The West’s appeasement of Iran

This is an edited translation of excerpts from the weekly think piece of leading American-Lebanese journalist Raghida Dergham for this morning’s edition of the pan-Arab daily al-Hayat:

The West’s ambiguous attitudes towards the Islamic Republic of Iran raise many questions.

For instance, is the collective objective of the United States, Britain and France to allow Iran to thwart a Syrian Opposition victory in Syria?

Or, is their shared aim to push Iran and Hezbollah deeper into the Syria quagmire?

The West is also out to lunch in the run-up to next month’s presidential election in Iran. It chose to get some shuteye when it was supposed to be exposing the establishment’s increasing dogmatism. That’s what the West did in Iran’s 10^th presidential election in 2009, before the reformist movement was crushed.

Unlike in 2009, when it encouraged Iran’s reformist movement, the West made nothing this week when the Guardian Council, a body of theologians and jurists, disqualified reformist ex-President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani from running and approved only eight conservative candidates to stand for president.

In their on-off nuclear negotiations for a decade, the West continues to give Iran elbowroom to press ahead with its most contentious nuclear work. Here too, the West comes across as appeasing the Mullahs.

As to the regional role to which Tehran lays claim, the West seems content to play a double role. On the one hand, the West appears to give Iran free rein in the Arab countries it covets, chiefly Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

At the same time, Washington, London and Paris give the impression of being pleased to see Sunnis and Shiites crossing swords in Syria’s war of attrition, thus keeping both sides at bay from their cities.

Public acknowledgement of the presence of Iranian forces in Syria leaves the West in a quandary. A UN Security Council resolution (Resolution 1747 of 24 March 2007) bars arms exports by Iran under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

In paragraph 5 of the said resolution, the UN Security Council “Decides that Iran shall not supply, sell or transfer directly or indirectly from its territory or by its nationals or using its flag vessels or aircraft any arms or related materiel…”

Would the West be invoking the breach anytime soon?

The West explicitly warned Hezbollah recently against intervening militarily in Syria. And as a response to the group’s joining the war on the side of Assad’s regime, Europe is hinting it “might” designate Hezbollah’s military wing as a terrorist entity.

The U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted this week to pass a bill that will be highly unpopular in Moscow, let alone Damascus.

The “Syrian Transition Support Act” would provide arms to Syrian rebels in support of a regime change.

The bill heads first to the Senate, then to the House and finally to the president.

If the bill is passed, will President Barack Obama sign it?

So far, his policy has been to prevent a victory in Syria either by the armed opposition, which includes not more than five or 10 percent from Jabhat al-Nusra, or by the Iran-Hezbollah-Russia triumvirate.

As usual, Britain and France continue to warn on Syria, only to backtrack later. Both have been talking for months about arming the opposition, even at the cost of busting the European Union arms embargo, only to put their moves on hold afterward.

Are Britain and France acquiescing to the war of exhaustion and attrition in Syria, to help their intelligence services -- and the West generally – gather invaluable information on Sunni extremists belonging to al-Qaeda, Jabhat al-Nusra and the likes?

By flying to Amman this week for the “Friends of Syria” core group meeting, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry looked more like Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s Geneva-2 salesman.

Whereas Washington was previously calling on Assad to stand down, the Amman closing statement simply said Assad “cannot play a role in the future of Syria.”

Russia wants Iran to be in Geneva-2. And the United States has yet to say no. All Washington said this week in a background briefing on Kerry’s trip to Amman was, “We’ll certainly have to talk to the Russians more, and we’ll have to talk also to the United Nations because they very well will have a big role. So the final attendance list is still under discussion.”

The now-defunct Soviet Union spent decades trying to reach the warm waters of the Mediterranean. Russia reached them via Tartus. Iran is already there via Hezbollah in Lebanon.

All these intertwined elements warrant a rethink. Talk of the Syria war being a quagmire or a Vietnam hemorrhaging Iran and Hezbollah is offset by whispers of a behind-the-scenes grand bargain whereby West and East hand Iran victory in her Vietnam war against Sunni extremists in Syria, plus a say in the regional balance of forces.

