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| Press clipping dated Monday, 13 June 1949 |
By Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi
Arabia’s authoritative political analyst, author and kingpin of the impending Al Arab TV
news channel, writing in
Arabic today for the mass circulation newspaper al-Hayat
When the term “Shiite Crescent” was coined a few
years back, it was meant to warn of Iranian expansionism across the Levant.
Nowadays, after the Big Powers’ defeat in the Qusayr
battle, Shiite fundamentalism is basking in all the glory of triumph.
With the resulting enlistment of hundreds of Iraqi Shiite
volunteers in the war overtly championed by Iran, the Crescent is liable to
evolve into a political axis stretching from Tehran to Beirut via Baghdad and
Damascus.
The Iranian Oil Ministry will pull out old maps from
its drawers to build the pipeline to pump Iranian oil and gas from Abadan (across
Iraq) to Tartus.
The Iranian Ministry of Roads and Transportation will
dust off the national railways authority’s blueprints for a new branch line
from Tehran to Damascus, and possibly Beirut,
Why not? The wind is blowing in their favor and I am
not making a mountain out of a molehill.
Tehran has been mulling and airing such projects for
years without actually starting them.
But she will, once she settles the Syria war in her
favor. It is only natural for her to consolidate victory on the ground by
blending her triumphant axis in a singular political, economic and military
network.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader or Guardian
Jurist of Iran, will realize his dream of delivering his sermon from the pulpit
of Umayyad Mosque in
Damascus, announcing the attainment of Islamic unity he has long promised.
He will then pompously step down from the pulpit to stroke
the forehead of a wheelchair-bound Damascene boy, signaling that forgiveness is
the attribute of the strong.
He will then stand next to a group of Syrian Sunni ulema wearing white turbans.
There are lots of them, in the mould of Mufti Ahmad Hassoun,
ready to oblige.
He will shake and raise their hands as camera clicks
and flashlights capture the historic moment.
The Guardian Jurist will promise that his next prayer
– or his successor’s. if he is sufficiently humble – will be in Jerusalem.
But he won’t mention the Golan. He knows the Russians
are now the key component of the UN monitoring force separating Israeli and
Syrian forces on the Heights.
Because Takfiris
are still mounting desperate operations here and there, he realizes that Syrian
troops and Hezbollah fighters are busy keeping the peace in predominantly Sunni
cities, towns and townships.
In that afternoon, a huge reception will be held in a
newly rehabilitated Damascus palace still showing the scars of war to mark the
signing of a mutual defense pact by the presidents of Iran, Iraq, Syria and
Lebanon.
The Guardian Jurist will stand wreathed in smiles in
the background, perhaps in awe at the likely appearance of the Hidden Imam to bless
the agreement.
We turn southward to Riyadh and find the capital calm
and dusty but concerned the battle was settled in favor of Bashar al-Assad and
his partners.
Riyadh is conscious the clean sweep is not Bashar’s but
that of Iran and the old Khomeini scheme.
Bashar becomes the representative of Vali e-faqih
in Damascus.
Riyadh is also alarmed by Iranian activity in its surrounding
area.
It fears for Bahrain. The Houthis have won uncontested
control of more than half the old North Yemen. South Yemen, Saudi Arabia’s
traditional ally, is being gradually eaten away by Iran.
Gulf unity plans have dissipated. Some Gulf countries
are keen to flatter Iran so as to preserve a modicum of their national sovereignty.
The Arab common market and Fertile Crescent idea
evaporated and with it the dream of resurrecting the Hejaz Railway that ran
from Istanbul to Holy Mecca across Syria and Jordan.
Even the Europeans are buying the Iranian oil flowing
through the Abadan-Tartus pipeline. They are also thinking of linking the
European Gas Network with its Iranian counterpart. They have forgotten all
about sanctions because the world always prefers to deal with winners.
On the Arab Gulf home front, young men are seething.
They feel their governments let them down by failing to face up to the Iranian
stratagem. The young men are in a sectarian tinderbox and buckling under
economic stress. Extremism is rampant and the security services are busy
hunting down extremist groups.
A nightmare, don’t you think?
That’s why I believe Saudi Arabia expressly will not
allow Iran to win in Syria.
Iranian presence there proved a burden from the day
Hafez al-Assad sealed his alliance with Iran’s Islamic Revolution as soon as it
took over power 40 years ago.
Whereas the Syrian regime’s muscle under Hafez left a
margin of balance and independence in the partnership, his son submitted
totally to the Iranians and Hezbollah.
It is thanks to them Bashar is still alive and ruling
a country in ruin. Instead of being their partner, he has become their subordinate.
The implication is that Iran’s presence in Lebanon
and Syria now constitutes a clear threat to Saudi Arabia’s national security,
and Turkey’s as well.
Consequently, Saudi Arabia must do something now,
albeit alone. The kingdom’s security is at stake.
It will be good if the United States joined an
alliance led by Saudi Arabia to bring down Bashar and return Syria to the Arab
fold. But this should not be a precondition to proceed.
Let Saudi Arabia head those on board.
Let us put aside any misgivings about sequels of the Arab
Spring, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey’s ambitions.
Let the objective be to bring down Assad fast.
The objective is bound to draw together multiple
forces ranging from the Anbar tribes to Hamas to Egypt’s Brothers to Tunisia to
the Gulf Countries.
That would entice Turkey to partake in the alliance. France
could follow. And whether the United States does or does not breeze in is
inconsequential. After all, it’s our battle and our security. U.S. security is
not on the line.
