Lebanon returns to the Saudi fold

The Salams, father and son

The Lebanese media is strangely of one mind: Saudi Arabia has supplanted Syria as kingmaker in Lebanon.

Beirut’s pro-Saudi lawmaker Tammam Salam -- eldest son of the late six-time Prime Minister Saeb Salam, who was Riyadh’s pointman in Lebanon throughout his decades-long political life – is set to head a new Lebanese government.

“Tammam Salam is premier-designate… by Saudi fiat” is how Ms Hiyam Qusaybati headlines her front-page lead for Beirut’s al-Akhbar daily, which speaks for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Hezbollah.

As-Safir, another Lebanese daily close to the Syrian regime and Hezbollah, echoes the perspective with a banner headline saying: “Saudi comeback… through Jumblatt’s candidate for the premiership.”

And according to the front-page lead of Lebanon’s leading independent daily al-Nahar, the expected nomination at the weekend of Tammam Salam as premier-designate marks a “Revival of the 2009 alliance and of Saudi auspices.”

Salam has already won endorsement of his nomination from the pro-Saudi March 14 alliance headed by former Premier Saad Hariri and from most members of the pro-Syrian and Hezbollah-led March 8 coalition.

President Michel Sleiman is thus expected to conclude his weekend consultations by asking him to form a new government.

Lebanon watchers agree the facilitator of Saudi Arabia’s comeback to center stage in Lebanon and of Tammam Salam’s nomination for prime minister is none other than Walid Jumblatt, the one and only eminence grise in Lebanese politics.

Today’s print and electronic media are replete with Junblatt’s disclosures -- about Salam’s nomination and Saudi Arabia’s role -- in his interview with LBC TV anchorman Marcel Ghanem overnight.

Jumblatt, who holds the balance of power in parliament through the seven seats of his Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), told Ghanem:

• I chose Mr. Tammam Salam, nominated him and contacted him. He hails from an historic, moderate family and I hope everyone will positively receive him.
• I don't want to say (March 14 leader) Saad Hariri was dismayed when I proposed Salam, but his response was lukewarm. Hezbollah had the same reaction when I contacted them. Hariri's choice for prime minister was former Internal Security Forces chief Maj. Gen. Ashraf Rifi. But I told Hariri that Rifi is a confrontational candidate (to the March 8 alliance). And when Hezbollah asked me if I had a candidate other than Salam, I said no -- because he hails from a moderate family and he never said a bad word about the Resistance.
• During (PSP legislator) Wael Abu-Faour's second visit to Saudi Arabia, we rejected several names that were proposed, including Ashraf Rifi. Yesterday, during my telephone conversation with Hariri, he insisted on Ashraf Rifi but I rejected the name. I rejected the nominee despite his absolute competence. Even Wael rejected Rifi during his talks with (Saudi Intelligence Chief) Prince Bandar because we want a consensual candidate.
• I'm still a centrist and when I allowed myself to name Tammam Salam, I named a historically centrist political dynasty. And I won’t endorse or participate in any one-sided government. I will only give my vote of confidence to a government inclusive of all parties. Members of a national unity cabinet, not me, will thus decide the ministerial Policy Statement.
• I call for managing our differences inside the cabinet until the end of the Syrian crisis. My words were clear during my meeting with Prince Bandar that whatever the outcome of the Syrian revolution let no one think of any negative move against Hezbollah. Dialogue with Hezbollah is inevitable. I won’t accept to condemn the party and I don't approve of Obama's description (of Hezbollah as a terrorist organization).
• In the heart of Saudi Arabia, I said we want dialogue with Hezbollah in Lebanon and I call on Hariri to engage in dialogue, organize the differences and implement the policy of “dissociating” from the Syria crisis. I hope Salam will follow suit.