The fierce battle for Qusayr will drag out

Computer screen for remote-controlled sniper rifle (top) and a hand portable Bgan terminal (below)

The Lebanese daily al-Akhbar -- which speaks for the “Axis of Resistance” grouping the Syrian regime, Hezbollah and Iran -- concedes today the fierce battle for Qusayr will be long-drawn-out.

The Syrian army, backed by hundreds of Lebanese Hezbollah militiamen, has been trying for nearly a week to regain control of Qusayr, a strategic town in Homs province held by rebels for over a year.

The town is vital for both the Syrian regime and the Lebanese paramilitary group. The city is a strategic link in the Syrian communications chain, connecting the capital Damascus, Syria's Alawite-dominated coastal highlands, and Hezbollah's heartland in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley. The Lebanese border is only 10 kilometers to the city's west, and the Damascus-Aleppo highway lies to its east.

Underlining its importance, the Syrian National Coalition issued an impassioned plea to supporters to send men and weapons to help defend Qusayr, where an estimated 2,000 fighters and as many as 30,000 civilians endured a fourth day of relentless air bombardment and tank shelling by government troops and their Hezbollah allies yesterday.

George Sabra, the acting head of the Syrian National Coalition, also called on the international community to establish a humanitarian corridor to help civilians and wounded trapped inside the town.

Also overnight, the 11-nation core group of the “Friends of Syria” alliance denounced Hezbollah operations in Qusayr and called on Iran and Hezbollah to withdraw fighters immediately from Syrian territory, describing their armed presence in the country as a threat to regional stability. (The Joint Statement of the Participating Countries in the Amman Ministerial Meeting on Syria is published in full below.)

In his news feature for today’s edition of al-Akhbar, journalist Radwan Mortada explains why the battle for Qusayr will be protracted.

Following are edited excerpts from his piece:

Qusayr did not fall.

Everyone inside the town is unsure if better or worse days are ahead.

One side recounts tales of “challenge and steadfastness.”

The other side boasts of “advances on the ground and troops mopping up the last pockets of resistance.”

Most of the opposition’s armed rebels entrenched in Qusayr continue to move freely from one hideout to another.

Power supplies are cut off, but the rebels use power generators and communications equipment to remain in touch with armed groups outside Qusayr, call in reinforcements, relay news to the media, post videos online of the clashes and bombardments.

All the rebels’ communications are via Bgan (Broadband Global Area Network) portable satellites connected to laptops or smartphones.

They also use Inmarsat.

Opposition sources tell al-Akhbar the rebels have set up a Military Command in which all heads of brigades fighting in Qusayr are represented. They say Lt. Col. Mohieddeen al-Zein (aka “Abu Arab”) heads the Command.

His key aides include al-Farouq Brigade’s “Abu Ali” and Jabhat al-Nusra’s “Abul Baraa.”

The latter believes the battle will be drawn out. He says, “War is trickery… We tricked Assad troops and Hezbollah fighters to venture into some alleyways where everything is booby-trapped, including homes, hideouts, shelters, trenches and barricades… We got them there.”

But the rebels also complain of shortages in medical facilities and supplies saying, “The field hospital was totally destroyed. We have to carry the wounded on our shoulders for treatment in homes.”

On the opposite (Assad loyalists’) side, sources familiar with military operations in Qusayr say, “The offensive was hampered by the enormous number of booby traps” and “camouflaged cameras monitoring strategic positions and the main roads in the area.”

The sources also say the rebels deployed sophisticated “remote-controlled sniper rifles” that use computer screens for monitoring, tracking and targeting.

Whereas the sources expect the battle for Qusayr to be won within days,  “hopefully before Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on Saturday,” other information suggests “an unqualified victory will need more time.”

Joint Statement of the Participating Countries in the

Amman Ministerial Meeting on Syria

The Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar and the Foreign Ministers of Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, U.A.E., U.K., USA and Jordan came together in Amman on May 22nd 2013 to deliberate on the developments in Syria and to reemphasize their support to find a political solution to the crisis in Syria. The representatives from the leadership of the Syrian National Coalition of the Revolutionary and Opposition Forces also attended part of the meeting, and briefed the Ministers on the situation inside Syria.

