The Geneva-2 watchword is “ceasefire”

From top: Assad, Milosevic and the Chateau de Rambouillet 

By Jamal Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia’s analyst, author and kingpin of the impending Al Arab TV news channel, writing in Arabic today for the Saudi-owned pan-Arab daily al-Hayat

You can assume the endeavor to end the Syrian people’s tragedy is wholehearted once you hear them talking at Geneva-2 of a binding ceasefire under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

The watchword is “ceasefire.” After that, they can talk ad nauseam of the need for a shared transitional government with full powers or for national elections next year in which everyone can stand.

The Syrian opposition would overburden itself, disharmonize internally and bicker with allies if it carped too much about the immortality of Assad running for a third term, or about the irrationality of a transitional government that includes people with blood on their hands.

At Geneva-2 – if it convenes at all in mid-month – the spotlight won’t be on the government and opposition delegations.

The spotlight will be on the U.S. secretary of state and Russian foreign minister. They will be doing the hard bargaining.

More exactly, the public eye will be on an American-Saudi-driven international stab at goading the Russians to the UN Security Council.

The Russians have been resisting this for two years while the Syrian people were being butchered. They, and the Iranians in tow, kept repeating: a political solution is the only way forward in Syria. They also kept extolling the merits of the June 2012 Geneva Agreement, which provides for the immediate cessation of armed violence in all its forms and the establishment of a transitional government.

Everyone is now transfixed by the word “negotiations,” when and where they would take place and how a transitional government comprising regime and opposition representatives would be set up.

But the cardinal provision in the Geneva Agreement –i.e. “the immediate cessation of armed violence in all its forms” – is being overpassed.

The regime does not want a ceasefire. The Damascus government and its allies know they can only survive by armed violence.

The regime dithered when it was whispered that a binding ceasefire is in the cards, which is why the Russians had to literally tug Damascus to the negotiating table.

To underscore the importance of a ceasefire for the political solution, we need to trace the Syria crisis back to its roots.

The crisis is not between eastern Syria and western Syria, or between two sects. The opposition, for instance, is not after winning a bigger share in parliament for Aleppo.

At the same time, Damascus is not after specific ministerial portfolios for people to draw parallels between Geneva-2 – if it ever convenes – to the meeting of rival Lebanese leaders in Taef in 1989.

The Syrian revolution is fundamentally the revolution of a national and multi-sectarian population striving for freedom in all governorates.

The population is not making sectarian or provincial demands. Like the Egyptians who flooded Tahrir Square before Hosni Mubarak’s resignation, the overwhelming majority of Syrians forgot all their differences to clamor for regime change, freedom and dignity.

A Syria ceasefire does not mean a pause for talks and the demarcation of frontlines between the sides. What you now have is a Syrian majority wanting to get rid of an oppressive regime and build a new Syria on the same landmass and within unaltered borders.

At Geneva-2, the Syrian regime will try to avoid this.

Not to be overthrown, it would propose a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution that keeps it in power.

It would want to exclude the so-called Takfiri forces it lured into the conflict in the first place.

It could perhaps request the eviction of foreign volunteers from Syrian soil or claim legitimacy to commit this individual or that to justice.

In a show of humility, or in order to waste time, it might even propose a national reconciliation assembly.

What is certain though is the regime will do everything in its power to wriggle out of committing to a binding cessation of armed violence in all its forms.

Something similar happened in early 1999 at Rambouillet, a commune in north-central France, which hosted talks (between then-Yugoslavia and a delegation representing the ethnic-Albanian majority population of Kosovo) on the Interim Agreement for Peace and Self-Government in Kosovo.

The Americans, Russians and Europeans participated in the talks at Rambouillet, much as they would at Geneva-2. They all knew then what the workable solution was, but they needed to go through the “peace process.”

They were familiar with the brutality and intransigence of Serbian and Yugoslavian leader Slobodan Milosevic. They knew him from the earlier 1992-1995 Bosnian War. They were aware the only way to convince him is by force.

He was a prototype of today’s Bashar al-Assad, who represents a sect instead of a population and fights for sectarian instead of national interests.

Like Milosevic, the only way to convince him is by force. Only when cruise missiles and airstrikes reach his bedroom, instead of the Syrian people’s heads, would Assad yield and negotiate.

The Russians invariably clone themselves. They were the ones who obstructed a workable and quick fix solution in Kosovo. They are doing the same in Syria now.