Interestingly, my train of thought leads to note the following:

1. Saeb Salam, Tammam’s father, went into exile in Geneva in 1985 after surviving two assassination attempts. He had angered the Syrian regime of Hafez Assad with conciliatory stands he had taken at peace conferences held at Geneva and Lausanne the year before, and he did not feel safe to return to Lebanon until 1994. Five years earlier, he told my weekly magazine, Monday Morning, in an exclusive interview (see cover photo above) that his nominee for the Lebanese presidency was Raymond Edde. Edde was already living in self-exile in Paris after three Syrian attempts on his life in 1976.
2. Walid Jumblatt’s father, Kamal Jumblatt, was assassinated near a Syrian army checkpoint in March 1977.
3. Rafik Hariri, Saad’s father, was killed when a ton of TNT targeted his motorcade on Beirut’s shoreline. In its first two reports, the UN International Independent Investigation Commission (UNIIIC) indicated the Syrian government might be linked to the assassination.

“U.S. spooks and Lebanon’s Tripoli clashes”

Tripoli gunmen in action (Photo from Lebanon's daily an-Nahar) 

The Beirut daily al-Akhbar, which is a leading mouthpiece for Syria in Lebanon, claims a tipoff from U.S. intelligence is what brought about the arrest by Lebanon’s General Security Department of Syrian opposition supporter Shadi al-Mawlawi in Tripoli.

The arrest -- linked to unrest in neighboring Syria -- sparked off three days of clashes between Lebanese Alawites and Sunnites in Lebanon’s second largest city that has recently become home to thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing the violence in Syria.

The faceoff since Saturday between Tripoli's two adjacent districts -- the predominantly Sunnite ‘Bab al-Tebbaneh’ and the overwhelmingly Alawite ‘Jabal Mohsen’ -- has left eight people dead and about 80 injured.

The General Security Department arrested Mawlawi, a Lebanese Sunnite Islamist opposed to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, after luring him to a government minister’s welfare association office to supposedly receive healthcare assistance.

Lebanese security separately arrested other men, including one Jordanian and one Qatari.

A military prosecutor has now charged Mawlawi “of belonging to an armed terrorist organization.”

According to al-Akhbar, “several (Lebanese) security officials say U.S. security agencies informed the General Security Department that a Jordanian by the name of Abdelmalek Abdessalam had crossed into Lebanon from Syria and is about to leave the country.

“The Americans said Abdessalam coordinates al-Qaeda activities in several countries, among them Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. The General Security Department having alerted the border crossings, Abdessalam was held at Beirut International Airport when trying to board a flight to Amman.

“Abdessalam confirmed the suspicions against him during interrogation… He admitted receiving funds from a Qatari citizen, Abdelaziz al-Atiyah, who was also seized at his hotel (in a Beirut suburb), where he was recovering from surgery. He has now been moved to a hospital in Mount Lebanon.

“Abdessalam gave interrogators the nom de guerre of his Lebanese contact as ‘Adam’… A phone number tracked down ‘Adam,’ who turned out to be Mawlawi.”

Lebanese army regulars and police forces are today patrolling Tripoli and seem to have restored calm.

The army said in a statement its units finished deploying in the violence-stricken areas of the city, including Bab al-Tebbaneh, Jabal Mohsen and the Syria Street separating the two neighborhoods bitterly split over loyalties linked to the Syrian uprising.

The number of Lebanon’s Alawites is undetermined, varying between a high of 120,000 and a low of 70,000. About 60 percent of them reside in Jabal Mohsen. Most of the rest live in the north Lebanese governorate of Akkar.

No Alawite has ever been named government minister in the Republic of Lebanon’s history. And it was only three years after the 1989 Taef Agreement that Alawites were able to fill their two allocated seats in the 128-member Lebanese parliament.

Both Alawite legislators in the current parliament – Khodr Habib and Badr Wannous – were elected on a (anti-Assad) Future Movement ticket.

But the uncontested overlords of Lebanon’s Alawites are Ali Eid and his son Rifaat, both diehard supporters of Syria’s Assad dynasty. Rifaat was once quoted saying, “Our special links to Syria, of which we are proud, are no different than the Shiites’ to Iran, the Sunnites to Saudi Arabia, or the Maronites’ to France.”

Lebanese political analyst Rosanna Boumounsef today notes in her daily column for Beirut’s independent daily an-Nahar the Syria crisis has left the government of Prime Minister Najib Mikati in a quandary.

“Whereas the stands of the premier, his ministers of interior and of finance and parliamentarian Walid Jumblatt were critical of the security agency’s malapropos arrest that caused the turmoil in Tripoli, government ministers and legislators belonging to the (pro-Assad) ‘March 8’ coalition defended it… The split can only add fuel to the fire.”

