“Syria: Why the hate for Homs?”

"Safe corridor along the coastline from Homs to Damascus & Lebanon's Bekaa"

Why the hate for Homs?

An anonymous guest posed the question last February on an Internet board, saying:

“I've been following news of the uprising in Syria, and one thing that strikes me about it is that the Syrian government's crackdown in Homs seems to be approaching genocidal levels -- it looks like they're trying to wipe the city off the map. Why? Is there an ethnic or religious minority that's concentrated in that city, and the Assad regime is using the uprising as an excuse to do some ‘cleansing’?

“My first thought was that maybe Homs is a Kurdish city, but a quick check of Wikipedia shows that Homs is near Lebanon, which I'm pretty sure is the wrong part of the country for it to have many Kurds. The Wiki page about Homs doesn't give me any clues as to why this particular city should be targeted so aggressively. Can anyone explain what's going on over there?”

The explanation comes today from Lebanese political analyst Walid Choucair, writing for the Saudi-owned pan-Arab daily al-Hayat under the title “A safe corridor for the regime.”

In his opinion:

“The Syrian regime will neither change its conduct nor amend its plan.

“The regime has had, since the onset of the Syrian crisis, two objectives – one maximal and another minimal.

Walid Choucair

“The maximal goal is to smother the uprising by force, irrespective of the cost. This is proving to be an increasingly unattainable goal due to the extraordinary resilience of part of the Syrian people and their resolve to bring down the regime in spite of its vicious reprisals.

“The minimal objective is to cleanse certain areas, even at the expense of letting the rebels gain a foothold elsewhere. The focus of this cleansing campaign is Homs -- (Syria’s third-largest city and home to about 1.5 million people) that was known as ‘Sun City’ in ancient times -- and its surrounding villages. The intent is to create a safe corridor for the regime and its backers through Homs between the Syrian coastline and Damascus on one hand and the Lebanese borders on the edges of Lebanon’s northern Bekaa, on the other. 

“The vicious drive by the regime and its backers to fulfill this minimal objective promotes a demographic cleansing of this specific district by way of massacres (Baba Amr and Houla, for example), executions, and the forced displacement to date of between 800,000 and 900,000 of its residents to other parts of Syria or out of the country.

“The regime has no qualms about razing buildings, homes and entire neighborhoods and wiping them off the map as it is doing in Homs and its surroundings…” 

Six telling messages from Baba Amr walkabout

President Assad in Baba Amr

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad yesterday toured the devastated rebel stronghold of Baba Amr in the restive city of Homs that his forces had overrun last month after 26 days of heavy bombardment and gunfire.

Hundreds of civilians and several foreign journalists – including Gilles Jacquier, Marie Colvin, Rémi Ochlik,  Rami al-Sayed, Anas al-Tarsha, Paul Conroy and Edith Bouvier – were killed or maimed in Baba Amr and other parts of Homs before the army reclaimed the rebel stronghold.

In his daily column for the Beirut daily an-Nahar, political analyst Rajeh el-Khoury today says Assad’s walkabout in the streets of the ravaged district was meant to convey a total of six messages:

1.    One is to Thursday’s Arab summit meeting in Baghdad. The message is that planned reference in the summit’s closing communiqué to the Arab initiative and its endorsement by the UN Security Council is now outdated. “The regime will reestablish its authority and eradicate ‘terror’ before it gets to address political reform.”

2.    A second to next Sunday’s “Friends of Syria” conference in Turkey, which persists in pushing for Syrian opposition unity. The message reads: facts on the ground disprove Barack Obama’s talk at one time of Assad’s days in office being numbered. “It’s rather the Syrian opposition’s days that are numbered.”

3.     A third to Turkey, which was reported lately to be seriously thinking of carving up a buffer zone in Syrian territory to accommodate the growing number of refugees. The message is: the move is needless. “Baba Amr was the opening shot in the military campaign, not the last.”

4.    A fourth to Kofi Annan, saying: talk of cessation of violence in the presence of “pockets of armed terrorists” is pointless and a national dialogue will lead nowhere before the Syrian army regains control of every inch of Syrian territory. “If this takes turning the whole of Syria into a Baba Amr, so be it.”

5.    A fifth message is to the international community, which is hiding behind the back of Annan’s “sluggish and tourism” mission. “It took Syria two weeks to ponder his six points and draft its six answers, which now raise six new questions.”

6.    The sixth and last aim of the Baba Amr walkabout was simply meant “to pat the army on the back for having fought its people for a year…”

Assad wins first round technical knockout

(Photo from foreignpolicy.com)

This is the major part of a remarkably candid opinion of diplomatic endeavors to solve the Syria crisis. It appears in Arabic in today’s edition of the leading Saudi daily Asharq Alawsat. The author is Abdul Rahman al-Rashed, managing director of Alarabiya TV:

I am not happy to acknowledge, but truth is Assad’s regime foiled all Arab and international moves against it and turned the tables on its adversaries in three months. So much so that all sides’ demands dwindled to the mere brokering of a process of reconciliation, hopefully acceptable to President Bashar al-Assad.

