sow panic in Damascus and its suburbs.
==The scions of two retired military
bulwarks of the regime deciding to cross the aisle and help the opposition have
overburdened President Bashar al-Assad.
According to leading political analyst Nicolas
Nassif, writing today for the
staunchly pro-Assad Beirut daily al-Akhbar:
 |
| Al-Akhbar's Nicolas Nassif |
Both
the regime and the opposition have “totally lost the ability to initiate or
control the events and chaos in Syria.” As happened to Lebanon during its civil war years, “Syria
is no longer in the Syrians’ hands.” Both the regime and the opposition are no more
able to backpedal or press on with their agendas except at a prohibitive price.
This
impression is reinforced by gloomy readings of the situation that Syria’s
allies in Lebanon are getting from Damascus.
Without
suggesting the Syrian National Council is about to take over power or that the Syria
army is collapsing, Damascus’ allies are not convinced regime forces remain in
control of the situation on the ground.
Lebanese
allies returning from visits to Damascus quote highly placed security officials
responsible for protecting the regime as saying “it would take a year or more
to stifle the armed opposition.” The officials have stopped talking of the
regime coming out on top within weeks or months.
The
Damascus visitors say, “A new but dangerous phenomenon is beginning to perturb
the regime, the army and Military Intelligence in particular – namely, the
defection of soldiers to opposition ranks with their tanks and heavy weapons.”
Although such cases are not many, “they have become a reality that risks
growing. This prompted Military Intelligence to be ultra vigilant and take
extra precautionary measures to prevent heavy weapons falling into the hands of
the opposition. That would threaten the army’s unity, installations, bases and
barracks.”
Lebanon’s
pro- and anti-Assad camps now share the view that Syria has effectively entered
the deadly “game of nations.” Hence their search for common grounds to keep
Lebanon out of the Syrian quagmire.
Lebanese
allies returning from Syria say its regime “is grappling with another problem
that surfaced just a month ago – specifically, the emergence of criminal gangs now harassing the regime
and citizens. Given the deterioration of security and the collapse of state,
intelligence and army prestige, these posses are using their weapons and
explosives to sow fear in the capital Damascus and it suburbs as well as in
other Syrian cities. They are blackmailing financiers, industrialists and major
traders to pay them protection money… They have become the ‘third force’ on the
ground.”
Lastly,
there are credible reports coming from various sources in and out of Syria
saying scions of two regime “Old Guard” figures are now helping the opposition.
They
are:
(1) Manaf
and Firas Tlass, sons of Gen.
Mustafa Tlass, who is now based in Paris. Gen. Mustafa Tlass served as
Syria’s defense minister for 32 years between 1972 and 2004.
(2) A son (unnamed) of Gen. Hikmat Shihabi, the former chief of staff (1974-1998). Shihabi was
retired in 1998 in a housecleaning purge prior to Hafez al-Assad's death. As
Hafez lay dying, Syrian papers published leaks saying Shihabi would be indicted
on corruption charges. Shihabi, who was in Lebanon at the time, boarded a plane
and fled to exile in California. However, a month later, Shihabi returned and
was officially "rehabilitated" by Bashar. But he left Damascus for self-exile
abroad about two months ago.