Progressive Socialist Party leader Jumblatt says in remarks for his PSP weekly al-Anbaa published today:

“It is not the first time tension and acts of violence grip Tripoli…

“You cannot dissociate events there from the diligence of some security agencies – apparently motivated by Syria – in deeming Salafism an absolute evil. I wish one of these agencies’ bigwigs would come forward to define to us Salafism.

“Why this dogged insistence on magnifying the Salafist threat? How pervasive is it in Lebanon? Is it restricted to Sunni Muslims? Why is it constantly linked to terrorism…?

“Aren’t we being led to believe Lebanon has become a Salafist hub so we cutoff help and humanitarian assistance to Syrian refugees in Lebanon and (acquiesce) to the arrest of activists among them who would then be handed over to the authorities in Syria to face execution?

“And why this determination to ‘import’ al-Qaeda to Lebanon at all costs? Will al-Qaeda also be used as a scarecrow to gag Lebanese support for the Syrian revolution and the Syrian people who are facing the systematic and daily crimes being committed by the regime in Syria?

“…Why the lack of full coordination among all Lebanese security agencies? Is it because each has it own political patron?

“…Does this explain why telecom date was not released to a security branch trying to uncover the persons behind the attempt on the life of Lebanese Forces chief Samir Geagea?

“…Better we calmed things down and opted for reconciliation to clear the atmosphere in Tripoli… Better we devised a wide-ranging economic development plan to tackle Tripoli’s misery and resumed the national dialogue on a comprehensive national defense strategy under state authority…”

March, an ill-starred month for Druze leaders

Clockwise from top: Sultan Pasha al-Atrash, Kamal Jumblatt and Sheikh Ahmad Salman al-Hajri

Lebanon’s foremost Druze leader Walid Jumblatt restated today his call on residents of the Syrian Druze stronghold of Jabal al-Arab, also known as Jabal al-Druze, to join the Syrian uprising against President Bashar al-Assad.

His appeal came in a cable to Syrian activist Muntaha al-Atrash on the occasion of the 30^th anniversary of the death of her father, Sultan Pasha al-Atrash.

Jumblatt wrote Atrash in the cable posted on the website of his Progressive Socialist Party, “On the occasion of the anniversary of the death of Sultan Pasha al-Atrash, which coincides with the martyrdom of Kamal Jumblatt… we renew the call to our Jabal al-Arab brethren to enlist in the revolution in keeping with their struggle and patriotism history…”

March seems an ill-starred month for Druze leaders.

Sultan Pasha al-Atrash was 91 when he passed away on March 26, 1982.

Walid’s father, Kamal Jumblatt, was shot dead in his car on March 16, 1977, as it approached a Syrian military checkpoint in Lebanon’s Chouf district.

And the highest spiritual leader of Syria’s 700,000-strong Druze community, Sheikh al-‘Aql Ahmad Salman al-Hajri, was killed on Sunday, March 25, in a car accident which Syrian activists say was staged by the regime.

In today's Kuwaiti daily al-Watan, columnist Fuad al-Hashem says a Syrian “military vehicle” rammed Hajri’s car and killed him after he “refused on three occasions to appear on state TV to endorse Assad.”

Also today, Yacoub Kara, a Druze legislator in Israel’s Knesset, is quoted as saying Hajri’s death was staged in an “accident” that is archetypal for eliminating regime opponents in Syria.

“Suspicious death” of Syria Druze spiritual leader

The late Sheikh Ahmad Salman al-Hajri

An array of Syrian activists are accusing President Bashar al-Assad’s regime of staging the “car accident” that killed Sheikh al-‘Aql Ahmad Salman al-Hajri, the highest spiritual leader of Syria’s 700,000-strong Druze community.

A rugged and mountainous region in southwest Syria known as Jabal al-Arab is more than 90 percent Druze-inhabited. Some 120 villages are exclusively Druze-populated.

There are only two Syrian provinces in which Sunni Moslems are not a majority: Soueida, where Druze predominate, and Latakia, where Alawites are a majority.

A statement by the state-run Syrian News Agency (SANA) said Hajri, a 1954 native of Soueida who succeeded his father Salman as Syria’s Sheikh al-‘Aql in 1989, died in a “tragic” two-car collision on the Mardak-Shahba road.