The Ministers reviewed their discussions in the Rome meeting of February 28th 2013, and recalled the joint statement of Istanbul of April 20th 2013 that supports a political solution in Syria on the basis of the Geneva Communiqué of June 30th 2012.

The Ministers supported the participation in the Geneva meeting for the purpose of the full implementation of the outcomes of the first Geneva meeting to end the bloodshed, fulfill the legitimate aspirations of the Syrian people, preserve the territorial integrity of the country, and strengthen the national unity amongst all components of the Syrian national fabric. The Ministers emphasized the central role of the United Nations Security Council in the realization of this effort.

The Ministers condemned in the strongest terms the use of heavy weapons including ballistic missiles against the people, and deplored the ethnic cleansing that the regime is pursuing as seen recently in Banias, and declared that such crimes will not go unpunished.

The Ministers stressed that the political process to reflect positively and tangibly on the daily lives of the Syrian civilian population, including the release of prisoners, the delivery of humanitarian assistance and end the killing of civilians.

The Ministers identified as the corner stone of a political solution the formation of a transitional governing body through mutual consent, within a defined and agreed upon timeframe, to assume full executive authority, including all powers of the Presidency in addition to control over the armed forces and the security and intelligence apparatuses, for an agreed upon and defined timeframe for the transitional period. The Ministers affirmed that the final objective of the transitional period should include the adoption of a new Syrian constitution that guarantees the equal rights of all citizens.

The Ministers underlined that the attainment of the political solution that meets the aspirations of the Syrian people means, as stated in the Abu Dhabi joint statement of the May 13th 2013, that Assad, his regime, and his close associates with blood on their hands cannot play any role in the future of Syria.

The Ministers reiterated their support to the Syrian National Coalition of the Revolutionary and Opposition Forces and welcomed the efforts by the Coalition to expand their base of representation to include all components of Syrian society, and emphasized the central and leading role of the Coalition in the opposition delegation to the anticipated international conference on Syria. Furthermore, the Ministers reiterated the right to self-defense of the Syrian people, and committed to offer additional support to reinforce the role and capacity of the Supreme Military Council (SMC).

The Ministers expressed their strong concern over the increasing presence and growing radicalism on both sides of the conflict and terrorist elements in Syria; a matter that deepens the concerns for the future of Syria, threatens the security of neighboring countries and risks destabilizing the wider region and the world.

The Ministers denounced the intervention of foreign combatants fighting on behalf of the regime, and consider their presence a flagrant intervention on Syrian territory and a serious threat to regional stability. In this context, the Ministers stressed in particular the operations conducted by Hezbollah in Qusayr and elsewhere and called for the immediate withdrawal of Hezbollah, fighters from Iran, and other regime allied foreign fighters from Syrian territory.

The Ministers expressed their deep concern over the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Syria, as well as the threat they pose to the stability and security of neighboring countries hosting Syrian refugees. They underlined the importance of cross border humanitarian operations and called upon the international community to support host countries to address the pressures arising from hosting refugees based on the principles of burden sharing and to prevent any implications for international peace and security.

The Ministers viewed with extreme concern the growing number of reports and strong indications of the use of chemical weapons by the regime in Syria. The Ministers emphasized the importance of enabling the UN to conduct a comprehensive investigation regarding the use of such weapons. The Ministers stressed that there will be severe consequences if these reports are confirmed.

The Ministers also emphasized that until such time as the Geneva meeting produces a transitional government, they will further increase their support for the opposition and take all other steps as necessary.

Finally, the Ministers agreed to strengthen cooperation and coordination among themselves and with international partners to ensure the successful convening of the international conference leading to a political solution to the Syrian crisis.

Marketing of Geneva-2 kicks off in Amman

Kerry and Lavrov, the architects of Geneva-2

John Kerry and the 10 other members of the “Friends of Syria” core group are meeting in Amman today to push for a Geneva-2 conference the U.S. secretary of state consented to with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

The Geneva framework envisages bringing together representatives of Bashar al-Assad and the Syrian opposition to agree a joint “transitional government with full executive powers” to end more than two years of internecine strife.

