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| Map by the Institute for the Study of War |
Russia five weeks ago blocked the draft text of a UN
Security Council declaration of alarm over the blockade of Qusayr (see
my June 2 post).
Within days, the town close to the Syrian-Lebanese
border fell to the combined forces of the Syrian regime and Iran’s Lebanese
Hezbollah.
This week, Russia blocked the draft text of a UN
Security Council declaration of grave concern about the civilians
trapped in the besieged city of Homs.
This probably means Moscow expects regime and
Hezbollah forces to imminently route opposition rebels from Syria’s third
largest city, which they have been pummeling for nearly 10 days.
Regime and Hezbollah forces control
parts of Homs, while several neighborhoods in the center are opposition
strongholds.
Council
statements must be agreed unanimously.
Australia and Luxembourg circulated in the council
last Wednesday this
draft statement on Homs, which Moscow obstructed the next day:
The
members of the Security Council express their grave concern about the estimated 2,500
civilians trapped in Homs as a result of the recent heavy fighting.
The
members of the Security Council call upon the Syrian Government to facilitate
immediate, safe and unhindered access, in accordance with the United Nations
guiding principles of humanitarian assistance, for relevant humanitarian,
including UN, actors, to reach civilians in Homs, in urgent need of assistance,
in particular, medical assistance.
The
members of the Security Council call upon all parties in Syria to do their
utmost to protect civilians, including allowing them to leave Homs and
avoid civilian casualties, recalling the primary responsibility of the Syrian
Government in this regard. They emphasize that those responsible for
violations of applicable international law will be held accountable.
Russia’s UN Mission
said it proposed an alternative statement, which called for immediate access to
Homs as well as the predominantly Shiite government-controlled towns of Nubul
and Zahra that opposition fighters are seeking to take.
An eye-opener on the
regime’s renewed offensive in Homs is a news analysis by the Institute for the
Study of War authored by Elizabeth O’Bagy, which you can read
in full here.
It states in part:
Although
the opposition is thoroughly entrenched in parts of Homs city, much of the
countryside has been cleared of rebel presence and the frequency of government
checkpoints has grown…
Activists
in Homs city said all cellular lines were cut early on June 29 before airplanes
pounded rebel-held districts in the city. Before government troops could
advance, intense shelling with artillery, mortars, and tanks followed the
two-day-long air campaign.
Throughout
the week, rebel forces have engaged in intense clashes with government troops
in Khalidiya, Hamidiya and the Old City. Government forces are attempting to
push into rebel-held districts from all sides, and are choking rebel supply
lines into the city…
"This
is the worst campaign against the city since the revolution began," said
an activist in the rebel-held old quarter of the city. Rebel commanders
reinforced this message, adding that the regime has significantly accelerated
its operations in Homs province in the past week, and has brought substantial
forces to bear, aided by both air superiority and Iranian, Hezbollah, and Iraqi
irregular forces.
Although
rebel fighters are sufficiently entrenched in Homs to ensure a prolonged fight
for the city, the opposition currently lacks the requisite arms and supplies to
hold off the offensive for an extended period of time.
The
delaying action in Homs is strategically significant because it gains the
opposition time in Aleppo, but if the regime is able to consolidate its hold in
Homs city and the countryside, it may be able to secure its lines of
communication in ways that make its ultimate offensive in Aleppo more
effective.
The
factor that will most limit the regime’s ability to redeploy assets from Homs
to Aleppo will be holding cleared terrain, which can be time consuming and
troop intensive.
In
addition to ongoing operations, the Syrian government has also been attempting
to shore up its military success in Homs province by repopulating the towns and
villages that come under regime control with Alawites.
In
al-Qusayr, citizens from the 23 neighboring Alawi villages have been encouraged
to relocate in al-Qusayr into the homes of those who fled during the fighting.
This has also been seen in other predominantly Sunni towns…
By
resettling Alawites into formerly Sunni villages and towns, the Syrian
government is attempting to create new demographic realities that help ensure
that the countryside does not fall again into rebel hands. Moreover,
surrounding key cities with supportive communities allows the Syrian government
to use these villages as a base for staging operations against remaining rebel
strongholds and helps create conditions more conducive to regime victory in
Homs city itself…
Overall,
the Syrian government’s campaign in Homs sheds light on two important markers
of overall regime capability: its difficulty with launching sequential
campaigns without an operational pause, as well as the challenges it faces from
launching multiple, simultaneous offensives in Aleppo, Homs, and Damascus in
ways that protract each fight…
With the battle for
Homs raging on, the Syrian National Coalition yesterday elected Ahmad Jarba,
44, as its new president after a close runoff vote held in Istanbul.
Jarba, who represents
the faction of veteran secular dissident Michel Kilo and has Saudi connections,
obtained 55 votes – three more than defeated businessman Mustafa Sabbagh,
Qatar’s pointman in the opposition.
The 114 members of the
coalition also elected three vice presidents -- Suhair Atassi, Farouk Tayfur
and Salem Muslit.
Badr Jamous was voted
secretary general of the umbrella organization officially recognized by the
Arab League and dozens of states and organizations as the legitimate representative
of the Syrian people.