He succeeded in fragmenting international positions – a scenario he used after his assassination of Lebanon’s late Prime Minister Rafic Hariri in 2005. He also succeeded in making foreign countries – including his stalwart opponents such as Europe and the United States -- believe if they brought him down they would get Ayman al-Zawahiri instead and empower extremists to rule a multi-sectarian country.

The defeat became public yesterday, when Arab efforts suffered a setback. Proof is Arab countries openly supportive of the Syrian people caved in to the call for a conciliatory solution. The Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saudi al-Faisal, the two hawks in the diplomatic campaign against Damascus, accepted the decision to defer the Arab League solution to the Security Council. This is in spite of the loopholes the Arab League had incorporated in the solution to bail out the regime – such as negotiating reconciliation.

Of course, some would make a point of yesterday’s Arab statement deeming the Baba Amr massacre committed by Syrian military and security forces as a crime against humanity. But that’s a moral declaration, no more.

Whereas Assad’s reign was precarious six months ago and the international community was ready to draft a resolution mandating intervention and burial of his regime, Assad today is in a stronger position on the Arab and international stages. The drubbing (of Assad’s opponents) could be blamed on failure to unify the Syrian opposition groups and on the Damascus government changing its diplomatic strategy and going on the offensive.

Anyway, this is one round of many. I don’t know how Assad can escape the bloodbath he caused in the country… His diplomatic success on the external front does not mirror his routs on the home front. All he’s done so far is inflate the Syrian people’s hatred of his regime…

Arabs, Russia shake hands on Syria framework

Qatar's Sheikh Hamad announcing the accord with Lavrov (Photo from Aljazeera)

The Arab League announced in Cairo late Saturday it agreed with visiting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the following five-point regulatory framework for solving the Syria crisis:

• Cessation of violence by all sides
• An impartial supervisory mechanism
• No meddling by foreign parties (in Syrian affairs)
• Unhindered access of humanitarian aid to all Syrians
• Strong support for Kofi Annan’s mission to launch a political dialogue between Damascus and the Syrian opposition groups in keeping with the provisions approved by the UN secretary-general and the Arab league

In light of the above framework agreed with Lavrov, the Arab League Council of Foreign Ministers approved a new resolution,

1. Calling upon the Syrian government to cease all forms of violence and killings, protect civilians and acquiesce to peaceful demonstrations
2. Calling upon the Syrian government to release all detainees forthwith and to withdraw the army back to barracks without delay
3. Condemning the serious violations of the Syrian civilians’ human rights and deeming the Baba Amr massacre perpetrated by Syrian military and security forces a crime likely to fall under the category of Crimes against Humanity
4. Demanding immediate and unfettered access for Arab and international medical relief and humanitarian aid organizations
5. Upholding the Arab League roadmap for peace in Syria
6. Reiterating the League’s previous call for unrestricted Arab and international media access to Syria
7. Welcoming Kofi Annan’s troubleshooting mission
8. Demanding full implementation by Syria of Arab League Resolutions 7444 and 7446 (enumerating the specific and sequential steps for solving the Syria crisis)
9. Inviting all hues of the Syrian opposition to close ranks and perspectives in anticipation of the dialogue (with Damascus)
10. Welcoming the decisions of last month’s Friends of Syria conference in Tunis, which meets again in Turkey later this month
11. Urging the UN Security Council to pass a unanimous resolution based on the Arab League initiative for peace in Syria.

Syria recovers bodies of Colvin and Ochlik

State-run Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) says the Syrian Army has today disinterred the bodies of two foreign journalists -- Marie Colvin of the United States and Javier Espinosa of Spain -- and French photographer Remi Ochlik after storming the Baba Amr district of Homs on Thursday.

Colvin and Ochlik were killed in the army’s mortar attacks on the neighborhood last week. But Espinosa is alive and tweeting (presumably from Beirut), “SANA mistake about my death can be based in my computer. I left everything on the spot when I had to run for my life.”

SANA said “competent authorities at Baba Amr” exhumed the bodies “following humanitarian-motivated strenuous efforts of search and follow up” after “foreign-backed armed terrorists” were flushed out of the area.

A foreign ministry source quoted by SANA said the bodies are to be transferred to a Damascus hospital for “DNA analysis, to be matched with DNA received from the victims respective countries, before being handed over to the embassies of Poland (representing U.S. interests in Syria), France and Spain the presence of Syrian Red Crescent and International Red Cross representatives.

The source offered “Syria’s condolences to the families of the three journalists,” hoping “foreigners would avoid entering the country illegally” and going to terrorist-controlled areas.

In its first statement on Syria in seven months, the UN Security Council yesterday deplored the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation in Syria and called on the government to grant UN humanitarian chief Valerie Amos "immediate and unhindered access.

