Syrian army to storm Aleppo in next to no time

M. Alani telling anchor Maysoon Azzam: Damascus wants to gain military ground pre-Geneva 2

Sen. John McCain with the FSA's Gen. Salim Idriss (center) and rebel commanders (above)

As fierce fighting rages around the Syrian capital Damascus and the strategic border town of Qusayr, Syrian troops backed by Lebanese Hezbollah fighters are preparing to storm Aleppo in next to no time.

Aleppo, Syria's largest city of three million and a former commercial center, is now split between rebel and government control.

“The liberation battle is knocking at Aleppo’s door,” Radwan Mortada writes today on the front-page of al-Akhbar, Iran, Hezbollah and the Syrian regime’s daily mouthpiece in Beirut. His news article appears verbatim on Hezbollah’s own al-Manar news portal.

Mortada, who five days ago explained why the battle for Qusayr would be long-drawn-out, reveals today:

The Syrian army won’t wait to settle the battle for Qusayr before initiating the battle for Aleppo.

Security sources tell al-Akhbar the Syrian army is already massing troops in the vicinity of Aleppo and preparing to storm it and free it from opposition fighters who seized it in late July 2012.

The sources talk of a strategy to splinter the key Syrian governorates – thus cutting off supply routes to rebels entrenched inside – before blitzing them.

The sources say the battle for Aleppo is about to happen, allowing regime forces to regain control of Syria’s two most important governorates:

1. The Homs governorate, which until recently was known as the “cradle of the Syrian revolution” and is now teetering to the sound of the battle for Qusayr, “which sooner or later will be settled in the regime’s favor”
2. The governorate of Rif Dimashq, where clusters of rebels are holding out in Darayya, and in places like Jobar, Barza and Dummar

Interviewed on Alarabiya TV news channel overnight, Dr. Mustafa Alani, senior advisor and director of the National Security and Terrorism Studies Department at the Gulf Research Center In Dubai, made no mention of an impending battle for Aleppo.

But he significantly told Alarabiya anchor Maysoon Azzam:

After eight days of fierce fighting, Hezbollah was only able to control tiny parts of Qusayr. I think Hezbollah forces are too scattered.

The regime does not want to join the Geneva-2 negotiations in June with its capital Damascus under siege.

Large chunks of Rif Dimashq remain in rebel hands and the regime is striving for a decisive military victory in the run-up to Geneva-2.

I don’t think the regime can do it, but it can make military advances ahead of the negotiations.

If its forces can totally dislodge the Free Syrian Army and other rebel groups from the Damascus suburbs and Rif Dimashq, the regime would gain the upper hand in Geneva.

But prospects for Geneva -2 being held anytime soon dimmed today when Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov told Interfax, “There remains a gap between the positions of Russia and the United States regarding some issues and aspects of this major international crisis.

“And we, for our part, cannot agree to hold such an event [the international conference on Syria] amid a situation where partners and possible participants in such a conference seek to impose solutions on the Syrian people from the outside, as well as predetermine the course of a transitional process, the parameters of which have not been determined yet.”

He also said, “No, it [Geneva-2] will not be held” in the absence of an authoritative delegation representing the Syrian opposition.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was not entirely downcast on Geneva-2 yesterday, telling reporters after his talks with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, “It's not an easy task. It's a very tall order. But I hope that when the United States and the Russian Federation take this kind of initiative, the chances for success are there."

As the two met in Paris, one of the strongest advocates of U.S. military aid for the Syrian opposition, Senator John McCain, made a surprise visit to Syria for discussions with rebel leaders.

McCain, the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, entered Syria through Turkey and was on the ground there for several hours.

He travelled with the Syrian Emergency Task Force and met General Salim Idriss, chief of staff of the Free Syrian Army, as well as 18 other rebel commanders, the BBC has learned.

Gen. Idriss called for arming the FSA to continue its fight, as well as a no-fly zone and airstrikes on government targets and on the forces of Hezbollah.

According to Mouaz Moustafa with the Washington-based Syrian Emergency Task Force that was involved in planning the trip, McCain spent about an hour meeting with FSA commanders from various parts of the country, including Aleppo, Homs, and Idlib.