The Americans and Europeans had no choice back in 1999 but to get the Russians to Rambouillet and sanction an interim agreement, which did not last long but opened the door for NATO to do what it should have done from the beginning: air bombardment.

That’s the thing to do after Geneva-2 if the Friends of Syria want to end in earnest the Syrians’ suffering.

Assad cannot put up with a strict and binding ceasefire. Given the carnage and bloodshed to date, peaceful protests against his rule will erupt in every Syrian city and town the moment he commits to one. And he wouldn’t swallow today the mass protests he could not tolerate two years back.

The regime will breach the ceasefire without any doubt, just like Milosevic.

Geneva-2 having bound all sides to the ceasefire under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, everyone would then have to go back to the Security Council.

I expect the opposition’s National Coalition and the head of the Free Syrian Army’s chief of staff, Gen. Salim Idriss, to commit to such an agreement.

Commanders of the FSA and rebel brigades, including Jabhat al-Nusra, would be put on notice that they too would be bombed if they breached the ceasefire agreement.

I doubt Geneva-2 will be held at all -- short of a genuine about-face by Moscow, not Iran or Syria.

But just in case Geneva-2 is held, make sure to eyeball the watchword “ceasefire.”

Syria is cheating, says UN chief

Thursday night’s Statement attributable to the Spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Syria:

"The Secretary-General is gravely alarmed by reports of continued violence and killing in Syria, including shelling and explosions in various residential areas as well as armed clashes.  He condemns in the strongest terms the continued repression against the Syrian civilian population and violence from any quarter.   This situation is unacceptable and must stop immediately.

"The Secretary-General remains deeply troubled by the continued presence of heavy weapons, military equipment and army personnel in population centers, as reported by United Nations Military Observers, which is in contravention of the Syrian Government’s commitments to withdraw its troops and heavy weapons from these areas.  He demands that the Government of Syria comply with its commitments without delay.    

"The Secretary-General reminds all concerned parties, particularly the Government of Syria, of the need to ensure that conditions for the effective operation of the United Nations Military Observers are put in place immediately, including a sustained cessation of armed violence."

Syria trips up "blue berets" after "yellow vests"

Kofi Annan and Norway's Maj. Gen. Robert Mood

The Norwegian Army’s former Chief of Staff Major-General Robert Mood, 54, who was nominated to head the observers mandated by the UN Security Council to oversee implementation of a full cessation of armed violence by all parties in Syria has walked away and returned to Oslo.

Russia’s permanent UN representative tells Inner City Press that Mood is unprofessional for leaving Damascus, but ”there are other people.”

Susan Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, says new attacks by Syrian regime forces and their intensified bombardment of Homs "call into question the wisdom and viability" of sending a full UN ceasefire observer mission to Syria.

The Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani, says chances of Kofi Annan’s six-point plan for solving the Syria crisis "are no higher than three percent."

Mood took a team of 10 to Syria on April 5 and returned to Geneva on April 10 to brief Annan. He told NTB while in Geneva, “My main assignment has been negotiations with the (Syrian) government and military, where I discussed how we can get an observer force in place…

“We agree in principle that the army will withdraw, but the government is demanding clear commitments from the opposition. I think that both sides are plagued by a very high degree of mutual suspicion, and that it’s terribly difficult for them to cross that abyss.”

The Daily Star, Lebanon’s English-language daily, believes Gen. Mood took himself off from the UN observer mission to avoid becoming a “false witness” to the ongoing tragedy in Syria.

Also today, Lebanese political analyst Rajeh el-Khoury, who writes for the Beirut daily an-Nahar, suggests Mood opted out of “Mission Impossible” for not wanting to be “a witness who would see nothing untoward.”

And in his daily column for Saudi Arabia’s Asharq Alawsat, Egyptian political analyst and the Middle East’s pioneer talk show host Imad Adeeb is at a loss to explain how the Arab League, the UN secretary-general, the UN Security Council and Kofi Anan can believe -- “even for a split second” – that Damascus would cease armed violence against civilians.

The Daily Star

In the opinion of The Daily Star editorial writer:

“With the first of the UN observers having arrived to Syria, and regime violence showing no sign of abating, it is becoming apparent that the Security Council mission has little to no purpose.

Since the ‘ceasefire,’ backed by the United Nations, came into effect Thursday, activists say around 55 people, mostly civilians, have been killed across the country, with Monday bringing news of continued shelling in several cities.

Over the last 13 months there have been a multitude of appeals and recommendations to President Bashar al-Assad, from a variety of international and regional bodies and institutions, all of them ignored and manipulated as a method of biding time and extending the bloodshed.