The “Friends of Syria” sitting with Kerry at the Amman meeting are the foreign ministers of Germany, Italy, France, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, the UAE and Egypt.

Like most Syrians and Syria-watchers, two Arab political analysts still have their misgivings about the proposed Geneva-2, which they sum up in a sentence each.

• “Circumstances have changed, and so has the friendship,” Iyad Abu Shakra writes for Saudi Arabia’s leading daily Asharq Alawsat.
• “Geneva-2 places the Syrian opposition between two fires,” Ms Bahia Mardini suggests in a think piece for Elaph, the first independent online Arab newspaper.

In the view of Abu Shakra, who specialized in Middle Eastern Studies at The University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS):

Does Syria have any friends left?

The question is relevant in the countdown to the meeting in Amman of the 11 members making up the “Friends of Syria” core group.

Above all, what are some of the “Friends of Syria” exactly after? And can all those sitting at the Amman round-table be described as friends?

The Syrian uprising is today looking for friends right and left but hardly finding any who would bring to a close the Syrian regime’s crackdown and its rush to partition Syria by blitzing Homs city and the rural areas of Homs province.

With due respect to the true “friends” who are being pressured by global kingmakers, a majority of partakers in Amman today will hopefully recognize that the Syrian people deserve some measure of truthfulness and a greater measure of courage in the face of those conspiring against them.

Honestly, is there any hope of Assad and his inner circle stepping aside with Lavrov tailoring a Syria solution and towing Kerry along by the hand?

Can any brainy observer imagine Tehran – which has been investing men, money, arms and all sorts of services in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon for three decades – simply turn its back, walk away and bury its regional ambitions?

Frankly, no one will answer the questions positively, save for Mr. Lakhdar Brahimi, and perhaps John Kerry.

According to Ms Mardini:

The Syrian opposition is sitting hesitantly between the two fires of a political solution.

One fire would char her if she accepted to sit with the Assad regime after it killed at least 80,000 Syrians.

The other fire would scorch her internationally if she refused, given that the chances of American intervention are zilch and the Syria crisis has now gone into the international bazaar.

Background briefing

Overnight, a senior State Department official gave reporters a background briefing on Kerry’s trip to Amman.

I have excerpted remarks the official made in the course of the curtain raiser (that you can read in full here):

(The meeting in Amman) is basically to review where we are on Syria, and obviously there’s going to be a discussion both about the situation on the ground in the country. I’m sure there will be a discussion of the refugee situation since the Turkish and Jordanian foreign ministers will be there. There will certainly be a discussion about Geneva, and there’ll be a discussion about what things our countries need to be doing in the days and weeks ahead. So it is part of an ongoing set of discussions. It is not by itself a particularly – it’s not a place where we’re coming to make big decisions because we’re in touch with these countries regularly anyway.

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With respect to Geneva and the opposition’s attendance, I don’t think any of the different opposition elements have yet announced definitively whether or not they will attend. And of course, the opposition, the political opposition, is in the middle of meetings right now in Istanbul to pick a new leadership. So we will work intensely with that new leadership in the run-up to Geneva.

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Let me say a couple of things about the fighting in Qusayr, which is up near Homs. It’s southwest of the city of Homs. It is the most visible effort we have seen of Hezbollah to engage directly in the fighting in Syria as a foreign force. We understand there are also Iranians up there. That is what the Free Syrian Army commanders are telling us. I think this is an important thing to note, the direct implication of foreigners fighting on Syrian soil now for the regime.

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With respect to the Syrian regime’s strategy leading up to Geneva, I would just say that we have long said – and the Secretary has said – that it is important to change Bashar al-Assad’s calculations in order to get to a political settlement and that the balance on the ground – the military balance on the ground is a huge factor in those calculations, and we understand that. And so one of the things we’ll be talking about here in Amman tomorrow is what else needs to be done with respect to the military balance on the ground.

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For us, the important thing is for (Assad regime) to understand the purpose of this new meeting in Geneva is to discuss how to implement fully – and I want to emphasize those words – how to implement fully the Geneva communiqué, which stipulates that there will be a transition governing body established with full executive authority, including over the military and the security apparatus and that will be established by mutual consent.

