U.S.-Russia back-room deal over Syria takes shape

Now that he’s won, after putting Syria on hold throughout his reelection campaign, U.S. President Barack Obama seems set to bungle the Syrian Revolution.

Instead of arming Syrian opposition rebels to topple President Bashar al-Assad, his administration is now hard-selling Russia’s roadmap for a Syrian-led political settlement.

The opening shots in the U.S.-Russian common approach to the Syria crisis came a week before Election Day, when Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the Syrian National Council was dysfunctional.

Within days, the State Department was orchestrating the ongoing hullabaloo in Doha over a Syrian National Initiative (SNI) to replace the SNC (see my Nov. 3 post, U.S. push to overhaul Syrian opposition gains pace).

Almost at the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov flew to Cairo for talks with Arab League chief Nabil Elaraby and Syria troubleshooter Lakhdar Brahimi.

Lavrov told reporters at a post-talks press conference, “We decided what to do in Geneva. And it is incumbent upon us to move forwards on the basis of what was agreed upon in Geneva. And the players outside the region should coordinate and… in one direction. And Russia is doing just that. It is trying to execute what was agreed upon in Geneva.”

A more indicative sign Washington and Moscow have shaken hands on a Syria deal came yesterday from New York.

Warning Syria’s current path of violence will lead the country “to its destruction,” UN Undersecretary-General for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman -- who until last June was U.S. Assistant Secretary of State -- said there was an urgent need to “shift away” from the military logic driving the conflict and to move towards a political process.

“It has to be a Syrian-led process; it can’t be imposed,” Feltman told reporters at UN Headquarters in New York after he briefed a closed meeting of the UN Security Council on the situation in the war-ravaged country.

“It must bring real change and a clean break from the past,” he added.

With that goal in mind, Feltman said, Brahimi was working with “great urgency,” mentioning that Brahimi’s deputy Nasser al-Kidwa was “monitoring” the Syrian opposition restructuring in Doha.

“The situation inside Syria is turning grimmer every day,” he told reporters, adding there was a growing risk the crisis could “explode outward into an already volatile region.”

“We might, in fact, already be seeing signs of this spillover,” Feltman said, referring to Syria-related violence in Turkey and Lebanon, and what he called “activities” in the Golan.

“We don’t think the fighting is directed at undermining the disengagement of forces agreement per se,” Feltman said in response to a question on the situation in Golan. “It is the Syrian-on-Syrian fighting. But, nevertheless, we are quite concerned about what the impact could be if there is not an immediate return to full compliance with that disengagement of forces agreement.”

Feltman flagged how Brahimi saw a June communiqué by the UN-backed Action Group on Syria as still providing an “important building block” for an eventual peace.

The Action Group is made up of the UN and Arab League chiefs; the foreign ministers of the five permanent members of the Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) as well as the Turkish foreign minister; the high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy; and the foreign ministers of Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar, who are members of the Arab League ministerial committee on Syria.

At a meeting in Geneva last June 30, the Group had approved the “Geneva Declaration” -- a set of principles and guidelines for a Syrian-led transition that meets the aspirations of the Syrian people.

Among other proposed measures, the Geneva Declaration called on all parties to immediately recommit to a sustained cessation of armed violence in a bid to end the conflict, in addition to the establishment of a transitional governing body that would exercise full executive powers and would be made up of members of the Assad regime and the opposition and other groups (see full text of the Geneva Declaration in my June 30 post, Syria Action Group leaves open Assad question).

How Syria fire is creeping up on Lebanon

Rifaat Eid

Lebanon is being dragged gradually but surely into the Syria cauldron.

After this week’s round of fighting between Alawite and Sunnite militias in Tripoli, Lebanon’s second largest city bordering Syria, three statements made overnight are symptomatic:

One, the overlord of Lebanon’s Alawites says he has no qualms about inviting the Syrian Army to restore order in Tripoli.

Two, the “March 14” coalition, which is the Syrian regime’s nemesis in Lebanon, says it wants Arab countries and the international community to help protect Lebanon’s northern and eastern borders with Syria.

Three, President Bashar al-Assad tells a Russian broadcaster Lebanon and Jordan have been helping to thwart the infiltration of terrorists and the smuggling of arms because they were aware “chaos” in Syria could spread to them.

