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| The crackdown |
Egypt’s security forces, acting on the instructions
of the military-backed interim administration, yesterday stormed and disbanded
the two sit-ins in Cairo’s Nahda Square and near Rabaa al-Adawiya mosque.
Muslim Brotherhood supporters set up the two protests
camps six weeks ago to demand the reinstatement of ousted President Mohamed
Morsi.
Scores of civilians and security forces were killed
or wounded in the crackdown on the two camps.
A month-long state of emergency was declared and
curfews imposed in Egyptian cities.
Looking ahead, leading Egyptian media figure Emad
Adeeb, writing for the
Cairo daily el-Watan, wonders:
1. Does clearing the protest camps put an end to the
crisis?
2. Does disbanding protesters in Nahda and Rabaa
foreclose new Brotherhood sit-ins elsewhere in Cairo or in the provinces?
3. More importantly, in my opinion, what effect will clearing
the two camps have on prospects of a negotiated political settlement between the
old and new regimes?
Usually, whenever a crisis reaches violence level and
political deadlock, chances are:
(a) The two sides realize there can be no winner or
loser in the circumstances, so better to negotiate. This would see the
authorities ditching the security option and the Brothers forsaking terrorist
behavior.
(b) The situation remains unchanged, meaning the two
sides continue playing the cat-and-mouse game of sit-ins and clear-outs.
(c) The more dangerous and costlier option is greater
bloodletting resulting from violent tit-for-tat by the government and the
Muslim Brotherhood.
This raises the question: How will the Muslim Brotherhood
leadership be reading what took place in Rabaa al-Adawiya and Nahda?
Foresight, a responsible attitude and the fear of God
are attributes liable to put pressure on the Brotherhood leadership to try and
pick up the pieces of the flare-up and urge their supporters to remain calm and
give time and space for political dialogue and rationalization to prevail so that
the country can be spared the risks of civil war.
Though most Brotherhood leaders have been summoned to
appear before the public prosecutor for questioning, it would be nonsensical if
they thought in terms of, “Why fear getting wet when drowning?”
The crisis of the sit-ins is over. But is Egypt’s?