Syria’s Champress today quotes a Syrian foreign ministry spokesman as saying, “We were surprised by Valerie Amos’ arrival in the region and her request to travel to Syria on a date that did not suit us. We are willing to consult with her on a mutually convenient date for her visit to Damascus.”

The Security Council press statement required agreement of all 15 Council members, including Russia and China, who vetoed two previous Syria resolutions.

Council President Mark Lyall Grant said, "The power of the statement is that it has all 15 members of the Security Council supporting it."

Full text of the press statement:

The members of the Security Council express their deep disappointment that the Syrian Government did not grant Ms. Valerie Amos, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, authorization to visit Syria in a timely manner, despite repeated requests and intense diplomatic contacts aimed at securing Syrian approval.  The members of the Security Council call upon the Syrian authorities to grant the coordinator immediate and unhindered access.

The members of the Security Council deplore the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation, in particular the growing number of affected civilians, the lack of safe access to adequate medical services, and food shortages, particularly in areas affected by fighting and violence such as Homs, Hama, Deraa and Idlib. 

The members of the Security Council call upon the Syrian authorities to allow immediate, full and unimpeded access of humanitarian personnel to all populations in need of assistance, in accordance with international law and guiding principles of humanitarian assistance.  They call upon all parties in Syria, in particular the Syrian authorities, to cooperate fully with the United Nations and relevant humanitarian organizations to facilitate the provision of humanitarian assistance and allow evacuation of the wounded from affected areas.

“Syrian Army to blitz Idlib after Baba Amr fall”

An official Syrian communiqué will announce “in the next few hours” the Syrian Army’s full takeover of the rebel-held district of Baba Amr in the restive central city of Homs.

This is according to the Beirut daily al-Akhbar, which is close to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

A report titled “Crucial Hours” on the paper’s front page states: “Damascus sources confirmed to al-Akhbar the Syrian Army has gained control of most parts of Baba Amr neighborhood and broke into its main streets after a 25-day blockade. The sources said the army was overnight flushing the remaining rebels out of hiding while guarding against mines and booby traps. They (the sources) expect the authorities to issue a communiqué in the next few hours announcing the area is now safe.”

The global campaign organization Avaaz announced Tuesday that “a network of Syrian activists” coordinated by the group “helped the international journalist Paul Conroy escape into Lebanon. He had been injured and trapped in Baba Amr for six days under continuous Syrian government shelling. The three other journalists Javier Espinosa, Edith Bouvier and William Daniels remain unaccounted for.

“Avaaz responded to requests from the journalists, their families and colleagues to attempt to evacuate them and worked with over 35 heroic Syrian activists each night who volunteered to help in the rescue.  

“The activists have offered to support in the evacuation every night since Remi Ochlik and Marie Colvin were killed by Syrian government shellfire last Wednesday, during which time they rescued 40 seriously wounded people from the same place and brought in medical supplies. Tragically this operation led to a number of fatalities as the Syrian Army targeted those escaping, during their bombardment of the city on Sunday evening. 13 activists were killed in the operation. Syrian targeted shelling killed three activists as they tried to assist the journalists through Baba Amr.  

“While Paul Conroy successfully escaped the city, ten activists died bringing relief supplies into Baba Amr...”

IDLIB NEXT

The Syrian Army’s next target after Baba Amr will be Idlib, according to a pro-Assad figure talking exclusively to Lebanese Hezbollah’s al-Manar news website.

Dr. Muhammad Darar Jamo, identified as “head of the political division and international relations of the International Organization for Arab Immigrants,” tells al-Manar in remarks published this morning: “The Syrian army is set to launch, within the coming 10 days, a major offensive in the north, starting in Idlib and extending to the borders with Turkey.”

Jamo said, “Calm on the Syrian-Turkish border is the kind of calm preceding a storm… specially that armed gangs consider Idlib a safe haven and an area of influence that is out of bounds for state authorities.”

In Turkey, meantime, activist Taner Kiliç, chair of the Executive Board of the Association of Solidarity with Refugees, explains in an article for Today’s Zaman how “Syrian asylum seekers have been sold out” by Ankara.

In the U.S. last week, Republican Senator John McCain called for arming Syrian insurgents against Assad regime repression.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton disagreed with McCain’s plea during an interview Sunday with CBS News.



“We really don’t know who it is that would be armed,” Clinton said during a visit to Morocco. “Are we supporting al-Qaeda in Syria?” she said. “Hamas is now supporting the opposition. Are we supporting Hamas in Syria?”

All these news tidbits justify the title of an exceptional essay I read last night, "The Syrian Uprising of 2011; Why the Assad Regime is Likely to Survive to 2013."

The author is Dr. Joshua Landis, a highly respected Syria expert and associate professor and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma. He wrote the piece for the journal of the Middle East Policy Council.

You can read it here.