Eid

After the Lebanese Army curbed the May 12-14 clashes between Tripoli's two adjacent districts -- the predominantly Sunnite “Bab al-Tebbaneh” and the overwhelmingly Alawite “Jabal Mohsen” – Alawite chieftain Rifaat Eid talked tough at his Bab al-Tebbaneh stronghold.

He told a Wednesday press conference the latest clashes were instigated by the “March 14” coalition and “gifted” to U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman and U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman, who visited Lebanon in early May.

He described the cessation of violence in Tripoli as the “fighter’s rest,” adding: “Jabal Mohsen is paying the price of its political affinities with the resistance of (Hezbollah leader) Hassan Nasrallah, with the steadfastness of President Bashar al-Assad, with the missiles of Iran, with the Russian bear and with China.”

Eid said if the situation deteriorated further “there would be no solution left. Everyone should be aware that sliding further into the unknown would mean no one could pacify Lebanon except through the intervention of an Arab army. And no one would be able to do so except Syria. If you asked me my opinion, I have no problem with (the Syrian army coming in). Better this happened today than tomorrow…”

March 14

Parallel to Eid’s press conference, a statement by the “March 14” general secretariat was reiterating the coalition’s “political support for the Syrian revolution and its humanitarian aid to Syrian refugees.”

The statement blamed the violence in Tripoli on “the Syrian regime’s attempts to export its internal crisis” to neighboring Lebanon, adding: “In view of repeated violations of Lebanon’s sovereignty by the Syrian regime’s army, such as the detonation of the situation in Tripoli and the attacks on the areas of Arida, Wadi Khaled, Ersal, el-Qaa and Jabal el-Sheikh, and in view of the (Lebanese) political authorities and security forces’ ineptitude to protect the northern and eastern borders with Syria, ‘March 14’ requests that Arab countries and the international community be solicited to do so in keeping with UN resolutions 1559, 1680 and 1701.”

Assad

Speaking in an interview broadcast Wednesday on Russian state news channel Rossiya-24, Assad said Russia and China, who repeatedly expressed their support for Syria and backed the country in the UN Security Council, are not supporting him as head of state or his regime, but international stability.

“They [Russia and China] do not support me as president,” he said. “They promote stability in the region and have a very good understanding of Syria’s role and importance [in the Middle East].”

Without them Syria, as well as the region as a whole, “would be swept by chaos,” he said.

Assad said neighboring states like Lebanon and Jordan had been helping to thwart the shipment of weapons and the infiltration of fighters because they were aware the “chaos” could spread to them, and he said Europe and the West should be aware of the same danger in supporting the opposition.

Assad denounced the armed opposition as a gang of “criminals” who he said included religious extremists and members of al-Qaeda.

“It is not an army and it is not free,” he said, referring to the opposition’s Free Syrian Army.

“They get money and weapons from abroad from various countries. It is a group of criminals who have for years broken the law and received convictions. There are also religious extremists there like from al-Qaeda.”

Assad said, “Through the interrogation of terrorists, it became irrefutably clear weapons are being smuggled across the Syrian borders from neighboring countries and funds are being sent from people abroad… We have information about people leading these operations outside Syria and in several countries.

"There are bombs and mines placed in areas with civilians and may target civilians sometimes and they may target security forces or the police or the army… There are also-anti-tank weapons, which is new and serious… So all things point to the fact that there are countries responsible for armament and not individuals who may actually be fronts for these countries.

"Where do the weapons come from? From neighboring countries… (But) we cannot accuse them of being involved in the smuggling as it's difficult to control borders with surrounding countries..."

U.S. and Iran are now sparring over Lebanon

Having prised Iraq away from the United States, the Islamic Republic of Iran is now sparring with Washington over Lebanon.

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Jeffrey Feltman and Iranian Vice-President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi are this week’s shadowboxing stars at the Beirut arena.

“The American-Iranian race for Lebanon caused a backlog of appointments for the two countries’ representatives with senior Lebanese officials,” notes the pan-Arab and Saudi-owned daily al-Hayat today.