It appears that this UN mission, sold as an integral part of Kofi Annan’s six-point plan, is more of the same, and perhaps even more dangerous: masking as it does the real extent of the violence and killings, with the observers on a guided tour of the country’s calm spots, having been warned that they bear responsibility for their own safety should they stray from the sightseeing tour.

The mystery of the missing mission chief – Norwegian Gen. Robert Mood, who arrived in Damascus two weeks ago, only to return to Oslo with an apparent vow of silence, and who has now been replaced by Moroccan Col. Ahmed Himmiche – should be cause for concern. While the UN has insisted there is no problem, it seems evident that Mood took umbrage with the extent of the mission’s reach in Syria, and its ability to have a real impact on the outcome of the ceasefire.

Again, as with the failed Arab League observer mission in January, the Syrian authorities are using this as an opportunity to bide their time, demanding details on the observers’ backgrounds and home countries.

And with their movement so restricted, the observers are merely false witnesses to the ongoing tragedy in Syria. Denied access to the worst hit cities and towns, or to the victims of government abuses, they will observe but a portion of the reality, and a warped one at that.

In order for the United Nations, and the wider international community, to preserve a shred of credibility and respectability, the observers would follow Mood’s route and abandon the mission and refuse to provide the regime with any more legitimacy. Otherwise they will share responsibility in the continued killings of innocent people.

By acting as the message-carriers for the Syrian regime, the UN observers are contributing to the farce of the entire resolution, passed at the weekend, which only seems to be covering up the crimes of the regime, and allowing government agents time to breathe.

It is crucial now for Mood to speak up, and to reveal exactly why he felt he could no longer head such a mission. This might allow for a greater understanding of the mission’s work, and its failings.”

Rajeh el-Khoury

In an-Nahar, Khoury says Mood quit probably to evade becoming a Norwegian duplicate of Mustafa al-Dabi, the controversial Sudanese general who headed last year’s failed Syria observer mission. He didn’t want the UN’s “blue berets” to face the same breakdown as the “yellow-vested” Arab League observers.

“Seeing how Syria ‘reads’ the observer mission mandate, Mood opted out. He doubtless realized he was on ‘Mission Impossible’ and that conditions set by the regime would turn him into ‘the witness who would see nothing untoward.’”

Damascus, says Khoury, wants the UN observers to borrow its eyes instead of using their own to scrutinize the situation on the ground. It also wants to vet the monitors and their nationalities, “hoping they all turn out to be Russian, Iranian and Chinese.” Consequently, “the blue berets are set to crash where the yellow vests crashed before.”

Imad Adeeb

After wondering how Ban Ki-moon, Annan and the Security Council could believe – albeit for a moment – that Damascus would stop its crackdown unconditionally and begin “a political honeymoon” with the opposition, Adeeb writes:

“We are watching a game to buy time. It is the game played by Saddam Hussein in Iraq apropos the search for weapons of mass destruction. It is the game played by Muammar Gaddafi concerning the cessation of the civil war in Libya. It is also the game being played – artfully—by Iran against the International Atomic Energy Agency and the West over its nuclear program…

“Sine the U.S. presidential elections are looming and France, Russia, China and the United Kingdom are busy with past, present or future ballots or with such issues as unemployment, energy prices, European debt and the value of the dollar,” the bloodbath in Syria will prolong.

“This has no precedent in post-World War II history,” Adeeb notes “except for Mobutu’s killings in Zaire and the genocide perpetrated by the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia.”

The U.S. draft resolution for Syria truce monitors

The United States circulated late Thursday a draft resolution that would have the UN Security Council "authorize an advance element of up to 30 unarmed military observers to liaise with the parties in Syria and to begin to report on the implementation of a cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties."

The draft, quoted hereunder in its present form, is unlikely to be adopted (maybe later today) without amendments:

"The Security Council,

Recalling its Presidential Statements of 3 August 2011, 21 March 2012 and 5 April 2012 and its Press Statement of 1 March 2012,

Recalling as well General Assembly resolutions A/RES/66/253 of 16 February 2012 and A/RES/66/176 of 19 December 2011, as well as Human Rights Council resolutions S/16-1, S/17-1, S/18-1, 19/1, and 19/22,

Expressing its gravest concern at the crisis in Syria which has resulted in a serious human rights crisis and a deplorable humanitarian situation, and expressing its profound regret at the death of many thousands of people in Syria,

