 |
Authoritative political analyst Sarkis Naoum writes
daily for Beirut’s newspaper an-Nahar.
He only puts his daily comments on hold once or twice
a year, when he travels to the United States for brainstorming sessions on
topical Middle East issues with past or present Administration officials and
think-tank heavyweights.
Once back in Beirut, his columns serialize his
stateside findings the span of two or three weeks.
After his piece last week (“Syria
is fragmenting, says American facilitator”), here is his write-up today
about Russia’s
big appetite, big mouth and rotten teeth:
****
Sarkis
Naoum: The high-ranking U.S. official – who is an old hand in Middle East
affairs now handling files partly linked to Syria, Israel and Lebanon – is
telling me why Russian leaders resumed the Cold War with America.
They [Russians] tell us America is arming the Muslim
Brotherhood and the Syrian opposition. This is not true. They told us this
lately in the course of our visit to Moscow.
We responded: If you sincerely believe what you say,
we are prepared to elaborate and convince you it is false. But if you are,
knowingly and deliberately, bringing up the arming issue with us for propaganda
purposes while knowing it is unfounded, we shall listen to you respectfully and
return home.
There are many reasons prompting Russia to support
Syria and Bashar al-Assad. Among them is (Vladimir) Putin’s bid for the
presidency. But, believe me, the day will come when Putin will haggle with
Assad.
Assad doesn’t grasp this. Russia as a state is dying.
Alcoholism in
Russia is a big problem. So is the fact that the death rate exceeds the birth
rate. [Russia’s] economic boom is fuelled by the oil boom and by the high
level of energy prices.
Russia is rich in oil but does not have a strong
economy. That’s why its economic growth is unsteady.
In any case, we need to discuss with the Russians ways
of convincing Assad to leave office and spend the rest of his life in Russia or
in any other state willing to offer him sanctuary. As far as I know, four or
five states have already made him the offer.
So far, he has adamantly refused. He insists on
staying in the country despite everything. Like his friends in Lebanon, he
believes it won’t take him long to finish off the rebels through violence,
repression and ‘cleansing.’
Discussions are ongoing in Washington about going back
to the UN Security Council… It’s important we get the Russians on board with
us. That will send a strong message to Assad.
Will the Russians go along with us? Will they
acquiesce? I don’t know. I know they can’t keep supporting Assad unless of
course civil war in Syria becomes a fait accompli. In that case, civil war will
be drawn-out – perhaps for years.
Nonetheless, we have the means to pressure Russia,
and we will use them.
Sarkis Naoum:
You did well at the Security Council when Russia and China vetoed the UN draft
resolution on Syria. You were able to get India, Brazil and South Africa to
join you in voting in favor. Will you be trying to keep those nations on your
side? Your relations with China differ from those with Russia. Unlike Russia,
China does not seem directly concerned with Syria…
What you just said is correct. We try our best. Mussolini
used to say ages ago: “Big appetite, big mouth and rotten teeth.” That’s Russia
today.
Sarkis Naoum: What
about Turkey? It talked tough in the early stages of the Syrian crisis, making
Syrians and Arabs believe it would do its utmost against Assad to protect
Syrians and the rebels. It later backpedaled and seemed hesitant, which upset both
Syrians and Arabs. What is Turkey really after?
Despite its muscle and solid economic growth, Turkey
too could be parroting Mussolini: “Big appetite, big mouth and rotten teeth.”
Turkey concluded clearly last August that Assad and
his regime should go. This came after Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s
Damascus visit.
Assad listens, concurs but doesn’t implement, and sometime dismisses.
Davutoglu is an excellent theoretician but he is not adequately
pragmatic. I met with him on one of my assignments. We broached the subject of
the Freedom Flotilla.
I asked him about his government’s support for the flotilla and the likely
negative fallouts on Turkey. He answered me: “We are a free nation; people are
free to do as they wish, but they won’t involve the government.” Israel
attacked the flotilla, people were killed and others injured and the Turkish
government got involved and remains so until this day.
There is some oversimplification, or maybe inexperience, in this
day’s Turkey.
Turkey is strong. We don’t doubt that. But it faces many
problems in its relations with the Army…
