Why Geneva-2 on Syria is a dead duck

Obama arms Syrian rebels (www.hawaiireporter.com)

According to today’s Wall Street Journal, “The Central Intelligence Agency has begun moving weapons to Jordan from a network of secret warehouses and plans to start arming small groups of vetted Syrian rebels within a month, expanding U.S. support of moderate forces battling President Bashar al-Assad, according to diplomats and U.S. officials briefed on the plans.

“The shipments, related training and a parallel push to mobilize arms deliveries from European and Arab allies are being timed to allow a concerted push by the rebels starting by early August, the diplomats and officials said, revealing details of a new covert plan authorized by President Barack Obama and disclosed earlier this month.

“The CIA is expected to spend up to three weeks bringing light arms and possibly antitank missiles to Jordan. The agency plans to spend roughly two weeks more vetting an initial group of fighters and making sure they know how to use the weapons that they are given, clearing the way for the first U.S.-armed rebels to enter the fight, diplomats briefed on the CIA's plans said.

“Talks are under way with other countries, including France, about pre-positioning European-procured weapons in Jordan. Saudi Arabia is expected to provide shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles, known as MANPADs, to a small number of handpicked fighters, as few as 20 at first, officials and diplomats said. The U.S. would monitor this effort, too, to try to reduce the risk that the MANPADs could fall into the hands of Islamists.

“Up to a few hundred of the fighters will enter Syria under the program each month, starting in August, according to diplomats briefed on CIA plans.

“At that rate, U.S. and Saudi officials believe it would take four to five months before there are enough rearmed and trained moderate fighters to make a meaningful difference against Assad's forces and their Hezbollah allies, according to diplomats and U.S. officials…”

Writing today for the pan-Arab newspaper al-Hayat, Lebanese political analyst Abdelwahhab Badrakhan explains why talk of a political solution in Syria anytime soon is haywire:

At the dawn of the revolution, Syria-watchers expected the regime to propose a live-and-let-live compromise to weather the storm, if not to take the wind out of the sails of protesters.

The Syria-watchers were citing previous instances when the regime caved in and agreed terms set by previous adversaries such as Israel, Turkey’s military and Washington.

The regime will now do the same to live on and avoid a losing war against its people, they were saying.

The Syria-watchers were proven wrong when the regime refused to cede an inch to its opponents and chose to engage them in a do-or-die struggle.

A year-and-a-half later, some people thought Iran, which was backing the regime and milking Iraq to fund it, would use her pragmatism and realism to check Damascus’ recklessness, having failed to use backroom talks on her nuclear program to save it. She did not.

Iran chose not to build on Russia’s and some Western states’ amenability to Assad to thrash out a reasonable denouement to the crisis.

Instead, she dovetailed Assad’s plans and supplemented them with an undertaking to foil the “conspiracy against the Axis of Resistance.”

Iran’s fervor to “ignite the region” and stoke the fires of sectarianism now surpass the regime’s zeal. She had no qualms about turning Hezbollah forces into guns-for-hire and contract killers in Syria and Lebanon.

Until the past few weeks, there were also people who thought change would turn up in Moscow.

Russia is a Big Power carrying the responsibility to protect (R2P). She is aware that her and the others’ talk of external “interventions” is sheer manipulation of the crisis. Proof is that at no one stage did the regime truly and directly risk being overthrown.

Moreover, in their uninterrupted contacts, the Americans let the Russians know that the West did not intend to intervene in Syria and that a political solution was and remains the immutable goal of the Obama Administration.

The Russians refuse to play ball. It serves them well to let the crisis drag on and to persevere in rubbing the West’s nose so long as the regime holds out.

By insisting to manage the crisis, Russia finds herself adopting the policies of a rogue state with a mindset cloned from Iran and Syria.

All this to say that waiting for a political solution anytime soon is like waiting for Godot -- it is simply not on the regime or its two principal partners’ mind.

G7 leaders must have felt this from their Russian partner at the G7+1 summit in Northern Ireland.

They must have realized their Russian partner wants to use them as tools to continue the Syria war.

He is their partner in the war on the “terrorists” he uses against them.

He is the G7’s partner in figuring an end to the crisis. But he is also the partner of the Syrian and Iranian regimes in distancing that end pending their victory on the battleground.