Syrian army secures Damascus with “four walls”

Who will fire the opening shot in the Battle for Damascus?

Lebanese journalist Nasser Sharara, who usually plays a go-between role for the Syrian regime and its al-Akhbar daily mouthpiece in Beirut, says this has been the $64,000 question in Syria since early March.

Regime and opposition plans for the Battle of Damascus were an open secret seven weeks back.

But the “Syrian army has now fortified Damascus with four walls,” Sharara writes today in a researched (or planted?) news analysis for al-Akhbar, which Hezbollah’s news portal al-Manar reproduces verbatim.

Sharara says in part:

In early March, the opposition could only gain access to the capital’s administrative center by having rebels in Jobar, a suburb on the outskirts of Damascus, storm al-Abbasiyeen Square.

If regime forces wished to launch a preemptive battle for Damascus at the time, their first step would have been to blitz Jobar in the east, which is 700 meters from al-Abbasiyeen.

Jobar “feeds” from Douma and Harasta in the east and from Darayya, in the Western Ghouta.

Darayya is a logistical supply line, through the groves of Kfar Sousa, to key rebel strongholds south of the capital.

In the past three weeks, however, the opposition tried to improvise an unforeseen strategy to break the military deadlock.

It mobilized “sleeping cells” of rebels in Barza and Ruknuddin (where most residents are either Palestinians or Kurds) to infiltrate the outer reaches of Mount Qasioun overlooking Damascus.

Mount Qasioun is home to the army’s largest encampment for artillery and missile systems Damascus has ever known.

The planned rebel infiltration, which could have taken the army by surprise, was thwarted by a last-minute military intelligence tip-off.

The army has since braced for defending Damascus from surprise attack either by the rebels or by outside forces like NATO’s.

It created what it codified as “the four walls.”

The walls go from the city center outward to the frontlines in the Damascus suburbs.

The innermost wall is manned by the Republican Guard and tasked to protect Mount Qasioun proper.

The 4th Armored Division and the People’s Army, now fighting rebels on the outskirts of Damascus, or what is called “contiguous Rif Dimashq,” jointly man the second wall.

The People’s Army is in charge of the third wall.

Military intelligence is staffing the fourth and last wall all along the Rif Dimashq frontlines.

Two weeks ago, the regime ordered army command to initiate the preemptive battle for the city-governorate of Damascus and the belt of districts and sub-districts in Rif Dimashq.

The army’s plan this time is not to push the rebels back from areas they control, but to fence them in before finishing them off within a specified time frame.

The preemptive campaign will culminate with the recapture of the embattled Yarmouk camp, which is when the army will announce having ended all the opposition’s armed presence in the Damascus area and its environs…

Sharara wraps up:

“According to sources close to the Syrian army, the envisioned Damascus battle scenario currently underway will take the following course: After Darayya, the armed forces turned to Moadamia. They will then head to Qatana, where rebels are few, and subsequently to the groves of Kfar Sousa and al-Liwan – two areas now being used by rebels to lob mortars at Damascus city.

“After clearing Kfar Sousa and al-Liwan, the armed forces will storm the neighborhood of al-Qadam to reach the top of the renowned Damascus thoroughfare known as al-Thalatheen Street adjacent to the Palestinian refugee camp of Yarmouk and the districts of al-Hajar al-Aswad – all in the capital’s south.

“The Popular Army -- but not the regular armed forces -- will go into Yarmouk camp.”  

Age doesn’t matter anymore in Syria

Abu Sameh feeds the lamb and two sheep and dons his sleeveless jacket to set out

Abul-Izz (top) and Abu Sameh exchange pecks on the cheek before setting out on reconnaissance 

Gardening chores before the cup of tea

In war, the elders give the orders while the young do the fighting and die.

Not so in the Syria war, now into its third year.

There, two spry and energetic elders have joined the young in fighting Assad regime forces at the risk of dying.

The pair are a sexagenarian known by his nom de guerre, Abu Sameh, and his friend, who goes by the assumed name of Abul-Izz.

Abul-Izz is dubbed “شيخ المقاتلين” (“Dean of Fighters”) because he is about to move into the septuagenarian bracket.