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The final invite list for the Geneva conference is still being worked on. It’ll be an issue tomorrow, I am sure, on the agenda of the 11 foreign ministers meeting here in Jordan. But also we have to talk to countries that are not here. We’ll certainly have to talk to the Russians more, and we’ll have to talk also to the United Nations because they very well will have a big role. And so that final attendance list is still under discussion.

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The Syrian opposition has been invited to Amman, both Gen. (Salim) Idriss or a representative from him for the Supreme Military Command as well as the political opposition. So they’ve both been invited. I’m not sure exactly yet who is attending.

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Certainly there are (arms) contracts that predate the outbreak of the Syrian revolution that the Russians are delivering equipment under. Of course, that doesn’t mean that they couldn’t suspend deliveries given the extraordinary circumstances in which Syria now finds itself, but legalistically, they are correct; these are old contracts.

Hezbollah suffers a body blow in Qusayr

Funerals in Lebanon for Hezbollah fighters killed in Qusayr, including Fadi al-Jazzar's (top)

Hezbollah -- Iran’s Shiite militia in Lebanon -- seems to have been dealt a body blow in its biggest battle yet in the Syria war.

Since Sunday, at least 40 of its militiamen were killed trying to help Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s army retake the rebel-held town of Qusayr near the Lebanese border.

Beirut’s independent daily al-Nahar today puts at 38 Hezbollah’s death toll in Qusayr.

For weeks, fighting has raged around the town in the central province of Homs that has been under rebel control since early last year.

The intensity of the fighting reflects the importance both sides attach to Qusayr and its environs.

For Syrian army planners, Qusayr lies along a strategic land corridor linking Damascus with the Mediterranean coast, heartland of Assad's Alawite sect.

For the rebels, the overwhelmingly Sunni Qusayr has served as a conduit for shipments of supplies smuggled from Lebanon to opposition fighters inside Syria.

Speaking by satellite from Istanbul, the opposition Free Syrian Army’s Brig. Gen. Abdelhamid Zakariya told Alarabiya TV news channel viewers that reinforcements reached the rebels in Qusayr overnight.

“I assure you,” he said, “Qusayr will not fall” to the Syrian army and its Hezbollah allies.

U.S. President Barack Obama told Lebanese President Michel Suleiman in a phone call on Monday he was concerned about Hezbollah militants fighting in Syria to support Assad.

"President Obama expressed his appreciation to President Suleiman and the Lebanese people for keeping Lebanon's borders open and hosting refugees from Syria, and pledged continued U.S. support to help Lebanon manage this challenge," the White House said in a statement summarizing their phone call.

It said the two leaders agreed, "All parties should respect Lebanon's policy of disassociation from the conflict in Syria and avoid actions that will involve the Lebanese people in the conflict. President Obama stressed his concern about Hezbollah’s active and growing role in Syria, fighting on behalf of the Assad regime, which is counter to the Lebanese government’s policies.”

At the State Department’s press briefing yesterday, Patrick Ventrell also told reporters:

“The United States strongly condemns the Assad regime’s intense air and artillery strikes this weekend on the Syrian town of Qusayr, along the Lebanese border, where more than 90 people were reportedly killed. The Assad regime deliberately provoked sectarian tensions through its assaults, which we saw recently in Sunni massacres in the towns of Bayada and Banias. We reject the regime’s use of sectarian-driver war to divide the Syrian people. The Assad regime and its supporters who continue to commit crimes against the Syrian people should know that the world is watching and they will be identified and held accountable.

“We also condemn Hezbollah’s direct intervention in the assault on Qusayr, where its fighters are playing a significant role in the regime’s offensive. Hezbollah’s occupation of villages along the Lebanese-Syrian border and its support for the regime and pro-Assad militias exacerbate and inflame regional sectarian tensions and perpetuate the regime’s campaign of terror against the Syrian people. We reject Hezbollah’s efforts to escalate violence inside Syria and incite instability in Lebanon. We continue to fully support Lebanon’s stated policy of disassociation from the Syrian crisis, and urge all parties in the region to act with restraint and respect for Lebanon’s stability and security.”