It says Feltman and Rahimi’s exclusive meetings on the side with their respective friends and allies are outer upshots of Lebanon’s political divide.

Both men met, or are about to meet, with the Lebanese president, speaker and prime minister. But their side meetings with friends and allies were much more indicative.

Feltman conferred separately with Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader Walid Junblatt and his senior aides, Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and a number of March 14 opposition parliamentarians led by Boutros Harb. All are strong critics of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria.

Rahimi -- who is heading a delegation of 15 cabinet ministers, deputy ministers and ministry directors – elected instead to lay wreaths on the graves of one-time Hezbollah spiritual mentor Sayed Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah and Imad Mughniyah, Hezbollah’s topmost military commander who was assassinated in Damascus four years ago.

A statement by the U.S. embassy in Beirut said Wednesday Feltman expressed Washington’s “steadfast support for pluralistic and democratic governments in the region that protect the rights of all citizens, including ethnic and religious minorities.”

The embassy said Feltman “met with senior officials to discuss the political, economic, and security situation in Lebanon, developments in Syria, and other regional issues.”

But Beirut’s daily an-Nahar today quotes several politicians as saying Feltman is reminding them of Lebanon’s international obligations to uphold economic sanctions clamped on Syria and Iran and to extend humanitarian assistance to Syrian refugees.

Rahimi, on the other hand, is reportedly urging Beirut to implement earlier agreements signed by the countries within three months. Ministerial sources told The Daily Star Lebanon does not feel obligated to adhere to any implementation timeframe for the accords. There are 16 of them covering the health, social affairs, energy, industry, agriculture, justice, and economy sectors.

In his daily column for an-Nahar, Lebanese political analyst Rajeh el-Khoury says, “The hive of political activity in Beirut yesterday took us six years back to 2006, when (former U.S. secretary of state) Condoleezza Rice announced the birth of The New Middle East, triggering a response from Iran Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that the U.S. will face defeat in Lebanon.

“Much changed in Lebanon and the region since, but Lebanon remains a boxing ring…”

According to Khoury, three subject matters concern Washington at this stage:

1. To keep Lebanon safe and out of the way of any security breakdown in the South (bordering Israel) or North (bordering Syria). The breakdown could come in the wake of the Syrian regime’s undoing. Or, it could be instigated by Syria’s allies to export the Syrian crisis to neighboring countries.
2. To see Lebanon apply banking sector sanctions against Iran and Syria.
3. To have Lebanon fulfill its legal obligations by consenting and facilitating humanitarian assistance to Syrian refugees.

Likewise, says Khoury, three Lebanon subject matters are of interest to Iran:

1.  To ensure its Lebanese allies remain in a position to channel all manner of help to its Syrian partner. That’s because the partner’s exit would dissipate 30 years of Iranian efforts to reach the shores of the Mediterranean and deal a strategic blow to Iran’s regional offshoots and influence.
2. To bolster and expand ties with the Lebanese state, now that Hezbollah is its overseer.
3. To help Lebanese allies win the 2013 general elections so Lebanon remains in Tehran’s camp or become its consolation prize in case it loses Syria.

“The perennial question,” Khoury says, is “how long will Lebanon remain a boxing ring for outsiders?”

Hassan Haidar, writing for al-Hayat, agrees that while Iran is doing everything in its power to help the Syrian regime stay afloat “it is also bracing for the post-Assad stage” and pondering damage-limitations steps in case Assad goes under.

“Rahimi’s visit to Beirut with a sizeable delegation is to try and entrap Lebanon in a web that already includes Nouri el-Malilki’s Iraq.” This probably explains why Tehran “mistakenly” sent to Beirut an accord signed with Iraq last month as a draft to be signed between Iran and Lebanon.

Haidar believes the Islamic Republic is trying to entice Lebanon by undertaking to build water dams, roads, power plants, sewers and slaughterhouses and by promising to boost bilateral trade and set up specialized bilateral education committees that would be tasked to update the two countries geography and history textbooks…

If the Arab countries, especially in the Gulf, are deeply worried about events in Syria, Haidar writes, they are urged to also fret about the situation in Lebanon. “Standing up to Iran’s expansionism in Yemen, the UAE, Bahrain, Syria and Lebanon should be done in unison.”