“Assad will run again… America will go along”

“Assad will run again… America will go along.” That's what renowned Lebanese political analyst and journalist Sami Kleib writes today for Beirut’s daily al-Akhbar, which speaks for Iran, Syria and Lebanese Hezbollah.

The article penned by Kleib, who formerly worked for Aljazeera but is now news director of the pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen TV, features simultaneously this morning on Syria’s online daily Champress as well as on the news portal of Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV.

Better still, Kleib is married to former Aljazeera anchorwoman Luna Shibl, who now serves as media advisor to President Bashar al-Assad.

To Kleib’s mind:

It is almost inevitable that Assad will again run for president come mid-2014. He won’t be standing down, or renewing or extending his term. He links his candidacy to the yearning of the people. He is also convinced renewal of his presidential mandate will happen.

American circles handling Syrian affairs are convinced Assad will run and win. It is consequently imperative to look for a credible way out to justify any likely American u-turn in Geneva or elsewhere, but not instantly.

The Americans tried long and hard to convince Russia and Iran to press Assad to leave office at the end of his current mandate next June. They offered keeping the régime and state institutions unchanged and suggested replacing Assad by an Alawite figure. Moscow and Tehran would have nothing of that.

The same happened when Secretary of State John Kerry told international troubleshooter for Syria Lakhdar Brahimi in the presence of Kerry aide Wendy Sherman, “Try pressuring the Russians and Iranians to advise Assad against running.”

Brahimi replied the first time he broached the subject he found Assad “flexible.” The second time Assad refused to discuss the matter saying the Syrian people decide on this. On his third visit to Damascus, Foreign Minister Walid Muallem advised Brahimi not to raise the matter as a precondition for the meeting. Brahimi did as told.

The Americans’ problem is how to save face after repeating for two years that Assad must step down.

All the above was before the world powers reached an agreement with Iran on her nuclear ambitions, prior to the outrage against the Iranian embassy in Beirut and ahead of the agreement between Baghdad and Washington to shore up Iraqi Premier Nouri al-Maliki in his war against Jihadists and DAESH.

Since all issues revolve around the war on terrorism, the matter is bound to top the Geneva-2 agenda.

Provision 2 of Article 87 in the amended Syrian constitution states: “If the term of the President of the Republic finished and no new president was elected, the Existing President of the Republic continues to assume his duties until the new president is elected.”

This is to say the “Game of Nations” over Assad’s future will remain in full play well past June 2014.

Kerry gets potatoes of peace to Syria talks

Aleppo ceasefire, prisoner swaps and Ghouta aid mulled

Kerry presenting Lavrov with the two Idaho potatoes

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry presented Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with two potatoes from Idaho before the beginning of their talks at the U.S. ambassador's residence in Paris.

Kerry said he and Lavrov had spoken to one another several weeks ago and planned to discuss Syria. Then the Secretary of State produced two potatoes from a big cardboard box and gave them to the Russian minister.

The Russian delegation responded later with an ushanka hat, an iconic relic of the Soviet era, complete with a red star, but colored cartoonish pink.

Kerry and Lavrov discussed the possibility of ceasefires in parts of Syria, Kerry said after the talks in Paris.

Lavrov said the two also discussed a possible willingness by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to open aid corridors.

"We talked today about the possibility of trying to encourage a ceasefire. Maybe a localized ceasefire in Aleppo," Kerry told the news conference after the talks with Lavrov, which were joined by UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi a little later.

Lavrov said Damascus had indicated it might provide access for humanitarian aid to besieged areas. According to RT, he specifically cited the Damascus suburb of East Ghouta, where fighting traps 160,000 people.

"We await similar steps by the opposition," Lavrov said.

The United States is pushing for a series of confidence-building measures, including prisoner exchanges, in the Syria war in advance of Geneva-2, a planned peace conference in Switzerland on January 22.

Prisoner exchanges may be a simpler goal to achieve. Armed opposition forces are preparing lists of Syrian army soldiers and officials in their captivity, Kerry said. A similar preparation is underway in Damascus.

Achieving a total ceasefire would probably be unrealistic under the circumstances, but both the U.S. and Russia are suggesting a localized ceasefire such as in Aleppo, which would serve as a test for the readiness of both sides to curb violence.

Syria’s second largest city Aleppo has been a scene of intensive fighting in the past few weeks.

A third important step would be providing humanitarian access to Syrian regions most affected by the violence, particularly the Damascus suburbs of Ghouta. Lavrov is negotiating such a move with Damascus, Kerry said.

Another important issue discussed by the three negotiators deals with Iran’s participation in the conference. According to Brahimi, an invitation to the Swiss town of Montreux, where the gathering is to take place, has been sent to Tehran.

“Iran’s participation or otherwise is not a matter of ideology; it is a matter of common sense,” the envoy said.

Kerry said the U.S. supports Iran’s participation in the conference, but insists that Tehran endorses the peace roadmap agreed at the June 2012 Syria peace conference in Geneva.

“We hope that in the end the UN Secretary General will invite everyone, who has an impact on the real development of the situation,” Lavrov said.