Syria's Mufti Hassoun in Iqlim al Tuffah

Evidence of the high casualty toll suffered by Hezbollah in the battle for Qusayr over the past two days includes:

• Publication on Facebook of the names, hometowns and portraits of 40 Hezbollah men killed in Qusayr in the last 48 hours
• A high number of funeral processions in predominantly Shiite areas of Lebanon, specially the Bekaa Valley, with pictures of dead fighters posted on windshields and mourners waving yellow Hezbollah flags
• Crowds gathering outside hospitals in the Bekaa and in the courtyard of al-Rasoul al-Aazam Hospital near Beirut airport in addition to the hospitals’ appeals for blood to treat the wounded brought back to Lebanon
• The surprise whistle-stop visit of Syria’s Grand Mufti Ahmad Badreddin Hassoun to Lebanon’s Hezbollah-controlled Iqlim al-Tuffah, where he offered condolences to families of Hezbollah fighters killed in Syria
• A commentary and a feature article on the front page of Beirut daily al-Akhbar, which speaks for the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” The commentary justifies Hezbollah’s military intervention in Syria. The feature article quotes relatives and friends hailing the sacrifices of their loved one there.

Al-Akhbar publisher Ibrahim al-Amin writes in part under the title “Hezbollah in Syria”:

Those opposing Hezbollah’s political stance and its fighting alongside the regime in Syria are those precluding Hezbollah from any role in Lebanon. They wish the Party of God would transform into a charity organization. They would be more than happy to throw a celebratory event in its honor if it were to give up its arms. They never stood by Hezbollah at the pinnacle of its resistance to Israel…

Hezbollah is now fighting terrorists in Syria…

Frankly, Hezbollah, its leaders, its cadres, its fighters and its masses never wished to fight in Syria. But it won’t be long before many thank Hezbollah for what it is doing there today.

Also in al-Akhbar, Ms Suha Zarakit writes about “Hezbollah and the duty of Jihadist martyrdom” saying in part:

Funerals for Hezbollah martyrs were never as sorrowful… because the Resistance fighters fell in a battle they never planned to wage.

For two days, many in the Resistance family hardly shut their eyes as they kept clinging to their mobiles and waiting for news of the battle for Qusayr…

What was hushed in the previous month came out in the open yesterday. People kept exchanging photos from the frontline, hurrahs, prayers for the Resistance fighters, and encouragements to donate blood… They recalled the Hezbollah fighters’ heroics in the (South Lebanon security zone) liberation war in 2000 and the victory of 2006 (in the Israel-Lebanon war)…

How can the battle for Qusayr not be just when its objective is to protect the Resistance’s back...?

One of the Hezbollah operatives killed in Qusayr and buried yesterday was Fadi el-Jazzar, a Beirut-born Palestinian who served 14 years in jail in Israel for a border attack in 1991, before being released in a prisoner exchange.

In early 2004, Jazzar was released by Israel, along with 434 other prisoners, including Mustafa Dirani and Abdel Karim Obeid, in exchange for Elhanan Tannenbaum, an Israeli businessman who was kidnapped by Hezbollah and held hostage for three years, and the bodies of three IDF soldiers.

The Middle East is falling apart at the seams

Painting by Syrian artist Wissam Al Jazairy

Ghassan Charbel, editor-in-chief of al-Hayat newspaper, penned this think piece in Arabic for today’s edition

Times are hard for the Middle East. It has to find a recipe for coexistence, drawing in the Muslims, Jews and Christians, which is not easy.

It has to search for a coexistence formula binding the Turks, Persians, Kurds, Arabs and others and a coexistence blueprint joining ethnicities, nationalities, religions and sects. This is not simple either.

Long lulls are deceptive. They feign that old conflicts have been assigned to the history books. This is not true -- any sudden twist is liable to rekindle old feuds streaming with blood.

Nation-states that were configured in the aftermath of World War One either curbed these conflicts or gave them other names. Once these nation-states’ repressive machines crack, the old demons resurface.

