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| Exit the Scud, enter the Tochka |
Signs have been multiplying lately that Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad is running out of time.
Here are this week’s pointers:
One
Saudi Arabia displaced Syria as kingmaker in Lebanon (see
my previous post).
Stressing this today in her
daily column for Beirut’s leading independent daily al-Nahar is well-known political analyst Rosanna Boumounsef.
She believes Saudi Arabia’s comeback to Lebanon following
the resignation of Prime Minister Najib Mikati has a regional dimension epitomizing
the kingdom’s drive to isolate Assad.
The drive kicked off at the Doha summit. There, the Syrian
Opposition Coalition was asked to fill Assad’s vacant seat, and Arab League
member-states won the individual right to arm the rebels. The latter decision is
liable to boost the rebels’ firepower as they close in on Damascus.
The Assad regime can’t draw breath from Lebanon and
Iraq as before.
For instance, Damascus is no more the undisputed
overlord of internal Lebanese politics. It still commands the blind allegiance
of some Lebanese political movements and organizations, but not necessarily
Hezbollah’s. That’s due to regional and strictly Lebanese reasons.
Because she is being seriously tested internally and
over her nuclear ambitions and risks losing face in Syria, Iran – read Hezbollah
– might have simply chosen to duck in Lebanon.
In Iraq, Iran’s enforcer Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki
has his back to the wall.
The sum total of this: the balance of power in the
region is tilting against the Damascus government.
Two
Opposition forces are tightening their grip on a
belt of communities to the northeast and south of Damascus, lobbing mortars
into districts in the center of the capital, which they hope to storm within
eight to 12 weeks.
Rebel shells have hit landmarks in central
Damascus, such as the Sheraton Hotel and the neighborhood of Abu Rummana, where
many diplomats are based.
State-run SANA news
agency says several mortar rounds hit areas near the Tishreen football stadium
on Saturday. The stadium is in the capital's central Barakmeh district.
To the east, the rebels now appear to control
Eastern Ghouta, which commands eastern access to the city, and are firing on Damascus
airport.
Three
“A new exodus from Syria
is under way as fighting edges closer to the heart of Damascus with those who
swore they would never flee selling their belongings to escape a battle now
raging on their doorsteps.
“Many Syrians in the
capital had insisted the uprising-turned-civil war would not reach the city
center. Others said they would stay, no matter the consequences.
“But fear has begun to
grip even the most resolute residents.
“For many the tipping
point was the stream of mortar bombs and rockets” shaking Damascus (read more of Erika Solomon’s report for the
Scotsman, “Syrians
leaving Damascus…”).
Four
For the first time in more than two years of bloodletting across the
country, the Syrian army this week called on Damascenes “not to panic.”
The Damascus daily al-Watan
Wednesday quoted an official military spokesman as saying, “Damascus will
remain secure and all Syrian army formations will be fully prepared to defend
it.
“The fate of whoever threatens its sanctity is inevitable death.
“The army will not allow any terrorist to desecrate the soil of Damascus. We’ve repeatedly warned the terrorist
gangs by all means possible that getting near Damascus means their and their
leaders’ inescapable death.
“All infiltration attempts to date ended with the death or flight of the
terrorists.
“Damascus is safe and will remain so. There is no reason whatsoever to
panic. Guardians of the nation are (well-) positioned and have the necessary
means, know-how and courage to defeat terror and terrorists.”
Five
While the Syrian military was telling Damascenes to remain calm, cool
and collected, Assad himself was scaremongering.
He told Turkish TV channel Ulusal Kanal, “If the unrest in Syria leads to
the partitioning of the country, or if the terrorist forces take control … the
situation will inevitably spill over into neighboring countries and create a
domino effect throughout the Middle East and beyond."
Turmoil would spread
"east, west, north and south. This will lead to a state of instability for
years and maybe decades to come," he said in the interview, posted by the
Syrian presidency on the Internet.
Six
While continuing to rain cluster and gas bombs, barrel bombs and Scud
missiles on rebel-held areas, the Syrian army this week twice used a Russian
short-range tactical ballistic missile called “Tochka” against
opposition forces.
The opposition’s Local Coordination Committees said a Tochka missile Saturday
targeted the Damascus suburb of Barza.
Another was used two days earlier against rebel positions in the
capital’s Yarmouk camp for Palestinian refugees.
The Tochka missile is erected
vertically on a vehicle prior to launch for precise strikes on enemy tactical
targets. The fragmentation warhead can be replaced with a nuclear, biological
or chemical warhead.
Russia used the Tochka missiles in the Chechen Wars.
In April, about 14
Tochka missiles were fired into Barza on the northeastern edge of Damascus.