Condemning the widespread, systematic, and gross violations of human rights and fundamental freedoms by the Syrian authorities, and recalling that those responsible for human rights violations shall be held accountable,

Noting the Syrian government’s commitment on 25 March 2012 to implement the six-point proposal of the Joint Special Envoy of the United Nations and the League of Arab States, and to implement urgently and visibly its commitments, as it agreed to do in its communication to the Envoy of 1 April, to (a) cease troop movements towards population centers, (b) cease all use of heavy weapons in such centers, and (c) begin pullback of military concentrations in and around population centers, and to implement these in their entirety by no later than 10 April 2012,

Noting the assessment by the Envoy that on 12 April 2012 the Syrian government had started partially to implement its commitments as outlined in (a), (b), and (c) above, as stated in the Syrian government’s letter of 11 April 2012, and echoing the Envoy’s call for an immediate, full, and indisputable implementation by the Syrian government of its commitments in their entirety, as set forth in its Presidential Statement of 5 April 2012, so as to enable a sustained cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties,

Reaffirming its strong commitment to the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Syria, and to the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter,

1. Reaffirms its full support for all elements of the Envoy’s six-point proposal aimed at bringing an immediate end to all violence and human rights violations, securing humanitarian access and facilitating a Syrian-led political transition leading to a democratic, plural political system, in which citizens are equal regardless of their affiliations, ethnicities or beliefs, including through commencing a comprehensive political dialogue between the Syrian government and the whole spectrum of the Syrian opposition, stresses in particular the Syrian government’s responsibility to ensure freedom of movement throughout the country for journalists and to respect the right of the Syrian people to demonstrate peacefully as legally guaranteed and to freedom of association and reiterates its call for the urgent, comprehensive, and immediate implementation of all aspects of the Envoy’s six-point proposal;

2. Demands the Syrian government implement visibly its commitments in their entirety, as it agreed to do in its communication to the Envoy of 1 April, to (a) cease troop movements towards population centers, (b) cease all use of heavy weapons in such centers, and (c) begin pullback of military concentrations in and around population centers, and demands further that the Syrian government withdraw its troops and heavy weapons from population centers to their barracks;

3. Calls upon all parties in Syria immediately to cease all armed violence in all its forms and to cease all arbitrary detentions, abductions, and torture;

4. Expresses its intent, provided a cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties exists, to establish immediately a United Nations supervision mission in Syria to monitor such a cessation of violence and to support the full implementation of the Envoy’s six-point proposal, on the basis of a formal proposal from the Secretary-General, which the Security Council requests to receive by 13 April 2012;

5. Demands that the Syrian government (a) facilitate the deployment of the number of unarmed military observers, civilian personnel, and the capabilities that the Secretary-General assesses are required to credibly and effectively implement the parties’ compliance with the cessation of violence and other relevant provisions of the Envoy’s six-point proposal, (b) ensure full and unimpeded freedom of movement throughout Syria for all mission personnel, including access, without prior notice, to any place or establishment that the mission deems necessary to carry out its mandate, (c) guarantee the safety of the mission and other United Nations personnel without prejudice to the freedom of movement and access, (d) guarantee the mission’s ability to interview, freely or in private, any individual in any region of Syria, and to receive communications from any individual, group of individuals or body in Syria, as well as the unobstructed communications both within the mission and between the mission and United Nations headquarters and (e) grant immediate access to its territory to all mission personnel and equipment;

6. Decides to authorize an advance element of up to 30 unarmed military observers to liaise with the parties and to begin to report on the implementation of a cessation of armed violence in all its forms by all parties, and demands that the Syrian government ensure the advance element is able to carry out its functions according to the terms set forth in paragraph 5; 

7. Requests the Secretary-General to report immediately to the Security Council any obstructions to the effective operation of the mission, by any party, in connection with the provisions in paragraph 5 above, on the basis that such obstructions would impede the mission’s ability to implement its mandate effectively and could give rise to its withdrawal;

8. Reiterates its call for the Syrian authorities to allow immediate, full and unimpeded access of humanitarian personnel to all populations in need of assistance, in accordance with international law and guiding principles of humanitarian assistance and calls upon all parties in Syria, in particular the Syrian authorities, to cooperate fully with the United Nations and relevant humanitarian organizations to facilitate the provision of humanitarian assistance;

9. Expresses its determination, in the event that the Syrian government does not implement its commitments to consider further measures as appropriate;

10. Requests the Secretary-General to report to the Council on the implementation of this resolution on [xxApril];

11. Decides to remain seized of the matter."