Syrian activists say the regime staged yesterday’s “car accident” to get rid of Hajri for withstanding pressure to endorse its crackdown on the uprising.

One website carries these two comments on the foul play, which if substantiated could mobilize Syria’s Druze against Assad:

Sultan Pasha al-Atrash and daughter Muntaha

1. “After his stands, which were growing ever closer to the Syrian revolution’s and his rows with security officials in Soueida for refusing to support Assad, Sheikh Ahmad al-Hajri was killed in a staged car accident, according to our informed sources in restive Shahba.”
2. “Is it pure coincidence to have three Soueida people killed in car accidents? They are Fadlallah Hijaz, who had served 10 years in prison; Kamal al-Maghoush, a former army officer who served 15 years; and now Hajri.”

The Syrian regime’s two most prominent Druze opponents are Lebanon’s Walid Jumblatt and Syria’s Muntaha al-Atrash, daughter of Sultan Pasha al-Atrash, who led the 1925-1927 Syrian revolution against the French.

The case for regime change in Syria

Kamal Jumblatt, killed in 1977

Lebanon Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, whose father Kamal was shot and killed in 1977 and whose Progressive Socialist Party is represented in government by two ministers, explained in a statement this week why he expects Russia and Iran to support regime change in Syria. Following is my English wording of his Arabic text:

Much as Václav Havel, the great intellectual, essayist and late president of Czechoslovakia, wrote about the “Power of the Powerless,” martyr Kamal Jumblatt spoke of “shirtless men eventually liberating the world.”

All historical experiences show peoples move forward, not backward. What is built on falsehood is unsustainable since [the Almighty] “defers but does not overlook.”

It’s as if the “Power of the Powerless” was meant to describe current events when it was written by Václav Havel, the playwright who lived through the 1968 Prague Spring that saw the Red Army quash attempts at political reform by Czechoslovakia’s then-prime minister Alexander Dubček, and later returned to lead the 1989 Velvet Revolution after spending several years behind bars as a political prisoner.

Indeed, it is the power of the powerless that sparked, and is sparking, Arab revolutions demanding, freedom, dignity and pride.

And much as Jean Balach set himself on fire in 1969 to protest a totalitarian regime, Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in Tunisia to protest oppression and humiliation. History is a cumulative trail and an open book to whoever wants to draw lessons.

Russia would probably be better advised to contemplate the principle of “Power of the Powerless” in addressing the situation facing its Syria ally, acknowledging that security solutions won’t unravel the current crisis, which can only be solved by regime change.

Instead of clinging to a regime that did not learn the Hama lessons of 1981 that mirror Budapest’s in 1956, Russia would do better to counsel the regime that rotating power is more important than holding onto it and shedding blood. Didn’t Russia rise against Tsarist tyranny before?

It would be advisable as well if the Islamic Republic contemplated the “Power of the Powerless” principle and if Imam Khomeini’s successors remembered it was the principle used to bring down the Shah of Iran in a great historical struggle, which proved that bare chests roaring for freedom and democracy could face up to omnipotent regimes.

Iranian missiles might have great military impact, but reverberations of the words of the great poet Saadi Shirazi are more potent. The sons of the Islamic Revolution ought to remember what Shirazi wrote to redress the injustice afflicting the Syrian people: “We’re humane and our roots are one and the same, so how can we enjoy life when others hurt? How can we breathe in pleasure and abundance when we see a brother in distress?”

[The Druze, better known as] Bani Maarouf in Syria also know that popular movements don’t backtrack, that collective memory is unforgiving, and that the shirtless in Deraa, Sanamain, Basra al-Harir, Khirbat al-Ghazalah, Idlib, Homs, Hama and the various other Syrian towns and villages control the future because they represent the “Power of the Powerless.” It is high time they refrained from joining police forces and military units cracking down on the Syrian people. Scores of them (Druzes) have been returned home in coffins after fighting their folks in other parts of Syria.

The thousands of shirtless who fought and won in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen under the banner of “Power of the Powerless” will be followed suit in other countries. It is the logic of history and its rule. Indeed, [He] “defers but does not overlook.”