We’re clearly on the way to a ghastly, rather than a new, Middle East – one where the coexistence chapter drawing together its various components ends, heralding the reconfiguration of nation-states and maps.

We are unmistakably facing something more cataclysmic than the fall of the Berlin Wall or the breakup of Yugoslavia.

We are facing a Nakba worse than the 1948 Nakba of the Palestinian people, one marking the demise of coexistence.

We are into violent cross-border designs and aspirations tackling maps like an inmate treats his prison walls.

Don’t accuse me of being a prophet of doom. The pointers are everywhere in the print and audiovisual media, supported by rivers of corpses and declarations promising endless wars.

A suicide attacked a Husseiniya (Shiite house of worship) in Kirkuk, and the response was a spectacular offensive against Sunni mosques in or near Baghdad.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki blamed remnants of the “Baath” and “sectarian hatred.” His adversaries accused him of being a “sectarian bigot.”

Protesters in al-Anbar province treat the Iraqi army as a “Shiite militia” or the cover for one.

The Sunnite Iraqi says he won’t accept to be a second-class citizen, which is what the Shiite Iraqi was saying in decades past.

We’ve moved from the Arab-Kurd crisis to a Sunni-Shiite-Arab-Kurd predicament. It’s as if the whole Middle East has turned into the knotty problem of the disputed Iraqi city of Kirkuk.

Both sides in the Syria war are keen to deny its sectarian character. One side paints it as a war on inflowing terrorists and the opposite side depicts it as a revolt against a dictatorship.

So how do we explain the presence of Chechen fighters in Idlib, the arrival of Libyans to support their Sunni brethren or a funeral for a young Iraqi in Basra killed defending the Shiite shrine of Sayyeda Zeinab in Damascus?

Also, how do we explain the funeral for a young Sunni in the North Lebanese port city of Tripoli killed trying to infiltrate into Syria and the funeral for a Hezbollah member felled while on “jihadist duties” there?

Why does the Sunni Lebanese support the Syrian revolution and the Shiite Lebanese hinder it?

Why didn’t Alawites flee before rebels entered their villages or Sunnis take to their heels before government and allied forces stormed their townships?

Do the slogans of “objection” and “resistance” justify the military involvement of Iran and its allies in the Syria war? The counter-meddlers could be asked the same question.

What you hear in Lebanon, which used to be a model of and a proving ground for coexistence, is worrisome and unnerving.

Yesterday, I heard a prominent member of Gen. Michel Aoun’s “Free Patriotic Movement” accuse other Christians of treason. His charge sheet says the other Christians agreed to an electoral law allowing Muslims to have a weighty say in the election of 10 Christian legislators out of the 64 allotted to Christians in parliament.

A retreat to self-made islands won’t solve either Lebanon’s problems or the problem of its minorities. The biggest danger for Lebanon now is the growing number of risk-takers walking on thin ice.

Clearly, we are toughing out the eclipse of coexistence.

Our nation-states, our societies and our armies are breaking up.

The inviolability of international borders has evaporated. We’re in the midst of a regional civil war caused by a stream of cross-border projects. I am afraid we’re on the way to a period awash with statelets, militias, cemeteries and “cleansed regions.”

Assad: I’ll run for a third term in 2014

Assad was interviewed at his palace library room

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has poured cold water on prospects of an international conference for peace in Syria proposed earlier this month by the United States and Russia.

He also told Argentina’s Clarín newspaper in an exclusive interview he would run for a third seven-year term in the June 2014 presidential election.

I excerpted the salient remarks made by Assad from the library of his palace in Damascus to Clarín's reporter Marcelo Cantelmi. Here goes:

ASSAD SPEAKING:

Multiple factors make the Syria crisis intricate and long-drawn-out. The foremost cause is foreign meddling, which we are resisting so as to protect Syria.

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The death of any Syrian is a tragic loss but the death toll figures being spread around are inflated. There is no precise death toll figure to quote, but many of those killed were foreigners who came to Syria to kill Syrians.