He is the G7’s partner in the search for stability in the region. But he is also the partner of the Syrian and Iranian regimes in plans to overwhelm the G7’s Arab allies.

He is their partner in forestalling sectarian conflicts in and around Syria. But he is also the partner of the Syrian and Iranian regimes in stoking the fires of religious wars.

G7 leaders were made aware their Russian partner is not interested in Geneva-2 unless it upholds the regime in one way or another.

Washington’s decision to arm Syrian opposition forces and to re-balance their fight with the regime and bring about a diplomatic solution when none is in sight is like a blind man in a dark room looking for a black cat that isn’t there.

Putin-Assad twosome comes out on top

G8 Superstar Vladimir Putin

The Vladimir Putin-Bashar al-Assad alliance emphatically won yesterday’s G8 summit finals in Northern Ireland, according to Abdelbari Atwan.

The publisher/editor-in-chief of the London-based pan-Arab newspaper al-Quds al-Arabi writes in Arabic this morning:

Proof the Russian president came out on top at the G8 meeting is corroborated by three peculiarities in the summit’s final statement on Syria, namely:

1. Absence of any explicit and unambiguous call on his partner Assad to stand down as the sine qua non of a political solution to the Syria crisis.
2. Strong endorsement of Geneva-2, where the Syrian regime will be represented by Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem. This translates into recognition of the regime’s legitimacy.
3. A commitment by the G8 leaders to fight and destroy Islamic extremist groups affiliated to al-Qaeda or other Muslim Jihadist organizations.

Thus, after a 26-month uprising and over 100,000 chiefly innocent Syrian fatalities, G8 leaders agree with Assad that he is fighting armed gangs.

This conclusion must have shocked and shaken the armed Syrian opposition, its supporters and its sponsors, especially the Gulf Arab states.

Britain’s Prime Minister David Cameron, one of the most ardent Western advocates of arming the Syrian opposition, said, “Yes, there are elements of the Syrian opposition that are deeply unsavory, that are very dangerous, very extremist, and I want nothing to do with them.

“I'd like them driven out of Syria; they're linked to al-Qaeda. But there are elements of the Syrian opposition who want to see a free, democratic, pluralistic Syria that respects the rights of minorities, including Christians, and we should be working with them...

“We have to learn the lessons of Iraq by ensuring the key institutions of the state are maintained through the transition and there is no vacuum.”

Cameron used two very indicative expressions – drive out Islamic extremists and avoid a political vacuum.

The question that begs an answer is this: Who would drive out the extremists and how? The Free Syrian Army under the command of Chief of Staff Gen. Salim Idriss, who was picked by the U.S, and the West as sole conduit of arms aid to opposition forces? Given the arms and funds, the man is presumably prepared to do the job. Gulf countries can chip in and provide both.

Cameron’s suggestion of ridding Syria of extremists is easier said than done, if not impossible in the foreseeable future. The Jihadists groups already have a pervasive presence in Syrian opposition ranks.

Assad told the German premier daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung in an interview published on the eve of the G8 summit: “My current term ends in 2014. When the country is in a crisis, the president is expected to shoulder the burden of responsibility and resolve the situation, not abandon his duties and leave.

“I often use the analogy of a captain navigating a ship hit by a storm; just imagine the captain jumping ship and escaping in a lifeboat!

“If I decide to leave now, I would be committing treason. If on the other hand, the public decided I should step down, that would be another issue. And this can only be determined through elections or a referendum.”

A Russian president like Putin, who keeps saying he won’t allow a no-fly zone over Syria and he will continue arms shipment to Damascus, backs Assad.

An American president with trembling knees, who was stung by two defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan and half or quarter of a victory in Libya, backs the Syrian opposition.

Isn’t Assad justified to relax and stretch his legs?

For the nth time, their Western and Arab “friends” have duped the Syrian people.

G8 leaders agree laughable Syria statement

G8 leaders issued a closing statement on the second and final day of their summit in Northern Ireland backing calls for Syria peace talks in Geneva "as soon as possible."


The UK's David Cameron said leaders had "overcome fundamental differences,” but there was no timetable for the Geneva talks or mention of Bashar al-Assad's future role.