As Free Syrian Army members, Abu Sameh and Abul-Izz, aka the Dean of Fighters, meet at the break of dawn every morning for a routine joint patrol to scout out the peripheries of their community.

Theirs is one of a belt of rebel-controlled communities to the northeast and south of Damascus.

Speaking on camera to Aljazeera reporter Mahmoud al-Shami in Rif Dimashq governorate, Abu Sameh says he decided to take up arms against the regime after its forces “took me from home together with my children. They arrested us, starved us and burnt down our home. They stabbed my son to death and a rocket killed my grandson.”

The minute-plus video filmed by Aljazeera shows Abu Sameh going about his daily routine. He starts by feeding his lamb and two sheep before donning a sleeveless black jacket, picking up his rifle and walking down the alleyways to fetch Abul-Izz from his home.

Abul-Izz’s jacket and rifle match Abu Sameh’s.

After exchanging quick pecks on the cheek and walking down an alleyway side by side, the two men at the winter of life go separate ways to their respective lookouts on the fringes of their township.

Abu Sameh returns to his dwelling on completion of the day’s reconnaissance mission. After some gardening chores, he starts an antiquated bucket of fire to boil a rusted teakettle.

After defeating age, he calmly sips his “cuppa” to the staccato of gunfire and thuds of explosions in the distance (see the video below).

Pro-Assad daily expects “new gory chapter”

Syria's 14 provinces or governorates

On the day the Syrian opposition said it deferred a decision on forming a government-in-exile at its meeting in Istanbul, a newspaper close to Syria’s regime was anticipating an imminent and gory government campaign to jettison rebels from three of Syria 14 provinces: Damascus, “Rif Dimashq” (or Damascus suburbs) and Homs.   

The opposition said in a statement, “After studying the proposals and after deliberation on the question of creating an interim government, we decided to set up a five-member committee tasked with consulting with the forces of the revolution, the Free Syrian Army and friendly countries.”

The panel – which includes among others, National Coalition chief Moaz el-Khatib, Syrian National Council head George Sabra and former SNC leader Burhan Ghalioun -- would also be tasked with exploring the extent of Arab and international political and financial commitments needed to make an interim government viable.

The opposition is due to meet again on January 28 in Paris, along with representatives of some 20 countries that back the revolt against President Bashar al-Assad.

But Assad himself won’t be holding back meantime.

According to al-Akhbar daily, his mouthpiece in Beirut, it’s now “back to the battlefront.”

The paper explains, and I paraphrase in part:

In light of fresh reports about root changes in the Syrian army’s accomplishments and operations, and as a new round of diplomacy spurred by forces hostile to Syria gathers pace, fear of a bloodier conflict is mounting.

Syria is moving towards a new phase, politically and on the ground. The external diplomatic ambiance does not augur an impending settlement.

Lakhdar Brahimi urged “real change” in Syria, but failed to win concessions from either the regime or the opposition.

On the ground, the regular army’s efficacy has been going from strength to strength since the collapse of the rebels’ “Damascus foray.”

Several sources confirm Military Intelligence played a key role in the army’s recent successes in the Damascus suburbs and the Homs area.

After a reassessment of the situation, decisions were made to forsake efforts deemed futile. As a result, it was decided to abandon certain positions and not to engage in military confrontations in a range of areas, chiefly in the North.

The endeavors of players hostile to the Syrian regime are now focused on:

-- Lifting the Syrian National Coalition’s morale and lobbying for an interim government with promises of political and financial help.

-- Renewing the attempt to centralize the armed opposition under a single military command.

-- Putting on ice the issue of al-Nusra Front in the hope that all rebel groups would close ranks, particularly in the rural areas of Idlib and Aleppo.

-- Compensating for the “Damascus foray” fiasco with high-visibility blasts targeting regime political figures or a military push that would expand rebel control of this or that area.

On the battleground, reports from Damascus say regime forces will try to regain full control of the provinces of Damascus, Rif Dimashq and Homs. The implication is that military operations are expected to stretch from Eastern Ghouta southward to Qusayr and villages in the Homs rural area. The outcome of these confrontations will have far-reaching repercussions in the next stage.

Given the persisting internal split and intensifying outside pressures, Syria has a rendezvous with a new bloodstained chapter.