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Without defining the term “excessive force,” you can’t determine whether government forces used it. Generally, the state’s response has been commensurate with the level of terrorism used against it. The more sophisticated the terrorists get, the more intense the response of our military and security forces.

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Our political reform measures -- including the endorsement of a new constitution, the lifting of the state of emergency and the initiation of a national dialogue with opposition political parties -- were met by amplification of the terror.

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Terrorism can never be an implement for reforms. What interest does a wanted terrorist from Chechnya or Afghanistan have with the internal political reform process in Syria? There are foreign fighters from different 29 nationalities now engaged in terrorist activities in Syria.

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Have the United States or European countries ever negotiated with terrorists? Dialogue is with legitimate political entities and a conventional opposition, not with terrorist groups.

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We support every effort to stop the violence in Syria and every endeavor that would lead to a political solution. We welcome the Russian-American understanding and look forward to an international parley to help Syrians overcome the crisis. But I don’t think many Western nations genuinely want a Syria solution. Powers backing the terrorists don’t want a solution either – they’ve already shot down the Russian-American agreement by rejecting dialogue with the Syrian state. While we support and welcome the Russian-American initiative, we have to be realistic. After all, it takes two to tango.

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The offshore opposition you mention is not independent. It is funded by foreign countries and lives under the shadow of their respective intelligence agencies. If the offshore opposition groups had a popular homegrown following they would be sitting in Syria. Still, they have officially come out against dialogue. Only last week, they said clearly they don’t want to negotiate with the Syrian state.

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We’re open to dialogue with everyone, except terrorists. There is a universal mix-up between terrorism and a political solution. They think a political conference would lead to a cessation of violence, which is wide of the mark. So long as countries like Qatar, Turkey and others have no interest in stopping violence and in a political solution in Syria, terrorism will continue. What an international conference can do is to stop the inflow of terrorists from Turkey and cash from Qatar and other Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia.

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Israel backs these terrorist gangs in two ways (1) logistical help, such as tending to the wounded terrorists on the Syrian side of the Golan front, and (2) directives on how to mount their attacks and what sites to target. For instance, it directed them to target a radar site belonging to an air defense system against incoming warplanes in case of a Syria-Israel war.

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The West brings up the subject of combatants from Iran and Hezbollah in Syria whenever we broach the subject of foreign fighters. Syria has a population of 23 million and does not need manpower help from any other country. We don’t need anyone from Iran or Hezbollah to help us. Our relations with them are manifest and decades old.

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Whether I remain in office or leave depends on the Syrian people. As a president, it is not my personal decision to stay or leave. You can’t rule without the people’s support. The decision belongs to the ballot box. People will decide on this in the 2014 presidential elections. But for America or the terrorists or some other nations to order the Syrian president to go is unacceptable.

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I don’t know if (U.S. Secretary of State) John Kerry or anyone else received a mandate from the Syrian people to speak on their behalf as to whether someone should stay or go. Syria is an independent state. Any decision about reforms in Syria will come from Syria and neither the U.S. nor any other state can decide what we do. Besides, the country is in crisis and a captain does not abandon a ship facing a storm at sea. In any case, to resign would be to flee and I am not the kind of person to shun responsibility.

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International monitoring of the 2014 presidential elections is not a decision I can make alone. It’s a national decision.  Some people believe it would violate Syria’s national sovereignty. Others simply do not trust the West for this task. And others would want observers from friendly countries, such as Russia or China.

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The West’s statements on the use of chemical weapons change every day – there is proof, there is some proof, there is no proof etc… Chemical weapons are weapons of mass destruction. The West claims we used them in populated centers. When you hear of a nuclear bomb killing 10 or 20 people, can you believe that? Using chemical weapons in urban areas would mean killing thousands or tens of thousands of people in a matter of minutes. Who could hide something like that? Why did the West shrug off Carla del Ponte’s statement saying terrorists used chemicals?

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Any war on Syria won’t be easy. They know this. They know it won’t be a picnic.

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Intervention is a clear probability, especially after we managed to beat back the armed groups in many areas of Syria. Israeli airstrikes were used, for example, to raise the terrorist groups’ morale. We expect an intervention at some point, albeit limited in nature.