The Kremlin refused to support any statement making Assad's removal from power an explicit goal.

Answering one of his final questions, the Russian President Vladimir Putin said Western states should think "very carefully" before arming the Syrian opposition.

He mentioned the recent fatal stabbing of British soldier Lee Rigby on the streets of London, comparing "many" of the Syrian rebels to the perpetrators.

"We fulfill legal contracts" delivering weapons to Assad, Putin said, adding non-government Syrian groups should not be supplied with arms.

French President Francois Hollande said it's necessary to give the Syrian opposition all the support it needs -- humanitarian, material, and political -- whilst weeding out "terrorist" elements.

He said Putin accepted participating in discussions about Syria in order to try to find joint positions, including the need for an enquiry into the use of chemical weapons.

The French leader said the proposed Geneva conference "could happen within a short period of time" and it represents a chance for a political transition. It was in Putin’s interests to make the Geneva peace conference on Syria happen, he said.

Here is what the G8 leaders said on Syria in their final statement:

Foreign Policy

82. We are determined to work together to stop the bloodshed and loss of life in Syria and to support the Syrian people to establish peace and stability through political means. We are gravely concerned at the appalling human tragedy that the UN estimates has cost the lives of over 93,000 people and led to 4.2 million internally displaced persons and 1.6 million refugees. We acknowledge the vital humanitarian role played by neighboring countries hosting Syrian refugees, above all Lebanon and Jordan, in dealing with the significant economic and security pressures they are facing as a result of the conflict and refugee influx. 

83. Given the extraordinary humanitarian need as reflected in the latest UN appeal for $5.2 billion in 2013, we are resolved to make exceptional contributions commensurate with the scale of the problem. At this meeting G8 Leaders confirmed additional contributions of almost $1.5 billion to meet humanitarian needs in Syria and its neighbors. We recognize that further contributions will be needed given the scale of the challenge. We urge other countries and organizations to make similar commitments. We call for aid agencies to be given immediate access to provide humanitarian assistance to all civilians in need, in accordance with humanitarian principles and international law, particularly in the worst affected areas such as Qusayr. 

84. We remain committed to achieving a political solution to the crisis based on a vision for a united, inclusive and democratic Syria.  We strongly endorse the decision to hold as soon as possible the Geneva Conference on Syria to implement fully the Geneva Communiqué of 30 June 2012, which sets out a number of key steps  beginning with agreement on a transitional governing body with full executive powers, formed by mutual consent. As the Geneva Communiqué says, the public services must be preserved or restored. This includes the military forces and security services. However all governmental institutions and state offices must perform according to professional and human rights standards, operating under a top leadership that inspires public confidence, under the control of the transitional governing body. 

85. Both sides at the Conference must engage seriously and constructively. They should be fully representative of the Syrian people and committed to the implementation of the Geneva Communiqué and to the achievement of stability and reconciliation. We will engage actively with the parties in order to achieve successful outcomes.  

86. We are deeply concerned by the growing threat from terrorism and extremism in Syria, and also by the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict.  Syria must belong to all Syrians, including its minorities and all religious groups. We call on the Syrian authorities and opposition at the Geneva Conference jointly to commit to destroying and expelling from Syria all organizations and individuals affiliated to Al Qaeda, and any other non-state actors linked to terrorism.  We will support UN planning for Syria’s transition, recovery, and reconstruction needs, in particular by maintaining continuity of state institutions during transition and helping to ensure that the security forces are effective, accountable and able to deal with the threat of terrorism and extremism. 

87. We condemn any use of chemical weapons in Syria and call on all parties to the conflict to allow access to the UN investigating team mandated by the UN Secretary-General, and drawing on the expertise of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and World Health Organization (WHO), in order to conduct an objective investigation into reports of use of chemical weapons. The UN team should make their report and deliver it to the UN Security Council for their assessment. We are determined that those who may be found responsible for the use of chemical weapons will be held accountable.  We emphasize the need for the secure and safe storage of all chemical weapons in Syria, pending their destruction under international verification. We also condemn in the strongest possible terms all human rights violations and abuses in Syria, committed by anyone, including indiscriminate attacks on civilians. We call on all sides to respect international humanitarian and human rights laws, noting the particular responsibility of the Syrian authorities in this regard.

(…)